this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2023
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edit: changed title from 'False Fukushima Fears' to 'Exaggerated Fukushima Fears', sacrificing my lovely alliteration as others have pointed out that it would be too much to say that the fears of radiation leakages are unfounded, but merely to say that this is the least bad option given previous precedent as cynesthesia has pointed out.

Image is of the large array of water storage tanks holding the tritium-contaminated water.

This week's preamble is very kindly provided by our beautiful poster @[email protected], with some light editing. In periods where not much of earth-shattering importance is happening in the news, I hope to do this more often!


In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear incident occurred. Since then, water has been used to cool radioactive waste and debris, which contaminates the water with radioactive isotopes. Currently, TEPCO, the Japanese energy company that is reponsible to Fukushima, is storing about 1.3 million m^3^ of contaminated water (equivalent to about 500 Olympic swimming pools for our American friends) in about 1000 tanks. Approximately 100,000 m3 of contaminated cooling water is generated per year to this day. TEPCO doesn't want to store escalating volumes of nuclear waste for decades until half-lives are spent. This would mean adding substantial storage capacity every year at increased cost and risk of tank spills.

The contaminated water includes heavier isotopes like caesium as well as hydrogen's isotope, tritum. Caesium is a big atom at 137 molar mass (we love our tremendous atoms, folks) while tritium is heavy hydrogen and has only a molar mass of 3 (pathetic, low energy). The TEPCO people are using water treatment to remove heavy isotopes from water, but not tritium. The large adult isotopes are easy to remove with treatment but tritium is incorporated into water, so it blends in with the others. The treated Fukushima water contains low levels of the big isotopes but still contains tritium.

Isotopes release radiation that damages the body's cells. The longer an individual molecule containing an isotope is in a body, the more likely it is that the isotope will go BRAZAP and release radiation that fucks up the cells. Bioaccumulation is a toxicology term for how certain contaminants can accumulate in the food cycle. For example, algae eat contaminants, then the algae is eaten by bugs, then bugs by fish, then fish by people. Isotopes that are bioaccumulative like our large adult son caesium are more hazardous. Tritium is not bioaccumulative because it is effectively part of water. Water cycles through bodies quickly - that's why you sweat and pee and get thirsty. spray-bottle

Fukushima water would be treated and then then mixed with seawater at a ratio of 1:800 before it is pumped 1km offshore. Each year approximately 166,000 m3 of treated water will be released, which will draw down the volume of contaminated water being stored over a few decades. Real-time stats associated with the release are found here. At the point of discharge, water contains about 207 Bq/L of radioactivity, about 16 times greater than the 10-15 Bq/L background level in the ocean overall. Drinking water guidelines for tritium radioactivity range from 1,000-10,000 Bq/L, if one were to drink seawater.

In wastewater treatment terms, this is a small amount of dilution in a very large body of water. It is unlikely to have any measurable impact per the terms of Western science. In the context of mother nature taking yet another one for the team and environmental distress, this sucks. In the context of making the best of a shitty situation, the Fukushima water release is peanuts compared to the many other environmental liabilities that are not addressed. For example, the Hanford Site is an example of a nuclear wastewater storage facility gone/going wrong in Oregon.


Ending note by 72: By far the biggest impact of the release of this water won't be its direct effects, but those on commerce and international relations. Almost half of Japanese aquatic exports go to China, comprising 8% of all Japanese firms shipping goods to China, and they have now been cut off due to their anger at Japan. Perhaps this reaction and the cancellation of imports was inevitable, as nuclear power and radiation in general is a poorly understood, frightening, and thus easily exploitable topic in every country. China is not the first country to use a misunderstanding of radiation risk to try and achieve a goal - Germany seems very pleased with itself - and they will not be the last.

In all: it is unequivocal that China is massively exaggerating the risks of this water's release. However, the bellicose rhetoric and actions of Japan, South Korea, and America are a much greater danger to the region, and none of the three seem to be in any hurry to try diplomacy instead of increasing military budgets and gearing up for war.


It's that time again - every two months I give myself a week off, to rest and recalibrate. Your regularly scheduled programming will resume next week.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 3) 50 comments
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[–] [email protected] 41 points 1 year ago (6 children)

that one news thread is making me want to die

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago

If it helps, it's really just 3-4 accounts posting the worst takea you've ever seen and getting ratioed hard.

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[–] [email protected] 41 points 1 year ago (6 children)

Regional elections are being held in Novorossiya. The current governors are all running for re-election. Polls suggests that United Russia will get around 80% of the vote.

