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submitted 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.


short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.

longish summary is below in the spoiler tags

longish summary

While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it's becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.

While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don't think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond "they aren't close to defeat or regime change". What has instead captured much of the world's attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I've seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran's military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran's naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.

The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be "closed"? Has Iran truly "closed" the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their "lives" and "families")? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran's military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.

If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): "An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are."


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 91 points 2 days ago

@Tervell@hexbear.net shared the best analysis of the material limits of the US military industrial complex I've seen since the newsmegas began in 2022.

My commentary below, but I strongly encourage people to click through and read the article in full.

spoilerThe distinction between practically infinite JDAMs and the finite stand off weapons, antiair interceptors, and radar/detections arrays is sorely misunderstood. All of the finite weapons are what allow the US to do what they're doing now with the current state of attrition. US bases in GCC countries are partially evacuated, there have been some fighter and tanker airframes down, both carrier strike groups are manageable threatened but active, and something like low hundreds of US casualties. This is more of an ass kicking than the US has gotten in a long time, but not terrible militarily when viewed in a vacuum.

However, as what Trump calls the "exquisite" class of materiel is consumed, then maintaining a meaningful tempo of operations will require higher risk approaches: use of JDAMs over Tomahawks, which requires closer approach/flyover of Iranian territory increasing the odds of more F35s getting shot down. Bigger holes in anti air systems, meaning more damage to existing soldiers and military assets on the ground in the GCCs/Israel, also more attrition of any larger concentrations of forces that would have to consolidate for any future ground operations. More damage to the air tankers needed to fling fighters from the CSG off the coast of Oman to Tehran. Either the US will have to accept higher casualty rates and damage, or meaningfully slow down the pace of operations in a war of attritoon where Iranian state survival alone is a strategic victory.

This attack on Iran has already blown years of what is functionally irreplaceable production in weeks. This war of choice is best a quagmire that will destroy large parts of the world economy, including America's, and is at worst a strategic defeat that will make the replacement of the Taliban with the Taliban look dignified. All of the above looks even worse in the context of America's medium term ability to do things in any other theatre, like supporting Ukraine or God forbid, fighting China. The opportunity cost is enormous.

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[-] glimmer_twin@hexbear.net 32 points 6 hours ago

Dude i can’t get over how stupid this kharg plan is. Like even if you take it, what do you gain? How will you get that oil out of the gulf??

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 21 points 6 hours ago

The plan is not to siege Kharg Island, but to take it immediately.

[-] MrPiss@hexbear.net 16 points 6 hours ago

It's literally on the other side of the persian gulf from the strait of hormuz. I don't know how they think they can safely get there under drone and missile fire. There's no safe way to get there and there's no safe way to hold it.

[-] HarryLime@hexbear.net 21 points 6 hours ago
[-] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 46 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

@iranin_arabic Translated from Arabic Urgent Alert Kuwait 🇰🇼 To the Allies of the United States In the event that the American enemy proceeds to target Iran's energy infrastructure, this will lead to the ignition of a full map of targets in the region.
⚠️ Energy and electricity infrastructure
⚠️ Water desalination facilities
Kuwait Al-Zour Water Desalination Complex
Al-Zour North Power Station

Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi · Everyone should leave the Persian Gulf region now. If Trump and Netanyahu strike, Iran's retaliation will be unprecedented and massive.

[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 24 points 6 hours ago

It's curious that Israeli facilities are not on that list. I suppose that leaves room for further escalation, but I doubt that the Israelis will give a shit about GCCs going thirsty

[-] SickSemper@hexbear.net 14 points 6 hours ago

First wave, so I assume they come later

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 19 points 6 hours ago

I've seen these floating around, with 4 sets of pictures (only one in your post). I don't know if these are real, but the Saudi 'Ras AL Khair' plant is first on the list, so the list does feel like something that the IRGC would put out.

[-] Pentacat@hexbear.net 16 points 6 hours ago

Israel will do the dirty work and Trump will pretend to be mad in the biggest way he can.

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 21 points 6 hours ago
[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 32 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Does anyone have details on what Ansar Allah has been doing during this war? I've heard a lot about Iran and Hezbollah, but I don't think I've heard much about Ansar Allah. Opening or threatening to reopen the front in Yemen would likely change a lot of calculus for KSA and UAE and force them divide their resources, on top of NATO having split resources should they blockade the Bab Al-Mandab again.

