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submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Two unexploded Israeli missiles that was fired at Evin prison were defused and recovered. - Mehr New Agency

Yesterday also a Israeli Hermes drone was shot down with its components damaged but fairly recognizable and some undamaged. It's payload was also recovered, Spike missiles, if I recall correctly. It used Iridium LEO for communication. Anyway, Iranian engineers are going to have field day reverse-engineering those components.

As folks here said correctly, there were no manned aircraft shoot down at all, or any pilot captured because not a single image or video came out.

Regarding ceasefire, I believe it's not going to last long because it would be really bad for Israel. Iran now knows a lot about its weaknesses and almost all people are against Israel and US now. If the Iran's rulers act smartly they can cement this national unity and garner massive nation-wide support. However, presently Iran still can't do what Yemenis can do like intervening to help the Resistance members due to lack of support among general public for the leadership itself.

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[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 week ago

U.S. Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff: 'Even if Iran has already enriched uranium to 90% (weapons-grade), they cannot weaponize it because we destroyed the conversion facility at Esfahan — needed to 'convert' the material before enrichmemt and to 'metalicize' it after enrichment'

Witkoff clearly does not understand the nuclear weaponization process. Yes, the Esfahan site was being used to turn yellowcake into UF6 for enrichment. This 'first step' can now no longer be done, but it doesn't really matter, considering Iran already has ~400kg of 60% enriched uranium.

As for the last step in the weaponization process, which is turning the uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas into uranium metal for use in a workable warhead, this process can quite easily be done in small covert laboratories and research sites, a dedicated facility is not needed, and Iran conducted many such tests in the early 2000's.

So, in short: As long as the centrifuges are intact (which seems to be the case), Iran can enrich its existing stockpile to 90% and create a warhead within months, provided that the blueprints of a weapon already exist.

  • Telegram
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[-] [email protected] 69 points 1 week ago

Supreme Court backs parents seeking to opt their kids out of LGBTQ books in elementary schools

The Supreme Court on Friday bolstered religious rights as it ruled in favor of parents who objected to LGBTQ-themed books that a Maryland county approved for use in elementary school classrooms.

In a 6-3 vote, the court backed the parents' claim that the Montgomery County Board of Education's decision not to allow an opt-out for their children violated their religious rights under the Constitution's First Amendment, which protects religious expression.

"The board's introduction of the 'LGBTQ+ inclusive' storybooks, along with its decision to withhold opt-outs, places an unconstitutional burden on the parents' rights to the free exercise of their religion," Justice Samuel Alito wrote for the court.

The Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority that is often receptive to religious claims. The liberal justices dissented.

So this means my kid doesn't have to get flunked in history class when they teach "sTaLiN sTaRvEd tHe uKrAinIAns!!!" in class, right?

I assume this mean evangelical nuts like my parents will be allowed to pull their kids out of class when the topic of evolution or geology comes up, god bless America.

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[-] [email protected] 69 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

They call this "the Hillary"

Chuck Schumer hospitalized for dehydration

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) was hospitalized on Wednesday morning after becoming lightheaded at the gym, a spokesperson told Axios.

He was treated for dehydration and is back at work in the Capitol, the spokesperson said.

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[-] [email protected] 69 points 1 week ago

I find it funny how some Malaysian states banned the use of single-use plastics years ago and are planning to phase-out use nationally by 2030 but we continued to accept Western plastic waste.

Malaysia will stop accepting U.S. plastic waste, creating a dilemma for California

Malaysia will ban plastic waste imports from the U.S. starting Tuesday because of America’s failure to abide by the Basel Convention treaty on international waste transfers, in a move that could have significant consequences for California.

Malaysia emerged as a major destination for U.S. waste after China banned American waste imports in 2018. California shipped 864 shipping containers, or more than 10 million pounds of plastic waste, to Malaysia in 2024, according to the Basel Action Network, an advocacy group. That was second only to Georgia among U.S. states.

Malaysia to set stricter plastic import controls

According to U.S. Census Bureau data, the country exported 35,316 tons of plastic scrap to Malaysia in 2024. United Nations Comtrade data shows that from 2021-2024, Malaysia received more plastic scrap imports from around the globe than any other non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development) country.

