Damage to an undersea cable could severely disrupt internet routes between the United States and Taiwan, Japan or the Philippines and force traffic onto slower detours, according to a new report.
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Researchers at the China Strategic Risks Institute published a recent report (opens pdf) for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission warning that Beijing is building the means to sabotage trans-Pacific cables without tipping into open conflict. The commission released the report in September after a string of cable incidents around Taiwan that included a Chinese work barge suspected of damaging a line to the Matsu Islands in March.
The report's vulnerability index scores cables higher if they land in Taiwan or cross waters Beijing claims. Shallow, crowded shipping lanes can add risk too, since a dragged anchor there can pass for an accident.
Four of the 10 highest-scoring cables are still under construction, including Google's TPU and Meta's ORCA. The authors of the report said Chinese-free ownership leaves Beijing with little reason to spare the cables in the event of a targeted attack.
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A geopolitical conflict over Taiwan that severed all four cables running directly between the U.S. and Taiwan could leave the broader trans-Pacific network with as little as 2% spare capacity at peak demand (see: China Could Coerce Taiwan by Hacking Comms, Think Tank Warns).
Losing only two cables, JUNO between Japan and the U.S. and the Pacific Light Cable Network, could push peak demand as much as 70% past the capacity operators have switched on.
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