[–] [S] 3 points 1 day ago*

Or the Fallout timeline, where a global oil crisis (wait a minute seen-this-one) means oil-derived products have to be substituted with alternatives like wood, or resin-based polymers like the ones the Soviets used IRL (like the famous "bakelite" AK magazines, which are technically made of a different bakelite-esque material), which give off a kinda wood-ish vibe anyway. The P90 is even in Fallout 2, so one could imagine a post-apocalypse gunsmith having to replace the original polymer stock with a wooden one after it was broken and there were no spare plastic parts to be found.

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  • [–] 103 points 1 day ago (6 children)

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/danriversitv/status/2107162522679713972

    Scoop: I have heard from a source familiar with the RAF Fairford story that the US feared a drone a attack similar to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb last year which destroyed 10 Russian aircraft. They fear Iran might copy the tactics and that drones might even already be in UK, hence abrupt departure of B1s.

    https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2107191786670092672 (privated account)

    Debasification is accelerating at geographic distances I failed to anticipate

    peltier-laugh

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  • [–] 66 points 1 day ago

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/BrettErickson28/status/2106866676788810002

    Hidden in a Treasury press release of sanctions designations is a clear admission that Iran IS getting PAID by some countries and companies for transit: “Since June of this year, OFAC-designated Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Iranian regime.”

    Link to the full September 17th Press Release from OFAC for those of you depraved enough to read: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0632/

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  • [–] 57 points 2 days ago* (4 children)

    European rearmament going well, I see... https://archive.ph/vevEn

    Germany's Tomahawk-Typhon Budget Balloons From €1.37B to €3.4B, But Won't Buy a Single Extra Missile or Launcher

    Hartpunkt analysis shows initial €220M launcher estimate was half real cost while fire control and maintenance add €1.2B, leaving 400-440 Tomahawks at best

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    In 2025 Germany allocated €1.37 billion for future procurement from U.S. of 400 ground-based Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles and three Typhon launcher batteries. Now Germans are ready to spend €3.4 billion on procuring these cruise missiles and launchers, already budgeted for 2027. With high probability the deal between Germany and U.S. on Tomahawks will go through, but this by no means signifies delivery of greater quantity of Typhon and Tomahawk. As Hartpunkt portal authors estimate, for the above-mentioned €3.4 billion Germany will not be able to buy a greater quantity of Typhon launchers and Tomahawk cruise missiles than originally planned. The entire matter lies in the German side likely not fully accurately estimating the possible expenditure level at the beginning of this story.

    More specifically, for procuring three Typhon batteries comprising 12 launchers, three command vehicles and associated equipment, initially only €220 million was allocated. However more realistically here a figure of €440 million should be taken, meaning twice as much. Additionally, fire control system and technical maintenance costs apparently need to be added here.

    what is it with European countries and forgetting to take into account maintenance costs? are they operating on such high levels of end-of-history-ism that they can't even conceptualize of things decaying with use anymore?

    Adjusting for experience of analogous procurements by Japan and Netherlands (which however purchased naval-based Tomahawks), for Germany this expenditure should be approximately €1.2 billion. The remaining amount of €1.76 billion at current domestic and export Tomahawk prices is sufficient to purchase from 400 to 440 cruise missiles of indicated type. Defense Express emphasizes — if Hartpunkt authors' calculations are correct, then an interesting paradox emerges where Germany will have to sharply increase expected expenditures on strategically important weapons procurement not even due to inflation but initial budget miscalculations.

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  • [–] 59 points 3 days ago* (5 children)

    would you look at that US military buildup

    (followup to https://hexbear.net/post/9605989/7487779) https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2106715547597435355 (privated account)

    Turns out they were standing off 3000mi away

    Note for a moment the news cycle about imminent escalation, three carriers in the Gulf, 2000 (!!!) marines headed to the area, when in reality one of the two carriers slipped away and the force in the region is the smallest it's been since the start of war. The Washington, the only remaining carrier in the region, hasn't been seen in weeks.

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/MoloWarMonitor/status/2106705705134674051

    Footage shows several U.S. B-1B "Lancer" strategic bombers taking off from RAF Fairford, UK. They are most likely returning to the U.S. and it is not yet known if they will be replaced anytime soon.

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/DefenceGeek/status/2106708256982704232

    OK so this looks like a major draw-down! 6 B-1Bs have departed so far this morning, and 2-3 more are preparing to fly shortly!! The fleet of bombers was at 12 aircraft last night, so this is a big deal!!

