Over the past two days, I talked to a diplomatic source, a journalist and a security analyst in Tehran. These are the takeaways.

1. The state appears to be holding firm despite the internal strains and external threats. The rebellion has been crushed--most casualties were in the northwestern and the southern border provinces. There is no defection at the top levels. There is no Delcy. The chain of command remains intact. Three figures have emerged as the main power centres--Larijani, Shamkhani and Ghalibaf--while Pezeshkian has been effectively sidelined. "He is the right man in the right place but at the wrong time," one of them told me.

2. Pezehskian, Araghchi and the reform bloc pushes for a compromise deal to avert war and secure some sanctions relief. "The leader doesn't prefer this," the diplomat said. Still, they want to exhaust diplomatic options so the state can close ranks across factions of the elite if war breaks out. But both reformists and conservatives have drawn a firm line on the missile programme. Reformists argue concessions can be made on enrichment (including shipping out 60% enriched uranium) if the US is prepared to lift at least some sanctions. But even they are unwilling to negotiate over the missile programme.

3. Iran knows the scope for a compromise is very thin. "Even if we make a deal on the nuclear programme, Israel would still call us a threat. If we abandon the missiles to avoid U.S. strikes today, Israel will attack us anyway, maybe in a few months. So why should we surrender our missiles," said the think tanker. Trump has boxed himself in. He probably thought that Iran would capitulate under pressure. But what he is asking for is Iran's disarmament. Having built up a significant military presence in the region, he can't easily step back without extracting major concessions. "But we can't give him what he asks for," said the analyst. This means the possibility for a conflict is very high.

4. What will Iran do if it were struck? This time, Iran sees any attack as existential. It has to either resist the US-Israel combine with full force or go down. If they accept a limited strike, there would be another attack a few months down the line. "It's a different kind of mowing the lawn strategy." If the state survives the initial blow, which they believe is likely, Iran would strike Israel and US bases in the region, one of them said. Within Iran, hardliners still argue that accepting Trump's ceasefire in June was a mistake. They think they were becoming more effective in striking Israel with fewer missiles when the war progressed. And this time, they are ready to fight a long war. "The leader has given clear instructions that the survival of the republic is paramount."

The United States will be sending even more tactical fighter aircraft to the Middle East next week, in the military buildup against Iran.

5x mid air refuelling tanker aircraft (1x KC-135R/T, 4x KC-46) with GOLD callsigns have been deployed to Bangor Air National Guard Base, Maine, United States. They are preparing to drag more tactical fighter aircraft across the Atlantic ocean, probably sometime next week. It's unknown what type of aircraft will be deployed.

Canadians and others in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, have been ordered to shelter in place amid street violence spurred by a military operation that killed a cartel leader.

In the popular Mexican travel destination, as well as other cities in the country’s southwest, criminal groups have set up roadblocks with burning vehicles, says a travel advisory from the Canadian government.

"There have been shootouts with security forces and explosions,” according to the advisory, which urges Canadians to avoid all non-essential travel to multiple regions in Mexico.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/canadians-in-puerto-vallarta-ordered-to-shelter-in-place-amid-street-violence-death-of-cartel/article_4196c029-497c-4f35-a25a-9139f50c400e.html

https://x.com/YanLian31677392/status/2025714779227402689

There is no such thing as a "balance of payments (bop) deficit" that would require tariffs as exchange rate is flexible (and stable on top). Yet, no one cares Trump is doing it. I know it's "only" 150 days but come on if IEEPA tariffs are illegal then this should be too.

At least with IEEPA the President can pretend there is an emergency, you can't pretend there is a BoP deficit since it doesn't even apply.

Armed man shot and killed trying to enter Mar-a-lago

Ship Believed To Be Carrying Russian Fuel Reportedly On Its Way To Cuba, Challenging U.S. Blockade

https://www.latintimes.com/ship-believed-carrying-russian-fuel-reportedly-its-way-cuba-challenging-us-blockade-594883

Brought this at the end-of-life of this thread, maybe I'll update and repost it next week.

