this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2024
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Image is of Brazilian chuds storming the National Congress building in opposition to Lula winning the election, on January 8th, 2023, in their remarkably even shittier version of the January 6th events in America.


Bolsonaro, who is in the tragic category of pro-US South American leaders who are so awful and uncharismatic that even they can't get the US to help them overthrow a democratically elected left-ish government, has recently been facing that most elusive of things in this current world order: consequences for his actions. Bolsonaro and his friends have been under investigation by the police, and his passport has now been seized, meaning he is unable to leave the country. Alongside the man himself, the leader of the Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, has been caught up in searches and investigations. Brazilian Army Colonel Bernardo Correa Neto, a former aide to Bolsonaro, was very recently arrested upon his return to Brazil from the US, as well as another colonel.

From the Hexbear South American correspondent (a position I just made up), @[email protected]:

Lol, they are really fucked. Iirc, this is a municipal election year in Brazil, Bolsonaro can't campaign publicly, he can't promote his candidates. The leader of his party is currently in prison. And even if he is released from prison, they are forbidden to communicate with each other. The high-ranking members of the Liberal Party are pretty much fucked because they can't communicate with each other and getting support from Bolsonaro could be very bad, as left-wing candidates will exploit the fact that Bolsonaro will probably be imprisoned for planning a coup.

The FBI seems to have concluded its investigation into Bolsonaro's money laundering scheme in the US and handed over its findings to the Brazilian Federal Police, I don't think Bolsonaro can even go to the US anymore, or any other country. And it could get even funnier, there is a very small chance of the Liberal Party being banned and all its seats in congress and the senate being transferred to other politicians, many of whom, even if they are conservative, will be much more favorable to Lula's social and economic reforms, as it has been proven that Bolsonaro used the party to finance the coup.


The Country of the Week is Brazil! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 49 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Palestinian Factions To Seek Reconciliation in Russian Meeting

Russia has always supported the Palestinian aspiration to create an independent state within the borders prior to the 1967 Six-Day War.

On Friday, Russia announced a reconciliation meeting in Moscow between the main Palestinian factions, from the secular Fatah party to the Islamist movement Hamas.

"We have invited all Palestinian representatives, all political forces... There will be 12 to 14 organizations," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said, adding that the meeting will take place between February 29 and March 1-2.

Bogdanov emphasized that Moscow has sent invitations to groups that are part of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), but also to others such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad movement.

He stressed that the aim of these consultations is to pave the way for Palestinians to unite politically, noting that for Moscow, the PLO remains "the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."

Representing Hamas will be its political bureau member, Musa Abu Marzouq, announced Abdel Hafiz Nofal, Palestinian ambassador to Moscow. Fatah will be represented by Azzam al-Ahmad, a member of the PLO executive committee.

The Islamic Jihad movement also accepted the invitation to participate in the intra-Palestinian consultations. The President of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), Mahmoud Abbas, urged Hamas this week to "quickly complete" an agreement to exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners to prevent "the evils of another catastrophe" in Gaza and a massive displacement of Palestinians similar to that of 1948.

In the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza - the second longest in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 1948 - nearly two million Palestinians in the Strip have been forced to evacuate their homes as the Israeli offensive advanced in response to the brutal attack by the Islamist movement on October 7 against its territory.

Russia has been waiting for a visit to Moscow by Abbas, whose influence in the mediation process between Israel and Hamas is almost nil, as it does not act as an interlocutor nor has direct control over Gaza, where Hamas ousted the PNA from power in 2007.

Weeks ago, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov had expressed hope of bringing together representatives of the main Palestinian organizations in Moscow soon to overcome their divisions.

Similar reconciliation consultations took place in 2019 and 2017, when Fatah and Hamas demanded that Abbas form a national unity government.

Russia has always supported the Palestinian aspiration to create an independent state within the borders prior to the 1967 Six-Day War, with its capital in East Jerusalem and in accordance with UN resolutions.

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[–] [email protected] 49 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Hezbollah just fired a very deadly missile/rocket barrage toward Safed & Meron.

According to Zionist sources, there are ar least 2 deaths and a dozen wounded. There are reports of a “difficult” event at the IOF Northern Command HQ that was targeted. https://twitter.com/AryJeay/status/1757702577607602444

That's definitely a major strike, Hezbollah is still in the fight

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[–] [email protected] 48 points 8 months ago (12 children)

The Krauts want the A-bomb.