“Our people and environment in Malaysia have suffered greatly from the pollution caused by imported plastic and electronic waste,” says Wong Pui Yi, BAN researcher from Kuala Lumpur. “Other countries in Southeast Asia are likewise being harmed by foreign plastic waste daily. We sincerely hope that exporting countries will help us put a stop to waste dumping and trafficking.

“But for these new regulations to be successful, the government must enforce them transparently, swiftly prosecute those who violate the law and close any loopholes that may arise, including clamping down on corruption. We must remain vigilant and continue to spot-check the system with intelligence-led searches and seizures.”

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[-] [email protected] 69 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Esmail Qaani head of IRGC's elite Quds force, he's definitely alive and was indeed reported dead by Israel so who knows which others aren't.

Here is a report of his death: https://archive.is/V9BOy

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Lots of talk about Iran's nuclear facilities. Quick breakdown:

  • Fordow: the main enrichment halls and cascade facilities directly targeted by 12x GBU-57 MOPs, Iran filled the entrances and exits with soil beforehand. Israel targeted the entrances and exits afterwards.
  • Isfahan: no attempt to directly target the underground facilities, underground enrichment halls/cascade facilities and tunnels. The entrances and exits were targeted by Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles to entomb the facility, along with the above ground facilities. According to the IAEA, this is where most of the 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium was stored. There are also rumours of a new facility near Isfahan.
  • Natanz, old facility: Above ground facilities destroyed by Israel, the main enrichment hall targeted by 2x GBU-57 MOPs.
  • Natanz new facility: no attempt to target it. However, Iran hadn't moved any centrifuges or enriched uranium there before the war started.

Which is what a lot of people are talking about the strikes only setting the Iranian nuclear programme by "months". Even if all strikes were successful, Iran could move new or existing centrifuges and enriched uranium to the new Natanz facility which wasn't even touched. They could excavate the entrances and exits at Isfahan and take all of the centrifuges and enriched uranium out of it, which will be undamaged. Israel will likely be looking for a "Lebanon style ceasefire" with a mechanism that allows them to take military action in certain circumstances. A hypothetical mechanism, along the lines of keeping nuclear facilities entombed, otherwise Israel can take military action on any attempts to excavate material or move material to the new facility in Natanz.

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The bars are almost empty (on a Friday night of all nights), and the pizza places full, near the Pentagon and White House at the moment, for those who care about tracking that. I know some people on here do use it as an indicator.

Source

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago

Seeing the media uncritically report the Iranian Sleeper Cell story and people taking it at face value reminds me of something I read in Dirty Truths by Parenti about the "Libyan Hit Squads".

"On ABC-TV evening news Frank Reynolds started-blasting stated that it was "known" that Libyan agents were "in this country for the purpose of assassinating the highest officials in the U.S. government." CBS anchor Dan Rather announced on December 4, "A squad of terrorists infiltrated the United States on a mission to kill the president and his top aides."

"Needless to say, the nonexistent hit team(s) never materialized. It remained for TV Guide (6/12/1986) to admit, in a cover story entitled: "Why American TV Is so Vulnerable to Foreign Propaganda," that the "assassination plot" consisted of nothing but wild conjectures. TV Guide then disinformed its millions of readers by asserting that the whole incident was probable evidence of a KGB campaign to use alarmist rumors "to destabilize public opinion in the West." Or perhaps the story was planted by Qaddafi himself, who "is no madman" but "a shrewd Bedouin" "who is sitting back and laughing over this.""

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro reaffirms that #Iran is the beginning of humanity, and Venezuela maintains its support for the nation, and peace must reign.

[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Finland news: Business lobby proposes cutting public holidays to fund defence spending

The bougies want to make the public holidays of Ephiphany day and Ascension day always be on a weekend, in order to leech more capital from the working class under the convenient guise of paying for NATO's defence demands. EK, the main finance ghoul lobby in finland, has also been pushing for fewer public holidays for ages, but literally no one has supported it. Now they finally have a crisis to exploit. Personally I think this is likely to go through with little resistance, because, you know, the russians. The unions and the left party might release a strongly worded letter or two, but likely do nothing about it, since they broadly support NATO's extortion.

For context, Epiphany and Ascension can fall on a weekday (which is obviously based), for example this year epiphany fell on a monday (3 day weekend lfg) and ascension on a thursday (take friday off = 4 day weekend lfg). Idk and idgaf what the original meaning of the holiday is, a free day is a free day.

