[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 1 points 6 minutes ago

just capeshit propaganda, that production isn't starting up any time soon: https://hexbear.net/post/8953778/7295975

Trump's Patriot plan "will do little to fix Ukraine’s urgent air defense problems" because "it will take many months for Ukraine to get a production facility built," and that facility will quickly become a major Russian target

A production facility is an interesting way to put it. In the US, there are over a dozen different production facilities for Patriot interceptors alone (each producing only a subset of components or handling final assembly), with hundreds of suppliers involved in the production chain. The major components of a PAC-3 MSE interceptor are: radar seeker, guidance electronics, attitude control section, solid rocket motor, lethality enhancer (fragmentation ring), airframe, control surfaces, launch canister, and missile uplink. Someone's going to have to make each of these things. If it's going to be Ukraine, and if they want to bypass the glacial rate of interceptor production elsewhere, they'll need production lines for all of them, and those don't exist right now. They would never dream of building one giant facility to handle all of this because it would immediately be destroyed.

It's hard to convey how difficult it would be to spin up full production of Patriot interceptors, so here are some concrete examples. It took seven years for Poland to construct a production facility responsible for making only attitude control motors for the PAC-3 MSE. It took three years just to expand the final assembly facility in Camden even though that facility already existed and was actively in use. Boeing's seeker production line expansion in Huntsville is also projected to complete its expansion after three years. Japan's PAC-3 facility only took two, but it produces 20 interceptors a year and relies heavily on imported components from the US.

This idea is so unrealistic that even skeptics like Responsible Statecraft are failing to understand or express its absurdity

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 4 points 8 minutes ago

https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2082496676640530700

A US-owned LNG carrier was hit by a Drone in the Egyptian port of Damietta in the Mediterranean Sea. Possibly the "ENERGOS WINTER" operated by "WILHELMSEN SHIP MGMT LTD-USA" that have left the port following the reported attack, and is now anchored off the coast.

the crank map... it's growing...

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submitted 1 hour ago by Tervell@hexbear.net to c/games@hexbear.net
[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 32 points 3 hours ago

https://archive.ph/n8NjB

French wildfires threaten nuclear deterrence industry, Rafale assembly

Wildfires raging west of the French city of Bordeaux are threatening a number of France’s key defense-industrial sites, including an ArianeGroup facility that produces propulsion components for the M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile, Dassault Aviation’s final assembly line for the Rafale fighter jet, and one of Roxel’s main manufacturing sites for solid rocket motors used in MBDA missiles.

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Dassault Aviation said it was moving sensitive equipment from a site closest to the wildfires to one nearer Bordeaux, with most workers staying home in line with instructions issued by the authorities. ArianeGroup had evacuated its affected sites, while the French Atomic Energy Commission CEA closed its military nuclear research site near Bordeaux as the wildfires approached. The Gironde department of southwest France has been battling one of the country’s largest wildfires on record, with over 100,000 acres burned — an area roughly four times the size of Paris. The fires in recent days approached the cluster of defense and aerospace sites west of Bordeaux that represents one of France’s most important concentrations of missile, propulsion, combat aircraft, and military electronics production. Dassault Aviation had to move “a certain number of sensitive equipment” from its site in Martignas and a logistics center in Cestas to its site in Mérignac and the local Air Base 106, working in close cooperation with France’s Directorate General for Armament and local authorities, the aircraft maker said in an emailed statement late Monday. Satellite data on Tuesday morning showed wildfires remained active less than 9 kilometers (5.6 miles) west of Dassault’s Martignas site, which is the wing assembly plant for the Rafale jet, before final assembly of the aircraft in Mérignac. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System showed fires and hot spots west of Bordeaux were significantly reduced as of 9 o’clock in the morning local time, though authorities have warned that a new wave of hot weather with a peak on Wednesday, combined with near-record drought conditions, could cause fire activity to pick up again.

