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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 42 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

This may just be a feature of Iran's particular dual system of traditional armed forces coexisting with the IRGC - most of the Iranian military operations until now have been the work of the IRGC (who are presumably already in a state of high readiness given they keep lobbing missiles) but I guess now with more talk of a ground incursion and Trump's incessant Khargposting the regular army may be upping its readiness.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 82 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2083229124756115961

trump-drenched

Trump: Iran is doing very poorly, just in case you read incorrect stories, they're doing very very poorly-they're having a hard time. Their missiles have been largely-they have some left, they have some, but they have far fewer than they had four or five months ago. Their manufacturing capacity is... almost gone. The drone capacity is almost gone, they have very few. But they have some. We're in there 5 months, I know people like to say-because we're doing a much bigger job, a much more important job than we originally anticipated. We're in for 5 months and we have obliterated their military capacity. Again they've got some left, but soon they won't have some left.

Reporter: You said that they do have some capabilities left, should Americans be prepared for these back and forth attacks until Iran is simply unable to strike back?

Trump: They'll get weaker, they'll get weaker, they'll get stronger maybe...now, but they'll get weaker, and then they peter out-uhhhhh yeah sure, I think so.

https://xcancel.com/Midnight_Dasher/status/2083236752655876415

Special Uhhhhhh They'll Peter Out I Think Operation. The SUTPOITO

Operation They'll Get Stronger Maybe

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 83 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

https://archive.ph/1pytZ

US nears full withdrawal from Iraq as bases in Kurdistan region face attacks from Iran, proxies

Patriot air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne enemy equipment have already been removed, sources told Al-Monitor.

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The United States military has started to draw down its last remaining forces from Iraq stationed in the vicinity of Erbil airport in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, well-placed sources with close knowledge of the process confirmed to Al-Monitor. Patriot mobile air to surface air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne enemy equipment have already been removed from the military compound, the sources said, without providing further details. The pullout started last week and is ongoing, with the bulk of the US forces and their heavy equipment out, the sources said. “All” of the Patriot anti-missile batteries had been redeployed to an undisclosed destination, the sources said, adding that other defensive weapons systems remained in place as of the time of publication of this article. Regional officials described the pullout as “routine” and in line with the US commitment to withdraw all its forces from Iraq by a Sept. 30 deadline that was agreed with Baghdad.

However, coming amid sustained attacks by Iran and its Shiite proxy militias, and on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in particular, the withdrawal, especially of the Patriots, has left the Kurds feeling badly exposed.

neon-fell-for-it-evangelion

Centcom spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins declined to comment on any ongoing troop movements. Kurdistan Regional Government officials did not respond to Al-Monitor’s request for comment. While the systems were deployed to protect US forces, the Kurds have benefited immensely from the security umbrella as well. Erbil airport has come under constant attack from Iran and Iran-backed militias since the start of the Iran conflict in February, including this week. US interceptors successfully deterred at least 95% of those attacks, the sources said. The bulk of Iranian and militia attacks have targeted armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan region. However, the Erbil compound has also been targeted multiple times. The Patriots have an operational range of between 60 to 100 miles. Removing the Patriots is a double edged sword. One the one hand they defend ground troops, on the other they have become targets themselves, Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a New York-based consultancy, told Al-Monitor.

The US pull out will not necessarily spell an end to US Iraqi military cooperation with US Special Forces deployed at discrete low profile locations, Knights added. US forces in Iraq are particularly vulnerable due to Iraq’s shared border with Iran and the continued aggression of the Iran-backed groups that are actively engaged in the conflict hitting “enemy” targets in Iraq and in the Gulf. Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Al Zaidi, despite robust pledges to rein in the Iran-backed militias and disarm and demobilize them by Sept. 30 has so far failed to do so, as witnessed by their recent attacks against Saudi oil fields, prompting Saudi Arabia to overtly team up with US forces to carry out retaliatory strikes across Iraq this week.

