Image (of a Jamaat e-Islami campaign rally) and much of the information below is sourced from here and here.
In 2024, the government of Sheikh Hasina, leader of the Awami League, was overthrown in a student-led protest movement which was boosted by US interests. In the interim, Nobel laureate and dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal Muhammad Yunus was made president, and introduced a series of economic and political reforms (e.g. IMF packages and banking sector restructuring) which have sidelined the working class and aligned the country with US financial interests. Regardless of anybody's personal feelings towards Hasina (who did indeed make many mistakes and caused many deaths), it is now very clear that the reason why Hasina was overthrown was not due to a humanitarian, anti-authoritarian impulse, but because Bangladesh had at least some measure of sovereignty while she was in power, as she accepted Chinese infrastructure investments. Certainly, the US is perfectly comfortable with genocidal dictators if they are allied with US interests.
Last week, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party won over two thirds of parliamentary seats - the Awami League was banned from participating at all, and worker-aligned parties were either disallowed or decided to withdraw from participating due to repression. I haven't personally been able to nail down what exact economic/foreign policies they want to introduce, but because of what Yunus has set up in the interim, it might not matter that much - the economic stage has been set such that no matter what party took power, they would have to accept a fait accompli. As Vijay Prashad put it, the competition between the parties is reduced to "which faction will administer austerity"?
One of the many upsetting aspects of this election was that the student movement that helped overthrown Hasina have been forced into irrelevance, despite their legitimate grievances. The "Gen Z" protestors, displeased by the prospect of being ruled by the BNP about as much as the Awami League, found themselves with odd bedfellows, and allied with the now-opposition party (the hardline Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami). They are now in a tough bind, lacking much of the necessary left-wing organization to assert a genuine political project.
This is an instructive moment for many people who are desperate for better conditions in countries that are economically struggling, including Iran with its recent protests. If your country has sovereignty from the US, you walk a very dangerous tightrope - how do you organize for better conditions in such a way that it cannot be co-opted by the US to overthrow your government and put something even more terrible in its wake? Shortly after a jubilant revolutionary moment, you are left without influence, power, or even media representation, and now yet further under the repression of Western imperialism. This is one of the many problems that the population of the non-NATO world will need to find ways to overcome.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
view the rest of the comments
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US military buildup against Iran update: there are 48 tactical fighters on the move towards the Middle East, 24x from bases in Europe and 24x currently crossing the Atlantic. Including F-22 Raptors, by far the most expensive tactical fighter aircraft to fly in the United States Air Force.
From Europe:
From the continental USA:
This would mean the total number of US tactical fighter available in the coming days in the Middle East are:
186 tactical fighter aircraft. If/when the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier arrives, that number will be 240, with an additional 48x F/A-18E/F and 6x EA-18G with TJS pods.
Source
Also expect tonight a flight of 1x E11 BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) and 4x E3 Sentry AWACS/Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft to arrive in Germany. That would total 6x E-3 Sentry...
A U-2S Dragon Lady ISR aircraft has also been forward deployed to the Middle East. This enables communication between the F-22s and F-35s datalink systems, as they use different datalinks that require a translation layer to communicate with each other.
2x of the 4x expected E-3G Sentry AWACS were visible on globe.adsbexchange.com
There are 16x active E-3G Sentries. 4x would be 25% of the available fleet, 6x would be 37.5% of the available fleet.
Images of the F-16CJs from the 169th Fighter Wing of the South Carolina Air National Guard were pictured landing at Lajes Air Base, on the Portuguese island of Terceira in the Atlantic ocean. Resolution is poor, but good enough to make out the AN/ASQ-213 HARM Targeting System (HTS) pod, circled in red, equipped on the F-16CJ, used to geolocate emitters/radars trying to track the F-16CJ, which can then be fired upon by AGM-88E AARGM (Advanced Anti Radiation Guided Missile, and upgrade to the guidance hardware and control algorithms of the AGM-88 HARM, allowing it to be used against relocateable air defence systems using "shutdown" and "pop up" tactics. Due to the upgraded guidance and control, and high speed of the missile, around Mach 2.9, it can be used against time sensitive targets other than radars, such as ballistic missile launchers or helicopters on the ground before takeoff). Wild Weasel tactics, baiting out air defences to reveal their location. Specialised hardware used for this mission already equipped:
The E-11A BACN has arrived at Ramstein Air Force Base, Germany:
This will be the 4th E-11A BACN in the Middle East. The total size of the US fleet is 8. 50% of the E-11A BACN fleet is going to be in the Middle East...
Well then
Yeah, and 50% of the E-11A BACN fleet and 37.5% of the E-3G Sentry fleet that are currently operational are also heading to the Middle East. It's quite ominous.