    ALL 12 ARE DUE TO LEAVE TODAY:


    Why are they suddenly going back? Is this rotational

    It doesn't look rotational, as the jets that have departed all arrived at different times of the year... some not all that long ago... this looks like a withdrawal now

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  • [–] 62 points 3 days ago (2 children)

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/JavierBlas/status/2106659930535293294

    CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Persian Gulf to the Far East has climbed further, reaching ~$1.3 million per day. (It was less than $50,000 a day before the war started; and ~$1.1 million when I first published the chart in September). Poten & Partners, a shipbroker, estimates that freight accounts today for >25% of the cost of a barrel of oil when it lands at the refinery gate, up from %3 pre-war.

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  • [–] 64 points 4 days ago (13 children)

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/bonzerbarry/status/2106358106452095224

    There have been 2-3 confirmed impacts in Riyadh and at least one impact in Yanbu in recent days without a single alert being published by the Saudi Civil Defense. I knew they stopped publishing alerts but now we have a lot of solid evidence. Ansarallah is still attacking targets inside Saudi Arabia multiple times a day. To be clear, the coalition SPOX has been announcing "intercepts" for the border provinces still. But everywhere else is censored and the Saudi Civil Defense hasn't published an alert in 4 days.

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  • dinner with anthropic (thelemmy.club)
     

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/pardus_prime/status/2106047765469933716

    NEW: According to a bombshell report in the New York Times, Anthropic co-founder Chris Olah threatened to walk out of Pope Leo XIV’s AI encyclical launch in May because the pope rejected the idea that machines can be conscious. Olah’s team then privately lobbied the pope’s advisers “to take the possibility of model consciousness seriously.” Pope Leo XIV held firm. For months, Anthropic has wined and dined theologians and religious scholars under nondisclosure agreements, hoping they would bless the idea that Claude has moral standing.

    I would give almost anything to have been in the room to watch the guy whose job it was to convince a Pontifical University of Saint Thomas Aquinas graduate that his boss has successfully matched God and created a soul.

    "Grazie for the dinner Msr. Olah. We shall carry your words to his Holiness." (writes HERETIC in all caps on Vatican stationary, seals it in an ivory white envelope, hands it off to the nearest assistant)

    [–] 14 points 5 days ago

    thanks

    watching all the alternative frontends get picked off one by one's really frustrating, someone's really gotta host one of these in Russia or something and just not bother responding to billionaire-tears's takedown requests

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  • [–] 44 points 5 days ago* (1 child)

    https://archive.ph/xrWtQ

    Pentagon update on National Defense Strategy cites progress, omits key threats

    The report to Congress notes accomplishments but masks depleted arsenals, strategic distractions, and a quiet retreat from European defense.

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    The Pentagon’s latest report about its implementation of the National Defense Strategy notes progress on accelerating weapons production, cutting red tape, and persuading European governments to boost defense spending—but is light on problems such as Russia’s increasing aggression in Europe and the high cost of U.S. wars in the Middle East. The report to Congress, dated Sept. 22 but pushed out on Defense Department social media on Tuesday, argues that the Trump administration has made “significant progress implementing the 2026 National Defense Strategy’s guidance” in several areas. It cites a historically large budget request that includes funding for undersea forces, long-range air forces, long-range ground fires, and satellites for communication and intelligence; and $53 billion to accelerate the development of munitions. The report arrives one day before Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s scheduled “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia. He is likely to talk about some of the update’s key themes, according to one person familiar with the matter.

    The update cites progress made in the Golden Dome for America, or GDA, effort to build a continental defense against drones and missiles. “DoW has already conducted our first live-fire event, during which we successfully demonstrated key aspects of GDA command-and-control (C2) as well as integration of other key capabilities,” it says. The update says the Pentagon has worked with the Federal Aviation Administration and the Federal Communications Commission to ease the development and testing of counter-drone defenses. “We have created a first-of-its-kind process for the rapid coordination and safe incorporation of next generation C-UAS technology” into the National Airspace System, it says. The update touts the administration’s effort to persuade European allies to spend more on their militaries and contribute more to plans for the continent’s defense. At least one alliance defense leader—Paweł Ksawery Zalewski, secretary of state at Poland’s Ministry of National Defence—has said the NATO 3.0 concept should not be misunderstood as a harbinger of a U.S. retreat from the alliance. “Polish armed forces and American armed forces have never been so close and so good and so deep as today,” Zalewski told a U.S. audience last week.

