52
submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by sadschmuck@hexbear.net to c/history@hexbear.net

No.

According to a claim circulating online, there is a CIA document or internal communication from the 1950s asserting that Joseph Stalin was not a dictator. The existence of this document is cited as proof either that Stalin was not a dictator after all, or at least that even the CIA didn't think he was. However, looking at the document in question, we see it is not a pronouncement of fact by the CIA whatsoever, but an anecdotal information report submitted to CIA information gatherers. As such, the document is a primary source representing the perspective of one anonymous informant, not the opinion of the CIA as a whole. Additionally, the document is contradicted by dozens of more reliable or detailed documents obtained or created by the CIA in the same period, indicating that they did not believe Stalin was non-dictatorial as claimed.

The transcript is in the comments.

top 50 comments
sorted by: hot top new old
[-] MLRL_Commie@hexbear.net 23 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

I never fully trusted this claim from this primary source, and actually trust it more now knowing the CIA never said it as an org but instead just one informant. If the CIA had said it, I'd be more afraid that they were only saying it to get an angle on the USSR by doing so. This makes it more credible.

I refuse absolutely the claim that this makes this useless or wrong. Some people not reading further to understand the context is a problem, but not our problem directly. Instead, we should just reply to the spreading of this document with more information. Anna Louise Strong (like @Cowbee@hexbear.net said) has tons of sources and good information about Stalin's real powers and usage of them. And Losurdo's "Stalin: History and Critique of a Black Legend" has tons of citations for this too, as well as being a good enough argument to cite itself. If anyone wants the citatinos, I would be willing to re-read relevant parts and find the pieces referenced. Its strength is the fact that it almost solely uses anti-Stalinists to make its claims.

[-] miz@hexbear.net 8 points 6 months ago

really loving the word [extremely Al Pacino voice] "citatinos" and I implore you not to fix the typo

[-] MLRL_Commie@hexbear.net 6 points 6 months ago

Hahahah I'll leave it! I'm usually typing on a computer without English autocorrect so I fuck it up easy, or English autocorrect on my phone fucks me up and I miss it. This is one of the better mistakes

[-] Erika3sis@hexbear.net 22 points 6 months ago

That exact claim played a significant role in pushing me away from anarchism and towards ML a few years ago. Despite being somewhat skeptical to the claim, I still ultimately bought into it without more consideration, and I must've repeated it to others on multiple occasions. This was very foolish and irresponsible of me, yet nobody stopped this shameful behavior, either.

[-] Cowbee@hexbear.net 21 points 6 months ago

The CIA document, as the video points out, is weak if used alone. However, there does exist good evidence of the soviet system of democracy. Defense of Stalin against Red Scare mythology is complex, and ultimately Stalin was neither a saint nor a monster, but a socialist head of state under extremely turbulent conditions.

I myself have used the CIA report, not because it absolves Stalin of any excess (which is to fictionalize Stalin into a saintly figure), but because of the line describing his leadership style as more of a "captain of a team," which is backed up by reporters like Anna Louise Strong's first hand experience.

Finally, it's important for any ML to recognize that no socialist project has been free of sin, no socialist leader without bloodless hands, including innocent blood. People often get caught up in historical debates more than they do material reality of today. We must know our history to know how best to learn from our mistakes, but too often Marxists debate which historical figure was morally superior, vs which was theoretically and practically correct.

Stalin was more correct than Trotsky regarding the issues they debated at the time, such as socialism in one country vs permanent revolution. Stalin had a better theoretical line regarding the peasantry, and ultimately did oversee the world's first Marxist state and navigated tumultuous waters. Trotsky did more than a fair amount to undermine socialism, and Trotskyist organizations have been more of an enemy to socialism than an ally, with few exceptions. Trotksy was sometimes correct, though, such as analyzing fascism. Neither were perfect saints nor devils, even if Stalin was better than Trotsky.

All in all, what's important is connecting theory with practice, learning as we go. If the strength of our ideology rests more on the morality of those that contributed to the creation and refinement of Marxism-Leninism than to the actual practical use of said ideology, then Marx would roll in his grave.

[-] sadschmuck@hexbear.net 6 points 6 months ago

Hopefully people watch the video and the claim does not continue to go unchallenged

[-] Erika3sis@hexbear.net 13 points 6 months ago

You'd probably have more success making an "effortpost" about it that's basically just a transcript of this video with a less ambiguous title and a few other minor changes.

