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genocide is not just something that happens in the past

It happened like last week too. The entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh fled the region out of fear of massacres.

One of the most chilling things you realize as you grow up and attain even a degree of political and historical awareness, is that genocide is not just something that happens in the past. It doesn't happen because an evil army materializes and does bad things until the good guys save the day. It's something carried out, in the open, with the support or at the very least indifference of people around you. It'll happen on TV, in social media posts, for everyone to see. They will observe it and their reactions will range from apathy to cruel elation. Then they'll turn off their TVs or put away their phones and go shopping.

They may even make treats out of it, like how southerners used to (CW: death, gore)

spoiler

collect knucklebones and other grisly relics from lynching victims

, or how some edgy movies, shows, and/or video games are likely to be made of recent atrocities at a later time (with the sympathy typically reserved for the atrocity-bringer in a shoot-and-cry format).

it will be the beginning of the end for them if they do.

Please don't hang too much hope on this. The counter-offensive will likely be absolute barbarism. Israel has an enormous military advantage. I don't know what will happen but it's very likely that Palestine's position will be drastically worse when this is over. I am sure they will fight with valiant creativity and unimaginable bravery, but I need you all to be ready to keep going if this results in a crushing defeat.

Israel has the unlimited backing of the great shaytan and unlike Ukraine is not utilised to grind down the military of a geopolitical rival. I hoped that the hostages taken by Hamas might deter any extreme excesses from the IDF but the unrelenting air strikes indicate that the Israeli government is more than willing to make a couple hundred martyrs.

They basically have to go in. The Palestinians have taken hundreds of Israeli prisoners, high value military ones too, and humiliated Israel on the international stage. It would be the end of Netanyahu’s government to do anything besides crank the war crimes to 11.

Israel invading Gaza with ground troops would provoke a response from Hezbollah and probably some other nearby nations

I'm not holding my breath on it.

this operation was likely planned years in advance and the speed and precision of Hamas’ actions illustrate this. these people were born at war w their occupiers, their whole lives have led up to this moment of organized resistance. critical support to Palestinians in their efforts against settler-colonialism, genocide, and imperialism. we must not wring our hands over whether this will end badly for Palestine, we may not know the end for years.

a healthy amount of optimism will do us well: urban warfare is costly and dangerous for the aggressor, Hezbollah and Iran will likely intervene if IDF forces invade Gaza, western arms and aid are tied up in Ukraine, IDF soldiers (like US soldiers) are used to bullying civilians and poorly armed rebels so an organized, moderately-equipped Hamas is something they’re unfamiliar with

I am currently very glad that I largely avoid my family. Likely terminal levels of hitler particles

I think at this point they're humiliated enough to give it the old college try. However, the current strategy simply appears to be aerial bombardment in an effort to flatten every square inch of Gaza.

This is going to kick off another enormous refugee crisis, primarily into Egypt.

fr. pretty sure theyre just gonna bombard it and use the 300k troops to strangle refugees

Also any video that emerges of Israeli soldiers gunning down Gazans will trigger an explosion in other Arab countries, from what I can gather from my relatives in the region (I dont want to specify which country but its a US ally) they've never seen a mood ike this, not even 2011, cops are out in force, people in the streets are shouting and yelling about Palestine seemingly at random and mosques are full of people talking about what's going on, which is strange cause it's no where near Friday, the Arab world is about to fuckin explode

According to Wikipedia the IDF has about 169k active troops and 465k reserves. 300k troops would be 50% of all Zionist armed forces, assuming total mobilization. Even then, that only leaves half the IDF to stare down Hezbollah in the north, keep a lid on the West Bank, and so forth.

Given how difficult it would be to call up every single reservist in 3 days, I think it's more likely that 300k is the total number of mobilized IDF troops, not just those preparing to beseige Gaza.