Employees at the Mérignac and Martignas plants are staying home, in line with instructions issued by authorities, unless they’ve been evacuated, Dassault Aviation said. Those still working are the teams necessary for the transfer of equipment and those in charge of protecting the site to help with fire-fighting efforts, the company said. ArianeGroup is working in close cooperation with local and national authorities, and the company’s sites west of Bordeaux “have been evacuated, and all necessary measures have been taken to secure them,” the space-launch company said in an emailed reply to questions. The firm said it’s not commenting on security measures around its sites. Satellite data as of Tuesday morning showed active wildfires around 12 kilometers west of ArianeGroup’s Candale site, where the propulsion units of the M51 missile stages are integrated and assembled, around 13 kilometers from the site of Saint-Médard-en-Jalles where the missile is fueled, and some 16 kilometers of the Le Haillan site that produces the company’s solid-propulsion systems.

“Whilst the unprecedented forest fires in Gironde are above all an environmental and humanitarian disaster, they also threaten sites that are of vital strategic importance to our nuclear deterrent,” said Etienne Marcuz, an associate fellow at the Foundation pour la Recherche Stratégique, in a post on the social media network X on Sunday. Emergency services aided by local construction companies worked during the night of Friday to Saturday and throughout the day to clear vegetation and create firebreaks around a number of sensitive sites, Gironde department Prefect Sophie Brocas said in a press conference on Saturday. Marc Vermeulen, the head of the Gironde department fire and emergency service, said that after protecting lives, the next priority is protecting at-risk strategic sites. The DGA has a missile testing site just west of Saint-Médard. Thales said its site at Mérignac has been closed since Monday as a precautionary measure, in accordance with guidelines from the authorities. The company said it’s doing everything possible to safeguard its strategic equipment at the site and ensure continuity of its commitments to customers. The Thales site sits across from the Dassault Aviation campus in the Bordeaux suburb, and supplies equipment including avionics systems for the Rafale as well as military helicopters.

MBDA’s Roxel unit has one of its main production locations in Saint-Médard, where it produces propellant, solid rocket motors and carries out integration work for rockets and drones, on a site shared with ArianeGroup. Roxel produces the motors for a number of MBDA missiles, including the Aster range of air-defense interceptors. “Roxel is managing the situation and the necessary measures have been taken to ensure the safety of our staff and our operations, with the support of the relevant authorities and emergency services,” MBDA said in an emailed statement, declining further comment. The CEA said its site in Le Barp southwest of Bordeaux has been closed due to the wildfire situation. After wildfires in 2022, the center put in place new procedures, provided additional fire-fighting equipment to the in-house fire brigade, and created firebreaks around the center, the government organization said in an emailed reply to questions. The CEA Cesta site houses the organization’s megajoule laser, a research instrument used to create conditions of extreme heat and pressure similar to those produced by nuclear weapons, and part of France’s efforts to maintain the credibility of its nuclear deterrent without live nuclear testing. As of Tuesday morning, satellite data showed active wildfires around 7 kilometers from the site, after the fire front got to around 4 kilometers from the CEA site over the weekend.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 34 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

https://archive.ph/PACQc

Pentagon Suppliers Warn U.S. Won't Have Magnet Capacity By 2027

  • U.S. producers told Reuters they can't build enough processing and magnet capacity before the January 1, 2027 deadline to cut off Chinese rare earth materials.
  • China still controls the overwhelming majority of global rare earth refining and magnet production, giving Beijing leverage over EV, wind, robotics and defense supply chains.
  • MP Materials, Lynas, USA Rare Earth and others are ramping up domestic production with Pentagon and EXIM backing, but executives say full replacement of Chinese supply won't happen by early 2027.

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The Trump administration is weighing whether to extend access to some Chinese rare earth materials beyond the January 1, 2027 cutoff after U.S. producers acknowledged they cannot build sufficient domestic processing and magnet capacity before the deadline, Reuters reported on Monday. Industry executives and Pentagon suppliers told Reuters that U.S. processing and magnet manufacturing capacity remains insufficient to meet despite billions of dollars in federal support for new mines, separation facilities and downstream manufacturing. The gap threatens not only military procurement but also supply chains serving electric vehicles, offshore wind, robotics, data centers and other energy-intensive industries that depend on high-performance permanent magnets.

