this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2025
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Image is of Colombian President Gustavo Petro giving a speech at the UN in 2022.


Trump has arrived in office with the force of an avalanche; ~~ending~~ slowing a genocide on the one hand, while simultaneously promising a total nightmare for minorities and the poor throughout and outside the United States on the other hand. [edited for clarity; I do not actually think Trump has ended the Palestinian genocide obviously, I was making a joke - but the ceasefire is a genuine improvement in conditions for millions of people right now who are on the edge of death, so it cannot be dismissed]

It's still far too early to truly compare and contrast his imperial strategy with Biden's, but initial signs show that there does appear to be somewhat of a reorientation. Biden was famous for being two-faced; ostensibly offering aid and stability, while also blowing up your pipeline to ensure you did not actually have an alternative to his idea. Trump, meanwhile, seems only really capable of aggression, threatening several "allied" nations with what may as well be sanctions because of the economic harm they'd do. I suspect we'll be debating for a long time how much of this can be attributed to the specific characteristics of Trump, or whether he merely embodies the zeitgeist of imperial decline - a wounded empire lashing out with extreme violence to try and convince everybody, including themselves, that they can still be the world imperialist hegemon.

I'll admit it: I did not believe that Trump would actually try and go ahead with putting tariffs on basically anybody who annoys him. And while the threat could still be empty in regards to countries like China and Canada, Colombia is the first indication of the potential of his strategy. Despite some fiery words from President Petro, after Trump's administration revealed the punishment if Colombia did not agree, it appears that Colombia will in fact be accepting deported migrants after all. It's funny how that works.


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 83 points 1 day ago (2 children)

The University of Michigan has suspended a pro-Palestinian group for 2 years

Boycott University of Michigan. They have a Huge college football presense. Blue and Gold.

Let it be known the University of Michgan is a ZIONAZI fascist organization that atands with genocide, aparthied, racism and bigotry. They used false anti semitism to shield their own fascist involvement and behavior.

Do not enroll. Do not watch their games. Do not buy their merch or themed merch.

Idk how to get a recall going but perhaps we can recall the board members and regents who are highly paid gifting zionazis. They are a public institution. They should be held accountable.

[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Their football team is under investigation for the worst cheating scandal in collegiate sports in the last 50 years. A rotten university to the core.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 22 hours ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I took a tour there years ago to maybe attend. I've known people who have attended the university. They intentionally create a hyper cut throat competitive atmosphere amongst the students. No one will help you.

Hard to tell if it's a self selecting issue for people who would want to be in that environment, or the sick Midwestern inferiority complex as they try to live up to their nickname of "Harvard of the midwest".

Fuck that place. Only cool thing to come out of the town was The Stooges.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 21 hours ago* (last edited 21 hours ago)

That really wasn't my takeaway from the engineering campus 20 years ago, but who knows what's changed.

Something like that did apply to all the clubs and their faculty leadership, though. Even when they had "enrollment" meetings the only way to really join anything was to meet the right person at a party.

EDIT: I forgot, but the business school was famous for that from its inception. Fuck those guys.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 18 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 54 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Attoney who helped exonerate Michigan prisoners killed with his wife.

They were visiting their daughter and was shot by thier son in law. Motive not yet known.

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[–] [email protected] 52 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

What do they want the US to do, send Juan Guaido in?

[–] [email protected] 16 points 21 hours ago

I guess the manufactured consent for Trump's invasion is already rolling in.

[–] [email protected] 49 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (3 children)

There's a group of republicans that have been trying to get the US to invade mexico with "fighting the drug gangs" as the excuse for doing it. They've been at it for a couple years now.

Trump entertained this idea, saying there's a need for a "soft invasion" of mexico. Could happen.

The US military will get its shit rocked by the gangs there though if it ever does fight them, I suspect it won't. These gangs are as heavily equipped as US special forces and well trained.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 day ago (2 children)

These gangs are as heavily equipped as US special forces and well trained.

Really makes you think, doesn't it? soviet-hmm

[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 day ago

Remember operation "fast and furious"? It's not just a Vin Diesel franchise!

[–] [email protected] 10 points 21 hours ago

Trump entertained this idea, saying there's a need for a "soft invasion" of mexico. Could happen.

He designated cartels as terrorist groups, that's a little more than entertaining the idea.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Are they actually asking for US help? Or is that just editorializing?

