538
Enthusiasm wins elections, because people actually take the time to go VOTE. It’s amazing how few people actually do!
Also voting is the one thing those bastard pig fascist bootlicking simp conservative chud SCUM don't want us all to do. You can tell because of how much outrageous effort they dump into making voting more difficult. So: fuck 'em. They can eat shit.
It's not even that I like the democrat party at all.
I just want the republicans to lose. Fuck them in hell for eternity.
Bonus; If the GOP gets curbstomped into oblivion where it belongs (with the Federalist party) then the democrats won't be able to say "well at least we're not republicans!" anymore.
Imagine uncle sam standing before the behaded corpse of an fat frumpy anthropomorphic elephant, still holding a big bloody machete and smiling at an anthropomorphic donkey.
"Oh, you're not like him? Why, Yes, You'd better 'be like him' as little as possible if you don't want to end up like he did too!"
The democrats only get away with their fuckery because they always hide behind their favorite token excuse.
They still delusionally think the republicans are their pet controlled opposition.
That pet is not controlled. It is entirely OUT of control, a danger to everyone, both completely feral and RABID.
It's time for America to take that violent, deranged, savage animal out to Kristi Noem's gravel pit and end its life right before its democrat "owner"s' eyes. If we make an example of the republicans, the cowardly shits in the centrist party will either see the light or flee.
I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter!
Don’t care - vote. 🗳️
It is possibly to do both
Vote! Complacency loses every time.
I'm so happy this message is making it's way to the top
It needs to not be close. Biden was polling way ahead in 2020 but he only won effectively by like 85k votes. Yes, he got 7 million more votes total but in the closest states that could have seen him lose, only about 85k people was the difference between Biden winning the presidency vs Trump winning.
2020 was decided by even less than that! Closer to 43,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
It needs to become a nation-wide single-issue to revamp our campaign finance and election system.
That means abolishing the Electoral College and FPTP, addressing Gerrymandering, implementing ranked choice voting, and publicly-funded elections. This is the only way we fix our democracy at the root of the problem.
A path only open by Republicans losing this election, which is a critical point that can't be missed.
Crazy idea: How about the person who gets the most votes wins?
yOu MeAn MoB rUlEs?!?1?
First past the post isn't a good system, no.
Vote like your and your loved ones' lives depends on it, because they probably do.
Let's make sure the ballot box reflects that. Vote, get active, and get involved. Even if you don't live in a swing state, the down ballot races matter far more than you think
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
That's within the margin of error. That doesn't really count as a lead.
No, but Trump's leads were also within the margin of error, so it's encouraging to see a swing, even if it might just be noise.
She’s only been campaigning for a few weeks. The DNC hasn’t even happened yet. I would call this pretty phenomenal.
Jfc people went ape shit when 1-2% was called within the margin of error a few days ago and now folks complain when it isn’t called out at 4% lmao
Most people have a really, really awful understanding of how statistics work.
Preach.
Yes it’s all margin of error. But what I’m seeing personally is Biden was consistently 2-4% down (conservatively) in every state that mattered (which was within the margin of error) and Harris is up 2-4% in every state that matters now (which is also within the margin of error).
I’d rather be the Harris campaign right now than the (now defunct) Biden or (panicking) Trump campaigns. Qualify it all you want folks 🤷♂️
No I’m not complacent. I’m excited to vote.
We don't know the sample size; so we don't know the margin of error.
I mean, click a couple links and it's right there
MI: 619 PA: 693 WI: 661 All of registered voters
Using the amount of total registered voters in each respective state and a 95% CI, we get the following margins of error MI: ±3.939% PA: ±3.723% WI: ±3.811%
Depending on the exact lead (NYT only shows round percents, not specific numbers for each response), all of those are potentially within the top end of that margin of error.
Am I trying to claim that a swing from being down by ~4% to being up by ~4% means nothing and is indicative of nothing? Of course not. But man, most people really do not at all understand how statistics work, and I really wish people would stop talking out of their ass about it.
So which links did you click? The one that goes to NYT is paywalled.
NYT polls aren't pay walled
It was paywalled for me 🤷♂️
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(3 replies)
If I remember this correctly, the square of the error for the sum of (or difference between) two independent measurements is the sum of the squares of the individual errors. Gauss something.
That would make the error for the 8 point swing be sqrt(2×3.8²) or about 5.4. So at least the swing is significant in each state.
Also, the error for the average of 3 variables is sqrt(e1²+e2²+e3²)/3 or 2.2 so the average lead in the 3 states is significant.
But we can't make a significant claim about the lead in each state.
It’s easy. When Kamala is down we say that polls don’t matter as much they used to, but when she’s up polls are obviously right. The margin of error is just a thing we use after the fact to justify whether the polls are useless (Kamala losing) or absolutely correct (Kamala winning)
I love how any time someone wants to argue about stats they act like this information can’t possibly be obtained and talk as if the sample size must be like 7 people.
Are they the same people?
You are aware that different people can think different things, right?
Wow you aren’t all the same people!? You aren’t all one person!? Man yeah that is literally the only way my comment could be interpreted. There are clearly no largely shared opinions here ever so I’m clearly living in a fantasy and just need to remember everyone is completely unique and no one agrees. Thanks for your concern you can move on now.
Sure, be a dick about it. Why not.
Look I’ll back off. You’re right, I’m going off for no reason. I don’t need to be another person pissed off pissing off other people. I’m sorry. Taking out some mild frustrations on you isn’t cool.
This is a good comment and we should all try to think like this.
Better to not behave how I did in the first place lol but I’m glad it had an impact regardless
You’re right I should behave more like your previous comment and ask sarcastic, disingenuous qiestions. That’s a way better way to communicate.
Should I be like you? Is that preferred?
By all means, keep going. Get the nasty out.
Not sure if you saw my other comment but tldr sorry
No worries. I know the feeling.
Which people? I don't recall seeing any comments like that on Lemmy, at least.
You want me to dig up posts from when the first polls came out after Harris was nominated?
Maybe not, but it's encouraging! Harris/Walz are stoking enthusiasm because they want to actually improve people's lives, not just repeat the same tired culture-war bullshit...
You don't know the margin of error unless you know the sample size. I didn't see the sample size mentioned in the article.
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this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2024
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