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submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] [email protected] 79 points 1 month ago
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[-] [email protected] 79 points 1 month ago

Some Westoid Volunteer in the Ukrainian has been posting selfies of their hidden weapon manufacturing plants and Russians have been geolocating and bombing them. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1lksr0v/ru_pov_a_former_ukrainian_volunteer_posted_a/

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[-] [email protected] 78 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Coining a new term

Ceasefirezoned

Once you get put in the ceasefirezone with America or Israel, you are never gonna get a direct war. You just get jerked around forever as they breach the ceasefire when they please and reinstate it when convenient for them.

If you have any western simps in your government, they will ceasefirezone you on purpose

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[-] [email protected] 78 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

For anybody wondering if Zohran is hiding his power levels

Yes. I have so much to say about him and this campaign and I’m thinking I’ll do that write up this weekend or early next week

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[-] [email protected] 78 points 1 month ago

At this rate I'm convinced that my attention is the one thing holding the fabric of reality together, because shit always happens when I'm not Monitoring the Situation. As long as I'm here collapsing the wave function, World War III will continue to be averted.

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[-] [email protected] 77 points 1 month ago

Democratic congresswoman @RepLauraGillen says of Mamdani: "His comments about intifada, calls for violence against Jewish people, it's really inappropriate for someone like that to lead the city of New York."

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[-] [email protected] 77 points 1 month ago

Seeing reports that Iran launched the missiles before the ceasefire came into effect and they landed after. Buzzer beater missile attack.

If Israel responds, they break the ceasefire, and if they don't, they look weak. Very cheeky move by Iran, and it seems to indicate they feel they've won.

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[-] [email protected] 76 points 1 month ago

Zohran Mamdani brought the heat on Tuesday, and torched Andrew Cuomo's bid to come back from disgrace. He's likely to become the next mayor of New York City thanks to fervent support from progressive hotbeds in Brooklyn and Queens blazing through the city's geographic center.

NYC's red corridor

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[-] [email protected] 76 points 1 month ago

MAGA already calling on Trump to deport the People's Mayor...

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[-] [email protected] 75 points 1 month ago

We all have to be mentally and physically ready for the upcoming era of fascism. Like for real, get fucking ready.

It doesn't really matter if Iran "wins" or not, it's coming to you regardless.

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[-] [email protected] 75 points 1 month ago

Mike Lee dropped the massive federal land sell off from the bill because he “was unable to secure clear, enforceable safeguards to guarantee that these lands would be sold only to American families—not to China, not to BlackRock, and not to any foreign interests”.

At least that major ecological disaster has been avoided.

For now.

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[-] [email protected] 75 points 1 month ago

So Israel will be resupplied with intercept missiles, return all focus to the genocide, and all of this will have been for nothing. Wonderful.

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[-] [email protected] 75 points 1 month ago
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[-] [email protected] 74 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Dayen;

Senate Dems are going to force a full reading of the Big Beautiful Bill, all 940 pages, on the Senate floor, delaying things by about 15 hours. Apparently advocates had to push @SenSchumer to get this done.

Huge move by the Dems, delaying things by one day! This probably helps the GOP because a lot of GOP Senators are still against it, looks like mostly because of the SALT tax change? The new bill cuts almost $1 trillion from Medicaid, by the way.

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[-] [email protected] 74 points 1 month ago
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[-] [email protected] 74 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

News is floating around that the snake Rafael Grossi said Iran is hiding nuclear material in Isfahan.

The truth is somewhat more bizarre and actually concerning. In an interview with "Fox News" a few days ago, the anchor says that he claimed Iran was hiding 900lbs of enriched uranium at "ancient site near Isfahan." Grossi does not deny saying it (I can't find evidence he ever did say it.) He replies that the IAEA doesnt know and can't be sure unless Iran allows IAEA observers into Iran.

Screenshot from the linked article.

It is noteworthy that this specific nazi news outlet used to employ the current US Secretary of Genocide Pete Hegseth who used to talk about "bombing Iranian cultural sites" on his show.

Anyways. Grossi gets plausible deniability while the US gets to threaten Iran that they will bomb the 800 year old Mosque outside Isfahan if the Islamic Republic doesnt allow IAEA spies into the country.

The idea of hiding uranium in a mosque is so laughably absurd but I guess 25 years of war on terror programming has prepared people to accept it.

Thankfully the Iranian government did officially ban cooperation with ~~Mossad~~ IAEA earlier this week.

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[-] [email protected] 74 points 1 month ago

All the stupid libs at r/europe are shocked by the NATO Secretary General kissing Trump's feet.

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[-] [email protected] 74 points 1 month ago

The 5% GDP military spending thing is really insane, probably just trump doing his classic hard-sell tactic again, because at that point you're really just spending money for spending money's sake.

Just note that when Portugal was fighting a 3 front colonial war its military spending peaked at 4.5% in 1968

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[-] [email protected] 74 points 1 month ago

trump-drenched : "Both Iran and Israel violated the ceasefire. I didn't like that Israel attacked aggressively after the ceasefire was declared."