The removal of the Patriots in advance of a near full withdrawal of US troops on the ground has raised further questions about US stockpiles of interceptors and how the US military is now prioritizing their deployment to protect troops elsewhere in the region. “The Kurdistan region is not a priority, the Gulf and Jordan clearly are,” one of the sources, speaking on strict condition of anonymity, said.

overstretched empire hours

A study published by the Center for International and Strategic Studies based in Washington shed light on the diminishing resources amid the breakdown of the US Iranian ceasefire and of the ensuing memorandum of understanding that was struck between the sides in May. Building on an earlier study that was issued in April when the ceasefire was reached showing that 55% of the Patriot stockpile had been lost, this week’s report noted that their numbers had gone down by a further 10%. The United States produces 183 of the interceptors per year.

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 65 points 2 days ago

https://archive.ph/1NOyc

Assault regiment commander ordered troops to fire on retreating comrades, media investigation alleges

Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of Ukraine's 225th Assault Regiment, allegedly ordered troops to open fire on retreating fellow soldiers, according to an investigation by the Ukrainian investigative outlet Texty.

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Ukrainian journalist Anna Kaliuzhna's investigation, published on July 30 in both text and video form, includes a voice message allegedly from Shyriaiev that was sent to one of the unit's chats while the regiment was fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast from late 2024 to early 2025. "A reminder to those referring to 'our own' — there are no 'our own,'" the voice, allegedly belonging to Shyriaiev, says. "There is only a specific request over the radio: ‘permission to move.' Everything else is the enemy. Anything that’s moving is the enemy. Anyone fleeing their positions is a deserter — and they’re the enemy too. Stick to this rule."

The voice note, sent to Kaliuzhna by multiple sources within the unit, is one example of the alleged use of "blocking forces," in which soldiers who retreat without orders are shot or systematically threatened with being shot, though the vast majority of such cases occur in the Russian army.

uh huh lea-resigned

love how even if this expose about how fucked up their fascist military is they still have to go "uh, but the Russians have it worse!"

Over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine, the practice, sometimes called "nullifying," first became notorious through its use by Russia's Wagner mercenary group during the battles for Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and has since become widespread across much of the Russian army. In addition to the voice message from Shyriaiev, the investigation includes accounts from several soldiers — some named and some speaking anonymously — who had served in the regiment. They described soldiers being threatened before assaults with being shot if they turned back. Soldiers quoted in the story, many of whom came from the regiment's Shkval prisoner battalion, also described systemic beatings, and the holding of soldiers against their will in makeshift basement prisons, in testimonies that resemble those in a similar investigation into the 425th Assault Regiment, better known as Skelia. Asked by the Kyiv Independent to comment on the specific allegations in this story, the 225th Regiment declined.

The 225th Assault Regiment — which fought as a battalion in Chasiv Yar before helping lead the lightning incursion into Kursk Oblast in 2024 — is one of the largest units of the Ukrainian military, having been expanded to at least 15 battalions. In autumn 2025, after also conducting cross-border raids into Russia's Belgorod Oblast, the unit was moved to the southern front line, where Russian forces were making rapid gains around the city of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian defenses in this area, held by undermanned and often unmotivated Territorial Defense brigades, were in a state of relative chaos when then-Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi sent in the 225th to stabilize the situation. Although reports emerged that an entire Territorial Defense brigade had retreated chaotically and that soldiers from the 225th had kidnapped Territorial Defense service members who had apparently been transferred to the regiment without their knowledge, the defense of the area around Huliaipole was successfully stabilized over the winter. In a preemptive Facebook post the day before Kaliuzhna's investigation was published, the regiment denied allegations that it had used blocking forces while fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The post acknowledged an incident involving a beating in the Shkval battalion, adding that an internal investigation was underway.

In the investigation itself, Shyriaiev is cited as claiming that his voice message from Kursk Oblast was referring to the practice of Russian soldiers of dressing in Ukrainian uniform to infiltrate through the front line, which is why any movement not warned of in advance would be treated as made by the enemy. Shyriaiev served in the Ukrainian nationalist formation East Corps at the onset of Russia's war in 2014. From 2018 to 2019, he was also a close associate of pro-Russian politician Illia Kyva, who fled to Russia a month before the full-scale invasion and was later assassinated in Moscow in 2023. The Texty investigation is the latest in a series of revelations about conditions inside some of Ukraine's assault regiments, which were expanded into some of the country's largest units on Syrskyi's orders throughout 2025. On July 29, the General Staff under new Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi announced an audit into the staffing of combat units and the distribution of manpower between them, an effort likely intended to reverse the disproportionate prioritization of units such as the 425th and 225th regiments.