    But the report glosses over conditions that have worsened since the National Defense Strategy was published in January—in part, because of President Trump’s decision to start a war on Iran. For instance, while the NDS holds as a goal the replenishment of the U.S. arsenal, the new report doesn’t mention that Operation Epic Fury and other Middle East operations have set back that goal by “'months and years,” as a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies put it in May. Nor does the report mention the NDS’ warning against “endless wars, regime change, and nation building”—the latter two being among the many justifications given by the Trump administration for its war on Iran. It skips the fact that the NDS said regional allies should deter Iran and that it said further military action to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon would be unnecessary in the wake of June 2025’s “Midnight Hammer” bombing. Instead, the update asserts that the Defense Department “anticipated that such a need [for strikes against Iran’s nuclear program] might be forthcoming.”

    But perhaps the report’s most significant omission, which it shares with the NDS itself, concerns Russian actions:

    jagoff

    hybrid and kinetic action against NATO members, military assistance to Iran, and intensifying the war on Ukraine. Instead, the update notes that the United States reduced the number of manned brigade combat teams in Europe from “five to three, returning us to the level of BCTs in Europe in 2021.” Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, writing for the Heinrich Böll Foundation on Sept. 24, say that “a potential U.S. force posture reduction in Europe will leave the continent vulnerable to further Russian aggression.”

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  • [–] 60 points 5 days ago (3 children)

    from last week, but a very funny thing to happen to the world's most well funded military with, allegedly, totally the bestest logistics https://archive.ph/FqBW9

    Largest Army base in South Korea has no running water over holiday weekend

    Officials at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, said a mechanical failure cut water service across the base, with repairs delayed during the three-day Chuseok harvest holiday.

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    Soldiers at the Army’s primary base in South Korea have no running water and won’t have any through the weekend, service officials said on Friday. Officials said that a mechanical failure left taps dry across Camp Humphreys, 40 miles south of Seoul, but that fixes would be delayed through the weekend due to a Korean holiday. This weekend marks the three-day Chuseok harvest festival, which extends over Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this week. As a result of the holiday, officials said, U.S. troops, families and contractors on base could be without running water until Monday. A post on the base’s Facebook page said that several services were closed. “All [recreational] facilities, AAFES food services, AAFES Main Exchange, Zoeckler Mini Mall, Troop Mini Mall, Sentry Mini Mall, and 3rd MI Express are suspended,” the post said. “The 24-hour Family Mini Mall remains operational.” Dining facilities, officials said, remain open.

    The base gets approximately 70% of its water from the nearby city of Pyeongtaek, while the remaining 30% is sourced from wells on the base, according to previous reporting by Stars and Stripes. Camp Humphreys is the largest overseas U.S. military installation, and home to the 2nd Infantry Division. The installation has an on-base population of about 45,000 service members, civilians, contractors, and their families. Many, though not all, soldiers on base are on unaccompanied tours without families. Army officials have not said how many troops are impacted by the water shortage. A basewide notification of the water shortage went out across Camp Humphreys on Friday, Sept. 25, at about 8 p.m. A Camp Humphreys Facebook page has posted updates on the shortage, noting that the issue affects both drinking water and non-potable water used for sanitary purposes. Drinking water, officials said, was available from nine “water buffalo” portable tanks around the base. Impacted individuals, officials said, will need to bring their own containers to fill.

    With most plumbing out of service, officials said portable toilets were located at the commissary, on-base lodgings and the 24-hour family mini mall. The base is also allegedly actively working on distributing bottled water, as well. The Army did not immediately respond to questions from Task & Purpose on the water shortage’s direct cause.

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  • [–] 72 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (3 children)

    a little followup to the "Kpler accused of receiving data inputs directly from US government sources" bit from https://hexbear.net/comment/7502136

    https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/BrettErickson28/status/2105792818480357409

    Uhhhhh the Head of Crude Oil Analysis at Kpler has a Lion and Sun flag [Iranian monarchist] for his Twitter? I don’t use this to discount Kpler’s data, I’ve found them personally to be very reliable and cross-corroborated with other industry experts but… If someone wanted to point at manipulated oil data… Kpler made that VERY easy…

    holy fucking shit lmao tito-laugh

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