[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rdI61hudsRQ Sex pestiny telling idf soldiers not to record their war crimes and have fun. Have fucking fun. These fucking youtubers are devoid of anything resembling humanity. always said he was a psychopath that neolibs sucked off.

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[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago

Major Palestinian Bedouin village faces expulsion by Israeli army and settlers Hexbear Post palestine-heart

Ras Ain al-Ouja is one of the largest Palestinian Bedouin villages in the occupied West Bank. Nestled amid a ridge of high silt hills just north of Jericho city, the village is facing intensified Israeli government-funded settler efforts to expel its residents.

‘They treat us like shit’: Northern Ontario First Nations prepare blockades to fight laws fast-tracking resource extraction Hexbear Post kkkanada

Members of Neskantaga and Attiwapiskat First Nations have begun clearing brush at the point where proposed highways would cross the Attawapiskat River, headed north toward the mineral deposit that’s suspected to hold more than $60-billion worth of critical minerals.

[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago

You know what boils my blood, kamala can still show her face and people let her. People started shitting on Hillary as soon as she lost. It makes sense, she is the most responsible for 2016 defeat and she should fuck off. Punch up. But it feels like things have regressed. Kamala got even worse defeat and all the people who should have been sending death threats to her are praising her. People are blaming everyone except those in power. Libs love to cry about democracy and normalcy but this is not normal democracy. This is power worshipping. This is not about her reactionary beliefs. I would be okay if she was hated after losing with real leftist policies too.

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[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago

This was undeniably a "kayfabe" response by Iran. A strike against an empty American base, in a country that has the best relations with Iran in the Gulf region. Let's see if the Americans can accept that everyone can come out looking strong or if they do something dumb af again.

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[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

This whole thing goes to show how North Korea is the only non great power sovereign state and only communist states can be trusted to manuever these situations against imperialism.

The DPRK didnt want to be a chinese satelite state or allow significant Chinese influence, had no delusions regarding the west and wanted to chart its own geopolitical course secure from imperialism. So they built the fucking bomb. Even when China in peak post deng pre xi, WTO and West good mode was pissing and crying for them not to , even when they along with Putin's dumbass joined in the sanctions. Even under the most vicious pressure from the country that had already genocided them. With literally no allies in the entire world. They put their heads down, suffered and persevered but they did it. They didnt have 5% of their population being SK agents with ATGMs hidden in their asses to sabotage them or a political sphere and elite dreaming about sending their kids to harvard and having swiss bank accounts. You guessed it, probably because they were communists.

They would have even done it even if the US carpet bombed them again and hundreds of thosuands were dying and did so without any guarantee that china would actualy help them in that situation despite having a paper somewhere saying they would. They would have turned Seoul into a parking lot with artillery until the last 30.000 people in Pyongyang bunkers and tunnels had a nuke button

And now they are reaping the benefits. Yes most of the world still shuning them and yes they under more pressure and attack than any country other than cuba can imagine. But the geopolitical events and changes created a situation where they can exercise their sovereigty and militarism to upgrade their technologies and energy access from co-benificial ties with russia and China also gives less of a shit to follow a bunch of sanctions they have been following ,and also doesnt want to be left behind in the russia-dprk bromance. And the future looks like more of that.

If they had a fraction of the brainworms iran had they would either be a smoking crater or a chinese dengifying vassal with its teeth taken out which doesnt sound that bad if you dont care about sovereignty between different socialist experiments and nations but whatever

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[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Haaretz article on the horrifying killings of unarmed civilians at the joint Israeli-American "aid distribution" locations in Gaza. Content warning for descriptions of brutal violence

https://archive.ph/ilyEU

This is what defenders of Israel are defending

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[-] [email protected] 73 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Good morning to the sleepy comrades, good afternoon to the woke comrades, and good night to the terminally doomscrolling comrades.

Remember this week that while Iranians harden their hearts, we can help soften their enemies. Get outside and touch grass when you need to, and be prepared for a potential week of decades to come.

As for updates:

https://aje.io/j5j5ww?update=3794651

20 minutes ago: Israel confirms bombing of access roads to Fordow, likely to delay attempts to assess the damage or attempt repairs.

1 hour ago: Dashcam footage (check above link) shows moment that Ashdod is hit by Iranian forces during morning attack wave.

1 hour ago: Israel bombed a prison near Tehran (Evin), IRGC and Basij (militia) bases. Iran denies reports of unrest at the prison as "baseless". Israel continues to pivot towards fomenting unrest against the Iranian government. They also struck the "Israel doomsday clock".

In 2017, a digital clock was installed in Palestine Square, Tehran for Quds Day, reportedly counting down to the destruction of Israel. It was programmed to count down 25 years from a 2015 statement made by Khamenei, in which he predicted that Israel would cease to exist within a quarter century.

It's literally just a digital billboard with a countdown that supposedly goes out or gets hacked by Israel sometimes. Just one of those moments you're reminded of the paper-thin skin of Israeli militarism.

