Image is of smoke rising after Iranian missiles impact a US military site in Bahrain.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
After a few weeks of both diplomatic and military manuevering - mostly over Iranian control of Hormuz - we have hit the hottest phase of military exchanges since at least the MoU period began. The US has generally focussed on striking southern Iran, although they have also sporadically hit transportation infrastructure elsewhere, which was repaired in less than 24 hours. Meanwhile, Iran has struck a wide range of targets, with an interesting focus on Jordan, but has, up to the time of me writing this, so far relented on striking the Zionist entity. The US and Iran have had little periods of mutual military strikes during the "ceasefire" before, and so it's hard to tell for sure whether this yet another temporary spat or if it represents a full return to the pre-ceasefire conflict.
A complicating factor in this conflict is that Ansarallah has become increasingly active, and seems eager to start to break the siege it has been put under by threatening to attack Saudi Arabia and Saudi-aligned forces. This has put Iran in a somewhat awkward spot. On the one hand, it has greatly helped Ansarallah resist foreign attackers and has even recently sent civilian airplanes into Sana'a to begin to break the siege. On the other hand, Iran has, with China's help, generally desired to improve its relationship with the Saudis over the years. While in this latest war there have been a major dispute between them over whether Iran is "allowed" to strike US military infrastructure located in Saudi Arabia, the Saudis strike me as considerably less anti-Iran as the UAE, let alone the Zionists, and did send a delegation to Khamenei's funeral. I guess we'll just have to see what happens next, but I strongly suspect that Iran is going to help Yemen over the Saudis.
And finally, Lindsay Graham has died of a sudden heart attack a suspiciously short time after visiting Ukraine. He was a true enemy of civilian populations all the way to the end of his life, and he seemed to particularly despise children. He advocated for using nukes against Gaza and the total annihilation of anybody and everybody who had even the meekest criticism of Zionism. If God (and, more pertinently in this case, Satan) does exist, I hope Graham is extended the exact same level of courtesy and respect in the afterlife that Graham extended to all Palestinians.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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news
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IRGC;
Honestly, at this point, we kinda have to stop cutting the tanker crews any slack. We're at, what, "fool me a dozen times, what the fuck am I even doing" by now?
long long maaaaaaaan
("Operation Freedom"
started on May 4, so we're counting the ones since then)
I can empathize that being stuck in the middle of the sea, far away from friends and family, can be stressful and lead one to making decisions out of desperation, but how many ships have to get hit in front of you before any lessons are learned? When you get struck, aside from the risk of dying, you're likely to end up stuck in the strait even longer due to the damage! What are the Iranians supposed to do, start putting heads on spikes or gibbeting people across the strait, medieval-style?
The Iranian route was open for a decent length of time, hundreds of ships transited it - why didn't you go then? (admittedly, there are thousands in the strait, and there's probably some plain old logistical limitations to how many ships the Iranians could process a day, but still, a lot of the ships that are now trying to flee are probably ones that didn't even try to transit back then since they didn't want to pay up).
This was supposed to be a joke
but apparently tanker captains are actually willing to participate in the "unironically doing the kind of shit that anti-communists think the Soviets were doing in WW2" scheme
Tanker crews do not make the decision to go or not go. Their employers do. That's why they keep risking it, the people making the decision are in board rooms not the bridge of the vessel
edit: it's common practice to keep crew passports from them as well. These crews are barely above hostages in this situation, and their employers hold the keys.
Is this the first time its been directly said to be mined?
AFAIK it is.
Not convinced they actually have mined it. I think it's just propaganda they're belatedly stating at this point. US took out their navy pretty early and if they'd mined it before now they would have said something about it being mined before now because it only benefits them to cause that fear to encourage ships not to hit those mines and to use their preferred route and there would be really zero downsides to admitting it as part of your goal of controlling the strait and ensuring people abide by your routes. Western press repeatedly asserted they mined it at various points but Iran never said anything and west didn't seem concerned by mines given its operation of the Omani route and trying to sail warships through at one point. Not impossible just seems highly improbable as I don't think the Iranians have had the capability of dispersing naval mines (which are quite big and heavy compared to say a land mine meant for a tank) for months now. Additionally mines don't discriminate and they didn't want to interfere with their own traffic and Chinese traffic most likely.
Most likely they struck these ships with drones or missiles. If they can continue to do that very reliably day and night (open IF at this point) it's nearly as good as mining it. Minus the fact that with mining the US doesn't have these silly ideas of taking out shore sensors/radar and launch sites and securing the strait and the whole mines generally being more destructive and cheaper than the types of larger long-range missiles you need to take out a ship instead of just putting a small hole in it.
I mean there are a number of implications.
If Iran shoots shaheds, they can impose and remove insurance risks at will.
If they mine the straight then those risks are permanent without Iran going back and demining themselves at cost, or accepting a tactical/propaganda defeat by allowing an enemy to do it.
Since shaheds have been fairly sufficient and imposing risks and preventing maritime traffic, the more extreme strategem of mining the strait doesn't appear necessary or desirable from an Iranian standpoint.
However, Iran could decide to selectively mine the strait. Making their own side completely clear, and mining the Omani side. This allows them to mine the strait, while leaving the option of opening up the route (along their side) at their own convenience.
Iran also has EW ways of blocking the strait by jamming the GPS in the strait. They have not done done this in 2026. They did appear to do it in 2025. This also gives Iran full control and allows them to effectively turn on/off the strait.
The US bombed Iranian mining ships on the surface, and they showed footage of this.
However Iran has tunnels for their ships as well.
I present all of the information above to establish that I strongly believe tjat Iran is holding the mining card.
they should have done this immediately, and second best time is now
Agreed. Many people were saying it before the war and in the early days of the war. How mining everything but the narrow area next to their own islands would enable them to police traffic more effectively by forcing it all close to Iran.
:kelly: Mind the gap