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 27 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

So far - nothing. Considering what they have endured in the past, it is really up to them if they get involved or not.

[edit] I mean, they are probably not enthusiastic about being part of an escalation, my guess is they will enter as a response to one of the GCC countries declaring war on Iran or something like that.

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 19 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

Yeah, I'm not trying to dictate to them, it's a weird situation and I know they likely still need time to recover. Forces in Aden are likely more vulnerable right now than they have been in a while given the fighting between the Saudi and UAE factions earlier this year, plus the UAE and KSA likely don't have the same ability to reinforce their agents like in the past due to the war on Iran. The flip side is that a lot of the land held by pro-GCC forces is flat, which would make it easier for any advances by Ansar Allah to be bombed.

I know there are a lot of STC-supporters that aren't happy with the STC being officially dissolved. I wonder if any of them could be convinced to switch sides. Now would be good time for that surprise.

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 12 points 6 hours ago

I mean, they are probably not enthusiastic about being part of an escalation, my guess is they will enter as a response to one of the GCC countries declaring war on Iran or something like that.

[-] SickSemper@hexbear.net 12 points 6 hours ago

Waiting to activate when necessary, I assume. There's been noise, rumors, and threats, but just implications so far, rather than action

[-] TalkingDuck@hexbear.net 21 points 7 hours ago

Iran so far has been trying to avoid any escalations and is just playing an eye for an eye. They might be holding back the Houthis as the response if/when KSA and UAE decide to directly engage in the war.

[-] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 48 points 7 hours ago

The UAE deserves to be sinked

🇦🇪🚨NEW: UAE says ceasefire no longer a priority as focus shifts to confronting Iran

🔸UAE Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, a senior member of the ruling family and a central architect of the country’s foreign policy, wrote on X today that UAE “will never be blackmailed by terrorists,” referring to the attacks from Iran.

🔸His comments come after Anwar Gargash, one of the UAE’s most influential foreign policy figures and diplomatic adviser to President Mohammed bin Zayed, stated that Abu Dhabi does not view an immediate ceasefire as the central objective, instead prioritizing “lasting security in the Arabian Gulf” in response to what he called “brutal Iranian aggression.”

➢ He said “our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire,” stressing the need to curb Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, drones, and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

➢ He said it is “inconceivable” to allow Iran to pose a “permanent state of threat” over the UAE and the Gulf.

🔸Gargash said Iran’s response is cementing Iran as a “central axis” in Gulf strategic thinking, adding that it will result in the “bolstering of our national capabilities and joint Gulf security” and “solidifying our security partnerships with Washington.”

https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2035811144854630642#m

[-] MrPiss@hexbear.net 22 points 6 hours ago

I've been wondering how long it will take for the GCC countries to cut their losses with the burgerreich. Like at what point do they realize that the US can't stop Iran and they need to face the new reality? Six months is my upper limit given how fast this is escalating and if it goes down to a simmer for a while.

[-] Stylistillusional@hexbear.net 29 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

The wealth and power of the royal families in the Gulf exist because of their relationship with the US. They have every incentive to stick with the US. Giving in to Iranian demands would mean the end of the patronage networks, within and without, that allows these royal families to maintain control.

[-] MrPiss@hexbear.net 16 points 6 hours ago

And before they were linked to the US they were a British protectorate. It doesn't need to be a full break from the US all at once and they'd still have oil money no matter what. This is just such an incredibly intense crisis that things that are currently foundational to the world order will strain and break in the coming weeks and months.

[-] sodium_nitride@hexbear.net 15 points 6 hours ago

The end of the petrodollar is worse for the GCC than it is for the US. The US will lose a significant portion of their financial firepower, but they still got the EU, UK and Japan to buy up debt. Not to mention, the US also got practice with dealing with less finance power through the trump tariffs.

The gulf states? Many don't even collect taxes properly. That's how reliant they are on petrodollar earnings.

[-] miz@hexbear.net 19 points 6 hours ago
[-] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 67 points 8 hours ago

⚡️🚨 Israeli Broadcasting Authority:

"Israel" is pushing towards a large-scale attack on Iranian energy facilities after the end of Trump's deadline.