How do you say finland in maoist standard english btw? I can't figure it out.

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Alhamdulillah they got the APC footage. Video ~~coming shortly~~ on TankieTube

https://tankie.tube/w/qv9zpGm9CQvQxiJouzNQwG

Military correspondent for Israel's Channel 14 Hillel Biton-Rosen, citing a senior Israeli officer talking about the Khan Yunis ambush:

"The documentation is shameful, and to say the least, it does not add dignity to the IDF. The division commander was required, according to training, to run over the militants if they got too close, or at least shoot them with the machine gun on the Namer armored vehicle. This is not how a high-ranking officer is expected to behave on the battlefield."

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/38443

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago

‘Alligator Alcatraz’ sparks outcry from indigenous tribes as construction speeds ahead Hexbear Post

Construction is moving rapidly on a controversial migrant detention center deep in the Florida Everglades nicknamed "Alligator Alcatraz," despite growing concerns from Native American tribes who call the area home.

The facility is being built on an old airstrip at the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport, roughly an hour and 45 minutes west of Miami. The state is using emergency powers to take over the county-owned land and construct a center that can detain up to 5,000 migrants.

Leonard Peltier’s Story Isn’t Over Yet Hexbear Post

Earlier this year, it seemed as though the final chapter of Leonard Peltier’s story had been written. The eighty-year-old is serving two consecutive life sentences for the 1975 killing of two F.B.I. agents, Ronald Williams and Jack Coler, which he says he didn’t commit. Having exhausted legal channels for appeal, and been denied parole, it appeared that he would die in prison. But, during the final moments of Joe Biden’s Presidential Administration, Biden commuted Peltier’s sentence to home confinement. Peltier is now home, at the Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation, in North Dakota.

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[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Communists won the Vietnam war, communists fought the Korean war to a standstill, communists kicked fascists out of southern Africa, and communists ended WW1. Communists industrialised vast swathes of the formerly-colonised world and decided that nuclear weapons were necessary to defend it, so acquired them without hesitation. Communists do not declare fatwas against possessing the only weapon capable of making the colonisers think twice. That is why secular nationalism has been so comprehensively rooted out in the region by the entity and its backers; because it is a threat like no other, because it thinks rationally, because it is capable of winning.

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago

can't wait for the us to launch a symbolic attack in response to iran's symbolic attack, which iran will afterwards retaliate with another symbolic attack.. as tel aviv gets bombed in the mean time

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago

Dozens of Palestinian women locked up in Israeli prisons - Prensa Latina

Article

Ramallah, Jun 24 (Prensa Latina) At least 47 Palestinian women are today behind bars in Israeli prisons, including two pregnant women and two teenagers, the Prisoners' Club denounced today.

In a statement, the institution detailed that most of them are detained in Damon prison.

Since the beginning of the Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip, on October 7, 2023, more than 560 Palestinian women were arrested by the security forces, it revealed.

However, he warned, there is no exact figure of how many were arrested in the coastal enclave.

The Club accused the army of using many of them as a means of pressuring family members to turn themselves in.

Recently, the Palestinian Prisoner Information Office denounced the inhumane conditions suffered by female detainees in Damon.

The agency noted that 31 women are crammed into four cramped rooms, lacking the most basic necessities of life.

He warned that they suffer severe food shortages and receive only five slices of bread per day. They are also affected by a lack of hygiene supplies and clothing, it said.

To this must be added poor health conditions, the Office stressed, accusing the prison authorities of denying them basic medical services.

In April, the Palestinian Ministry of Women's Affairs published a report documenting the mistreatment and humiliation to which women are subjected in prisons in the neighboring nation.

The country's prison authorities have intensified their repressive policies against Palestinian women through “torture, sexual violence and enforced disappearance as systematic tools,” it warned.

Minister Mona al-Khalili said that the abuses against women prisoners are not simply individual violations, but rather a systematic policy that uses their bodies as a weapon of war and their dignity as a stage for collective punishment.

We are facing a repressive system that deliberately humiliates women from the moment of their arrest until after their release, through torture, medical negligence, harassment, forced disappearance and solitary confinement, she stressed.