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 day ago

In the article they quoted 1 protestor (by name which doesn't seem safe) saying she wants help from "the us or any international bodies"?

[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 day ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 day ago

Sort of. In the north there's a lot of middle-class Mexican people who worship the US, and think the cartels need to be destroyed militarily (because it's worked so well so far). I wouldn't put it past Sinaloan Malinchista PANistas to organically ask the US to invade them.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 22 hours ago

I can believe it’s organic. Usually it’s the same groups who loathe migrants that push for the US to invade and fight the cartels.

[–] [email protected] 59 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Is there a version of our immediate future where these tariffs are actually imposed tomorrow (today now I guess) and prices of the majority of goods do not really increase all that much for most Americans? And if that happens, Trump’s political mandate actually grows and he gets more belligerent?

I just see this idea of a “25% tariff resulting in a 25% price hike” as one of those things that makes sense economically when you put it on paper, that domestic companies importing products who will be paying these tariffs at customs will increase the cost they sell them for to recuperate the tariff, resulting in that cost being passed to the consumer. But I just cannot shake that it also feels like one of those nothing-ever-happens hype situations where we are all looking at a US car racing towards a wall, predicting the US car will crash, and by the grace of the US-backed Anti-God, the car goes straight through the wall unscathed

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Nobody here has the full set of data required to truly answer this question. The adage that economists are wrong 95% of the time is true because everyone who tries to predict the future is essentially making bets. Regardless of how or why.

Will these high import taxes on the american economy strengthen the dollar and drive up imports anyways? Will this (relative) closing of the american economy serve as a perfect excuse for inertial inflation / monopoly profits to rise regardless of the calculus involved? Will people and companies find novel ways around the import taxes? Will the import taxes mostly just eat into the profits of US importers? Will foreign export economies make up the shock by relying on new, growing markets around the world? Will the import taxes be mostly just a means of picking winners and losers in the US economy, so that imports still happen its just that profits are funneled to a narrower sector of the oligarchy? Will tariffs be used to just browbeat countries into submission, to be unceremoniously dropped as soon as certain oligarchs get whatever they want from, say, México?

I don't know. I don't think anybody really knows.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago

If Trump were smart he'd have already worked out a deal with domestic companies to hold off on the price hike.

[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 day ago

I also am afraid of some til-now-unexpected result of this. Like the countries exporting to the US drop the prices to maintain the market because they really do need the dollar. Like a race to the bottom, where the country whose exporters dont do it lose out. There's a chance of that and that Trump managed to do this before another currency managed to make itself attractive enough... I'm yet unsure

[–] [email protected] 66 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Interesting counter tarriff tactic I have been thinking about: threaten to ban X from Canada, Mexico, etc.

[–] [email protected] 56 points 1 day ago (1 children)

100% tariffs on Teslas, US social media must sell their operations to continue operating

[–] [email protected] 11 points 22 hours ago

100% tariffs on tesla 0% tariffs on BYD

[–] [email protected] 87 points 1 day ago (4 children)
[–] [email protected] 13 points 22 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 52 points 1 day ago

Did he think Western NGOs actually delivered aid?

I mean sure some of them do but ... yea

[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 day ago
[–] [email protected] 69 points 1 day ago (3 children)

https://xcancel.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1885473025476145386#m

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/31/trump-california-water-00201909

Local officials had to talk the Army Corps of Engineers down after it abruptly alerted them Thursday afternoon it was about to increase flows from two reservoirs to maximum capacity — a move the agency said was in response to Trump directing the federal government to “maximize” water supplies. Before the Corps ratcheted down its plan, local authorities scrambled to move equipment and warn farms about possible flooding, said Victor Hernandez, who oversees water management on one of the rivers, the Kaweah in Tulare County. He said the Corps gave him one hour notice on Thursday. “I’ve been here 25 years, and I’ve never been given notice that quick,” Hernandez said. “That was alarming and scary.”

...It also reduces the amount of irrigation water available to farmers during the driest months of the year. The snowpack in the Southern Sierra Nevada that California depends on for water supplies in the summer has dipped to 47 percent of average for this time of year after a dry January, according to state estimates released Friday. “We need to keep every bit that we have, because this potentially is irrigation water that we have up there,” Hernandez said.

turns out that when trump said that he had the military release the water in california he just meant he made the army corps open up the dams???

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