[-] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 8 points 6 months ago

Yep tbh I'll never watch this video but an effort post I would read

[-] sadschmuck@hexbear.net 4 points 6 months ago

This is not a bad summary, at least in regards to the document in question, but not necessarily the part about evaluating primary sources:

According to a claim circulating online, there is a CIA document or internal communication from the 1950s asserting that Joseph Stalin was not a dictator. The existence of this document is cited as proof either that Stalin was not a dictator after all, or at least that even the CIA didn't think he was. However, looking at the document in question, we see it is not a pronouncement of fact by the CIA whatsoever, but an anecdotal information report submitted to CIA information gatherers. As such, the document is a primary source representing the perspective of one anonymous informant, not the opinion of the CIA as a whole. Additionally, the document is contradicted by dozens of more reliable or detailed documents obtained or created by the CIA in the same period, indicating that they did not believe Stalin was non-dictatorial as claimed.

[-] sadschmuck@hexbear.net 3 points 6 months ago

It's not enough that I found the video but I also have to sell it soviet-huff Just watch it you bunch of LIBs.

You'll learn to be more mindful of primary sources and try to evaluate them.

[-] purpleworm@hexbear.net 6 points 6 months ago

It was certainly foolish and irresponsible of us (I am also guilty of it), but the CIA conforming to the liberal view isn't all that surprising when they are working with a hypothesis that they didn't have all that much ability to falsify and didn't have information from the Soviet archives about, for example, Stalin being repeatedly outvoted on basic issues.

As I recall, here's another famous note "from the CIA" about Cuba, specifically how attempts to create broad opposition within Cuba to the communist regime have failed even in the extreme circumstances Cuba has faced for its whole existence, and the only remaining option (in so many words) is to use sanctions to just turn Cuba into a failed state. I now wonder what the provenance of that note is and if it reflects or conflicts with better sources . . .

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 16 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Trots wake up one day and be like "Today I will make a video attacking my own side's propaganda to help the capitalists." thonk

[-] Erika3sis@hexbear.net 14 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

I like what RedWizard had to say elsewhere in this thread.

One of the things that does make this item of agitprop so effective is that it takes a 'trusted source' in the minds of liberals and turns it on them. They have no real pre-programmed response to this kind of message. This, however, will begin to fail to be effective and rightfully paint those who parriot [sic] it as shallow agents peddeling [sic] in simple misinformation that they themselves cannot even identify. Sources like the ones presented in this video, which effectively state, "The CIA was stairing [sic] at a black box, unable to expose it's inner workings, and deriving its function purly [sic] from its form," could be more persuasive. It would need to be followed up, however, with more current Soviet archive research.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 12 points 6 months ago

I don't see why that should be done if not confronted with corrections and arguments. Pre-emptively turning a highly effective one line argument into a significantly less effective wall of text on the possibility that it might be refuted with this argument when I have never seen a single person counter it this way not even once in decades of using it seems like breaking your own kneecaps.

[-] Cowbee@hexbear.net 8 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Agreed, it's an imperfect source that can be used in addition to better sources at best. Doing good persuasion and agitprop requires a realistic and grounded view, not just dogmatically upholding the flattering and dogmatically dismissing the unflattering. The flattering can be twisted into hurting more than good, contextual but unflattering pieces in the right circumstances.

[-] sadschmuck@hexbear.net 6 points 6 months ago

Seems like bad agitprop to me

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 11 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Bad why? Because it might not be wholly truthful? The goal of propaganda is not to tell the truth but to achieve a goal. The goal of this particular propaganda is to help in creating more socialists by softening views of the USSR. This explanation against the propaganda has existed for decades and yet I have never seen libs make it, not once, not a single fucking time.

The propaganda achieves the goal of helping to create more communists. Therefore I will continue to use it. Especially when it is exceptionally effective. If that ever changes, then I will move on from it.

[-] purpleworm@hexbear.net 15 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Turns out there is no such thing as one person controlling a government unilaterally

Edit: welp, see below

[-] sadschmuck@hexbear.net 9 points 6 months ago

I don't think you've watched the video

load more comments (1 replies)
[-] RedWizard@hexbear.net 9 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

This video isn't saying that. The video is saying that this CIA document isn't evidence that "there is no such thing as one person controlling a government unilaterally" and that it is even an authoritative opinion from the CIA as an organization. Presenting it as such is easily disproven, and there is far more documentation of a higher level of authority within the CIA at the time, exposing that the CIA did in fact believe Stalin was a dictator.

