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this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2025
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A basic precondition for change is reunification with Taiwan. Reunification with Taiwan means the first island chain has been breached and China is no longer encircled by sea. Once China is no longer encircled by land (via the BRI) nor by sea (via reunification with Taiwan), that's when China can start to make offensive plays.
I don't think offensive play is necessary, and as with the other "plays"/economics and tech, I think PRC leadership is showing a steady hand with the long game/goal towards completing peaceful unification without firing a single shot. The process of dedollarization and erosion of western hegemony towards multipolarity means they aren't in any rush, on the contrary, it would be foolish to do so. If anything, I think we (as observers) and obviously the Chinese should be on the lookout for false-flag attempts.
Other analyst say the contrary, with demographic decline to come and econnomy slower. So they say reunification window is limited to maybe 10 years or something before it becomes harder. Not that I'm capable of saying which of you is right
do you have any names of said analysts? this is the second time I've heard this "demographic decline" point* from non-lemmygrad users.
I'll see if I can find my source back just in case we can get something more specific. From memory it was about China going back under 1 billion people over the next 50-100 years or something
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
It seems like robust assertion to me. For the final analysist I'm no expert in chinese questions.
Ok i've found something on one of my national media, 2023.
For context "lefigaro" is a right wing conservative french paper. It's interviewing PA Donnet.
Pierre-Antoine Donnet is a experimented journalist with significant knowledge and experience with China since ~1980 (he was not happy with the Tibet events around 1985 and was present physicaly here for the Agence France Presse, the primary main source of most mainstream french media - independant medias have their own investigations). He's been cited twice on mediapart (independant leftist journal very respected here) on the topic.
He says basically:
I guess he's the primary source, but I don't want to buy his book to give you a summary :D