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"an old timer, he was around, when, uh... he was at the gas station when... Mussolini, you know..." peltier-laugh

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 25 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

There's probably some degree of graft, but air defense is genuinely a very complex problem, and the US MIC, for all its faults, is actually ahead in that field (and the fact that this current conflict is demonstrating that even this most sophisticated air defense can't manage should be an indication for how viable it is on a base conceptual level). The simpler PAC-2 interceptors could perhaps be manageable, but the PAC-3 MSE is pretty fancy.

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 41 points 4 days ago

just capeshit propaganda, that production isn't starting up any time soon: https://hexbear.net/post/8953778/7295975

Trump's Patriot plan "will do little to fix Ukraine’s urgent air defense problems" because "it will take many months for Ukraine to get a production facility built," and that facility will quickly become a major Russian target

A production facility is an interesting way to put it. In the US, there are over a dozen different production facilities for Patriot interceptors alone (each producing only a subset of components or handling final assembly), with hundreds of suppliers involved in the production chain. The major components of a PAC-3 MSE interceptor are: radar seeker, guidance electronics, attitude control section, solid rocket motor, lethality enhancer (fragmentation ring), airframe, control surfaces, launch canister, and missile uplink. Someone's going to have to make each of these things. If it's going to be Ukraine, and if they want to bypass the glacial rate of interceptor production elsewhere, they'll need production lines for all of them, and those don't exist right now. They would never dream of building one giant facility to handle all of this because it would immediately be destroyed.

It's hard to convey how difficult it would be to spin up full production of Patriot interceptors, so here are some concrete examples. It took seven years for Poland to construct a production facility responsible for making only attitude control motors for the PAC-3 MSE. It took three years just to expand the final assembly facility in Camden even though that facility already existed and was actively in use. Boeing's seeker production line expansion in Huntsville is also projected to complete its expansion after three years. Japan's PAC-3 facility only took two, but it produces 20 interceptors a year and relies heavily on imported components from the US.

This idea is so unrealistic that even skeptics like Responsible Statecraft are failing to understand or express its absurdity

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 87 points 4 days ago

https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2082496676640530700

A US-owned LNG carrier was hit by a Drone in the Egyptian port of Damietta in the Mediterranean Sea. Possibly the "ENERGOS WINTER" operated by "WILHELMSEN SHIP MGMT LTD-USA" that have left the port following the reported attack, and is now anchored off the coast.

the crank map... it's growing...

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 49 points 4 days ago

https://archive.ph/n8NjB

French wildfires threaten nuclear deterrence industry, Rafale assembly

Wildfires raging west of the French city of Bordeaux are threatening a number of France’s key defense-industrial sites, including an ArianeGroup facility that produces propulsion components for the M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile, Dassault Aviation’s final assembly line for the Rafale fighter jet, and one of Roxel’s main manufacturing sites for solid rocket motors used in MBDA missiles.

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Dassault Aviation said it was moving sensitive equipment from a site closest to the wildfires to one nearer Bordeaux, with most workers staying home in line with instructions issued by the authorities. ArianeGroup had evacuated its affected sites, while the French Atomic Energy Commission CEA closed its military nuclear research site near Bordeaux as the wildfires approached. The Gironde department of southwest France has been battling one of the country’s largest wildfires on record, with over 100,000 acres burned — an area roughly four times the size of Paris. The fires in recent days approached the cluster of defense and aerospace sites west of Bordeaux that represents one of France’s most important concentrations of missile, propulsion, combat aircraft, and military electronics production. Dassault Aviation had to move “a certain number of sensitive equipment” from its site in Martignas and a logistics center in Cestas to its site in Mérignac and the local Air Base 106, working in close cooperation with France’s Directorate General for Armament and local authorities, the aircraft maker said in an emailed statement late Monday. Satellite data on Tuesday morning showed wildfires remained active less than 9 kilometers (5.6 miles) west of Dassault’s Martignas site, which is the wing assembly plant for the Rafale jet, before final assembly of the aircraft in Mérignac. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System showed fires and hot spots west of Bordeaux were significantly reduced as of 9 o’clock in the morning local time, though authorities have warned that a new wave of hot weather with a peak on Wednesday, combined with near-record drought conditions, could cause fire activity to pick up again.

