Ask Lemmygrad

A basic precondition for change is reunification with Taiwan. Reunification with Taiwan means the first island chain has been breached and China is no longer encircled by sea. Once China is no longer encircled by land (via the BRI) nor by sea (via reunification with Taiwan), that's when China can start to make offensive plays.

The policy will not change. It does not need to. The Chinese will intervene when it is needed they have already done so a few times. They are pragmatic, and biding their time. Building mutually beneficial relationships. But look to Korea to see what happens when they feel the need to get involved directly.

In China the Japnese invasion and atrocities are still freshly remembered. They know the pain of being brutalized by imperialism. If the US plays around and strikes China they will wake a sleeping dragon. China will not start a conflict, but once one begins they will not hesitate to meet the challenge.

China isnt isolationist. They are pragmatic. Soft power is more effective at the current time. Do not let their pragmatism fool you though. The dragon may be resting, but it has not lost its teeth.

They are specifically designing a new medium range bomber/fighter to strike US airbases in the pacific. They have the undeniable best destroyer in the world. No ship can match it. They are an entire generation ahead in cyber warfare. They have more industrial capacity, better infrastructure, better self sufficiency, more manpower, etc. It is not a question of IF the US will fuck around and find out but WHEN.

I wouldn't call their policy passive. It's respectful of self determination and mutually beneficial whenever it can be, but they're still willing to be defensive and retaliate in tariffs against the US, and they still work on R&D for things like weapon tech. I'd argue it just looks passive in relation to the standard set by colonizers as active violence and intimidation being the only means to achieve anything.

That said, even from a cynical power standpoint, most countries in history don't benefit from active war. Look at the losses the USSR suffered from WWII and how poor of a position that put it in. Meanwhile, the US has never had to deal with a major war on its soil from a foreign adversary (unless I guess you count the original "revolutionary" war formation of it?) and it has been able to dodge a lot of the direct damage from a war by using proxies whenever possible. This is one reason an alternative like BRICS is so important. It links China up with other countries in an interdependent relationship, so that China cannot be isolated and sniped at so easily. As long as China is able to continue to build on this form of interdependent power, they should be able to avoid most need for hot war, by shifting the balance toward sovereignty, against imperialism, and by extension make it all the more difficult and complicated for the empire to keep its hold. The empire won't want to go down without a fight, but the more it loses its logistical hold on all the various tendrils, the harder it will be for it to do that fight without serious damage to its core. So then you see stuff like Trump admin and Biden admin before him trying to reaffirm the tendrils, whether more subtly or through threats and intimidation, and some of it appears to work for a time at least. But the anti-imperialists of the world, well they will have to make sure that doesn't last.

No, and they have nothing to gain from interfering in other countries. That'll sow distrust in minor nations that so far relied on them specifically due to their non-interference (compare it to the IMF), and invite destructive attacks from major countries and imperialist nations.

The most they should do is try to block reactionary interventions through institutional means like the UN security council, and retaliate only against those who attack them. Look to China as inspiration and an example, but do not wait for them to export revolution anytime soon.

It will have to. China's policy of self development and economic diplomacy has worked amazingly but it isn't unstoppable. As it is quite obvious the us and europe have gotten wise to China's game and are working to find a counter. I doubt China will be the one to initiate the change in policy but the change will come. As much as capitalists would love to sell the rope that will hang them the imperialists wont let that happen. Eventually the west will do what it has to to disrupt the rise of China and they will have to change tack.

No and they shouldn't. Milei said it best "China es un socio comercial muy interesante porque no exigen nada, solo que no los molesten." = "China is a very interesting partner because they do not demand anything other than letting them do business."

No

It's the root of their success. I don't expect them ever to change while the American empire exists (even in a diminished state).

I remember reading from a Xinhua article a long time ago (I think roughly a year or more) that China's non-interference policy isn't permanent, and that one day they will begin to strike back and truly stand up against the U.S. empire, and that time was approaching. But it probably won't be for years, at best.

This policy has earned them the trust of many political actors world wide, so I doubt they would change, as it could result in diplomatic disruptions in many countries. This could be used by the US in attempts to isolate the country. But only time will tell.