https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/RSA_Observer/status/2120445641268621659
‼️King’s College London War Studies PhD Alexander Grable just published a paper that directly challenges the core Western claim about the Ukraine war: that Russia is taking multiples of Ukrainian casualties and is being steadily attrited. The article appears in the official 2026 Russia Seminar proceedings of the Finnish National Defence University. Using open-source data only, Grable argues the opposite is true - Ukrainian irretrievable losses are substantially higher, both absolutely and relatively. The most striking indicators:
- Ukrainian Ministry of Health / National Institute of Strategic Studies amputee figures, even when deliberately adjusted downward to match the best U.S. medical performance in the War on Terror, imply 400,000–520,000 Ukrainian KIA by late 2024.
- Parallel Russian military-hospital data (obtained via a defector) shows far fewer amputees relative to admissions.
- Body exchanges across the war average roughly 12.5 Ukrainian dead returned for every 1 Russian.
- Open-source Russian death tallies (Mediazona and similar) show serious inflation when cross-checked against obituaries and probate records. A 2025 prisoner cohort of ~4,000 produced only ~112 corroborated deaths by late summer — incompatible with claims of 30–50k Russian dead per month.
Grable’s conclusion: Russian KIA/MIA are very probably lower than most Western estimates, Ukrainian losses are very probably higher, and Ukraine is on the wrong side of the attritional gradient. Russia has used superior firepower, training, and its reconnaissance-strike complex to impose highly unfavorable ratios. Full paper (free PDF): https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/195520
This is not a fringe blog or a politicised claim. It is a published contribution to a major military university’s research series.
) running around Europe 







", and, like... maybe they just got fucking tired of having to reiterate the same goddamn points 1546546 times a month!