Now we're at numbers that were similar to Desert Storm 2.
Is this just going to be an air bombing campaign? Or are they going to combine it with special ops plans like in Venezuela but at a larger scale?
Chances the US tries to go in and kill/kidnap a religious leader?
The 2003 invasion of Iraq had more than double the tactical fighters involved, 240 now vs 655 total...
But (massive but) you can do a lot more with a lot less when it comes to modern aircraft and precision guided munitions like the Small Diameter Bomb (SDB), and modern ISR. Only 2/3s of munitions dropped from aircraft in the 2003 invasion of Iraq were precision guided. All munitions are now precision guided. An F-35 can carry 8x SDBs per aircraft, all in internal weapons bays. The F-111s that plinked thousands of tanks during the 1991 Gulf war would usually sortie with 2x 500lb paveway laser guided bombs and required escort that the F-35s won't need, or will need a lot less of. So in a way this force now in 2026 is a lot more powerful than that which provided air cover for the 2003 invasion. 42x F-35s, SDBs, and 12x F-22s are massive force multipliers that weren't around in 2003, only the F-117 was around then at the tactical fighter level. The F-117 is far inferior to the F-35.
If the decision is made to strike, I expect this to be airstrikes only for the majority of the time. Decapitation strikes and killing political leadership is always an option if "regime change" is the goal. I think US Special Forces will only go into Iran to seize the uranium enriched to 60% in a case of instability, government breakdown or other actors in the region making a beeline for it. The Taliban has already made noise about "supporting Iran". Maybe they are actually crazy enough to try get the uranium if Iran's government breaks down.
Copium Iran falls but the Taliban nuke Tel Aviv, would be the most insane self own in history
I'm including Israel's fighters. Must bring us up closer to 400-500 right?
Israel have 288 tactical fighter aircraft, 174x F-16s of various blocks and specifications, 66x F-15s of various variants, and 48x F-35Is.
That would be 488 total tactical fighters. And much more importantly, 102 stealth aircraft (90 F-35 and 12 F-22). For context, only 59 operational F-117s were ever built, a vastly inferior aircraft to modern stealth planes, it didn't even have a functional radio antenna on missions, no radar, no radar warning receiver, no electronic countermeasures/jamming, no air to air ability. The F-117 was essentially a manned reusable "stealth cruise missile" that relied completely on other aircraft for escort and support, and flew in and out on a pre planned flight path, a vulnerability that could be exploited if you knew the flight path (That's how the Serbs shot one down). Modern 5th generation stealth aircraft are completely different, full of advanced sensors and equipment... There is no context or historical parallel for what over 100 advanced 5th generation stealth fighters can do if a joint Israeli - US operation happens. 90 F-35s is 720 SDBs.
There are rumours that a further 18x F-15Es will arrive in the coming days, which would put the US total at 258, and the US - Israel total at 506.
And we can probably assume that even in the best case scenario of Iran having Chinese radar tech, the US will play around any radar shadow these may have and will find the gaps.
All of this doesn't solve their ship problem. I do not believe they can stop a ship from being sunk in a full confrontation. The US will establish their usual air supremacy and capability to bomb the country however they please but it's going to cost them more than it's ever cost them in the past.
The ships are far away, over 700km for the aircraft carrier. This limits Iranian options to target them, to anti ship weapons with a range of over 700km, anti ship ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Iranian cruise missiles aren't stealthy, they're easy to spot and shoot down. A bigger problem for the US would be a swarm of long range cruise missiles. Iranian anti ship ballistic missiles are the bigger issue for the US, but long range kill chains are difficult (the US only needs to shoot down missiles on target) and aircraft carriers are protected by AEGIS ballistic missile defence, SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors for ballistic missiles. How many Iranian ballistic missiles are both anti ship capable and have a range over 700km? That limits the Iranian arsenal to more exotic weapons limited in number. I think what could happen is if Iran manages to fire enough long range anti ship ballistic missiles on target, they exhaust US interceptor stocks of SM-3 and SM-6 quickly, forcing a retreat. That would probably be a realistic best case scenario for Iran.
Any opening US strike would also target Iranian missile bases and anti ship capabilities. That's the big question, how good is US left of launch defeat? That has a big say in how many missiles and drones US forces will have to intercept.
If there are any US warships in the Persian Gulf however, they are very vulnerable if Iran can get shots off. Those LCS ships on anti mine duty for example.
700km is not far away when an Abu Mahdi missile can launch from subs.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2026/how-irans-abu-mahdi-anti-ship-missile-could-pose-new-threat-to-u-s-naval-forces-in-arabian-sea
Is there any evidence that this missile can be submarine launched? All I'm getting is AI slop.