[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago

Just saw a random ass tweet that made some interesting points about the Middle East and the ilusive Pivot to Asia

The ‘pivot to Asia’ never materializes because it doesn’t actually make any sense. It’s based on a loose analogy between what the US does in the Middle East and what the US could be doing in Asia that doesn’t hold.

The analogy is essentially:

Taiwan is Israel/China is Iran

America’s Asian allies are the Gulf states

Intellectual property is oil/Island disputes are religious conflict

So you can just move ‘US security provision + financial interests’ from one region to the other. Oil for IP.

This is why the US insists Asia has certain features that it clearly does not have - e.g., that sea lanes are under threat (has to be true to require US naval presence), that China cannot innovate and just steals IP (has to be true for IP to play the financial role of oil), etc.

There’s nothing at all to be gained by anyone in Asia from the US playing a bigger role. The Middle East had very specific needs because it’s full of oil producing states that can’t handle their own defense. It’s the nature of oil that makes the region a place of instability.

There’s no ‘larger role’ the US can play in Asia. There’s no way to trade increased security provision for a greater financial stake. The region is dominated by trade in manufactures, which is much more difficult to disrupt than the oil trade, and China is at the center of it.

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Interesting how the pendulum has swung the other was so far that the u.s is losing support in both Japan and Korea over the illegal attack on Iran regarding how Prime Minister Ishiba and President Lee aren't going to the NATO war crimes summit in the Hague.

Looks like the Pacific may be chosing peace over conflict unless there's more fucking meddling in the rights of those nations to charter their own fates. side-eye-1 side-eye-2

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago

IOF goon folding like a lawn chair after getting sniped (plus a whole bunch of other footage of them getting owned):
https://xcancel.com/BIG__Brother7/status/1937540186537099555

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago

OK, so looks like Iran is making a restrained play, imo the "correct" move. Strike an already emptied out Qatari airbase used by the Americans, totally level the thing, but don't actually kill any Americans. You can show you retaliated, that Iran still has capabilities to respond, but you don't antagonise the Americans further nor move "up" the escalation ladder to more crazy stuff. Then Iran can get back to celebrating Pride Month by continuing to bomb Tel Aviv, and Trump can declare a "win" without further American response. Will this work? Who the fuck knows. Maybe the Americans stay out, maybe they don't, but Iran's got a lot of options to respond if the Americans don't stop.

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago

Iranian Parliament Approves Suspension of Cooperation With UN Nuclear Agency - Telesur English

Article

The decision follows U.S. airstrikes targeting several Iranian nuclear facilities, which violated the United Nations Charter. On Wednesday, Iran’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The decision follows U.S. airstrikes on Sunday targeting several Iranian nuclear facilities, which Iranian officials have condemned as a violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.

“While the Israeli regime waged its war of aggression against Iran starting June 13, the U.S. intervened and carried out airstrikes on three nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan in the early hours of Sunday,” stated the document approved by Iran’s legislature.

“Iran has stated that it reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests and people, and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran declared that the attack violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and will not stop Iran from pursuing its peaceful nuclear program,” it added.

At the same time, Iran’s parliament accused IAEA Director Rafael Grossi of issuing “false” reports and collaborating in hostile actions against Iran. In response, Iran filed a formal complaint with the United Nations against Grossi, alleging his involvement in Israel’s aggression against Iranian territory.

Iranian lawmakers also demanded compensation from the Israeli government for damages and called for the establishment of an international tribunal to try Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes.

On June 16, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei announced that the country was drafting a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while reaffirming that Iran “remains opposed to the development of nuclear weapons.”

Iran joined the NPT in 1970, a treaty that obligates signatories to refrain from developing nuclear weapons and to accept inspections by the U.N. nuclear agency.

Once approved by parliament, the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA must still be ratified by the Guardian Council of the Revolution and signed by the country’s president.