It doesn't take a position on the nature of Stalin's level of power relative to the collective management of the Soviet Union. It is only pointing out how weak this document is as evidence of the claim that "even the CIA didn't believe Stalin was a dictator." Then effectively calls on the viewer to act and discard this document as a vehicle for agitprop and find new material.

[-] purpleworm@hexbear.net 4 points 6 months ago

Fair enough

[-] RedWizard@hexbear.net 13 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

[This video is 14min long, 7min long at 2x speed naturally, and easy to listen to at 2x speed]

All this to say, please stop using the CIA report as some sort of proof that Stalin wasn't a dictator. This is an unevaluated antidotal report from one unnamed source, not a statement of fact by the CIA. Even if that was legitimately what the 1950s CIA as a whole believed, which they didn't, that wouldn't sufficiently prove the claim anyway. This report is not the proof you think it is, and the fact that it's been touted as conclusive for so long despite the obvious shortcomings would say more about current research standards than any of the actual realities of Stalin's regime. [emphasis mine]

This is a good video, and this closing statement is a good summarization of why. One of the things that does make this item of agitprop so effective is that it takes a 'trusted source' in the minds of liberals and turns it on them. They have no real pre-programmed response to this kind of message. This, however, will begin to fail to be effective and rightfully paint those who parriot it as shallow agents peddeling in simple misinformation that they themselves cannot even identify. Sources like the ones presented in this video, which effectively state, "The CIA was stairing at a black box, unable to expose it's inner workings, and deriving its function purly from its form," could be more persuasive. It would need to be followed up, however, with more current Soviet archive research.

This report, if anything, is a crutch that should be retired in favor of other more irrefutable documentation.

load more comments (1 replies)
[-] miz@hexbear.net 11 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

jagoff

all states are class dictatorships. during the time this report was written the US was basically an apartheid state

[-] spectre@hexbear.net 10 points 6 months ago

Please stop missing the point of the post comrades.

"Stalin wasn't a dictator! Even the CIA didn't think so!"

is not good propaganda. That's all the video is saying. We shouldn't care what the CIA thinks anyway, and we can discuss whether Stalin actually was or was not a "dictator" in another post.

load more comments (1 replies)
[-] CrookedSerpent@hexbear.net 8 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Making up a guy, and owning him in the free marketplace of ideas 😎 Good video tho ig, thanks.

[-] RedDawn@hexbear.net 7 points 6 months ago

Idk how much the CIA’s analyses can be relied on regardless of what they said about him.

Does the CIA think Maduro is a dictator?

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 8 points 6 months ago

Does the CIA think Maduro is a dictator?

Publicly? Or internally?

Same situation as Stalin. Public propaganda does not reflect the internal understanding of the organisation.

load more comments (2 replies)
[-] Tabitha@hexbear.net 5 points 6 months ago

I guess we'll have to wait until 2070 to know for sure

[-] kleeon@hexbear.net 5 points 6 months ago

Pretty interesting channel

[-] sadschmuck@hexbear.net 5 points 6 months ago
[-] kleeon@hexbear.net 4 points 6 months ago

I actually watched their abbey road video a while ago. Turns out this person is also a big soviet history nerd lol

[-] RedWizard@hexbear.net 5 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Because some expressed not being interested in watching this video, here is the transcript. Youtube transcripts have limited, if any, punctuation, so I ran it through DeepSeek to add punctuation and rewatched the video while reading along to confirm its accuracy.


If you've searched the web for info on Stalin, you may have heard the claim that there is a CIA document concluding that Stalin wasn't a dictator—that even they had to admit it. This document is touted as proof either that he wasn't a dictator, or at least that even the CIA didn't believe he was, despite the propaganda they were spewing about him.

Now, I won't be discussing here if Stalin was or wasn't a dictator, or how Soviet leadership actually worked; that'll be a separate video, if anything. Today, I just want to look at this one document and see if it truly serves as the compelling evidence that people think it does. In so doing, we'll also see a bit of an example of how to evaluate a source in general.

