Hold on to your butts, comrades. We're about to get a preview of 2050. I just checked the live data, and the area off the coast of South America that is the index water for ENSO is 9° F above average in places. This is going to be a wild year.
If you do not have an AC, please obtain one or be aware of where to reach one; it's becoming a question of survival, not comfort. And monitor humidity levels and temperature where you live during heatwaves. We have already reached the day of regular lethal heatwaves, and it will get worse - I fully expect heatwaves to kill millions annually in years, not decades. In fact I suspect they already kill tens of thousands annually in say, India, but it's not properly being counted / reported on.
I live in the EU and one of my friend had a family member die in the recent major heatwave. The victim was 40, living alone, body found days later in their flat. When they called the forensic doctor dude to get a cause of death the family was very surprised about the fact it was the heat, and the doctor explained they saw several bodies a day of victims that were in their 30s.
And bear in mind this is from the direct effects; the agricultural yields collapses we're about to see will likely kill far more.
I live in Europe and plan to get a portable AC in winter, when hopefully prices are lower. I need one that can be installed without drilling a hole and without having to ask my landlord or even tell him about it. There are ACs exactly like that and they jumped in price first from originally about 600€ to 800€ and now 2000€+. It comes with window insulation with a small hole for the narrow hose connecting the inside to the outside part, which sits on a hanging fixture. You leave your window slightly open, but there's no air exchange because of the insulation. I really hope prices will drop. Is that naive?
one would hope the prices come down, but the common "window units" in the US just basically sit in a window.
the kind of window where the bottom half slides up. thats where you set the window unit, on the window sill, and then close the top on it. then it has some filler piece that expands to the sides to close the gaps, but you can stuff anything in there. it releases heat (using a heat pump) outside the window and cycles air from inside the house that it cools.
it can be surprising how effective they are, but one unit typically handles enough air to cool a single room. so shutting doors or hanging fabric helps.
no holes in walls are needed, and the thing plugs into an outlet inside the house.
if i were some kind of guy who had a boat load of cash, i would be filling shipping containers with them and US/EU power adapters, because an entry level, small window unit here is under $200 USD. and oftentimes, one cool room is all you need to make it through a heat wave.
If you have tilt & turn windows your only option is a mini split AC.
If you have other windows, midea has u-shaped window A/C units which may help with some window designs that typical US style window units wouldn't accommodate. 
Be aware with these (don't get me wrong they are wonderfully effective and efficient, especially if you foam around the minimal openings properly) you absolutely have to tilt them properly and clean them monthly if you don't want legionnaire's disease or other mold growth.
Source: Someone that got the refund after using AI video to 'cut the cord' because it still works just fine if you clean it regularly and have it set up per the manual, but fuck corporations.
prices do typically drop in colder months, at least in my area (midwest usa). I would suggest being open to traditional window units as well as they’re typically cheaper than the kind you’re describing (and equally effective iirc). You do need to drill a couple holes into the window frame but the holes won’t even be visible when the windows closed.
Idk what landlord/rental rules are like where you live but personally I’d tell a landlord to go fuck themselves if two holes at the bottom of a window was a major issue.
traditional window units
I am aware these exist thanks to reading US comments on the web, but I have never ever seen one in the EU. Then again I very very rarely see windows that open like these here either.
If you can't drill / install an actual unit (with external condenser) we either have those, which are extremely inefficient energy-wise, don't work that well, and require you to have a large tube connected to the outside (so window opened with an isolation kit), or stuff like these where it's an actual AC unit with an external block - the condenser - but transportable, and you still need a cable to the outside but a much smaller one (along with an isolation kit).
Yes, I was looking at one similar to the last example. They exploded in price.
If you get the former, with the single hose, they have a really stupid design choice where they drop the second hose it needs to work properly, which makes them massively less effective. However you can easily duct tape a second hose over the heater-intake to make it work properly.
https://www.woolie.co.uk/article/convert-ac-from-single-hose-to-dual-hose/
Ahh, having just one hose for marketability is so stupid! Thanks, the pictures helped me understand at a glance how, with just one hose, air pressure inevitably must lead to warm air rushing in from somewhere if the machine is supposed to work at all, even if you close the doors and windows. It's clever to fix this terrible design flaw.
I’m praying that none of my neighbours get AC because our neighbourhood has many trees and other sorts of greens that lower the temperature and AC will just heat up the streets and make being outside unbearable during and after heatwaves.
So we should show up to work tomorrow to keep this capitalist system alive and cooking?
Until the material conditions are there for a revolution (regular climate-linked mass-death events might definitely induce that, for example). Meanwhile one should do what one can to survive, read, and if at all possible educate, agitate and organize.
