China has a very passive policy of non-interference, but will this change in the future? (lemmygrad.ml)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[-] [email protected] 18 points 4 months ago

A basic precondition for change is reunification with Taiwan. Reunification with Taiwan means the first island chain has been breached and China is no longer encircled by sea. Once China is no longer encircled by land (via the BRI) nor by sea (via reunification with Taiwan), that's when China can start to make offensive plays.

[-] [email protected] 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

I don't think offensive play is necessary, and as with the other "plays"/economics and tech, I think PRC leadership is showing a steady hand with the long game/goal towards completing peaceful unification without firing a single shot. The process of dedollarization and erosion of western hegemony towards multipolarity means they aren't in any rush, on the contrary, it would be foolish to do so. If anything, I think we (as observers) and obviously the Chinese should be on the lookout for false-flag attempts.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

Other analyst say the contrary, with demographic decline to come and econnomy slower. So they say reunification window is limited to maybe 10 years or something before it becomes harder. Not that I'm capable of saying which of you is right

[-] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

do you have any names of said analysts? this is the second time I've heard this "demographic decline" point* from non-lemmygrad users.

this point sounds dubious/bogus because "demographic decline" is vague enough phrasing that makes it seem like slowing population growth means actual net loss in population.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

I'll see if I can find my source back just in case we can get something more specific. From memory it was about China going back under 1 billion people over the next 50-100 years or something

[-] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

"National Economy – 10.Total Population Went down and Urbanization Rate Continued to Grow (31 December 2024)". www.stats.gov.cn. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC). 17 January 2025. Retrieved 17 January 2025.

net loss but natality increase in 2024

It seems like robust assertion to me. For the final analysist I'm no expert in chinese questions.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

Ok i've found something on one of my national media, 2023.

For context "lefigaro" is a right wing conservative french paper. It's interviewing PA Donnet.

Pierre-Antoine Donnet is a experimented journalist with significant knowledge and experience with China since ~1980 (he was not happy with the Tibet events around 1985 and was present physicaly here for the Agence France Presse, the primary main source of most mainstream french media - independant medias have their own investigations). He's been cited twice on mediapart (independant leftist journal very respected here) on the topic.

He says basically:

China population declined officially in 2022, and "it started before despite the official source" as part of the source of the problem
PIB growth lower than targets and historical values, as a symptome of vicious circle
Some talk about the CCP internal conflict

I guess he's the primary source, but I don't want to buy his book to give you a summary :D

this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2025

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