Sounda reasonable considering all the situation but western MIC oligarchs won't let Ukraine take that deal100%

Those are incredibly reasonable terms

I'm not that up to date, so I would like to ask other people: why now? Has Russia decided that the war is too costly to be worthwhile continuing, or does Putin expect that he has demonstrated that Ukraine could never win a war against Russia? I know he's proposed private peace deals, and I imagine they had similar terms.

Either way, I really doubt Zelesky will accept peace. This war has been way to beneficial for America. They've bought up public Ukranian assets, blown up the Nord Stream, made a shit load of money selling arms, cultivated massively successful propaganda, made Europe way more dependant on them, and so on. Zelesky would probably be being paid a visit from the men in black if he accepted this deal.

I think this is just about setting the legal precedent, make sure that there are official negotiations more recent than April '22. This refusal will certainly be referenced in the future when they will make further demands using this as a justification i.e you had the chance, you refused and caused even more harm, therefore we are in our right to demand further compensation.

There are also other factors to consider, the situation for Ukrainian civilians is getting worse, electricity is almost completely out and it is going to get much worse. Putting an official record that Russia is willing to end the war now is certainly going to affect a significant part of the population.

Obviously its not like stupid democracy shit is real at all, they're not going to protest their way into a peace deal with Russia, but this can lead to civil unrest which means even less manpower which just ultimately means Russia continues to steamroll.

How DARE Putler™ reiterate the ceasefire conditions that haven't changed since the start of the conflict!

So what would this mean for those four regions? Fully subsumed into Russia? Becoming an independent country but identifying as ethnically Russian? Staying Ukrainian but granted some sort of semi-autonomous status?

my vibes-based reading:

• this is in response to the peace conference (the one russia isn't invited to lol), not any major shifts on the battlefield or in the geopolitical situation

• the target audience is the ukrainian public, not the ukrainian/western leadership

• the russian government knows there's no chance ukraine is willing (or able) to accept this ceasefire proposal. that doesn't necessarily mean they're not prepared to follow through should ukraine agree, but the extremely generous terms they're presenting here are probably based on the assumption that ukraine will immediately reject it.

• when ukraine is eventually forced to the negotiation table, the russian proposal will be far less generous.

of course this very reasonable list will be framed as evil putler's ravings 😈

Ukraine and their backers aren't capable of agreeing to this, they're just too deep in the fantasy. The only reason I can think of for making this declaration again, which is really just a call for Ukraine to recognize the current reality of the situation, is for posterity.

A last off ramp before the Russians commit more and then demand more for resolution. It could only be a matter of time before Russia insists on Kharkiv oblast as a response to the terror bombing of civilians in Belgorod.

I think Ukraine will accept the peace terms and here is my analysis for why:
Hexbear was wrong about invading Ukraine, therefore it will be wrong about how the war ends. Also clownworld

People when the literal last Ukrainian is hiding in a shelter dressed in army gear with boots kicking down the door: Nooooo, we have them on the ropes!