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[-] [email protected] 67 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

is there any reason to believe that

a) mamdani will actually win in november despite both the DNC and GOP working against him, in addition to Cuomo and Adams running as independents AND

b) if he gets elected in november, the NYPD won't just hold his family hostage and threaten to harass/harm/kill them until he resigns or transmogrifies into a more pliant servant of capital AND

c) he won't shoot himself numerous times in the back of the head?

or am i just being a doomer? it feels impossible to me that the bourgeoisie are just gonna sit by and let this guy do good things in the largest city in the empire

[-] [email protected] 68 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

mamdani will actually win in november despite both the DNC and GOP working against him, in addition to Cuomo and Adams running as independents AND

Adams and Cuomo have no chance to win the general, winning New York is about name recognition and the dem vote, that's it

The elites will have to pull some truly unprecedented levels of corruption, voter fraud and downright illegal shit to shut Mamdani down, I don't even know what that would look like, it would destroy New York City politics

They're panicking for a reason, Zohran is a lock

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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago

Does your oomphie speak entirely in historical analogies? Do they reject the announced political objectives of all states - knowing them to be manipulable - only to substitute them with a neocon-tier understanding of "national interest" rather than the class interest of their ruling elite? Do they propose purging everyone who gets a prediction wrong because results proved them ideologically impure and unreliable? Do they attack the source of information rather than evaluating its claims? Do they genuinely in the year of our lord 2025 believe in the existence of trustworthy journalists that rely on anonymous high ranking sources? Have they become dissatisfied with merely proofreading the headlines of the New York Times and begun taking its IDF-sourced claims at face value?

Today we are raising awareness about Mearsheimer brain. Some of our most venerable shitposters - even woman and squirrels - have been consumed by the social libertarian wiles of popular alternative media figures. Check on your shitposters today. You are not immune to propaganda. Gambling addiction is real and it gets even worse when you can't go properly broke. #mearsheimeraddiction #readabookaday #womanisaflower #launchamissileaday #nuketelaviv #againstgeopoliticsgooning

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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago
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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago
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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago
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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago

I drove myself ever so slightly mad calculating some very rough estimates related to the US bombings of Iran, and how they compare to various other US equipment, as part of a broader discussion, but it was buried deep-ish in a thread, so I'm linking it for visibility - https://hexbear.net/comment/6278398 (if this isn't allowed - feel free to delete this comment, or I can just delete it myself)

Will welcome any commentary, I feel like I must have fucked up something with the numbers or my assumptions, even if they are very rough estimates, but I dunno. I could never make it as an accountant, respect the number troops for all they do (well, except for the McKinsey ghouls calculating how many people to fire I guess)

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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago

Another CLASSIC slimy headline from the nyslimes

[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago

The Qatari Foreign Ministry:

The attack that targeted Al Udeid Air Base is a blatant violation of Qatar's sovereignty and airspace and of international law

The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs reserves the right to respond directly in a manner commensurate with the form and scale of the flagrant aggression and in accordance with international law.

The Qatari Foreign Ministry calls for an immediate cessation of all military operations and a serious return to the negotiating table and dialogue.

EAT SHIT SCUM che-smile

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[-] [email protected] 66 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

I’m shocked

“Member of Syrian Ministry of Defence involved in suicide bomb attack at Mar Elias Church in Al-Duwailaa“ - Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (lol)

https://www.syriahr.com/en/364788/

If you’re wondering what the “provocations against Islamic Dawa and Muslims by Damascus’ Christians” were, it was a group kicking a dawah truck out of their neighborhood. These vehicles are, basically, giant speakers mounted on cars, vans, or trucks that spew propaganda inciting against Christians, Shia, and Alawites. These are implicitly government sanctioned and are only pushed back on by the communities they target, rather than official bodies

https://t.me/syriajusticearchive/3625

https://t.me/syriajusticearchive/3646

I believe this is the specific instance that was referenced by the group claiming the bombing. Per the caption, it was actually Muslims who initiated the confrontation with those railing against Christians

https://t.me/syriajusticearchive/3645

I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure these weren’t commonplace (especially in Damascus) under Assad, if they existed at all. The previous government certainly wasn’t referring to terror attacks as “martyrdom operations”. Could an Arabic speaker confirm the words said match the headline?

“General Security” Official Calls Church Bombing a “Martyrdom Operation” Live on Air

https://t.me/syriajusticearchive/6468

[-] [email protected] 65 points 6 days ago

trump-who-must-go has figured out a way to slap 500% tariffs on the world while having the libs on board

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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Three recent events to do with Iran that I believe may be interlinked:

First, Iran has begun excavation operations at Isfahan, the underground nuclear site where only the entrances were targeted. No GBU-57 MOPs deployed here. They have opened one of these entrances today, visible on satellite imagery. It is no longer entombed. Iran may have transferred enriched uranium and centrifuges stored inside the facility, likely undamaged. Unless this movement has been co-ordinated with the United States for a potential handover of enriched material (I doubt this), this is an important development, as it could be considered a breach of the ceasefire.

