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submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] [email protected] 77 points 2 days ago

Democratic congresswoman @RepLauraGillen says of Mamdani: "His comments about intifada, calls for violence against Jewish people, it's really inappropriate for someone like that to lead the city of New York."

[-] [email protected] 52 points 2 days ago

It's funny how we're supposed to believe that Mamdani is a radical Islamist terrorist Jihadist scary man, but the strongest thing that a clown like this can say about him is "it's really inappropriate for someone like that to lead the city of New York." I guess I'm glad they're not doing more (yet) but it feels like HR language when they're talking about him like he's a new Bin Laden.

[-] [email protected] 53 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

you know, that is at least in line with their "trump is an actual literal fascist and we can't be too rude to him" schtick

[-] [email protected] 68 points 2 days ago

Musk can heil hitler on live TV scot free, while the mildest leftist can't even say a genocide is bad

[-] [email protected] 40 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

oh yeah dems tried to recruit elon last month huh

[-] [email protected] 33 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

'Gillen' means screaming in Dutch, which is pretty fitting. peppino-scream

[-] [email protected] 43 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Another reason he seems to be gaining with voters. He seems to be on earth. These dems and Republicans.... Their head is on mars. Just detached. Can't even call out musk for that nazi shit with the same energy they call out anyone left of bush

[-] [email protected] 42 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

"Calls for violence against Jewish people"

They're literally just using people's best guesses about what intifada could mean to stoke fear and panic. It's like when they used the words sharia as a replacement for terrorism for awhile.

[-] [email protected] 38 points 2 days ago

Goddamn they really are in an impenetrable bubble, this zionist cult shit is just making Zohran more popular

[-] [email protected] 37 points 2 days ago

Can't wait for Dems to start endorsing Republicans in NYC

[-] [email protected] 34 points 2 days ago

don't make me tap the sign

[-] [email protected] 22 points 2 days ago

Israel lobby working really fucking hard I see.

[-] [email protected] 110 points 2 days ago

A "Death to the IDF" chant at Glastonbury music festival was broadcast live on the BBC today

https://hexbear.net/post/5406323?scrollToComments=false

[-] [email protected] 54 points 2 days ago

lmaooooooo keir starmer is writing SUCH an angry letter right now

[-] [email protected] 50 points 2 days ago

When hasan showed it on stream I nearly died of laughter

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[-] [email protected] 74 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Dayen;

Senate Dems are going to force a full reading of the Big Beautiful Bill, all 940 pages, on the Senate floor, delaying things by about 15 hours. Apparently advocates had to push @SenSchumer to get this done.

Huge move by the Dems, delaying things by one day! This probably helps the GOP because a lot of GOP Senators are still against it, looks like mostly because of the SALT tax change? The new bill cuts almost $1 trillion from Medicaid, by the way.

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[-] [email protected] 102 points 2 days ago

Fury as Glastonbury crowd chants 'Death to the IDF!' in scenes aired live on the BBC

Punk duo Bob Vylan led crowds in chants of 'Free Palestine' and 'Death to the IDF' on Saturday, prompting fury from supporters of Israel on social media.

The English group was streamed live by the BBC while performing directly before Irish language rap trio Kneecap, who the corporation refused to show live after controversial incidents including one of its members being charged with a terror offence.

The BBC previously confirmed it would not livestream Kneecap's performance but would likely upload an edited version on iPlayer later - but if it hoped to avoid controversy over the war in Gaza bosses will be disappointed.

In the act just before Kneecap, singer/guitarist Bobby Vylan and drummer Bobbie Vylan, who founded their band in 2017 in Ipswich, flashed up a large message in support of Palestinians while their set was being broadcast live by the BBC.

Archived link, I went with the Daily Fail because I like seeing their pearl-clutching.

[-] [email protected] 70 points 2 days ago

prompting fury from supporters of Israel on social media.

Lmao fuckin impotent losers

[-] [email protected] 60 points 2 days ago

Nothing controversial about wanting soldiers committing genocide dead. Then again I shouldn't execpt any better from these Nazi loving propagandist.