The shortage centers on neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) and samarium-cobalt magnets, which rely on rare earth supply chains that China continues to dominate. Beijing still controls the overwhelming majority of global rare earth refining and permanent magnet production, giving it enormous leverage over downstream manufacturing even as Western governments accelerate efforts to diversify supply. While the United States has made meaningful progress expanding domestic mining, processing, alloy production and magnet manufacturing require specialized infrastructure that has taken China decades to develop. Companies including MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Lynas Rare Earths, Energy Fuels and REalloys are investing heavily to establish domestic production capacity, while Washington has backed the sector through Department of Defense contracts, EXIM financing and strategic stockpiling initiatives. Several projects are expected to begin commercial production over the next 18 months, but executives say they will not be capable of completely replacing Chinese supply by early 2027. Beijing's tighter export controls and expanded rare earth traceability regime have further strengthened its grip on global magnet feedstocks, limiting the ability of Western manufacturers to source critical materials outside China.

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submitted 6 hours ago by Tervell@hexbear.net to c/videos@hexbear.net

"In this part of the world, the idea of looking forward to work simply doesn't exist" tito-laugh

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 49 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

https://xcancel.com/Is_Not_Brian/status/2082215980751843478

Idea of Dubai: on life support

https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2082218622907203994 (privated account so you may not be able to open it)

They need to invert their censorship program and embrace the chaos. Missile tourism. Set up bleachers on ridge lines near US bases. Hook up a jumbotron to the air defense radars. Let people gamble on interception rates.

peltier-laugh

https://hexbear.net/post/7873177

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 26 points 7 hours ago

officials are internally studying market-stabilization measures

I think there's some people close by who are very knowledgeable about market "stabilization" that they could ask juche-rose xigma-male

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 12 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Imagine pretending you're even remotely a sovereign state when you're just blatantly farming your guys out as mercenaries for the American empire... at least with the Ukrainian presence in Africa you can say that they're fighting against governments supported by actual Russian troops (even though it's still kind of weird to be dedicating resources to that when you're facing massive manpower issues at home, but still), but this? Just a total "dog of the US empire" move.

also I guess add this to the crank map

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 58 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

https://archive.ph/5tq0I

America’s fighter force is running out of margin: Rep. Biggs

The current demand signal for US air power abroad is not sustainable without significantly growing the force, argues Rep. Sheri Biggs, R-S.C.

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American defense strategy depends on airpower. That has been true for decades, but the demand signal is sharper now. The United States expects its Air Force to deter China, reassure allies in Europe, defend the homeland, respond to crises in the Middle East and remain ready for major war. Those missions are spread across different theaters, different timelines and different levels of risk. They all assume that enough combat airpower will be available when needed. That assumption is becoming harder to defend. The Air Force fighter fleet is now the oldest and smallest in the service’s 78-year history. Legacy fighter aircraft have been divested at roughly a two-to-one ratio compared with the procurement of new fighters. The fighter inventory is projected to reach its lowest point in fiscal year 2028, and the service’s primary mission fighter aircraft inventory has already fallen below the congressionally mandated floor of 1,145 aircraft. These figures point to a basic force-planning problem. The United States is assigning its fighter force a global mission set while allowing the force to shrink during recapitalization. Better aircraft are necessary, but they do not eliminate the need for enough aircraft. A smaller fighter force has fewer tails for training, fewer aircraft available during maintenance cycles, fewer options for combatant commanders and less ability to absorb attrition if deterrence fails.