So, here is the document in question. It's a two-page information report from 1955 and released to the public in 2008, as can be seen here on cia.gov. Before we analyze the text itself, though, let's first ask ourselves some questions to determine its basis as a source, as the background and context behind a document are in many ways just as important for evaluating it appropriately.

The first question we might ask is: who is behind this document? As in, who is the author? Probably what bugs me the most when people talk about this document is they say "the CIA," as in "the CIA said," "the CIA concluded," "the CIA admitted." But that isn't the case at all. For one, the CIA collects information reports from thousands of sources, agents, and informants of varying levels of veracity and credibility all the time. Maybe we could say "the CIA" metonymically if we're talking about an organization-wide statement, policy, or official ruling by, say, the upper leadership. A good start would be a memorandum, or beyond that, an official report, which will usually note who prepared it. However, this is not the case of our document. It's specifically an "information report," meaning it's an input, not an output. The text is labeled "unevaluated information," which is what the CIA labels its raw or unfinished information that it collects at the beginning of the intelligence cycle, meaning the text has not been verified for its accuracy, nor is it necessarily representative of the agency's opinion. These are quote "comments from an anonymous source" who presumably spoke these words or gave them to the CIA to be recorded, meaning we simply don't know who is behind this. Was it some low-level bureaucrat? Foreign observer? How well did they know the Soviet Union? Were they a Soviet defector? In any case, the document definitely needs to be contextualized as the comments or opinions of one particular person at a particular place and time, not some declarative, definitive statement by the CIA. This is not an official finding; it's not even an internal memo; it's an anecdotal report given to CIA information gatherers.

Plus, the Soviet Union was notoriously a hard target for the CIA, with scarcely any reliable sources on the ground. As one scholar has put it, "Neither the CIA nor US military intelligence was able to recruit a single agent with access to the innermost secrets of the Kremlin or the Soviet High Command." Point being, we're almost certainly working with hearsay from someone without direct knowledge of the inner workings of the Soviet government. They might not even be a Soviet citizen. And what's more, we lack the ability to judge fully how credible, biased, experienced, or believable this source was as well. This alone more or less debunks the argument given, but let's continue.

The second thing we normally ask is: why are they saying what they're saying? What was their purpose in writing this info, and how did they come to know it? Unfortunately, we again don't have much to go off of for that either. The comment in question is basically just a paragraph, and so the source doesn't justify or explain why they believe this, which means even if there was a factual claim in here, this wouldn't be a great source for it.

Also, on the subject of purpose, many people, beginning from the erroneous conclusion that this is an official memo, will assume they had no reason to lie about their enemies behind closed doors. But for one, as already said, this is an input to the CIA, and so we have to think about the source's purpose in reporting it to them. Did they have strategic or personal motivations? Were they just plain incorrect or deliberately disinformative? For the same reason as before, we can't really answer that. But from the context we do have, their purpose seems to be to inform on the current internal stability in the country, meaning this wasn't really intended to be used as a statement on Stalin's reign.

But second, we can also look for evidence intertextually as well. If it was true that the CIA believed or knew deep down that Stalin wasn't really a dictator, why would that need to be said to the CIA in a report of theirs? As in, what structural purpose would this document serve in enabling their work in that regard? Remember, we're looking at their paperwork here. Such documents don't usually outright say, "Let's lie about this or that"; the documents themselves are written from the perspective of believing, or wanting people to believe in, the lie. So we would expect to find more indirect insinuations or reactions to the belief, or just any documentation of actions taken as if he wasn't a dictator, not a literal statement saying he isn't.

Anyway, these are things to consider when evaluating a source, which might not rule out the information from being true, but at the least tell you how much stock you should put into believing a claim by itself. In our case, it's clear that this is a weak source; it has inexact origins and is being misconstrued to imply something it was never really meant to imply.

But while we're here, let's at least evaluate the text itself and see if it actually says anything significant. It begins:

"Even in Stalin's time there was Collective leadership. The Western idea of a dictator within the Communist setup is exaggerated. Misunderstandings on that subject are caused by lack of comprehension of the real nature and organization of the Communist Party structure."

So we start off with a claim that the Western idea is exaggerated, perhaps because it doesn't take into account collective leadership, which was a Soviet ideal that, in theory, leadership decisions should be made as a group. Thus far, though, this isn't necessarily saying there was no dictatorship at all, but it's at least disagreeing with the Western idea of it.