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[-] [email protected] 72 points 1 month ago

NYT

Most communications between world leaders are considered private — unless President Trump sees some advantage to making it public. Which is what apparently just happened: Mr. Trump posted, on Truth Social, what he portrayed as a signal message from Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, praising him for striking the Iranian nuclear sites.

“Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran,’’ the message read. Rutte called it “truly extraordinary and something no one else dared to do.” NATO confirmed that the message was genuine.

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[-] [email protected] 72 points 1 month ago

Idk why Colbert mentioned the Clyburn endorsement for Cuomo as if it would have helped him the same way it helped Hillary and Biden. It only worked then because of his influence in South Carolina, which isn’t going to matter at all in an election taking place in NYC.

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[-] [email protected] 72 points 1 month ago

Discussing Trump's comments on Israel and Iran, Rutte says 'daddy has to sometimes use strong language'. Going back to that Rutte-Trump briefing earlier, there’s also another bit that is attracting some attention.

Talking about Trump’s reaction to Iran and Israel yesterday – when he said of Iran and Israel that “we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing” – the US president explained that:

They’ve had a big fight, like two kids in a schoolyard. You know, they fight like hell. You can’t stop them. Let them fight for about two, three minutes. Then it’s easier to stop them.

In response, Nato secretary general Mark Rutte appeared to say: “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language to get it stopped.”

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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago

Lol Indian fascist subs are big mad on Zohran's victory.

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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Repeating what I said last week. The US does not do deals, it uses them for misdirection while it lines up what it's really planning. Israel uses the same playbook.

This ceasefire is the same. It's not a sincere ceasefire, it is a misdirection while another plan is set in place.

The Nimitz did not travel to the middle east to go unused after the performance bombing was carried out by different assets.

Something else is being planned. This is just creating time for them to plan it.

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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago

Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, officially announces that Iran is seeking to pass a bill suspending all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago

Trump really hates dogs

BREAKING: Trump called for CNN to “throw out” Natasha Bertrand “like a dog” and demanded her firing for reporting on intelligence that Iran’s nuclear sites weren’t completely wiped out.

He accused her of pushing “fake news” and trying to damage the reputation of U.S. pilots.

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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago
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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago

Today, hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Tehran to pay their respects to the martyrs of the war imposed by the US-israel against Iran.

These are a people who will never be defeated.

[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago

Yemen strikes Israeli target in Beersheba with ballistic missile

Yousef Mawry reports from Sana'a. @PressTV telegram

[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago
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[-] [email protected] 71 points 1 month ago

Morning Joe: "Globalize the infantada"

[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

On totally unsurprising news, DesTINY is in "Israel" giving pep talks and asking that if IOF soldiers want to take pictures of themselves in women's clothing, they shouldn't upload it to the internet.

https://xcancel.com/red_leftist/status/1936975959942480133#m

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[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 month ago

Some interesting protest pictures coming out of Kenya today. Protests a year after the Kenyan youth stormed Parliament. Interesting to see them wearing shirts calling themselves Gen-Z. I sometimes forget that the American labels for age groups end up getting used by a number of other countries.

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[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Two unexploded Israeli missiles that was fired at Evin prison were defused and recovered. - Mehr New Agency

Yesterday also a Israeli Hermes drone was shot down with its components damaged but fairly recognizable and some undamaged. It's payload was also recovered, Spike missiles, if I recall correctly. It used Iridium LEO for communication. Anyway, Iranian engineers are going to have field day reverse-engineering those components.

As folks here said correctly, there were no manned aircraft shoot down at all, or any pilot captured because not a single image or video came out.

Regarding ceasefire, I believe it's not going to last long because it would be really bad for Israel. Iran now knows a lot about its weaknesses and almost all people are against Israel and US now. If the Iran's rulers act smartly they can cement this national unity and garner massive nation-wide support. However, presently Iran still can't do what Yemenis can do like intervening to help the Resistance members due to lack of support among general public for the leadership itself.

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[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 month ago

U.S. Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff: 'Even if Iran has already enriched uranium to 90% (weapons-grade), they cannot weaponize it because we destroyed the conversion facility at Esfahan — needed to 'convert' the material before enrichmemt and to 'metalicize' it after enrichment'

Witkoff clearly does not understand the nuclear weaponization process. Yes, the Esfahan site was being used to turn yellowcake into UF6 for enrichment. This 'first step' can now no longer be done, but it doesn't really matter, considering Iran already has ~400kg of 60% enriched uranium.

As for the last step in the weaponization process, which is turning the uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas into uranium metal for use in a workable warhead, this process can quite easily be done in small covert laboratories and research sites, a dedicated facility is not needed, and Iran conducted many such tests in the early 2000's.

So, in short: As long as the centrifuges are intact (which seems to be the case), Iran can enrich its existing stockpile to 90% and create a warhead within months, provided that the blueprints of a weapon already exist.

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[-] [email protected] 70 points 1 month ago

Putin and Xi are not attending the BRICS summit in Brazil this year. IBS? kelly

Putin is ostensibly not going because of his ICC arrest warrant. Xi is missing it for the first time ever.

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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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