The virtual US embassy in Iran has released a statement advising US citizens to leave Iran immediately while the airspace is open to commerical and civilian aircraft. Archive source to avoid data capture by a US government website

Event: As of June 26, 2025, Iranian airspace has been partially reopened, although commercial travel from Tehran and other major hubs may be disrupted. U.S. citizens should monitor local media and consult commercial airlines for more information on outbound flights from Iran. U.S. citizens planning to depart Iran should proceed by land to Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, or Turkmenistan, if conditions are safe.

Leave Iran immediately. Have a plan to leave Iran without relying on U.S. government assistance. If you cannot leave Iran, choose a safe place in your residence or another safe building. Take some food, water, medicine, and other essential items with you. Keep your cell phone charged and stay in touch with family and friends to keep them informed of your situation.

Another E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft has been transferred to Saudi Arabia. Remember, there are still many US fighter aircraft (likely over 200) forward deployed to the Middle East, and the 4x B-52 Stratofortress bombers and 6x F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft have not left Diego Garcia.

Trump's tweet about Khamenei is likely not about him or his speech at all. I'd guess it's a signal to Iran given the developments at Isfahan. This is a developing and dynamic situation, if the US or Israel do believe Iran has excavated enriched uranium and intact centrifuges, without oversight by the USA, it could escalate fast. Again, could possibly based on these assumptions, not will.

Update: preliminary and unconfirmed reports of explosions or air defence activity in Tabriz, Malard, Eslamshahr, Karaj, and the Western parts of Tehran. Updating to say it's most likely over cautious air defence.

Video of said activity

Wonder if this is just the usual events since the beginning of the ceasefire (air defence firing as a precaution), or something else.

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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Source: resistance news network

(Update: according to the Israeli army, the missile has been intercepted. Sucks but if it keeps settlers afraid, fine by me)

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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago

Iranian authorities announce the confiscation of a truck carrying a large number of drones and the arrest of a Mossad agent west of Tehran.

(Tasnim)

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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The latest Simplicius: Humiliation: Israel Tucks Tail After Failing All Objectives in War against Victorious Iran

I think the title's blatant triumphalism betrays how there's a battle in the media over the portrayal of the conflict, with both sides basically doing their own victory dances. I will say that the Israeli side does look a little depressed as the fragility of their society and economy and military has been laid bare, and there does appear to be a psychological blow to Zionists that may or may not translate into lasting change (e.g. mass evacuations). But like, you shouldn't have to constantly insist that you've won a conflict; the results should speak for themselves beyond all doubt. So I'm personally comfortable calling this a draw, but let's see what Simplicius has to say about it.