It continues:

"Stalin, although holding wide powers, was merely the captain of a team, and it seems obvious that Khrushchev will be the new captain. However, it does not appear that any of the present leaders will rise to the stature of Lenin and Stalin, so that it will be safer to assume that developments in Moscow will be along the lines of what is called Collective leadership, unless Western policies force the Soviets to streamline their power organization."

So from this we learn that some collective leadership was always there, with Lenin and Stalin being strong leaders who coincided with less collective leadership, and future leaders probably would allow more. The assumption, though, is that it will now grow post-Stalin.

And finally:

"The present situation is the most favorable from the point of view of upsetting the Communist dictatorship since the death of Stalin."

So, taken together, the source seems to believe there is a dictatorship in the Soviet Union, that Stalin was the captain, but that his absolute power or singularity is often exaggerated. As it so happens, this understanding is closer to the conclusion that many modern scholars have arrived at: that Stalin wasn't a despot in the sense of having absolute, total power, but he was still dictatorial in the sense of having near-absolute power at the head of a small, unaccountable group of people. So our claim isn't exactly earth-shattering.

But to get back to the point, even if this document was 100% factual, it doesn't exactly say the Soviet government was non-dictatorial. It definitely doesn't say it was democratic, had checks and balances, or anything like that. There's no indication of Stalin being constrained by the people, for example. It's at best only saying, in the opinion of the source at least, there was more of an oligarchic dictatorship rather than a one-man dictatorship.

Now, as already noted, the first two lines are often cited without explaining the full context, or indeed even looking at the rest of the page. But more importantly, what about cherry-picking of this document as a whole compared to others? From a cursory glance, there are literally dozens of CIA documents calling Stalin a dictator created around the same time, and many of these actually have better provenance or detail.

For example, in another information report made the year prior, with the exact same clearance level and apparent manner of obtainment, we read about "the cult of Stalin," "the visible evils of despotism," and "the struggle to establish a new dictator." It continues: "Stalin was a fanatic, an all-powerful dictator with a persecution complex and a mania for greatness." So on what grounds is our information report to be believed, but this other, equally as valid information report is to be ignored?

[continued below]

[-] purpleworm@hexbear.net 9 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

So, taken together, the source seems to believe there is a dictatorship in the Soviet Union, that Stalin was the captain, but that his absolute power or singularity is often exaggerated. As it so happens, this understanding is closer to the conclusion that many modern scholars have arrived at: that Stalin wasn't a despot in the sense of having absolute, total power, but he was still dictatorial in the sense of having near-absolute power at the head of a small, unaccountable group of people. So our claim isn't exactly earth-shattering.

But to get back to the point, even if this document was 100% factual, it doesn't exactly say the Soviet government was non-dictatorial. It definitely doesn't say it was democratic, had checks and balances, or anything like that. There's no indication of Stalin being constrained by the people, for example. It's at best only saying, in the opinion of the source at least, there was more of an oligarchic dictatorship rather than a one-man dictatorship.

I find it really weird that they have done such a good job thinking critically to disabuse us of the validity of this source but then do such a bad job interpreting its contents. "Wide powers" does not mean "near-absolute" power, even the President of the US has "wide powers" and he obviously is not a dictator (though we can make token remarks about how the current one is trying with the expansion of the police state, etc.) Then this is backpedaled to calling the SU a bureaucracy, which I actually agree with, but it doesn't really reconcile these views, so it's like a preemptive motte-and-bailey.

load more comments (1 replies)
[-] RedWizard@hexbear.net 4 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Or what about this one from 1947, stating that "ever greater concentration of power in the hands of Stalin himself is taking place. During the war he was already, to all intents and purposes, a dictator with unlimited powers, but at that time this was considered as a temporary state of affairs. It has now been made permanent. The USSR has now entered upon a period of personal dictatorship." This report, by the way, is also just far more detailed, with dozens of points explaining the argument.

But then we move beyond the realm of just information reports—meaning beyond just the raw intelligence—and look at the processed memorandums, briefs, and research reports prepared by the CIA from these inputs. For example, in a staff discussion just after Stalin's death, everyone seems to agree that he was a personal dictator. They talk about if "the enormous power concentrated in Stalin personally could be transferred to a successor or successors." One person "[REDACTED] began by stating flatly that any concept of solidarity or cooperative committee relations among the men in the top ruling group was utter nonsense," said he "[REDACTED] believed that modern totalitarianism inevitably removedd into personal dictatorship. Stalin had become more and more like Hitler."

