this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2025
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[โ€“] [email protected] 3 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

A basic precondition for change is reunification with Taiwan. Reunification with Taiwan means the first island chain has been breached and China is no longer encircled by sea. Once China is no longer encircled by land (via the BRI) nor by sea (via reunification with Taiwan), that's when China can start to make offensive plays.

[โ€“] [email protected] 2 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

I don't think offensive play is necessary, and as with the other "plays"/economics and tech, I think PRC leadership is showing a steady hand with the long game/goal towards completing peaceful unification without firing a single shot. The process of dedollarization and erosion of western hegemony towards multipolarity means they aren't in any rush, on the contrary, it would be foolish to do so. If anything, I think we (as observers) and obviously the Chinese should be on the lookout for false-flag attempts.