[-] [email protected] 38 points 2 days ago

CMAT led a chant of Free Palestine yesterday which was rad, but this got me sicko-spin

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[-] [email protected] 115 points 2 days ago

https://xcancel.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1938607536887779553

@yanisvaroufakis

It seems that our rulers, here in the 'liberal' West, have homed in on a new way of turning a person into a non-person. Here is a man, Hüseyin Doğru, a German journalist (of Turkish origins, but not a dual citizen) whom the EU authorities have found a novel, immensely cruel, way of punishing for his coverage of, and views on, Palestine.

The German authorities learned a lesson from my case. Not wishing to be answerable in court for any ban on pro-Palestinian voices (similar to the court case I am dragging them through currently), they found another way: A direct sanction by the EU utilising some hitherto unused directive, one introduced at the beginning of the Ukraine war, that allows Brussels to sanction any citizen of the EU it deems to be working for Russian interests. Clinging to the argument that Hüseyin’s website/podcast used to be shown also on Ruptly (among other platforms), they are using this directive aimed at an ‘anti-Russian asset’ to destroy a journalist who dared oppose the Palestinian genocide.

In practice, this means that Hüseyin’s bank account is frozen; that if you or I were to give him cash to buy groceries or make rent then we would be considered his accomplices and subject to similar sanctions; it also means that if he were a civil servant, he would be fired; if he were a student he would be expelled from his university; if he received a pension it would be suspended; if he received any social benefit it would be frozen. It also, astonishingly, means that he cannot leave Germany! Last, but definitely not least, it means that Hüseyin cannot sue his government for turning him into a non-person but only challenge the European Commission in Brussels – where he is not even allowed to go!

Need I say more? Is it not abundantly clear that we live, today, in a nominally liberal Europe where, in a jiffy, your political and human rights can be rescinded, including your right to challenge your government in a court of law?

normal Western democracy hours democracy-manifest

[-] [email protected] 46 points 2 days ago
[-] [email protected] 45 points 2 days ago

Yeah, the whole "you can't have any money, and you also can't leave the country" bit... like just imprison him at that point? How is this in any way meaningfully different from just jailing political dissidents?

Even then, prisoners are at least supposed to be fed by the state (albeit not to a necessarily high standard...), this guy literally has to submit a document to gain permission to buy food?! (https://xcancel.com/hussedogru/status/1925845756927197233)

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[-] [email protected] 73 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rdI61hudsRQ Sex pestiny telling idf soldiers not to record their war crimes and have fun. Have fucking fun. These fucking youtubers are devoid of anything resembling humanity. always said he was a psychopath that neolibs sucked off.

[-] [email protected] 42 points 2 days ago

He’s not even particularly bright or interesting. Just the embodiment of Reddit: an arrogant white man in his mid 30’s who still behaves like an edgy middle schooler and seethes at the socially adjusted enjoying their lives while he copes by believing he’s on a higher intellectual level than they are.

[-] [email protected] 29 points 2 days ago

Way too many people gassed him up as an intellectual. Impress a few manchildren on the internet and you get to canvas for dems and get consulted on legit issues

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[-] [email protected] 32 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Fuck the ceasefire tie me to a keibar and fire me at this sorry sack of shit.

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[-] [email protected] 88 points 2 days ago

A new scandal in Arabic social media. The repugnant Queen Rania Abdullah of Jordan and her children attended the ostentatious wedding of Jeff Bezos whose company is heavily involved in the zionist childkilling genocide machine.

Rania is Palestinian, like most of the people living in what is called Jordan.

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[-] [email protected] 59 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

some comments by the Polish osint guy from yesterday...