Employees at the Mérignac and Martignas plants are staying home, in line with instructions issued by authorities, unless they’ve been evacuated, Dassault Aviation said. Those still working are the teams necessary for the transfer of equipment and those in charge of protecting the site to help with fire-fighting efforts, the company said. ArianeGroup is working in close cooperation with local and national authorities, and the company’s sites west of Bordeaux “have been evacuated, and all necessary measures have been taken to secure them,” the space-launch company said in an emailed reply to questions. The firm said it’s not commenting on security measures around its sites. Satellite data as of Tuesday morning showed active wildfires around 12 kilometers west of ArianeGroup’s Candale site, where the propulsion units of the M51 missile stages are integrated and assembled, around 13 kilometers from the site of Saint-Médard-en-Jalles where the missile is fueled, and some 16 kilometers of the Le Haillan site that produces the company’s solid-propulsion systems.

“Whilst the unprecedented forest fires in Gironde are above all an environmental and humanitarian disaster, they also threaten sites that are of vital strategic importance to our nuclear deterrent,” said Etienne Marcuz, an associate fellow at the Foundation pour la Recherche Stratégique, in a post on the social media network X on Sunday. Emergency services aided by local construction companies worked during the night of Friday to Saturday and throughout the day to clear vegetation and create firebreaks around a number of sensitive sites, Gironde department Prefect Sophie Brocas said in a press conference on Saturday. Marc Vermeulen, the head of the Gironde department fire and emergency service, said that after protecting lives, the next priority is protecting at-risk strategic sites. The DGA has a missile testing site just west of Saint-Médard. Thales said its site at Mérignac has been closed since Monday as a precautionary measure, in accordance with guidelines from the authorities. The company said it’s doing everything possible to safeguard its strategic equipment at the site and ensure continuity of its commitments to customers. The Thales site sits across from the Dassault Aviation campus in the Bordeaux suburb, and supplies equipment including avionics systems for the Rafale as well as military helicopters.

MBDA’s Roxel unit has one of its main production locations in Saint-Médard, where it produces propellant, solid rocket motors and carries out integration work for rockets and drones, on a site shared with ArianeGroup. Roxel produces the motors for a number of MBDA missiles, including the Aster range of air-defense interceptors. “Roxel is managing the situation and the necessary measures have been taken to ensure the safety of our staff and our operations, with the support of the relevant authorities and emergency services,” MBDA said in an emailed statement, declining further comment. The CEA said its site in Le Barp southwest of Bordeaux has been closed due to the wildfire situation. After wildfires in 2022, the center put in place new procedures, provided additional fire-fighting equipment to the in-house fire brigade, and created firebreaks around the center, the government organization said in an emailed reply to questions. The CEA Cesta site houses the organization’s megajoule laser, a research instrument used to create conditions of extreme heat and pressure similar to those produced by nuclear weapons, and part of France’s efforts to maintain the credibility of its nuclear deterrent without live nuclear testing. As of Tuesday morning, satellite data showed active wildfires around 7 kilometers from the site, after the fire front got to around 4 kilometers from the CEA site over the weekend.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 56 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

https://archive.ph/PACQc

Pentagon Suppliers Warn U.S. Won't Have Magnet Capacity By 2027

  • U.S. producers told Reuters they can't build enough processing and magnet capacity before the January 1, 2027 deadline to cut off Chinese rare earth materials.
  • China still controls the overwhelming majority of global rare earth refining and magnet production, giving Beijing leverage over EV, wind, robotics and defense supply chains.
  • MP Materials, Lynas, USA Rare Earth and others are ramping up domestic production with Pentagon and EXIM backing, but executives say full replacement of Chinese supply won't happen by early 2027.

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The Trump administration is weighing whether to extend access to some Chinese rare earth materials beyond the January 1, 2027 cutoff after U.S. producers acknowledged they cannot build sufficient domestic processing and magnet capacity before the deadline, Reuters reported on Monday. Industry executives and Pentagon suppliers told Reuters that U.S. processing and magnet manufacturing capacity remains insufficient to meet despite billions of dollars in federal support for new mines, separation facilities and downstream manufacturing. The gap threatens not only military procurement but also supply chains serving electric vehicles, offshore wind, robotics, data centers and other energy-intensive industries that depend on high-performance permanent magnets.