Meanwhile, in another analysis, "Stalinism is defined as the theory and practice connected with Stalin's personal dictatorship, one-man rule." In the analysis of Khrushchev's secret speech, we read: "The Soviet leadership has recently reaffirmed that the Soviet people are irrevocably subordinated to authoritarian one-party dictatorship, iron discipline, individual leadership—in spite of the now proven fact that the party could not protect the people, the Soviet state, or itself against a Stalin."

And okay, one more: "Pure collectivity—the equal sharing of power and authority by a number of men—has never existed in the USSR. Stalin had succeeded in establishing an almost absolute dictatorship." And on and on they go.

So in sum, our document is already in the least credible category of reports and is contradicted by other, more detailed reports of the same type. But on top of that, it's contradicted in the more reliable categories repeatedly. Perhaps most revealing of all, none of these documents imply the CIA knew or acted as if Stalin wasn't a dictator. I could highlight every last instance of them literally saying the words "dictator," but what's more important is how they report on him and Soviet politics in general with the assumption that the system works dictatorially. For example, there's no talk of "elections are underway; we have to try to influence the results," or "we're not sure who the people will support," or "Stalin be outvoted." Here, they're talking about how the supreme leader acts and what they expect he personally will do.

Now, in the end, any such document at best tells us what the CIA thought about the Soviet Union, not necessarily what it actually was. They may have their reasons, but they're not infallible either. The CIA certainly had a lot of resources behind it and motivation to understand their enemy, but they were still an outside observer trying to peek across the Iron Curtain. To quote one analysis: "The CIA and Western intelligence in general faced an extremely difficult task in the early years of the Cold War, particularly in attempting to gain insights into the Soviet leadership, its deliberations, and what they intended to do. Joseph Stalin's Soviet Union was in several, if not most, respects a secret state."

So the CIA shouldn't be misconstrued as this authoritative, all-knowing source. It would be folly to take one comment in any such report as some smoking gun proving the fact, and that goes both for and against Stalin being a dictator. Such an assertion will be proven not by an off-hand CIA remark, but by examining the actual material reality on the ground and the much more revealing, reliable sources that the '50s CIA didn't have access to—namely, the Soviet government's own internal documents. So it's no wonder historians spend more time in the Soviet archives than on cia.gov.

All this to say: please stop using this CIA report as some sort of proof that Stalin wasn't a dictator. This is an unevaluated, anecdotal report from one unnamed source, not a statement of fact by the CIA. Even if that was legitimately what the 1950s CIA as a whole believed—which they didn't—that wouldn't sufficiently prove the claim anyway. This report is not the proof you think it is, and the fact that it's been touted as conclusive for so long despite the obvious shortcomings would say more about current research standards than any of the actual realities of Stalin's regime.

[-] RedWizard@hexbear.net 4 points 6 months ago

Footnotes

  1. "Comments on the Change in Soviet Leadership," 2 March 1955, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp80-00810a006000360009-0.

  2. The "Intelligence Cycle", and the obtainment of raw, human intelligence ("HUMINT") is discussed in the following: Mariusz Antoni Kamiński, "Intelligence Sources in the Process of Collection of Information by the U.S. Intelligence Community," Security Dimensions, no. 32 (2019): 82--105 (esp. 82--90); John Hollister Hedley, "The Challenges of Intelligence Analysis," in Strategic Intelligence, ed. Loch K. Johnson, vol. 1 (Westport: Praeger Security International, 2007), 123--38.

  3. "The Soviet Party Leadership," 3 April 1972, page 1, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130045-3.pdf.

  4. This can be confirmed by looking at CIA documents which discuss their internal procedures and document types, such as: "Dissemination of CIA Reports," https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-04718A000400090035-2.pdf; "Dissemination of CIA Unevaluated Information Reports," https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-04718A002700080033-0.pdf; "Dissemination of Intelligence," 1 January 1954, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-03362A000700030001-8.pdf; for background on the types of intelligence collected by the CIA and its processing into "finished intelligence", see: John Hollister Hedley, "Challenges of Intelligence Analysis," 125--127.

