this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024

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182

Bulletins and News Discussion from November 18th to November 24th, 2024 - Could It Soon Be Azover? - COTW: Ukraine (hexbear.net)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

1811 comments fedilink hide all child comments

back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now

Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

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[–] [email protected] 62 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (3 children)

https://xcancel.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1860510537303441418

@AntonLaGuardia: INDOPACOM commander, Adml Samuel Paparo, says he expects Russia will provide submarine technology to China that will help it to close the gap with the US. Also expects RU to provide missile and sub technology to North Korea. #HFX2024

Biden’s idea of a smart tradeoff: approving/assisting ATACMs missile strikes inside Russia, changing nothing in a lost war…vs pushing Russia to transfer submarine tech to China and N Korea giving them near peer submarine capabilities. He’s just that fucking good.

putin-wink solidarity xigma-male ... biden-forgor

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[–] [email protected] 55 points 3 days ago (5 children)

israel has like 300? getting close to that 30 percent zone

[–] [email protected] 51 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

up to 60 now! 3 in a single operation is wild

Hezbollah so far today destroyed 6 Israeli Merkavas, 3 in a single operation, and 3 yesterday.

Hezbollah has destroyed over 60 Israeli Merkavas in less than two months since the invasion.

All crews of the destroyed tanks were killed and wounded.

from https://xcancel.com/EyesOnSouth1/status/1860720752942514483

[–] [email protected] 40 points 3 days ago (3 children)

They have around 400, and around 900 stored in the balls

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Is that just in Lebanon? They’ve lost hundreds in Gaza at this point.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Hard to say how many were recoverable in Gaza though, you can't exactly follow up to confirm destruction, a lot could have been repaired.

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (7 children)

Exit polls for Romanian elections

Ciolacu-25%

Lasconi-18%

Georgescu-16%

Simion-15%

Ciuca-14%

Geoana-5%

Not counting diaspora vote

Very surprising,Trump 2016 style surge for Georgescu,the russophile reactionary,in rest the results are pretty expected

We'll have to see what comes out after the votes are counted

There is a distinct possibility of a PSD-USR runoff in the second round,and if that's the case,I'm putting my money on Ciolacu

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[–] [email protected] 48 points 3 days ago (2 children)

https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/1860538358205755641

Remember that Ukraine retains a vested interest in fomenting a wider war, no matter what decisions their sponsors may or may not have made in the matter. Every cope drone raid or jury-rigged Ukrainian ballistic is going to be claimed as Western missiles from now on.

As expected, the huge ATACMS raid from earlier turned into a bunch of cope drones and two unidentified but apparently not very threatening missiles once the smoke cleared. These rumors WILL keep circulating going forward, however.

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[–] [email protected] 55 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (4 children)

random stuff pulled out from the Polish osint guy's last interview from Friday:

The Yuzhmash factory in Dnepropetrovsk had around 40k employees during the late USSR years, it made ballistic missiles but also other stuff like trolleybuses. It kept producing and servicing stuff for the Russian army like the R-36M ICBMs. After the 2014 coup in Ukraine it lost 80% of its business. In 2018 it had around 7k contract workers left and it has been making ballistic missiles like the Hrim-2 for the Ukrainian army, so it makes sense it would be a strike target for Russia.
He suspects the Russians notified the west about a return strike when the embassies started closing and not 30 mins before the strike like Peskov said.
Pro-Ukrainian propaganda is saying the Oreshnik strike is no big deal actually because 'Russia only has a few of these missiles' and also the 'US is going to reverse engineer it from the scraps at Yuzhmash'. Dnepropetrovsk has at least one Patriot system, which failed to intercept it.
He thinks the new missile is called Oreshnik because it looks like a hazel flower when it comes down.
In his short address Putin said Russia reserves the right to attack objects belonging to countries that have shared weapons with Ukraine which were used for attacks on Russian territory. Since he said 'objects' and not 'territory' that could for example mean submarine strikes on UK/French military bases in the Caribean sea or in Africa.
Some pro-Ukrainian analysts say one Zircon missile got shot down over Kyiv, but he's not convinced.
Ukraine has Patriot-Fs (newer model) because one was identified after kinetically intercepting an Iskander-M over Odessa and falling down.
There's a bit about the Russian nuclear doctrine update but it's long enough for another post. The previous version's language was more precise and listed a range of specific scenarios, the new one is much more loose about the qualifying circumstances. Russian military bases abroad and military ships are covered now. Belarusian territory is mentioned now.

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[–] [email protected] 49 points 3 days ago

Folks,,.,, I have written another long post about Singapore and Malaysia. Doing some final proof-reading, but I’ll post it tomorrow on GenZedong and the News Megathread as per usual.