So what can my brother do, who works for a finance firm that invested $9billion into Palantir, who still thinks "High GDP = Human Progress" and capitalism is good, has a maths degree, has multiple kids who's futures he thinks is totally fine because "money," who has faith that technology will solve all our climate issues so investing into oil companies ain't that bad, and even if his firm isn't doing good for the earth at least he donates 25% of his salary to tax-reclaimable charities? Who believes in "effective altruism"? Who considers himself among "the capitalist class" because he now has enough money to make investments? Who still believes that everyone is responsible for their own circumstance, and if you're poor it's because you were financially irresponsible and lazy? Who thinks "material circumstances" are a cop-out? Who thinks Einstein is a brilliant man but can't take 20 minutes to read his "why socialism" article?
For the millions of people with any spending power who can afford to buy their own home and afford private healthcare, their salaries depend on them to believe in the system, love capitalism, and protect that status quo... Where do they fit in this hypothetical revolution?
Who believes in "effective altruism"
That's really really bad, though I'm sure you're fully aware.
As for the rest of your comment, the material benefits you describe are ultimately in large part extracted from exploited countries through imperialism; I suspect that's where you'd see the first modern switches away from our current system (look at Burkina Faso for example), not in the imperial core. How many of these treats are actually manufactured in the west ? what happens when they can't impose their world order ?
Look also towards countries like China; it's going to become really obvious really soon they're able to offer much more material benefits to their citizen than countries like the US, for a fraction of the cost and the environmental impact. It will become hard to explain such a disparity. This has already begun.
And also, and again: we're entering a really dangerous zone. Most of our climate predictions were based on extremely optimistic scenarios and models not taking into account unquantifiable feedback loops; as well as carbon-removal technology that has never been demonstrated at scale, and that would be all but impossible to implement in a capitalist system even if it was. And we're still emitting more and more each year. Much of what you describe may come to an end sooner than expected.
I agree with all of this, but it doesn't answer the question. For many many people, people like my brother, who live a life of benefit from the capitalist system that is cooking our planet - where do they fit into the hypothetical revolution? All those words you've typed are things I've been trying to talk to him, my family, and everyone about. They just go "yeah it sucks," and continue spending more time working for capitalists than spending time with their own family. They simply aren't willing to listen, they don't care, and why should they? Why would they give up their privileges? And if a massive climate disaster event occurs, do you think that'll be enough to convince them? Or will their lifetime of invested loyalty have them double down to defend centralized food corporations that decide who does or doesn't get to eat because "they offered me a competitive salary to work for them"? Because depending on a climate-collapse-induced-revolution I think is extremely pie-eyed, most people will happily side with fascists if they're the one providing food and "jobs." To some extent, people like my brother are already doing that. So what of them?
And if a massive climate disaster event occurs, do you think that'll be enough to convince them
For a lot of people, I do. I think many people like this are ultimately buried in their cultural context, and never had an event breaking them out of that mould / making them question what are for them basic assumptions about reality.
I think the vast majority of people are good and would care; it takes constant reinforcement to make them accept (and for many, barely, despite the image they may project) their constant participation in an absurd, evil system and to make them actively link their self-worth to it.
Also, at the end of the day, there are more and more people barely surviving and there are less and less people like your brother as time goes on; eventually we reach a critical threshold. And at that threshold there are a lot more of the former than the latter willing to fight.
For a lot of people, I do. I think many people like this are ultimately buried in their cultural context, and never had an event breaking them out of that mould / making them question what are for them basic assumptions about reality.
I used to think this also, and then I saw huge numbers of people dying of COVID while still insisting it wasn't a real disease. Now I'm not so sure.
I saw the same testimonies; but huge numbers of people, I'm not sure. Even most of the antivaxx people ended up terrified asking (too late) for the vaccine while dying I suspect (at least I saw just as many testimonies like this than like the first ones).
You're describing the bourgeoisie. they're invested in the system because the system works for them. They don't lead the revolution, they're the counter revolutionaries.
Either (1) the system will break down so much that it's not worth it for him to support it because it no longer enables his material comfort, then he can join the revolution, or (2) as the system breaks down, he'll fight for the last remaining scraps divvied out to loyalists and become an enforcer against the changing tides. Realistically, he'll enjoy luxury and comfort the rest of his days, and his descendents will have to make those decisions.
They have a choice to make, we can't make it for them. Socialism or barbarism.
If you want a purely material class analysis of people like your brother (where their believes don't matter): for people in the imperial core, who are not landlords, but get paid high enough wages to invest significant amounts of money, but they still go to work, their class position depends first on their investment. Do they make enough money "passively" from their investment alone, ignoring wages, to live a life of average comfort if they were to quit their job on the spot? Than they are capitalists who labor "on the side", but are no longer forced to sell their capacity to work. From a revolution, they stand to gain a functioning, crisis free system, the survival of the planet, peace and the end of oppressive hierarchies. But they would lose their class privileges and have a lower living standard.