About Iranian drones... Iran sold Russia the license and documentation for producing the Shahed 136. Russia paid Iran in gold. The first 1000 were delivered by Iran, Russia also builds them in a factory cluster in Alabuga/Yelabuga. When Russia does drone attacks on Ukraine they use 300-500 for a single operation. Russia uses around 100 a day. Iran used around 500 drones in 12 days and 99% of them were shot down. Some were shot down by US missiles which were supposed to be going to Ukraine but were diverted to US bases in West Asia instead. Jordan agreed for its airspace to be used. Syria didn't but Israel didn't care and flew AH-64 Apache helicopters and F-16 Sufa jets over the airspace to shoot the drones down. The fact that Iranian drones didn't play a larger role in the conflict is puzzling. One explanation is Iran was expecting a long war of attrition against US military bases in the region so they were saving them for after the US officially entered the war. Another theory is Israel destroyed them before they could be used. It's also possible Iran didn't have many to begin with because they didn't think they would be needed. When they did strikes on Saudi targets in the past they only used 3 or 4 per operation (I guess he's talking about 2019 here... looking around a bit and it seems that was Yemen launching them though, not Iran)

About the Iranian airforce... The Iranian airforce might not be modern but since the country is large and mountainous they should still have been able to orchestrate some ambush attacks in valleys and by flying close to the earth (similar to North Vietnamese MiG-21 attacks on US forces during the Vietnam war). There were no air battles during these 12 days. There is some footage of Iranian F-4 phantoms flying by, but not much else. Iranian airport runways were damaged, and 10-12 Iranian F-14s were also damaged while on the ground. Also since most of the Iranian airforce planes are old they rely more on coordination with on-the-ground operators/air command, which in turn relies on long range radio-location stations to get info about where the enemy is and directs the Iranian planes where to ambush the enemy. A lot of that on-the-ground infrastructure was damaged or destroyed by Israeli commandos so the pilots were left in a fog without guidance from the ground. Iran's radio-location stations are also dated technologically so they didn't detect the F-35s, which have modern stealth tech.

About Iranian ballistic missiles... Around 4-7% Iranian missiles hit their target in the beginning, the rate increased to 35% and then 50% toward the end of the war, while the missile count went down to 20 per attack, and they were launched every second day. If we average it across the 12 days it was around a 25% hit rate, even taking into account US support like THAADs, MIM-104 Patriots, SM-3s. Since each incoming missile requires a few attempts to shoot down, Israel was starting to run out of missiles fast and some experts say they had enough left for 2 or 3 more days. Iran entered the war with 2000 mid-range (1300-2000km) ballistic missiles, used around 600, around 300 were destroyed/disabled/blocked, so they still had around 800-1000 left. Israel damaged the entrances to Iran's missile launch sites but attempts were made to re-open them during the war.

While 65% of Iranian anti-air was destroyed, footage of Israeli F-15s and F-16s shows them carrying 3 or 4 fuel tanks each, so that's 70-80% of the load occupied by fuel. It's a long flight to Iran. They were usually carrying maneuvering missiles like Delilah used for precision strikes.

Israel did more damage to Iran overall but if the war was going well for them they wouldn't have agreed to a ceasefire/pause. Western media and doctors in Israel are reporting obsessive censorship around damaged targets so that suggests they got hit hard and are trying to hide it. None of the parties in the war felt like they were winning so they decided it's better to stop for now.

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[-] [email protected] 71 points 2 days ago

Today, hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Tehran to pay their respects to the martyrs of the war imposed by the US-israel against Iran.

These are a people who will never be defeated.

[-] [email protected] 84 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DLcNkjao8qV/

NEW: Direct actionists are now claiming their actions under an organisation called "Yvette Cooper" - aka the British Home Secretary currently attemtping to proscribe and label Palestine Action as a terrorist group.

The logic is that if Palestine Action were to be banned and support for their cause illegalised, surely the British state must proscribe and illegalise support for "Yvette Cooper"!

Whether it's a temporary joke at the british judicial system's hypocrisy over how it suppresses antizionism and supports genocide, or a genuine tactic that will become concrete within the militant opposition to the zionist entity in Britain, is truly up to the brave comrades who put their livelihoods on the line to fight imperialism.

Either way. Lol lmao.

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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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