The fundamental problem here (besides assuming people are being honest about how many times they’ve voted in recent elections) is that the nature of the most recent elections skews the results. 2018 (Trump midterm), 2020 (get the dang Cheeto out plus COVID backlash) and 2022 (Dobbs backlash) were all big democrat turnout years whereas the MAGA crowd were only super activated by 2020 with Trump on the ballot, 2022 to a lesser extent with Let’s Go Brandon but not bringing out the Trump-only voters.