• The Harris campaign is showing new strength in must-win states ahead of the party's convention.
  • In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.
  • It's a reflection of the continued reset of the 2024 race after Biden's exit.
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[–] 12 points 2 years ago (25 children)

Jfc people went ape shit when 1-2% was called within the margin of error a few days ago and now folks complain when it isn’t called out at 4% lmao

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  • [–] 13 points 2 years ago (12 children)

    Most people have a really, really awful understanding of how statistics work.

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  • [–] 25 points 2 years ago* (11 children)

    Preach.

    Yes it’s all margin of error. But what I’m seeing personally is Biden was consistently 2-4% down (conservatively) in every state that mattered (which was within the margin of error) and Harris is up 2-4% in every state that matters now (which is also within the margin of error).

    I’d rather be the Harris campaign right now than the (now defunct) Biden or (panicking) Trump campaigns. Qualify it all you want folks 🤷‍♂️

    No I’m not complacent. I’m excited to vote.

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  • [+] -2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (10 children)
  • [–] 13 points 2 years ago* (8 children)

    I mean, click a couple links and it's right there

    MI: 619 PA: 693 WI: 661 All of registered voters

    Using the amount of total registered voters in each respective state and a 95% CI, we get the following margins of error MI: ±3.939% PA: ±3.723% WI: ±3.811%

    Depending on the exact lead (NYT only shows round percents, not specific numbers for each response), all of those are potentially within the top end of that margin of error.

    Am I trying to claim that a swing from being down by ~4% to being up by ~4% means nothing and is indicative of nothing? Of course not. But man, most people really do not at all understand how statistics work, and I really wish people would stop talking out of their ass about it.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago

    It’s easy. When Kamala is down we say that polls don’t matter as much they used to, but when she’s up polls are obviously right. The margin of error is just a thing we use after the fact to justify whether the polls are useless (Kamala losing) or absolutely correct (Kamala winning)

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago*

    If I remember this correctly, the square of the error for the sum of (or difference between) two independent measurements is the sum of the squares of the individual errors. Gauss something.

    That would make the error for the 8 point swing be sqrt(2×3.8²) or about 5.4. So at least the swing is significant in each state.

    Also, the error for the average of 3 variables is sqrt(e1²+e2²+e3²)/3 or 2.2 so the average lead in the 3 states is significant.

    But we can't make a significant claim about the lead in each state.

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  • [+] 1 point 2 years ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)
  • [–] -3 points 2 years ago* (2 children)

    “I don’t see it” =/= “the information doesn’t exist and you don’t know so I’m right”

    Next time try this asking.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 years ago (9 children)

    Are they the same people?

    You are aware that different people can think different things, right?

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (8 children)

    Wow you aren’t all the same people!? You aren’t all one person!? Man yeah that is literally the only way my comment could be interpreted. There are clearly no largely shared opinions here ever so I’m clearly living in a fantasy and just need to remember everyone is completely unique and no one agrees. Thanks for your concern you can move on now.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 years ago (7 children)

    Sure, be a dick about it. Why not.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    Look I’ll back off. You’re right, I’m going off for no reason. I don’t need to be another person pissed off pissing off other people. I’m sorry. Taking out some mild frustrations on you isn’t cool.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago* (3 children)

    You’re right I should behave more like your previous comment and ask sarcastic, disingenuous qiestions. That’s a way better way to communicate.

    Should I be like you? Is that preferred?

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