  • Simplicius's previous argument that the strike on Fordow [using 14 bunker busters and not 6 like I thought? I'm not sure if I'm just losing my mind but I thought the US said 30 missiles and 6 bunker busters?] was an allowed strike seems strengthened by the fact that Iran responded with what was basically certain to be an allowed strike on Al Udeid.
  • All parties involved got an off-ramp from a conflict that, even if it wasn't going particularly great for Iran, was going very badly for Israel - you don't want to get involved in an attrition war if you are a tiny state with infrastructure that can be easily disabled and you are opposing a country with ten times as many people and thousands of ballistic missiles.
  • Iran had already taken out a significant number of Israeli heavy drones (combat-capable, rather than merely surveillance), such as Hermes drones. It's not clear how many Israel has, but we're talking a couple dozen of each type, not hundreds.
  • These Israeli drones and missiles were the primary method of destruction on sensitive military targets. As more were shot down, Israeli jets would have needed to move further into Iran and risk being shot down.
  • There is still little evidence that Israel was capable of flying over Iranian territory for any meaningful distance. The only evidence we have is that of Israeli jets over a coastal city. All Israeli combat footage over Iran was taken from drones. Now, we have seen Israeli fuel tanks wash up on the Caspian Sea coast, showing that Israel flew in from the north to bombard Tehran, rather than flying all the way through Iran to hit it. This isn't to be like "See! Israel has been fricking owned!!" because like, they can still bombard Tehran and do heavy damage - it's just important to clarify how that was done so that people don't learn the wrong lessons.
  • Despite Trump's insistence, it's increasingly clear that if Iran's nuclear program has been set back at all (which it might not have) then it is only briefly. It is well-known that Iran's enriched uranium was shifted out of Fordow, and its location is not publically known. Some (in American media, even!) go further to say that Fordow was basically untouched and that the centrifuges are fine, according to leaks from White House intelligence.
  • Simplicius says that the US only has - well, had - 20 GBU-57s, and if that's true, then their production rate must be truly glacial. With 14 dropped, there are now 6 remaining, which is insufficient for any kind of broad campaign against Iranian underground capabilities, especially if 14 of them were dropped on Fordow and it was fine, or at least not obliterated. [This point by Simplicius seems flatly incorrect, US production of these sorts of bombs is more along the lines of 6-8 per month, and they only have 20 of a very specific model.]
  • Iran's airforce was basically a no-show during this conflict. It's not clear what happened with that; some are suggesting they were moved to the far east to be out of harm's way, and perhaps if the conflict intensified and became extended then they would step in. It's probably also not a bad idea to conserve as many planes as possible, especially as some of their pilots train on the Russian jets they received.
  • The Israeli modus operandi against other regional actors was applied to Iran and met similar failure - they attempted a military victory and lost, and lost quite badly at that. Now, again, this isn't to say that Israel is therefore owned and mad, because where Israel seems to actually do quite well is in winning the peace - they are great at infiltrating and undermining nations that have been weakened by war even if technically victorious. We saw this happen in Lebanon and Syria, for instance.
  • Simplicius says that it's not clear when the conflict will erupt again - maybe in hours, maybe in days, maybe even months or years. But Iran has created a degree of deterrence. Importantly, it has dealt a heavy blow to Israel's IMEC plan to create a new transport corridor to the Mediterranean that bypasses unfriendly states, with Haifa's port damaged and clearly much more vulnerable than the alternatives (such as the existing Suez Canal route, and China's BRI), which is important on a geopolitical level. China just can't stop winning, folks. They're getting tired of winning.
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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago

Daddy Trump - we have ~~created~~ discovered the intel you wanted!

CNN

CIA obtained "credible evidence" indicating Iran's nuclear program was "severely damaged," director says

CIA Director John Ratcliffe on Wednesday issued a statement saying that the agency had obtained “a body of credible evidence (that) indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes.” “This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years,” Ratcliffe said.

The statement comes a day after CNN and other outlets reporting a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency analysis produced roughly 24 hours after the strikes that found that the US bombing likely only set Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon back by a matter of months. The White House has pushed back on that assessment, calling it “wrong.” President Donald Trump has said that the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s ability to produce a weapon.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also posted on X on Wednesday that “new intelligence” supported the notion that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “destroyed” in the strikes. “New intelligence confirms what @POTUS has stated numerous times: Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed,” Gabbard posted on X on Wednesday without providing evidence. “If the Iranians chose to rebuild, they would have to rebuild all three facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan) entirely, which would likely take years to do.”

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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Like Lazarus I return from the dead, well less dramatic than that I've been gone for like 4 months? Mostly been touching grass maxing and doing stuff that matters.

Which is something I really recommend for people here, just like the theory of humors your leftists juices are going to be in inbalanced if all you do is posting and doomscrolling. If those juices are left imbalanced for long enough it'll pickle your brain which is not good folks. Not good at all.

With rambling and ranting done it's time to give my quick thoughts on things which you aren't allowed to answer to because it'd make this whole post even longer so in the whole Iran-Israel/US war Iran obviously won and all the people saying 'ehrm actually' sound like yanks who are trying to tell me that they didn't lose Afghanistan, Yemen or Vietnam.

Now onto what people care about capital before I left my big thing was basically saying that was looking away from the US and more towards the EU and I'm somewhat right. Capital is not running away from the US obviously but it has gradually shifted and us exceptionalism is dead at least for as long as Trump is president so where has it gone to? Well it has stayed in europe and slightly gone into Germany and one continent I haven't considered South America, one just has to see how much the IMF is bending over backwards for Argentina by not calling in its debt to make sure the country doesn't collapse under the weight of its presidents idiotic decisions. This seems to be part of a broader tactic to 'promote growth and deregulation' If capital starts to feel more welcome in these economies at a time when the US appears to be actively trying to discourage foreign capital then this stream is going to grow. Additionally Latin America has the advantage of still being part of what the US views as its sphere of influence.

