[-] context@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago

you can have it all

my empire of dort

i will vote you up

i will make you sort (by new)

[-] context@hexbear.net 12 points 4 days ago

well, normally it takes a good 6 to 8 weeks for the processing to go through at quantico and dispatch some agents fedposting

7

i think it's a little broken

33

here's the link: https://fortune.com/2026/04/26/prediction-markets-insider-trading-illegal-kalshi-polymarket-robin-hanson-economist/

here's some selected text so you don't need to use it:

“You want them trading,” Hanson, a professor at George Mason University who helped develop the market scoring rule used by many prediction markets, said of insiders. “You want the most accurate prices. That’s pretty clear. The purpose of the market is to inform decisions.”

For a swath of consumers, particularly younger and male, prediction markets are an attractive arbitrage opportunity. For many policymakers, they’re a troubling scourge, literally equivalent to “gambling.”

“Many people are going to say prediction markets are exploiting people,” [Hanson] said. “But that’s what ordinary financial markets do in exactly the same way.”

Hanson thinks insider trading is “rampant” in traditional financial markets. When a company makes a major announcement, he notes, half the move happens before the news is public, and half of that is due to insider trading, with the rest driven by traders who spot it and pile in. The SEC prosecutes only a sliver of those trades.

His suggested test: any legislation that would bar government employees from trading on prediction markets should, by the same logic, bar them from talking to reporters.

“It’s the idea that certain elites should be in charge of key information aggregation, and ordinary people in these markets should just not be there,” Hanson said. “That’s sort of an elitist attitude that I just have to reject.”

“When you sit down at a poker table, you’re supposed to look around and find the fool,” he said. “If you don’t see the fool at the table, you should get up and go, because it’s you.”

In his view, individuals should recognize their odds and get out. But if they don’t, he doesn’t see that as more of a scandal than an artist starving to pursue their dreams, or one of his friends going into debt because he bought too many jet skis. The modern age allows for a lot of risk-taking, including letting young people choose whom to date, Hanson pointed out.

[-] context@hexbear.net 102 points 1 month ago

smuglord there won't be any way for trump to wriggle his way out of his war crimes tribunal when he puts his genocidal intent in writing like this

12
submitted 2 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net

i like my badposting like i like my unguents: topical

hexbear.net/post/8001576

39
submitted 2 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/bloomer@hexbear.net

complacency is futile

you've been warmed

23
submitted 2 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net
12
submitted 3 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net

and post! monkey-typewriter

10
submitted 4 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net

monkey-typewriter and post

[-] context@hexbear.net 97 points 5 months ago

i like the theory that sam altman's public statements are all in preparation for the inevitable investor lawsuits so he can point to everything he's said and declare in a court of law "no reasonable person would listen to a goddamn word i said"

6
submitted 6 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net

theory-gary

25
submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net

we simply replace the tandoori oven with the blockchain. thank you for ~~coming to my ted talk~~ reading my treatise

[-] context@hexbear.net 106 points 8 months ago

us-foreign-policy not political violence, for some reason

33
submitted 8 months ago by context@hexbear.net to c/badposting@hexbear.net

this is my first badpost, please let me know if it's bad enough

187
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by context@hexbear.net to c/electoralism@hexbear.net

put all of your election posting here so it doesn't bother anyone else!

from @CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net:

For Agitprop purposes, I’m asking comrades to help aggregate any and all effortpost responses, critiques, or general thoughts that you have seen or written pertaining to yesterday’s U.S. election that you think have standalone value for discussion either online or IRL.

I made a post for that purpose here, and ideally it can be used not only for general discussion, but as a reference for well thought out responses in discussions about the election to save all of us some brainpower.

No shitposts please, as we’d like to highlight some comrades’ actual effort in constructing responses or analysis, but humor is 100% welcome to help make your point!

60
submitted 2 years ago by context@hexbear.net to c/music@hexbear.net

why not?

[-] context@hexbear.net 107 points 2 years ago

i keep thinking about @happybadger's (probably tongue-in-cheek) theory that 9/11 was actually 4 unrelated boeing aircraft failures and the whole "terrorist" narrative was a coverup carried out with the cooperation of the bush administration to justify the invasions of afghanistan and iraq. 9/11 wasn't an inside job, it wasn't even an outside job. it was corporate negligence and malfeasance, a spectacular coincidence, and naked political opportunism combined into a mass hallucination with horrifying and deadly consequences, from which we've collectively yet to awaken.

obviously that's not true, of course. obviously. but when i read stories like this i do start to wonder...

[-] context@hexbear.net 101 points 2 years ago

i refuse to believe that this is anything but the highest concept and most dedicated of bits

my kids know me as this ape

two weeks ago myself and around 15 high ranking ape members

we wrote and delivered a notarized [emphasis mine] letter begging pacman to stop this nonsense at once [emphasis mine]

every note is perfect by itself but also builds on every note before it.

[-] context@hexbear.net 103 points 2 years ago

Beijing’s ability to manage real estate also comes into question after considering how poorly the authorities have managed things to date. Prior to 2020, Beijing actively encouraged residential real estate development, pushing local authorities to get involved and ensuring easy credit terms for both developers and homebuyers. Private builders and speculators responded actively, taking on debt and pursuing increasingly dubious projects so that even as China was meeting its housing needs, such development reached the astronomical level of some 30% of China’s economy. Then in 2020, Beijing abruptly removed all this support. Not surprisingly, the highly leveraged and extended developers began failing almost immediately.

xi-lib-tears oh no! not the speculators! it would be a real shame if a bunch of capitalists lost tons of money and all we got out of it was all this housing that now we can buy up for cheap!

[-] context@hexbear.net 93 points 2 years ago

Journalist. Zionist. Scottish.

she was born in glasgow.

[-] context@hexbear.net 95 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

last year i was talking to my cousin and they told a story about their great uncle who was a about 7 years old in 1920 for the election and his dad took him down to the polling station to see the results. this was back in the day, you understand, and you'd have to go look at a chalkboard to see the tally. anyway my great uncle twice removed or whatever he is, he looked at the tally and then looked down at the kid and said, "they didn't count my vote."

"how do you know, dad?"

"because it says there's 0 votes for eugene debs!"

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