The Air Force’s fiscal 2027 budget request would buy 62 fighters: 38 F-35As and 24 F-15EXs. That would be an improvement over deeper cuts, but it remains below the level needed to stabilize the force. National Guard leaders have urged Congress to support at least 72 new fighters per year, with a goal above 100 as the industrial base allows. The difference between 62 and 72 aircraft may look modest in one budget cycle. Over several years, it determines whether the force continues to shrink or begins to recover. This is the context for the bipartisan letter I led to congressional defense leaders with Representatives Don Bacon, Donald Davis, Russell Fry,

Clay Higgins,

mattjak whayouwannado is you wanna get some of them planes right ere

Dusty Johnson, Nancy Mace, Ralph Norman, August Pfluger, Pete Stauber, Chris Smith, William Timmons and Joe Wilson. The letter urges Congress to use the FY27 defense bills to procure no fewer than 72 fighters per year, scale above 100 as industry allows, support multiyear procurement authority for the F-35A and F-15EX, maintain at least 57 combat-coded fighter squadrons and require better reporting on fighter recapitalization across the Active, Guard and Reserve components. The proposal is deliberately specific. It does not try to settle every dispute about the future of air power. It addresses the nearer-term problem that aircraft are leaving the inventory faster than replacements are arriving.

Some divestment is necessary. Older aircraft become more expensive to sustain and less useful against advanced threats. But divestment only works when replacement capacity arrives on time. Retiring aircraft before replacements are fielded does not only change the age of the force. It changes the size of the force. That timing problem is central to the fighter debate. A fighter that arrives in the 2030s cannot offset a squadron shortfall in the late 2020s. Future systems matter, but they do not meet today’s requirements until they are fielded, crewed, maintained, integrated and available to commanders. The debate should not become a competition between platforms. The F-35A remains central to fifth-generation capacity. The F-15EX provides payload, range, homeland defense value and a practical replacement path for aging aircraft. The F-22 remains important until the next air dominance platform is fielded in sufficient numbers. The F-47 and collaborative combat aircraft will shape the next generation of airpower. These programs should be treated as parts of one force-design problem: whether the fighter fleet is large enough, modern enough and ready enough to support US strategy.

That question is most urgent in the Pacific. The Department of Defense has assessed that China surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads by mid-2024 and could have more than 1,000 by 2030. China is also modernizing its conventional forces, missile forces, maritime forces, space capabilities, cyber capabilities and air forces. The relevance for fighter procurement is not that every Chinese capability requires a US fighter response. It is that the pacing challenge is large, sustained and increasingly sophisticated. A shrinking fighter fleet leaves less room to meet that challenge while also covering other global commitments. Following my letter to congressional leadership, I am proud that the House-passed FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes a key priority to strengthen America’s fighter fleet for the long term. By establishing higher fighter inventory requirements and expanding multiyear procurement authority, Congress is taking meaningful action to ensure our Air Force has the aircraft needed to deter our adversaries and maintain air superiority. We must also continue working to ensure the Air National Guard is fully included in all recapitalization efforts, including those involving legacy fighters. While these provisions represent an important step forward, our work is not finished. Congress should use the remaining FY27 defense bills to fully align fighter procurement with our national defense strategy. Combatant commanders need enough aircraft to meet real-world requirements. If the United States wants a defense strategy that deters aggression, reassures allies and gives commanders options in crisis, Congress and the Department of Defense must close the fighter gap before a conflict exposes it.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 75 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

hosting US troops in your country is actively dangerous to your populace https://archive.ph/Xqens

Brief alert issued after suspected white phosphorus leak at US base

A brief evacuation alert was issued Tuesday in the regional city of Pyeongtaek, home to the US Forces Korea, following a report of a minor white phosphorus leak at the US base that officials say posed a low risk.

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Police and fire authorities said they received calls from the US military at around 5:07 p.m. reporting the leak of the toxic chemical substance at the K-55 U.S. Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, about 60 kilometers south of Seoul. The Pyeongtaek city government issued the alert notifying the public of the possible white phosphorus leak and advising residents nearby to evacuate to a safe location to prevent skin exposure. White phosphorus is an extremely toxic substance capable of burning human tissue down to the bone upon contact. Its military use is tightly regulated and discouraged by the international community.