An index fund of Mexican stocks is currently up 14.4%, while an index fund of Brazilian stocks is up 14.22% year to date. Compared to the Nasdaq which is up 3%.

Now the EU as a whole had less of a 'stock glow up' as Latin america with an Index only up 7.5% but and this is kinda what I was talking about but while the German economy is in the dumpster the DAX is up 18.5% year to date. Which leads me to talk about GERMANY.

That's right you didn't think I'd skip the worst country on the continent and runner up for worst country in the world.

Now I've ranted about Germany for a while now but since I've stopped talking about those things I bet you thought things didn't get worse. Wrong.

So generally germany is in fullblown Islamophobia, talking US after 9/11 levels of Islamophobia where seemingly everything that's wrong with germany is the fault of the insidious musleman.

This is paired with german journalists during the whole Iran islam war going pretty mask off now apart from Julian Reichelt, who is an outright nazi and used to be the editor for the basically the german 'The Sun', the rest are all 'respectable' and 'centrists'. Which more or less just confirms what I've been saying for years where the current center lies in germany.

But this is just ambient nazi shit I come to expect from the good ole germans no what is more concerning is Germany putting a lot more money into it's army.

The federal government intends to achieve the NATO target of 5 percent of GDP for military and other war-related spending by 2029, the army budget will increase from €52 billion in 2024 to €153 billion in 2029. That is just under 27 percent of the total budget, up from 11 percent previously. Now if we look at how this first raise was 'afforded' it was done by slashing healthcare in 2022 healthcare spending was 64.5bn in 2023 it was 24.5bn and in 2024 16.2bn. Education and Living has also have had cuts of their budget of up to 5%.

Now that alone is bad enough but there's more as always fhe federal government is cutting the funding for naval rescues in the mediterrean sea, basically the country that loudly yelled at the inhumanity of people drowning at sea during the start of the syrian civil war now is more than ok with people drowning again.

But wait there's more, obviously there's a whole bunch of 'renewed militarism'. And here's where I get going, so germanys most beloved politician, the minister of war, has time and time again brought up the topic of mandatory service, because not enough people want to die for germanys imperial ambitions for some reason. Now mandatory military service currently is only suspended so he could just declare it active again with no recourse and my guess is that over the next few years they'll bring this topic up over and over again to soften the blow when they pull the trigger. Basically if the austerity doesn't drive enough people into the army for employment they can just legally do it and the germans are the most legal minded people so doubt on any instability from this. Obviously of course austerity will also drive up fascism but I think at this point that's a given.

With this rising militarism and fascism massive spending (If germany continues to cut spending on social programs and goes for the NATO 5% 40% of its budget would be to pay for the army, I think that's unlikely but hey maybe I'm not savy about the depravity of the germans.), what we are going to see is a massively imperialist Germany that would more than likely seek to get a 'return on their investment'. The most likely targets would be the EU if they don't play ball and Africa to regain their place in the sun probably doing some evil shit with Frances coordination.

Thankfully it's not like the German left fully support this endeavour, wait I'm getting new information that the war minister is from the SPD and that the finance minister is also from the SPD well.... that's just....wait they started this whole thing under a SPD-Greens-Neoliberal government? Well you better hope that Linke will be able to do anything but it's doubtful.

TL;DR Germany is going to do fascism through huge austerity and imperialism in 2029 probably by invading Libya for the sake of 'stability'.

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[-] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, addressed the nation:

– I offer my congratulations to the great nation of Iran; first, congratulations on the victory over the fake Zionist regime, and secondly, the victory over the American regime.

– The Americans entered the war directly because Israel would have completely lost and become hopeless otherwise.

– The U.S. gained nothing from this intervention, Trump greatly exaggerated what happened, and our nuclear sites remain unaffected.

– The enemies don't seek an end to Iran's missile or nuclear program, they seek an unconditional surrender, which our powerful nation will never accept.

– The U.S. needed to put on a show, and that's what they did. But Iran remains steadfast, and our progress continues.

  • Telegram
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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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