New US trans rights risk map from Erin Reed, various clinics denying minors care due to the HHS threatening them with kicking them out of Medicare entirely, Kansas moving into "Do Not Travel" category due to bathroom bills: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/anti-trans-national-legal-risk-assessment-a5d

The anti-trans legislation I previously reported never made it to the Turkish Parliament due to giant protests over it. Now AKP is reportedly planning to add it to the next judicial package or propose it as a seperate law: https://kaosgl1.org/en/single-news/anti-lgbti-bill-back-on-the-agenda-34-don-t-even-think-about-bringing-back-the-anti-lgbti-law-removed-from-the-judicial-package-34

Despite not passing a law though the government has been increasing pressure on LGBT activists and celebrities with vague charges. Activist Defne Güzel is being sued for "actions contrary to public morality" over a book about intersex people: https://kaosgl1.org/en/single-news/lawsuit-filed-seeking-prison-sentence-for-17-may-association-chair-defne-guzel

Recently a purge has been going on, mainly against parts of the bourgeoisie not in good terms with Erdoğan. The official line is drug use and trafficking. For example, the most public one has been against the current president of Fenerbahçe(source in Turkish): https://www.dw.com/tr/uyu%C5%9Fturucu-testi-pozitif-%C3%A7%C4%B1kan-sadettin-sarandan-a%C3%A7%C4%B1klama/a-75292354 . At least 3 LGBT celebrities have been arrested as part of it(source in Turkish): https://kaosgl1.org/haber/universite-topluluklarindan-fenomenlere-yonelik-operasyonlara-tepki-34-her-lubunyaya-gozdagi-verilmesi-amaclaniyor-34

On 18th of January the government's official streaming platform Tabii has released an anti-LGBT documentary titled "Rainbow Fascism"(source in Turkish): https://bianet.org/haber/tabiiden-ayrimci-belgesel-gokkusagi-fasizmi-315607

The trailer for the "documentary": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMDOPPboT9M&t=12

Is this good?

Telegraph - Here’s how the monarchy survives the fallout from Andrew

Lyon, France. A person died in the margin of a Rima hassan rally for Unbowed France. All the billionaire-owned and even public medias are charging "far left violence", made a dithyrambic portrait of the victim, presenting him as a sort of chivalrous militant for catholicism, who were spending his week-end helping widows and street orphans, as his body was still warm.

Turns out, he was part of "nationalist revolutionary" groups, came there with his neonazi mate with sticks to kick people's ass, and the incident was more akin to hooliganism than political violence. Now the neonazis student groups are on national TV whining about how they're the victims.

E.P.A. Weakens Limits on Mercury From Coal Plants

The move appeared to undermine the goals of the Make America Healthy Again movement led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health secretary. As the head of the environmental group Waterkeeper Alliance, Mr. Kennedy campaigned against mercury pollution for years, citing his own diagnosis of mercury poisoning caused by a diet high in tuna.

They’re gonna make the fish gay

Besides mercury, the change would relax limits on other heavy metals released by burning coal, including cadmium, chromium, lead and nickel. These other pollutants are linked to a range of health risks, including cancer, infertility and neurological damage.

well, it certainly bodes well for Boeing if the next tanker aircraft ends up being Brazilian... https://archive.ph/uCyt0

Northrop, Brazil’s Embraer partner on KC-390 to pitch US, others

Under a memorandum of understanding, Northrop will explore options to develop an autonomous boom refueling system for Embraer’s KC-390, hoping to attract US and international customers.

Very interesting article on Iranian air defences with satellite imagery.

It looks like Iran is trying to pair the missiles /launchers of Russian/Soviet origin air defence systems which had their radars destroyed by previous Israeli and US airstrikes, with Iranian air defence systems and radars.

S-300PMU-2/SA-20 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) paired with an Iranian Bavar-373 system, but no 30N6 series Tombstone/Flap Lid fire control radar from the SA-20 visible (destruction of at least one such radar has been confirmed by previous satellite imagery, included in the article):

S-200V/SA-5B surface to air missile and launcher paired with an Iranian Khordad 15 system, no Square Pair fire control radar or Tail King search radar visible from the S-200 (Israel destroyed a bunch of these last year in June when targeting S-200 sites):

Looking at this, I have doubts that Iran is getting advanced air defence systems or radars from Russia and China, given the lengths Iran is going to try revive these systems which had their radars destroyed. Could China nor Russia seriously not spare a half century old Square Pair or Tail King radar from old stock or even a museum? Can China not spare 4x 30N6 radars for the Iranian SA-20s, China have over 100 between Russian purchased systems and domestic copies. Or maybe they supplied them a ton of advanced stuff and this act of trying to get these systems working with Iranian radars is all a ruse. But it doesn't look good.

A reminder that we are now firmly inside the event horizon for war between the US and Iran. As a result, all news is now suspect, oft times used as weapons to decieve or psych out the other side. Tonight there were many reports that US bases in Qatar have been evacuated, but US officials have denied that. True? Doesn't matter. We have no way of knowing if that is intended as a strategy to make Iran be in a heightened state of readiness all weekend but no attack happens and thereby tire them out, if the denial is an attempt to disuade Iran from striking first because they'll kill a lot of Americans and thereby guarentee a giant response, some other combination of feights and plots, I haven't a clue. Just remember that every piece of information we get is being used for something, one way or the other. The dooming on here and elsewhere during the first day or so of the 12 Day War was unbearable. I expect the same this time, but let's keep a clear head everybody.

