MarmiteLover123

Here are the words straight from Putin's mouth.

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It is not a strategic weapon, it is not a weapon of mass destruction.

Yes this strike is absolutely calling Putin's bluff, along with France now saying that Ukraine can use their version of the Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile for deep strikes into Russian territory. The ball is absolutely in Putin's court, and now we wait to see if he really will target NATO installations with CPS weapons like Oreshnik, or any other IRBMs or MRBMs Russia may have that we do not know about.

NATO's nuclear doctrine is set to be revised (apparently with regards to the B61 tactical nuclear weapon) after Russia unveiled the novel Oreshnik IRBM, so there is an element of nuclear posturing. How real it is, we'll only know once the missiles, bombs and strategic bomber aircraft start flying...

It could easily be converted a nuclear weapon if the need arises, but that is not the current intention.

Putin claimed in his second press conference that Oreshnik is a novel, strictly non-nuclear system that is not a WMD, developed very rapidly, describing it as a precision-strike weapon capable of hitting targets across Europe.

So for now the intention does not seem to be a nuclear weapon, but a CPS weapon.

It's extremely irresponsible and NATO has decided to continue these attacks. I have no idea what the next target will be, Putin did say that military assets of countries supplying the weapons and intelligence for these attacks are potential targets. If I was stationed in a US military base in Europe somewhere, I would be very worried right now.

That is true, though they should be easily able to create and deploy one if required. The first candidate for a CPS weapon was actually a MIRV capable Trident SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) with conventional warheads/kinetic energy penetrators, or tungsten submunitions. This idea was raised during the Bush Jr administration. This was eventually abandoned as it was theorised to appear too similar to a nuclear weapons launch. The Obama administration did prototype a CPS weapons system based on the MIRV capable Minuteman III ICBM in 2010 though, so the option for such a weapon is still on the table, even as the United States' hypersonic weapons program, that was set to be the prime candidate for a CPS weapons system instead of ICBM and SLBM based systems, is in shambles.

A constant conventional missile exchange between NATO and Russia easily has the ability to snowball into a nuclear conflict though...

Yes I read Putins speech and trust that a warning would come.

For me it's not about trust, trust can be easily broken. For me it's that there's a mutual interest not to start a nuclear conflict (at least I hope so, despite all the risk taking by NATO), and an Oreshnik launch, or similar CPS launch, could easily be mistaken for a nuclear weapons launch, so there will be advanced warnings to prevent any cases of "mistaken identity" with regards to it being a conventional weapon or a nuclear weapon.

This shit keeps me up at night.

It also does, and I don't even live in a NATO country or Russia.

We see that work is active around the world on developing high‐precision conventional weapons systems that in their strike capabilities come close to strategic nuclear weapons. Countries that have such weapons substantially increase their offensive capability.

• Vladimir Putin, 19 June 2013.

CPS weapons allow "to realize such opportunities as the creation of high precision strategic weapons with non-nuclear warheads and a practical global range. Russia can create non-nuclear, high precision weapons based on intercontinental rockets in the event that the USA also works on designing such a weapon".

• Commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Sergey Karakaev, 31 December 2012.

Russia has been warning NATO for over a decade now. NATO needs to start listening.

Posadas walked so Blinken could run.

In "positive" news, at least Oreshnik is not a nuclear weapon, so if Russia does decide to fire one into Europe, the nukes won't start flying immediately. Russia has committed to giving advanced warnings for Oreshnik IRBM strikes, they say in order to minimise civilian casualties. I think it's so an Oreshnik strike is not mistaken for a nuclear strike, when the missile is launched. CPS weapons change the escalation model and calculus in a potential NATO - Russia conflict.

But yes, it does seem that the US, and certain NATO members in the UK and France, are determined to die on this hill, the rest of us be damned. They are prepared to directly participate in attacks against Russia while hiding behind Ukraine as a shield, and risk a potential nuclear war. It's absolutely maddening and anxiety inducing.

If the weapons start flying between Europe and Russia, I hope you make it to safety.

More alleged ATACMS strikes on Kursk, Russia by the United States and Ukraine within the last two hours. It seems that the use of the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapons system by Russia, in the MIRV and submunition capable Oreshnik IRBM, has not deterred the US and Ukraine from launching strikes and attacks against Russia within Russia's internationally recognised borders. Expect a Russian response if these do indeed turn out to be ATACMS missiles.

Video:

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You can see the alleged ATACMS missile in it's terminal phase of flight, as well as hearing an apparent sonic boom, just before the explosion at the beginning of the video, I'll screenshot it and post it below:

Also in case anyone missed it on the old thread:

A post on Iran's missile test as of November 8th, with a cool video at the end of you dislike reading long posts and just want to watch a cool video

Its proximity to BRICS+ member South Africa may also be significant, noting the colour revolution in Bangladesh earlier this year exerting influence near India and China.

South Africa has already deployed troops as part of a force to fight the ISIS affiliates located there for years now, this was after Wagner failed operationally there. (Yes, that Wagner PMC ). Though it's questionable if we're deployed there to actually fight terrorism, or just protect the oil and gas fields for Total in a sub-imperialist role. As an eternal pessimist, I'd bet on sub-imperialism.