To make it tangentially news related, here’s a headline:

Bernama - Vietnam, Malaysia Elevate Bilateral Relations To Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

This is Viet Nam’s first CSP in ASEAN. They have been promoting a lot countries lately, interesting out of all ASEAN, Malaysia’s came through first.

The General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam To Lam announced the elevation of bilateral relations between Malaysia and Vietnam to a comprehensive strategic partnership…

“We also pledge to support each other on our respective courses of development, and we will continue to work closely to expand and deepen our friendship and political trust between our two countries,” Lam said.

He noted that the strengthened ties would be based on respect for international law, as well as each other’s political systems, independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, following the laws and regulations of their respective nations and grounded in a principle of non-interference…

On regional and international matters, Lam reaffirmed Vietnam’s support for Malaysia in promoting peace, security, and stability, particularly in the South China Sea.

He mentioned the importance of adhering to international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 and promoting peaceful dispute resolution in the region.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

‘Closer to the caste’ – Javier Milei slams Victoria Villarruel, his own vice-president - Buenos Aires Times

Article

President Javier Milei opens up on relationship with Vice-President Victoria Villarruel, declaring in an interview that she has “no influence on decision-making” in his government and doesn’t take part in Cabinet meetings.

President Javier Milei has laid bare his dissatisfaction with Vice-President Victoria Villarruel, declaring that she has “no influence” on decision-making in his government and criticising her proximity to business leaders and politicians.

Milei let rip at Villarruel directly in a television interview, stating that she had “decided not to participate” in Cabinet meetings and implying that their relationship is at its worst moment. In the past, the La Libertad Avanza has refrained from criticising his second-in-command, but for the first time, he challenged her directly.

“We have the relationship that is needed institutionally to fulfil our roles,” Milei said when asked about their relationship during an extensive interview with the LN+ news channel. “Villarruel has no influence whatsoever in the decision-making process. She does not participate in Cabinet meetings. She decided not to participate. She has long since decided not to take part in Cabinet meetings,” he revealed.

“In her vision, in many of the things we do… she is closer to the red circle, to what she calls high politics, and what we call ‘the caste,’” declared Milei. It’s not the first time that reports of tensions between La Libertad Avanza’s top two have emerged. Earlier this year, Villarruel described Milei as a “poor little ham” sandwiched between herself and his sister, presidential chief-of-staff Karina Milei – whom he describes as “the boss.”

Milei’s frigid relationship with his veep has been an open secret in Buenos Aires government circles for months. But the President hadn’t openly acknowledged just how much her role had diminished until now, and he used the interview to make clear who’s boss. “My sister, the so-called pastry chef or whatever they called her — as if that were a crime — who doesn’t know anything about politics, in six months created a political party,” he said in the Wednesday interview. “Look at where the pastry chef got us.”

Villarruel, a hard-right conservative, made a name for herself as the founder of a non-profit organisation that denounced the crimes of leftist guerrilla groups during the right-wing dictatorship that seized power in 1976. In her public appearances, she often focuses on more traditional priorities of the Argentine right, championing cases against abortion, LGBTQ education in schools and prison terms she regards as too lax.

Tensions between Villarruel, 49, and Milei, 53, flared too during attempts to pass legislation and presidential decrees through the Senate, which the vice-president heads. Allies of the President accused Villarruel of not doing enough to resist opposition pressure. She was also criticised for approving pay hikes for lawmakers and staff in Congress.

Villarruel drew Milei’s ire recently when she met in Madrid with María Estela Martínez de Perón, who was president of Argentina from 1974 to 1976 and succeeded Juan Domingo Perón — the founding father of Argentina’s Peronist movement. After the trip, Villarruel unveiled a statue in her honour in the Senate, which Milei criticised.

“It’s her house,” Milei said, referring to the Senate. “You surely won’t find that in mine.” Commentators say the duo's relationship was severely damaged by Milei’s decision to hand control of the Defence and Security Ministries – Villarruel’s preferred areas of government – to his former campaign rival-turned-ally Patricia Bullrich and her vice-presidential pick, Luis Petri.

“I didn’t like it,” Villarruel said previously of Milei’s decision. “But I respect it.” The two leaders are hardly the first presidential pair to clash. Milei’s predecessor in office, Alberto Fernández, was at loggerheads with his vice-president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, during their 2019-2023 government, with the duo reportedly going months without talking.

[–] [email protected] 100 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (12 children)

Handala, an Iranian hacker group, in revenge for the killing of Yahya Sinwar, hacked the infamous 'Israeli' 8200 intelligence unit and released the info of over 35,000 Mossad, Shin Bet and other security establishment employees.

PDF of the leak: https://files.catbox.moe/3l1lkm.pdf

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