Sergei Glazyev dropped a few truth bombs today:

"The Western economic system is losing its effectiveness and its leadership. The center of the global economy has shifted east. Today, China and India account for the majority of global economic growth. Other countries in South and East Asia are joining them. There is no longer any doubt that a historic global transition has occurred. The 'pax Americana' has collapsed before our very eyes."

"They still consider themselves the center of the universe and are trying to maintain their hegemony in a situation where, in terms of economic efficiency and development management, they have already failed. They have already lost the economic competition with China, but they cannot admit it."

https://www.politnavigator.net/pax-americana-uzhe-razvalilsya-no-eshhe-ne-znaet-ob-ehtom.html

A photographer managed to snap some very detailed pictures of the specialised F-16CJ suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) aircraft from the South Carolina Air National Guard at Lajes a few days ago, before heading to the Middle East. These have been outfitted with some quite specialised equipment not seen before on combat deployed F-16CJs. These aren't your ordinary F-16s, or even your ordinary F-16CJs. Very specialised equipment is being deployed. If you don't want to read further that's all you need to know, very specialised equipment being moved to the Middle East.

Source for photographs

First thing that's visually apparent is the dark grey colour and canopy tint. This is from the Have Glass V/Upgraded Have Glass radar signature reduction treatment applied to some F-16s. This consists of a radar absorbent material (RAM) coating applied to the aircraft, similar to the F-35, which is why it's the same colour as an F-35. There is also a canopy film and coating of the radome and edge treatment to reduce radar return, which is why the canopy has that tint, and the radome and leading edges of the intake, wings and vertical stabiliser are a lighter colour. While it's not "stealth", all this helps reduce the radar cross section (RCS) substantially, especially from a head on angle.

Another unique piece of equipment is the Electronic Countermeasures (ECM) pod on the centerline of the aircraft. Gone is the usual AN/ALQ-184 pod. It's been replaced with what's known as the "Angry Kitten" ECM pod. This is the first time I've seen these on US F-16CJs on a forward/combat deployment. Angry Kitten was an ECM pod for aggressor squadrons (the planes and pilots that pretend to be the enemy in training), designed to incorporate all the features of the AN/ALQ-167 pod and AN/ULQ-21 countermeasures set in a more modular package to quickly simulate ECM and electronic counter countermeasures (ECCM) capabilities of US adversaries. It appears to have been so good at that, now the US wants to use it in combat, for the first time. Angry Kitten has the same external appearance as the AN/ALQ-167, and while the AN/ALQ-167 has been used in combat before, it had many different variants with different features. Angry Kitten incorporates all of that in one solution, no need for dozens of variants of the AN/ALQ-167 incorporating different combinations of modules of the AN/ULQ-21. Now it's just one pod that can incorporate and switch out all the different modules in the field. And if you look at all the different features the AN/ULQ-21 has on offer, it allows for a wide variety of options for one pod. Frequency range from 0.4-18GHz, with some functionality at 36GHz, false target generation, repeater jamming, noise jamming, and dozens of ECM/ECCM modes and exponential combinations of those modes.

AN/ALQ-167

The combination of the RCS reduction of Have Glass V, and the features of the Angry Kitten ECM pod make for a potent and capable SEAD platform that should not be underestimated, even if it's not a 5th generation stealth aircraft. Iran has a high quantity older air defence systems (HAWK/SA-2/Kub) that would be very deadly otherwise. Just one example is false target generation. Generate a false target with a much bigger radar return than the Have Glass treated F-16CJ, this baits out an air defence system to fire at it, it's location is then known by every aircraft in the vicinity and it can be spot jammed or fired upon. This is a very simplistic and most likely incorrect hypothetical. But it just shows how complex the modern battlefield is, and how control of the electromagnetic spectrum is critical.

More anti-fake-news than news, I guess. But I ran into some video by an ostensible anti-zionist going on and on about how "the new Islamic NATO spells the end of Greater Israel", and thus learned that people somehow actually believe this is a thing.

Is this like hopium meant to help it into existence, or what?

Asia Times - The myth of an emerging Islamic NATO

A former Tory MP joined the Kiev regime's Neo-Nazi "Azov Brigade":

https://www.rt.com/news/632803-uk-mp-ukrainian-nazi-brigade/