Iran really only has 4 submarines with the range to leave the Persian Gulf, 3x Kilo class from Russia and 1x Fateh class domestically built submarine. Their 20-30 mini submarines are for the Persian Gulf.
Iran say it has 1000km range from land and 2500km from submarine. There's been no demonstration of a sub launch though to my knowledge.
It's regime change or bust, in my opinion. They will throw the kitchen sink at Iran, even using nukes if all else fails. But they will likely start with targeted strikes to encourage another internal rebellion. The current massive US buildup will (for the moment) exist to deter Iranian responses.
Well the F-22s are finally moving. If the Ford moving across the Atlantic is just a distraction, then we could even see a strike starting this weekend. Would be a little nuts to do that during the start of Ramadan (which begins either tomorrow or Thursday), but they're not called the Great Satan for nothing!
The Ford GSG is probably a lot closer than I thought or most thought. There was evidence it started moving on February 13th (which I posted in a reply to Mk Ultra wide) and the US Navy just posted this graphic, showing it close to the Strait of Gibraltar:
It might not even go through the Red Sea to Oman, it may just stay in the Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah for instance. Aircraft can make the trip to Iran with mid air refuelling if needed.
I think the US would probably wait until the end of the Winter Olympics, if the decision is made to strike. But the reality is that they can strike at anytime.
It boggles the mind to imagine the amount of financial resources employed in manufacturing and maintaining 240 tactical fighters. The amount of people who could be lifted out of poverty, the progress that could be made in science... it's shocking how much humanity as a whole could be in a much better place if all of these resources were put to good use. The US is truly the Great Satan, the greatest obstacle to human development in modern history.
No need to imagine, the cost per flight hour is public information:
You can also see just how much more expensive the F-22 is to fly than any other tactical fighter, which is why their deployment is significant.
in world history tbh
do you by any chance know which NATO countries are supplying aircraft for this buildup? or is it all US aircraft?
All US aircraft. The UK has deployed a few aircraft to Qatar and Cyprus in a "defensive capacity". And there's obviously Israel with 200+ fighter jets, of which 48x are F-35Is. And their air launched ballistic missiles.
i see. would be interesting to see what other air bases are used in europe apart from italy and germany. i am thinking about how a war with iran will be spun as "trumps war" and the eu will just pretend like nato supplies are not being used for it. showing the interconnected nature of nato would be quite useful for organising
Really NATO bases, islands part of NATO countries' territory, etc, are only being used as logistical pit stops, all the hardware and munitions in an offensive capacity will be USA (and Israel if they join in). The UK jets will probably shoot down sone incoming drones and cruise missiles. Europe wants these NATO bases a lot more than the US does, Bush Jr wanted to pull the US out of these bases during his presidency 20 years ago and the Europeans begged the US to stay.
The one exception to that is Diego Garcia, which may be used to house offensive aircraft/bombers.
That's a lot of aircrafts, so is it safe to say strikes will happen when the aircraft carrier arrives ?
I know they aim for total air supremacy, but at such a numbers, I guess they really want no missiles to hit the genocidal entity? I say that with barely any knowledge of all that stuff work, you're absolutely doing a lot to this community!
The US doesn't need the second aircraft carrier really. They can start airstrikes before it arrives if it wants. It's impossible to predict an if or when, but F-22s are an ominous sign.
Yes I expect left of launch defeat of missile bases, ballistic missile launchers, etc to be a big part of any opening strikes. The US has a lot of advanced cruise missiles with two way datalinks (Tomahawk, JASSM) that can be retargeted in flight and hit both stationary and mobile targets for an opening strike action against missile bases to entomb them , air defence systems, command and control and other time sensitive targets before they decay, etc.
42x F-35s, 24x F-16CJ and 12x EA-18Gs with NGJ pods is a massive suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) force, honestly anyone except for China is very vulnerable to that. 42x F-35 can launch 336 Small Diameter Bombs (SDBs) for example. F-22s vs the Iranian Air Force is overkill, again everyone except China with the J-20s and J-35s would be very vulnerable. 12x F-22s can launch 72x AIM-120D-3 AMRAAM radar guided long range air to air missiles, these are very long range missiles fired from stealth aircraft. The AIM-120D beat the previous US record of 127mi/204km in a test when fired from an F-15C, the AIM-120D-3 is a misnomer, it's actually a new variant of the AIM-120 with increased range that should have been called AIM-120E or AIM-120F, everything about the missile is different from the AIM-120D and it just shares the D name for budgetary reasons. The F-22 broke the F-15Cs range record sometime in 2024.
Your depth of knowledge on this is stuff is so impressive and enlightening. Thank you for sharing!