At this rate the price of oil will be 200$ by next week's end

https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/2035795416470417500#m

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 46 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

Channel 12 revealed dramatic messages sent by the US administration to Israel, including the following key points: The timeline of the maneuver: The Americans informed Israel that the operational plans related to the Strait of Hormuz will take several weeks to implement, which necessarily means extending the war for additional weeks. Trump's strategy: Reports indicate that President Trump's direction does not lean towards rapid calming, but rather seeks to exploit the "oil and gas" file as a maximum pressure tool. Choking the Iranian regime: The American plan aims to turn the tables on Tehran; instead of using energy as an Iranian pressure card, Washington seeks to choke the regime from within through the energy sector, which may lead to accelerating its collapse. Summary of the situation: We are facing a shift in the American strategy from "containing escalation" to "economic and military settlement" through the gate of the Strait of Hormuz and energy resources.

Trump on Iran: You’ll soon find out what will happen with the ultimatum on the power stations – the result will be very good. There will be a total destruction of Iran, and it’s going to work out great. Source: Israeli Channel 13

[-] companero@hexbear.net 55 points 8 hours ago

Just take Leningrad, don't siege it. centrist

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 32 points 8 hours ago

Zerg rush the ~~Terrans~~ Strait of Hormuz.

[-] NephewAlphaBravo@hexbear.net 8 points 6 hours ago

kkkekkkekkke

[-] test_@hexbear.net 39 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

Choking the Iranian regime: The American plan aims to turn the tables on Tehran; instead of using energy as an Iranian pressure card, Washington seeks to choke the regime from within through the energy sector, which may lead to accelerating its collapse.

Are they playing chicken, hoping Iran won't destroy Israel's or the GCC's energy facilities in response?

[-] Self_Sealing_Stem_Bolt@hexbear.net 43 points 7 hours ago

Yes, this is white supremacy and western chauvanism on full display. It is literally unthinkable that somebody would stand up to the west. Its why you see DARVO in western media/talking points. Iran is the agressor because they wouldn't roll over and die. No amount of western agression is ever seen as agression. Only when someone strikes back does the agression start. Kinda like how westerners are taught that the Korean war started when they came down from the north to "attack the forces in the south". No mention of what forces, why they were there, and what they were doing.

[-] MrPiss@hexbear.net 39 points 8 hours ago

If true, the GCC's gas and oil fields will be leveled. There will be almost no fossil fuel production in the middle east. I really hope someone can get Trump to walk back because this shit will be bad. It's already going to be bad with what's already happened but still.

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 17 points 7 hours ago

They gutted the military of anyone who isn't willing to describe this as a holy war to bring back Jesus. Ain't no one going to talk these psychos down.

[-] MrPiss@hexbear.net 19 points 7 hours ago

I was thinking more of the capitalists or the deep state having a nice chat. Also, maybe him getting a visit from the heart attack gun and then disciplining Vance to end the war.

[-] supafuzz@hexbear.net 38 points 8 hours ago

I'm sure this will go great, like everything else they've tried

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 61 points 10 hours ago
[-] Self_Sealing_Stem_Bolt@hexbear.net 53 points 10 hours ago

Love the caption: Hes gone. 25th amendment.

Lmao yall didnt 25th biden when he was shitting his pants on tv and threatening to attack people who criticized him.

[-] MrPiss@hexbear.net 48 points 10 hours ago

This is the one time he's become somewhat impotent in his position as president. Usually he can jump between insane actions or bullshit scandals and he just doesn't have the endurance for this war. He's 79 years old and he just can't handle it.

[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 24 points 8 hours ago

The US and trump in particular does best when they have the initiative and room to maneuver/dissemble. Doing mad dog diplomacy isn't as fun when there are two other parties who are madder than you, forcing you to react to their uncomfortable escalations.

[-] SteamedHamberder@hexbear.net 44 points 10 hours ago

say-the-line-bart-1 Say the line, MSNBC

say-the-line-bart-2 Let’s see him wriggle his way out of this one

[-] Grapho@lemmy.ml 31 points 9 hours ago

~~It's joever~~

It's Don here

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 27 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)
[-] Infamousblt@hexbear.net 24 points 9 hours ago

What would be the purpose of a nuclear interceptor. Congrats you stopped the missile and irradiated your own people in the process! It's complete nonsense

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this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2026
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