The Kiev regime is angry about the elections and claim they are "illegal" and claims the elections shows why it is "impossible to hold any peace talks with Moscow until Russia withdraws all its troops from Ukrainian territory".

Ukrainian sources are claiming there are irregularities in the elections. The former pro-Ukrainian mayor of Donetsk is being quoted by Reuters for claiming that people from the city has told him that there are no voter lists and no candidate lists. He goes on to describe the election process like this:

They (Russian-installed officials) are going to walk from apartment to apartment, as they did before, talking to people. There are two soldiers standing nearby, carrying machine guns, and they tell the people that they must vote

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Belarus claims Poland violated its airspace. Probably won't cause anything, but it sure is fun having potentially WW3 starting events every couple months.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Argentina lifts wages, welfare in defiance of IMF austerity push

Argentina’s Economy Ministry has announced measures to improve government workers’ salaries and funnel money toward retirees and poorer families, defying an International Monetary Fund appeal earlier this month for the country to spend less.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who is running for president, outlined measures that include tax-breaks, higher pension payments, additional money for food programmes for families with kids, and low-interest credit lines. It also includes financing for export products, according to the announcement made on social media Sunday.

[...] The measures could put the government in conflict with the IMF, which approved a cash transfer to the government last week following extensive negotiations over its multi-billion dollar loans, after Argentina failed to meet programme targets amid a drought.

[...] A condition of the IMF’s aid to Fernández’s government was that Argentina step up expenditure controls by limiting public wages and pensions. The lender said in a statement last week that the government would implement a temporary increase in taxes on select goods and services to offset losses from drought-related exports.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I want to highlight this particular update by Mercouris yesterday but just the last 10 minutes where he talks about the G20 and a specific article from the Financial times. I know not everyone enjoys his style but this is IMO some very good commentary. If you're bothered by his speech(he is on the slower side) maybe try 1.5x speed.

I think this time he manages to give a very good overview of the current climate and I think it is worth watching. Just a few points

-FT/west dismayed over Xi not attending the G20

-India supposedly frustrated that no progress is made because when dealing with the US means everything is always tied to agreement on the Ukraine war issue.

-Western narrative tries to blame lack of progress on the Chinese but they also can't understand that the Chinese views are also supported by many other global south countries therefore(my take here) this is a nonstarter, even if China wasn't socialist there is no imperative for China or anyone else to agree with anything, in other simpler words the west always saw these meetings as a place to sign and give orders instead of a place for negotiation and diplomacy. [Insert Marxist theory about imperialism here if its not already obvious.]

-Xi doesn't bother going because the G20 is increasingly irrelevant.

-Important point that we can notice that the west wants to keep the appearance of normality in relationship with China, the US keeps sending some irrelevant dumb idiot official after the other, between Yelen and Blinken etc while also going off the rails and escalating e.g Taiwan issue and chip war. The CPC on the other hand already understands this.

-Also points out(not the first time, he said this since last year) that the Chinese already understand they can't make deals with the US because every time one western official goes and says one thing the US government then goes and does the opposite.

-What he didn't mention in all of this is this isn't the first time and at least it is still fresh in my memory the absolute chad Xi berating Canadian PM whatever his idiot name is on the last G20 over exactly the same issue i.e Western guy comes and says one thing then turns around and says another to the media.

-Finally he thinks Xi simply doesn't like Biden(specially after Biden calling him a dictator) and that is one of the main reasons as well. Personally I call this maybe his worst take here, but then again if I were Xi it would be extremely tough to not go on CGTN or something and tell Biden to draw a clock every single time I could so I can relate.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/testing-marx.html

Abstract:

Traditional Marxists believe that capital accumulation leads to income inequality and support for socialism, a perspective that was challenged by Revisionists. This column examines these competing claims using historical statistics and modern statistical techniques. The authors find that while capital accumulation intensified income inequality, it did not necessarily bolster support for socialism. Moreover, trade unions played a pivotal role in curbing income inequality. The findings highlight the role of historical, institutional, and technological factors in shaping capitalist trajectories, suggesting that a one-size-fits-all approach may be insufficient.

Quote:

What is more, the Revisionist strategy of strengthening the trade unions seems to have been a building block for the remarkable political success of the SPD before 1914.

