[Op-ed by Petr Čermák, Research Fellow at the Association for International Affairs focusing on Western Balkan politics.]
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During his visit to Belgrade in July, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis joined Serbian President Aleksandar President Vucic in criticising the EU’s ambivalent approach to enlargement, mentioning that he “does not understand at all why Serbia is not in [the] Schengen [Area] yet”.
This was neither a slip of the tongue nor a rhetorical misstep on Babis’s part. In his address to Czech ambassadors in Prague at the end of August, Babis paid unusually significant attention to supporting Western Balkan enlargement and criticising EU policy, while reiterating that the Western Balkans, including Serbia, should have joined the passport-free Schengen Area long ago.
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Yet the idea of a rapid expansion of the Schengen Area is not only politically unfeasible and technically impracticable but is, above all, dangerous. It completely overlooks Russia’s ties to Serbia, which maintains a visa-free regime with Moscow despite European pressure, turning Belgrade into a convenient hub for Russians in Europe. The ongoing investigation into the hybrid attack in Leipzig is one more piece of evidence indicating that Serbia is being used not only as a transit country but also as a base for Russian operations directed against Europe.
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Delays [of membership of other Schengen countries that previously joined the bloc] resulted from both the technical complexity of the process and the political reluctance of certain EU members. Integrating into the Schengen system and securing complex land and sea borders presented a technical and administrative challenge for the new members.
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By calling for the immediate admission of the Western Balkans to Schengen, Babis is turning the logic of the entire process upside down. Under his proposal, states should become part of the zone immediately, regardless of their technical and institutional readiness.
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While even the harshest EU sceptics did not question Croatia or Romania’s pro-Western orientation, fundamental questions remain about the true foreign policy orientation of some Western Balkan states and their willingness to align their policies with Europe.
This issue is particularly evident in Serbia, which has maintained close ties with Russia and China as part of a foreign policy that seeks to balance competing geopolitical interests, while remaining reluctant to bring its policies fully into line with those of Europe.
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A significant number of Russians have also settled permanently or temporarily in Serbia, which is not only easily accessible to them but also culturally relatively close. While the Serbian border police registered nearly a million single entries by Russians between 2022 and 2024, estimates put the number of Russians residing in Serbia long term at around 100,000. The Serbian government has accommodated this trend with generous residence permits and citizenship grants, in some cases through accelerated procedures “in the state interest” or even to Russians under sanctions.
What statistics fail to capture is the political profile of this new Russian diaspora. It is presumed to be a mix of pragmatically minded Russians, many of whom are successfully building businesses in Serbia; anti-Putin exiles; and prominent figures directly linked to Putin. The proportion of these individual groups remains unknown, and judging by recorded intelligence activities targeting the Russian opposition in Belgrade, Moscow is seeking that answer as well.
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Furthermore, Serbia is not merely a venue for Russian intelligence services to monitor their own opposition, but also a safe staging ground for operations elsewhere in Europe. For instance, BIRN recently documented the Russian recruitment of volunteers in Serbia for the war against Ukraine, as well as training centres for hybrid operations in Moldova. As-yet unconfirmed reports of a Serbian citizen’s involvement in a hybrid attack in Leipzig and the use of Serbia for the transit of Russian operatives provide further evidence of Serbia’s role in Russian activities on European soil.
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Serbia may have its place in the EU and Schengen someday, provided it genuinely desires membership and meets at least the basic political and security conditions. Ending its visa-free policy with Russia certainly ranks among them, regardless of the Czech prime minister’s disregard for the issue.
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