The US Air Force said its experts discovered residue of white phosphorus crystallization inside a munitions crate during a routine inspection of munitions, prompting the unit to immediately cordon off the area to protect the base and local residents. "The situation is fully contained, and the cordon has been lifted," the US 51st Fighter Wing said in a statement. "There are no injuries resulting from this situation and no risk to personnel on or off installation." The Air Force unit said normal operations have resumed. "The safety of our service members, their families and our Pyeongtaek neighbors remains our absolute highest priority," 51st Fighter Wing Commander Col. Ryan Ley said. "We deeply appreciate your patience and cooperation as our highly trained personnel safely resolve this isolated situation," he said. The US military reportedly informed the city that the leaked substance had been roughly 80 percent diluted and that it poses a low risk to public health and the surrounding environment.

oh don't worry, it was merely a diluted highly dangerous substance!

Pyeongtaek authorities subsequently lifted the evacuation advisory, about 36 minutes after the initial alert, informing residents that it was safe to return to normal after necessary measures were completed at the US base. The US Air Force unit said earlier that some reports of a general evacuation of Osan Air Base were incorrect. The leak report had prompted local authorities to send firefighters and related equipment to the scene and coordinate joint responses with the US military, officials said. Police had set up a cordon with patrol vehicles about 300 to 500 meters from the base as a precaution, and blocked civilian access and detoured traffic. "The chemical substance, used for cleaning warheads, leaked inside the K-55 munition depot, but the US military informed us that the situation is now under control and poses no danger," a police official said. "A US military explosive ordnance disposal team and our firefighters responded to the scene, and operations are now largely complete," the official said earlier.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 40 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

A State Department official said China’s economic activities in the Western Hemisphere pose risks to U.S. national security and prosperity. ... China’s offerings may seem cheaper ....

Some past articles to elucidate on this:

  1. the struggle over the Argentinian F-16 contract, wherein the US was willing to screw over Ukraine in order to make sure Argentina didn't buy Chinese: https://hexbear.net/post/6148937/6504631

  2. and one from just a few days ago, about Taiwan getting screwed over with delays for the F-16s they had bought: https://hexbear.net/post/9075869/7334030

  3. various other delays of US equipment, like Switzerland (https://hexbear.net/post/7856493/6975434), Bulgaria (https://hexbear.net/post/5882504/6435969), India (https://hexbear.net/post/8119191/7067107)

  4. plus some bonus cost overruns which I thought weren't supposed to happen with superior American equipment: https://hexbear.net/post/8715849/7233756, https://hexbear.net/post/6976811/6745885

So yeah, US military industry's complete inability to produce anything at a reasonable rate is, in fact, opening up an opportunity for China to come in as one of the only viable options, given that European industry's even worse, and Russia's slowed down arms exports somewhat in order to arm itself due to Ukraine. This likely applies to other industries too.

That's the free market baybee, if you didn't want China to "pose risks" to your prosperity you should have outcompeted them in the market! econony

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 35 points 1 day ago

This reminded me of @hexaflexagonbear@hexbear.net's funny comment on another pop density map I posted some time ago

Did Saudi Arabia not know that Egypt already did The Line.

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 85 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Tbf, Yemen is kind of deceptive since it looks small on the map compared to Saudi Arabia, but it has a population of 43 million, nearly 10 million more than the Saudis, and nearly half of the total population of the Arabian peninsula. It's actually only a few million less than Iraq! I guess people tend to assume it's similar to neighboring Oman, which appears similarly-sized on a map, but the demographics are completely different.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1b5fzfs/population_density_of_middle_east/

It has been a smaller player up until now due to the legacy of colonialism leaving it unstable, a fate shared by many countries - but as those countries are able to overcome the damage dealt to them by imperialism and start developing their economies properly, there's going to be many more such shockers popping up across the world.

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Tervell

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