Hmm, what happened after that?

rosa-shining

[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago (3 children)

lmao Marjorie Taylor Greene showing off Hunter Biden porn in Congress. She censored it though which is lame.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (5 children)

Pretty funny article in Finnish news where a guy read a new edition of a high school history book published in Russia, comparing it side by side with a history book given to Finnish students. Hold your Parenti quotes - I've received assurance that Finns are in fact immune to propaganda.

See what kind of propaganda Russia teaches high school students in a history book about NATO-Finland and Ukraine [translated]

wonder-who-thats-for

But anyway it's interesting nonetheless to see two sides of propaganda laid side by side. It's just funny to suggest that only one side engages in it.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (5 children)

I am taking a break from writing about the Russian economy, and want to mix in my posts with some Chinese economy as well. So I just spent the last few hours translating an episode of recent Wen Tiejun’s video podcast: The real estate crisis, “want to save you but it’s not easy” (Note: this talk was in a casual, colloquial conversation format, it actually makes it harder to translate into text, so keep in mind that I had to edit and reshuffle some sentences to make them readable. Also, this is a rough translation, so I apologize for not delivering a professionally translated article).

This is Part 1 of a three episode video podcasts about the real estate bubble in China. I will follow up on the next two when I have more time, so stay tuned.

Wen Tiejun: The real estate crisis, “want to save you but it’s not easy”

Today I would like to discuss with all of you about a hot issue, not just a current hot issue, but one that has been heated for several years now - and that is the problem of real estate crisis.

I have reported a few years back that the crisis in real estate is not merely a problem of the real estate sector, but one that has linked three bubbles together: the real estate bubble, the financial bubble and the debt bubble.

The real estate crisis in China

spoiler

Why is this a long-term central issue? To begin with, the regulatory policies that our country has continuously implemented over the last several years had enabled us to prevent a serious crisis that would have been comparable to the 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis. As we all know, the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the US, which then immediately morphed into the 2008 Wall Street financial tsunami, had triggered a crisis of globalization in which the world has increasingly trending towards de-globalization (disintegration of globalization, 全球化解体). This was a lesson well worth learning from.

As we entered 2017-2018, that is, before the US trade sanctions against China in 2018, the real estate over-supply/over-production crisis had already emerged in our country. However, because the economic growths in the other sectors were relatively weak at the time, the Chinese economy became increasingly reliant on the real estate sector to sustain its growth.

After 2018, despite that the over-supply of commercial real estate properties across various regions has become an imminent problem, the real estate developers, financial institutions and local governments continued to invest heavily in the real estate market over the 4-year period of real estate over-expansion under an already saturated condition - from the early emergence of over-supply in 2018 to the end of the government regulation in 2022.

.

The link between real estate and the financial bubble

spoiler

The extent of this real estate expansion is also tightly intertwined with the financial sector, which means that if the real estate bubble bursts, there is a very real possibility of the real estate crisis directly escalating into a full-fledged financial crisis. This is why I said that the series of policy instituted by the central government to regulate the real estate sector over this period, had to a certain extent prevented an American-style 2007-2008 financial crisis in China.

However, despite the fact that regulatory measures had dampened the risk of a crisis, this does not mean that characteristics and the various conditions for a crisis have gone away.

The problem that we are facing today remains a very serious one. Maybe you’ve seen on the internet a series of related statistics: first, the total volume of real estate, where there are about 800 million units in the urban area. If we average the number of urban population, one person owning a single unit should be adequate (note: this simply means that there are more properties in the urban area than there are people). And this still hasn’t taken into account the large amount of completed commercial properties in the rural area, which if we average over the last few years, would give an area of about 900 million square meters. And there is also a very large number of properties that weren’t sold and remained in the hands of the real estate developers i.e. those that they were unable to sell.

This is not merely an over-supply of residential properties, the underlying problem is financial in nature, in which large volume of investments had flowed into the real estate sector. We have seen from research findings that showed that more than 50% of household debt and more than 50% of corporate debt are mortgage debt. In other words, household and corporate loans have not been directed toward consumption and the real economy, but had overwhelmingly went into the real estate sector.

According to related research data, 60% of the household assets are in real estate. If there is a serious slide in the real estate sector, this would mean a corresponding slide in household assets as well - i.e. the value of household assets would significantly contract. In the same vein, many corporate assets are also real estate properties, and this similarly means that corporate asset value would slide downwards. By extension, this would mean that the market value of the stock market would shrink following the dive in asset value.