  5. Fischer clarifies that HUMINT may include reporting from clandestine agents, as well as "overt reporting from foreign intelligence officers, diplomats, and attachés based on personal observations and professional contacts... allied foreign (''liaison'') services...émigrés and defectors from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, as well as open sources such as newspapers, radio and television broadcasts, and official government statements." Benjamin B. Fischer, "'We May Not Always Be Right, but We're Never Wong': US Intelligence Assessments of the Soviet Union, 1972--91," in The Image of the Enemy: Intelligence Analysis of Adversaries Since 1945, ed. Paul Maddrell (Washington: Georgetown University Press, 2015), 96.

  6. This will be explored in more detail in a dedicated video, but an introduction to this argument can be found in: Sheila Fitzpatrick, On Stalin's Team: The Years of Living Dangerously in Soviet Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2015); E. A. Rees, ed., The Nature of Stalin's Dictatorship: The Politburo, 1924--1953 (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), esp. chapters 1--3. 7.

  7. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80S01540R003100120009-1.pdf

  8. "Inner Antagonisms in the Leadership of the All-Russian Communist Party and Stalin's New Government," 18 August 1947, page 1, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80-00809A000500830068-3.pdf.

  9. More specifically, a meeting of specialists (including members of the Board of National Estimates, its staff, and other Soviet consultants) was held after Stalin's death to discuss the Soviet power structure, and to determine if Stalin's death was likely to destabilize the Eastern Bloc or not, and the results of this meeting were then summarized in a memorandum produced for CIA leadership. Whether or not the Soviet Union or Eastern Bloc would be destabilized by changes in Soviet leadership or its decisions is a reoccuring theme throughout all the documents, which makes sense considering the CIA was primarily tasked with analyzing Soviet policy for the purposes of informing American response.
    "Meeting of Consultants," 25 April 1953, pages 1--7, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80B01676R004000050088-9.pdf.

  10. "Titoism and Soviet Communism: An Analysis and Comparison of Theory and Practice, October 1957, page 17, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80T00246A073800530001-4.pdf.

  11. "Materials for Exploitation of Soviet Sensitivities Revealed by the 30 June CPSU Resolution and Other Soviet Statements," July 1956, page 17, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-02771R000200300001-3.pdf.

  12. "The Soviet Leadership: Toward a New Configuration?" 7 November 1972, page 2, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120025-5.pdf.

  13. As the rest of the memorandum concludes, Rosefielde wasn't entirely correct in his criticism and lacked full understanding of the CIA's internal processes, but this is still an interesting example of the CIA being quite off-base:
    "Comments on 'Why the CIA's Estimate of Soviet Defense Procurement Was Off by 200%: The Economic Consequences of Quality Change' by Steven Rosefielde," 1 January 1977, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80M00165A002400080004-7.pdf.
    This memorandum also accords with the conclusion made by Moskoff in 1981, based on the unclassified information up to that point, which was that the CIA was generally competent and skilled in analyzing hard facts, such as economic statistics, but was perhaps too pessimistic in its new predictions. Although this article is interesting given what was just around the corner: William Moskoff, "CIA Publications on the Soviet Economy," Slavic Review 40, no. 2 (1981): 269--72; Fischer notes that American intelligence agencies were successful in monitoring Soviet weapons systems, and pioneered estimative intelligence, but had a frequent problem of poor quality intelligence especially in regards to Soviet decisionmaking; Benjamin B. Fischer, "'US Intelligence Assessments," 94--95.

  14. Huw Dylan, David V. Gioe, and Michael S. Goodman, The CIA and the Pursuit of Security: History, Documents and Contexts (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2020), 64.

Video/Film Sources

load more comments (1 replies)
load more comments
view more: next ›
this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2025
52 points (98.1% liked)

History

24011 readers
109 users here now

Welcome to c/history! History is written by the posters.

c/history is a comm for discussion about history so feel free to talk and post about articles, books, videos, events or historical figures you find interesting

Please read the Hexbear Code of Conduct and remember...we're all comrades here.

Do not post reactionary or imperialist takes (criticism is fine, but don't pull nonsense from whatever chud author is out there).

When sharing historical facts, remember to provide credible souces or citations.

Historical Disinformation will be removed

founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS