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Sounda reasonable considering all the situation but western MIC oligarchs won't let Ukraine take that deal100%
This isn't reasonable, this is crazily generous, especially considering the state of the war. Only thing Ukraine lose is places that already publicly stated they don't want to be in Ukraine. But in that proposition they don't lose Odessa and with it the Black Sea access, they don't lose Kharkov, they stay as viable state instead of rump remains, they don't have to denazify, they won't have to change government, and the most importantly, killing stops now.
Yeah, no chance their handlers will allow them to agree.
Those are incredibly reasonable terms
I haven't kept up with shit in Ukraine well the past few months but this was my uneducated, gut reaction as well. Seems super reasonable.
Of course, they won't be going for it since their donors won't let them.
Definitely a reasonable point to start negotiations. The Russians barely hold anything in Kherson, but you don't start where you want. Otherwise, you don't have any leeway in negotiations.
I'm not that up to date, so I would like to ask other people: why now? Has Russia decided that the war is too costly to be worthwhile continuing, or does Putin expect that he has demonstrated that Ukraine could never win a war against Russia? I know he's proposed private peace deals, and I imagine they had similar terms.
Either way, I really doubt Zelesky will accept peace. This war has been way to beneficial for America. They've bought up public Ukranian assets, blown up the Nord Stream, made a shit load of money selling arms, cultivated massively successful propaganda, made Europe way more dependant on them, and so on. Zelesky would probably be being paid a visit from the men in black if he accepted this deal.
They’ve probably been offering this deal privately for more than a year now. I guess at this point they feel it’s been long enough to demonstrate that Ukraine can’t kick them out even with NATO weapons. They’re making the offer public to put pressure on Zelenskyy and make him seem less reasonable with his completely unrealistic hard position of pre-2014 borders.
How well it will work I don’t know.
public proposal to cut through the narratives they're spinning in Kiev, i imagine the expectation is that Ukrainians & especially conscripts will hear 'lose the troublesome provinces for peace' and rally to pressure the government. for Russia, a withdrawal of Ukraine's troops will achieve what would probably take months in terms of territory, despite the 'Ukraine is collapsing' hype Russia hasn't exactly been making rapid progress
my best guess would be that this weekend is the swiss peace summit where they invited like ninety countries but not russia. putting out the barest, most basic sounding demands is an easy play when you aren’t even invited to the current version of peace talks. it’ll make ukraine’s demands for crimea, belgorod, kaliningrad, and billion dollar annual reparations look ridiculous in a few days, if the talks even get that far. you’re right that the west isn’t done, but the west is the one cooking up this swiss conference
I think this is just about setting the legal precedent, make sure that there are official negotiations more recent than April '22. This refusal will certainly be referenced in the future when they will make further demands using this as a justification i.e you had the chance, you refused and caused even more harm, therefore we are in our right to demand further compensation.
There are also other factors to consider, the situation for Ukrainian civilians is getting worse, electricity is almost completely out and it is going to get much worse. Putting an official record that Russia is willing to end the war now is certainly going to affect a significant part of the population.
Obviously its not like stupid democracy shit is real at all, they're not going to protest their way into a peace deal with Russia, but this can lead to civil unrest which means even less manpower which just ultimately means Russia continues to steamroll.
How DARE Putler™ reiterate the ceasefire conditions that haven't changed since the start of the conflict!
So what would this mean for those four regions? Fully subsumed into Russia? Becoming an independent country but identifying as ethnically Russian? Staying Ukrainian but granted some sort of semi-autonomous status?
iirc DPR and LPR are already part of Russia, they would need to do new paperwork on Kherson and Zapo though
EDIT: I did not recall correctly
my vibes-based reading:
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this is in response to the peace conference (the one russia isn't invited to lol), not any major shifts on the battlefield or in the geopolitical situation
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the target audience is the ukrainian public, not the ukrainian/western leadership
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the russian government knows there's no chance ukraine is willing (or able) to accept this ceasefire proposal. that doesn't necessarily mean they're not prepared to follow through should ukraine agree, but the extremely generous terms they're presenting here are probably based on the assumption that ukraine will immediately reject it.
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when ukraine is eventually forced to the negotiation table, the russian proposal will be far less generous.
of course this very reasonable list will be framed as evil putler's ravings 😈
I think Ukraine will accept the peace terms and here is my analysis for why:
Hexbear was wrong about invading Ukraine, therefore it will be wrong about how the war ends. Also clownworld
Ukraine will never ever ever ever accept the peace deal, nope, will never happen, we will also never solve climate change ever, ever, ever, Palestine will never be free either ever, never, nope, everything is completely hopeless and we will never achieve communism
{|I hope this works}
Ukraine and their backers aren't capable of agreeing to this, they're just too deep in the fantasy. The only reason I can think of for making this declaration again, which is really just a call for Ukraine to recognize the current reality of the situation, is for posterity.
A last off ramp before the Russians commit more and then demand more for resolution. It could only be a matter of time before Russia insists on Kharkiv oblast as a response to the terror bombing of civilians in Belgorod.
People when the literal last Ukrainian is hiding in a shelter dressed in army gear with boots kicking down the door: Nooooo, we have them on the ropes!