This will result in a series of crises - but this is still one of the more tangible aspects of the problem. On the other hand, maybe this is a less well known, an even more embarrassing problem: for a certain period of time now, the real estate developers that have accumulated huge amount of wealth have been moving their capital outward, to foreign countries, and this process of capital outflow would also intensify the risk of a real estate crisis. At the same time, this means that real estate companies would become insolvent, or in other words, this would break their financing chain. These real estate companies would then end up with a series of debt problems that they themselves could not possibly resolve.

Now, people are starting to request that the central government save the real estate developers.

Here, I will interject a little. Before we got the camera rolling, I was still discussing with our volunteer team on what to title this episode. I wanted to call it “Real estate crisis - want to save you but it’s not easy”.

A lot of people are now talking about the stimulating effects of the real estate sector on the economy. This is true - we know that real estate is deeply connected with dozens, if not hundreds of different sectors in the economy. Its weight in driving GDP growth supposedly reaches more than 20%. Of course, these are the calculations from various investment firms and financial institutions. We cannot comment on the accuracy of their assessments, because many of these financial institutions have deep ties with the real estate sector, and a large amount of their investments have gone into real estate. As such, emphasizing the “heavy” role of real estate in the national economy would help create a narrative that justifies the call for the central government to save the real estate sector, which, in other words, also means saving the financial sector.

Objectively speaking, when looking at the different numbers, there are also statistics that purports that, purely from the standpoint of real estate sector, its proportion is only 6-8% of the GDP - that is, if we don’t count every industry that is related to the real estate. If we include all sectors that have ties with the real estate, then the estimate is about 20+%.

From this perspective, people have said that if we want the economy to grow, we will have to reinvigorate real estate development. But is it really so?

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (8 children)

Man the Soviets botched Afghanistan. Not that the American didn't help.

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago

Zelensky Crank that souja boy

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Is it ok if I want to murder my neighbor? I'm not going to, but I want to. This idiot represents everything I despise. Today, though, I'm inching closer to losing it. He's got this dumb fucking riding lawnmower that he's somehow tweaked so it backfires every 30 seconds. My PTSD is at rage level right now. And maybe the worst part is he uses this dumb fucking riding mower to mow a patch of grass that's maybe 2000 ft² and that causes him to spend more time mowing it with the riding mower than if his lazy ass just used a push mower because he has so much trouble maneuvering the riding mower in such a small space. I think I need to go smoke some weed.

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago (4 children)

What does Jimmy buffetts death mean for the ukrainian counter offensive

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago (8 children)

The new leader of Gabon, Brice Clothaire Oligui Nguema, is the cousin of the president that was couped. So yeah uhh not sure what to think about that.

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (7 children)

okay when were people going to tell me THEY'RE GIVING THE JAPANESE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS BACK

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago

Zelensky replaced the defense minister

[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Russia is making gains near Kupiansk. It seems to me that the goal is to hold the line in the south and try and make a push for the Oskil-Donets confluence just a few miles northwest of Donetsk oblast. I think it would put them a good position to eventually take the rest of the Donetsk oblast next year. It doesn’t seem possible to make all those gains this month, but it’ll interesting to see if the Ukrainians in the south or the Russians in the north gain more land.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Weird shower thought.

When you apply Victoria 3's "authority" currency used to take actions by government to modern politics you get interesting results. Take covid for example, you could consider western societies expended all of their "authority" on this topic very quickly and were then unable to do anything about it, while socialist countries on the other hand managed to maintain their covid measures significantly longer because they produce more "authority" points. With this perspective you can see that producing more authority is actually a good thing, and castration of the state's ability to create authority points through "small gov" bullshit clearly only harms people.

This also I think explains why western countries became ideologically invested in propagandising China's measures against covid as being a bad thing despite the fact the west was engaging in exactly the same measures not long before. They need people to think of them as bad for maintaining them or else people might ask questions about why the other system was seemingly incapable of continuing with its measures.

Honestly a really good way to look at this problem and to explain how capitalist countries often become incapable of doing things because they have competing forces reducing their ability to use authority. The bourgeoisie for example being able to use media as a political weapon of influence and pressure is a very strong negative influence on the authority-output of capitalist states, resulting in their ability to take measures like this for significantly less time.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (8 children)

Initial reports of Ukrainians finally breaching the first line of defence! Don't get too excited though, it appears to only be a smaller infantry group and little armour.

Only 2 more lines to go!

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (4 children)

lmao Mike Pillow is actually set up as a redirect on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pillow

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (3 children)
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