The shortage centers on neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) and samarium-cobalt magnets, which rely on rare earth supply chains that China continues to dominate. Beijing still controls the overwhelming majority of global rare earth refining and permanent magnet production, giving it enormous leverage over downstream manufacturing even as Western governments accelerate efforts to diversify supply. While the United States has made meaningful progress expanding domestic mining, processing, alloy production and magnet manufacturing require specialized infrastructure that has taken China decades to develop. Companies including MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Lynas Rare Earths, Energy Fuels and REalloys are investing heavily to establish domestic production capacity, while Washington has backed the sector through Department of Defense contracts, EXIM financing and strategic stockpiling initiatives. Several projects are expected to begin commercial production over the next 18 months, but executives say they will not be capable of completely replacing Chinese supply by early 2027. Beijing's tighter export controls and expanded rare earth traceability regime have further strengthened its grip on global magnet feedstocks, limiting the ability of Western manufacturers to source critical materials outside China.

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"In this part of the world, the idea of looking forward to work simply doesn't exist" tito-laugh

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 68 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

https://xcancel.com/Is_Not_Brian/status/2082215980751843478

Idea of Dubai: on life support

https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2082218622907203994 (privated account so you may not be able to open it)

They need to invert their censorship program and embrace the chaos. Missile tourism. Set up bleachers on ridge lines near US bases. Hook up a jumbotron to the air defense radars. Let people gamble on interception rates.

peltier-laugh

https://hexbear.net/post/7873177

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 35 points 4 days ago

officials are internally studying market-stabilization measures

I think there's some people close by who are very knowledgeable about market "stabilization" that they could ask juche-rose xigma-male

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 79 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

hosting US troops in your country is actively dangerous to your populace https://archive.ph/Xqens

Brief alert issued after suspected white phosphorus leak at US base

A brief evacuation alert was issued Tuesday in the regional city of Pyeongtaek, home to the US Forces Korea, following a report of a minor white phosphorus leak at the US base that officials say posed a low risk.

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Police and fire authorities said they received calls from the US military at around 5:07 p.m. reporting the leak of the toxic chemical substance at the K-55 U.S. Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, about 60 kilometers south of Seoul. The Pyeongtaek city government issued the alert notifying the public of the possible white phosphorus leak and advising residents nearby to evacuate to a safe location to prevent skin exposure. White phosphorus is an extremely toxic substance capable of burning human tissue down to the bone upon contact. Its military use is tightly regulated and discouraged by the international community.

The US Air Force said its experts discovered residue of white phosphorus crystallization inside a munitions crate during a routine inspection of munitions, prompting the unit to immediately cordon off the area to protect the base and local residents. "The situation is fully contained, and the cordon has been lifted," the US 51st Fighter Wing said in a statement. "There are no injuries resulting from this situation and no risk to personnel on or off installation." The Air Force unit said normal operations have resumed. "The safety of our service members, their families and our Pyeongtaek neighbors remains our absolute highest priority," 51st Fighter Wing Commander Col. Ryan Ley said. "We deeply appreciate your patience and cooperation as our highly trained personnel safely resolve this isolated situation," he said. The US military reportedly informed the city that the leaked substance had been roughly 80 percent diluted and that it poses a low risk to public health and the surrounding environment.

oh don't worry, it was merely a diluted highly dangerous substance!

Pyeongtaek authorities subsequently lifted the evacuation advisory, about 36 minutes after the initial alert, informing residents that it was safe to return to normal after necessary measures were completed at the US base. The US Air Force unit said earlier that some reports of a general evacuation of Osan Air Base were incorrect. The leak report had prompted local authorities to send firefighters and related equipment to the scene and coordinate joint responses with the US military, officials said. Police had set up a cordon with patrol vehicles about 300 to 500 meters from the base as a precaution, and blocked civilian access and detoured traffic. "The chemical substance, used for cleaning warheads, leaked inside the K-55 munition depot, but the US military informed us that the situation is now under control and poses no danger," a police official said. "A US military explosive ordnance disposal team and our firefighters responded to the scene, and operations are now largely complete," the official said earlier.

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Tervell

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