If the income from their investment is to little to live off, they are still forced to sell their labor and they are still part of the working class, no matter their lack in class consciousness. Even, if they say they are "capitalists", they are wrong. However, the working class is split and I'd like to point out two ways how: betrayal and class compromise. Examples for jobs, that try to form workers into class traitors are any jobs who discipline workers and enjoy privileges in return: like police, foreman, judges, managers with low/medium income, teachers, social workers etc. But not everyone in such a job necessarily becomes a class traitor. Some work against what's expected of them to show solidarity. This is almost non existent in cops, but very common in teachers and almost the norm in social workers even though they all have a disciplinary or controlling role, but to different extends, with different levels of political consciousness. Other privileges arise because of racism and patriarchy. Again, allies are possible who actively reject their privilege.
An example for class compromise: in the imperial core, they are likely part of the labor aristocracy and are privileged from unequal exchange, overexploitation and accumulation through dispossession. Another example: the 1968 generation dropped revolution and anti-imperialism in turn for increased personal liberties.
Keep in mind, that borders between class positions are constantly shifting with technological development and class struggle.
So what of them?
Your question cannot be answered in advance, and when it can be properly considered, it's likely you'll be the best judge of it.
Luckily the line has hit the top of the Y-axis so it won’t get any warmer. It’s maxed out.
i don't dare think of the environmental crisis/es and their consequences that we will face in the next decades, else i might just lose the will to live.
The probability for a 3.5 standard deviation event under null hypothesis is supposedly 0.0465%. So this one line alone confirms climate change with 99.9535% probability.
Haha, my family lives in one of the most hurricane prone parts of the world :l
This is gonna be a year
Strong El Niño effects are known to actually limit hurricanes, so at least there's that.
Huh, good to know. I would have expected the opposite. That does make me feel better, thanks
Yeah, it's the wind currents, they tend to sheer off the tops of accumulating clouds and take a lot of power out of the storms.
I assume this means an absolutely brutal hurricane season this fall for the Caribbean/gulf coast/east coast?
no, they are opposed usually (but not always), this one means bad pacific hurricanes (phillipines, china+taiwan, japan etc, some of those had flooding issues already with unusual weather 2 years before i believe)
Yeah, ocean temps in the Atlantic tend to be slightly cooler during El Niño years, which suppresses hurricane activity a bit.
On the other hand, if ever a hurricane-like cyclone were to devastate Los Angeles, this would be the year.
Can't you post something more sensible than Genocider units? Get with the program like everyone else and use SI ffs
DT = 9ºF = 5⁰C
Also = 5K
That’s legitimately terrifying.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation_in_the_United_States maybe helpful reading, idk cuz I haven't read it yet
Okay but have you thought about the oil cartels' profits?
I have no intuition for what the actual consequences of this might be, so all I can do is look at it and ask "is that good"
Good from what perspective?
Do you want everything larger then a squirrel dead?
Not in general, no. ENSO has complicated impacts that vary by region: some places should expect more snow this winter, and some much less. It pushes the major atmospheric circulation patterns--including the Pacific jet stream--off their usual tracks. What that does depends on where you are. Here's the map for expected US impacts, based on standard El Niño effects:
On a more global scale, a strong El Niño is associated with hotter than average temperatures. Very strong El Niño years (e.g. 1997, 2016, and to a lesser extent 2023) are usually when we see global temperature records really breaking hard. See here:
Each of these is amplified by the increasing amount of extra warming already baked into the system; El Niño and climate change compound one another. The graph I posted originally can be thought of as a distribution of "El Niño strength" over the years. You can see that we're way, way above even the strongest signal in recent memory, so we should expect extreme statistial outliers. It will take the atmosphere some time to catch up to the ocean, since ENSO is a phenomenon that originates in ocean currents. You can think of it as kind of like turning on a lava lamp: it takes some time for the heat to propagate and start creating interesting flows in the fluid medium. You'll start getting strong atmsopheric impacts in November or so. I'd expect 2027 to absolutely shatter global temperature records.
In order to sound like a proper ghoul: What should I invest in in order to properly profit from these sky high temperatures?
Plants that grow 1-2 USDA Hardiness Zones warmer than the current map says your area is.
You're gonna profit so hard when you're the only person in your neighborhood with food.
You've also got to look at precipitation and max temperature too, though. The USDA map really only takes the average extreme low temperature into account. That's changing, but it ain't the only thing.
Very good point!
Get in early on any prediction market for 2027 setting a global temperature record.
The lying machine told me it'll be okay we're not all going to die it's just gonna be really cold and wet in winter (for me, specifically)
Don't tell me it's wrong, I don't wanna know!
Hahahaha i just put this image into search with "scale of 1 to 10 how fucked are we" and it was very clear to tell me it's not a world ending event, but, 8 or 9. It also joyously informed be that 2027 is going to be even hotter
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