this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2025
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The imperial core is continuing the process of self-cannibalization as the interimperial wars between Europe and the US over resource and territorial control continue. Greenland, populated with less than a hundred thousand heavily exploited people, is the newest territory to fall under Trump's gaze. The main draw is the mineral resources present there, of which it boasts nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum, and much more than remains unexplored under the ice. But the ice is melting, and profit must be made. There is an additional element of wanting Arctic territory to counter Chinese and especially Russian interests and aims; Russia is increasingly eyeing the northern Arctic route as an alternative to more vulnerable routes through the Suez Canal or around Africa, and is investing heavily in icebreakers for that purpose.
However, even if Europe possessed the desire to resist American annexations - and they absolutely do not, at the end of the day - they do not even have the ability. Denmark may, to a lesser or greater extent, make angry sounds and talk about national honour or some such, but their military would be trampled underfoot by even the New York Police Department, let alone a concerted military effort by the US. If Trump wants Greenland, he will have it. This will naturally increase the grumbling in Europe about reconsidering the Transatlantic alliance, and that grumbling may, in the medium-term future, as the American Empire continues its decline, lead to meaningful results. But in the short term, Europe shall have to bear whatever Trump throws at them, for they obviously cannot now ally with Russia, who was the natural counterweight to American interests for decades before 2022.
Last week's thread is here.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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So what are the news heads predictions for the trump admin?
He's going to try and imitate Ronald Reagan as much as possible, but with key differences. From the "peace through strength" and "maximum pressure" foreign policy slogans which seem very Reagan esque, to trying to secure the United States' strategic future for the next few decades, even at the sacrifice of its allies and domestically. Just how Ronald Reagan fully ushering in neoliberalism accomplished this, Trump will look to do the same with his policies, which might just mean the end of neoliberalism and the ushering in of a new global economic reality, where the USA looks to secure it's future with increased vassalisation and cannibalism of it's allies.
Some might argue that neoliberalism ended in 2008 with the financial crash, but we haven't really switched over to a new economic system globally, we've kind of been in an in between period, while liberal leaders all over the world, in Obama, Merkel, Cameron, Macron, and even Putin prior to 2014, have tried to resurrect, restore, and re-establish the neoliberal world order, and failed. Kind of how the world was in an in between period from 1970 to 1981 with the end of the gold standard. But just as Reagan ended that in between period by fully ushering in neoliberalism, I expect Trump to try an accomplish the same, but this time it means the end for neoliberalism. What does a post neoliberal world look like fully? We can only wait and see.
I expect more open hostility towards Europe, forcing it firmly into vassal status after project Ukraine ends. I do think that the Ukrainian war will end before the end of Trump's term, if he ends it immediately, around US midterms , or just before he leaves office is the question. Russia may not be willing to end the war on a timeline friendly to the US, but at the same time the war cannot go on forever. I think there will be some kind of "maximum pressure" policy on Iran with more sanctions, until a new nuclear deal is reached. That might even mean another Israeli strike on Iran in the meantime, probably not immediately, but as soon as the PsyOps start ringing about Iran being "days/hours away from a nuclear weapon".
Talking about end of neoliberalism is kinda smoke screen i feel, nowhere the neoliberalism (as in - sell state assets to private actors for them to grift, and/or public/private cooperation where state fronts money and private actors get the profit) is ending, if anything it's accelerating, with usa now hollowing out europe socdem remains (like italy or germany). It's more like end of free trade for usa and splitting world into whitey fortress and jungle. I feel like privatizing europe healthcare can feed usa for decades tbh, and europe political system of quadruple control via eu/ec/nato/threat of amerikkkan sanctions can keep them scabing on each other for very long time
Trade restrictions, tariffs, closing the Mexico border, government intervention in key industries with stuff like this CHIPS act, direct intervention in foreign affairs with regards to the Panama canal and Greenland where companies are making direct deals with the US DoD due to government intervention, all those policies run counter to neoliberal globalisation and more towards some kind of protectionism. And these policies started during the first Trump term with the tarrifs on China and anti immigrant rhetoric. I don't think the globalised neoliberal system can be resurrected to a pre 2008 state, under the global capitalist system globalisation and neoliberalism feed each other, a symbiotic relationship if you will.
those are trade (and bribing corpos to move chip production doesn't scream end of neoliberalism), maybe change from laissez-faire neoliberalism to mercantilist neoliberalism. one should disentangle state relation to corporations and state foreign affairs i guess, cause they are coupled in usa, but they weren't in britain or elsewhere not imperial core. they are all still neolibs, even if they couldn't, exactly, free trade their way into prosperity. Would you say south africa is not neoliberal or russia? it's still globalized as in it's everywhere, just seppos realizing they are not getting everything
Are the transitions between dominant economic modes becoming more frequent? Like I imagine whatever is next will be built on even more precarious and violent systems?
Yes, because each one much satisfy a successively hungrier capitalist class after exhausting the previous, cheaper phase of capitalism.
Dread it, run from it, destiny arrives all the same
Immediate fumbling the bag legislatively, some shenanigans at confirmation hearings, probably will start some shit with iran and venezuela, dunno about ukraine. Showy deportation raids which mysteriously don't reach genocide joe numbers and/or don't touch construction/agricultural industry, introduction of tariffs on some subsets of products. Some kind of medicare or social security fumble, which erases republican win by midterm.
oh yeah, market crash by summer (my pet theory)
mini pet theory - return of migrant visas for seasonal workers - bringing h1b to the masses/legalizing whatever shit goes on in agriculture so to say (the worker pays taxes, but are exempt from any protection and minimum wage law)
I think there will be less bag fumbling because there are a lot of Dems who actively want to work with the Trump admin. Like that crazy immigration law that just passed.
Think they'll privatize social security or would it require whitmer leadership?
I think he knows if he can stop Gaza and Ukraine he’ll have enough political capital to start his own thing
Hopefully that “thing” is war against Democrats and mass trials
There are going to be more than 100 executive orders signed on Monday. We’ll know what it’s gonna be like soon enough.
FALGSC with Burger characteristics.
Trump's probably thinking he can combo this Palestine ceasefire with forcing Ukraine to the negotiation table but I don't know if the Kiev regime is even capable of coming to the table until things get significantly worse, like losing Odessa and access to the sea
Nah, both trumpo and russia are fumbling it diplomatically (well, i dunno if russia is, cause their official statements arrived so muted and garbled by west). for clean break ukraine needs election to remove z-man from power, and that fresh face can sign whatever.
Instead z-man is nearing dictatorial powers and have no intention of letting go anytime soon. even bibi, in theory, has some elections some time in future, and war was propping him up as well. So it's not in z-man/local corruption rings interest to stop the war, and he'll continue to fuck up the demands and soldier on. Aside from desertions, there are no signs of any imminent change on the ground (in autumn i thought russians were accelerating map-wise, but that stopped in november, now it's again plodding advances here and there). So z-man will continue to fuck up peace process, and grift germans instead until trumpo changes his mind again
it took me like five minutes to figure out that z-man was zelensky
Newsflash: Trump threatens to strike Odessa if Zelensky doesn't agree to negotiations, outraging NATO allies