High-ranking SPD politician Katarina Barley expressed interest in a European army with the possibility of its own European nuclear weapons.

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[–] [email protected] 48 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Nitter.cz has fallen

We are NoLog - a collective supporting free-thinking individuals and organizations in their efforts to change the world for the better.

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Nitter.cz is going down today, it was a fun ride, but Twitter blocked the last way of accessing their content without login. More info will be on https://nitter.cz

2/15/2024, 5:13:35 AM

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago (10 children)

Day 3 of no treats. Eating healthy, not drinking, not smoking cigs or weed. How do people cope living without treats? Seems like this lifestyle is impossible to sustain.

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (5 children)

Who would Netanyahu prefer as president? Biden or Trump.

This question is pertinent, because Netanyahu is in every position right now to royally fuck Biden over by leading him on behind closed doors and then making him accomplice to the horrors that are committed.

My take would be that Netanyahu would always prefer an even more right wing US, and that he would recognise his position of influence over the election. If I have recognised this I am certain he has.

Trump will win.

[–] [email protected] 49 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

100% Trump. He moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem and they named an illegal settlement in occupied Golan Heights after him. He had Qasem Soleimani vaporized just for the hell of it. Trump generally just did whatever the hell he wanted, and that makes him a kindred spirit of the Likudniks, who share a profound disdain for the restraint of any sort of bureaucratic due diligence or rituals of liberal democracy.

Israel is guaranteed an unlimited supply of weapons and diplomatic cover regardless of who wins in the US. But they could also have US leadership founded on a base of apocalyptic religious fundies who support them unflinchingly.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Biden’s only fulfilled campaign promise is that he will be a one-term president

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago (5 children)

So did nothing funny even happen with the Texas border patrol and feds?

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)
Moody’s Just Told You So — Downgrades Israel, Warns That Weaker US Backing for Israel, War With Hezbollah Would Trigger Crash

By John Helmer, hosted at Naked Capitalism. Yves has a foreword:

Yves here. Helmer continues his discussion of the high and rising cost of the war in Gaza on Israel’s economy. Helmer was early to point out that Israel’s economy can’t endure a long war, even with US economic support. Too many important sectors are taking hits with no prospect of recovery under conflict conditions, and uncertainty when and if they could get back to their old level in the unlikely event that Israel backed down. Note that the ratings agencies are more timid about downgrades than Helmer indicates. For corporate issuers, the norm is to downgrade only when the bonds are already trading at a lower ratings level, as in to validate Mr. Market. Similarly, in the subprime mortgage securitization era, the agencies were extremely slow to downgrade, there out of reluctance to admit how poor their ratings practices had been. Mind you, that does not diminish the fact that presumed-late downgrades of Israel were pushed back a tad more by Israel and US temper tantrums.


Twice already the warning of the obvious has been posted in the money markets — Israel cannot survive a long war with the Arabs and Iran. In this long war, the gods do not favour the Chosen People, it was reported on October 27, three weeks after the Hamas offensive began. The decline in Israel’s export earnings from tourism and diamonds; the loss of imported supplies for manufacturing and consumption from the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea; and increasing risk to both imports and exports at the Mediterranean ports within range of Hamas and Hezbollah strikes were identified at that time. The international ratings agencies, Moody’s, Fitch and Standard and Poors, postponed announcing the obvious for as long as they could.

In attrition war, on the economic front just like the Gaza and other fire fronts, the Axis of Resistance wins by maintaining its offensive capacities and operations for longer than the US and US-backed Israeli forces can defend. Like troops, tanks, and artillery pieces, the operational goal is to grind the enemy slowly but surely into retreat, then capitulation. Last week, Moody’s had already decided in-house to downgrade Israel; for several days senior management fended off a ferocious attack from Israeli officials and their supporters in the US trying to compel postponement of the downgrade and the analytical report substantiating it.

On February 6, in a review of the shekel, bond, credit default swaps (CDS), budget deficit, and other indicators, the conclusion was there could be no stopping the money markets from moving against Israel. Negative ratings from the agencies raise the cost of servicing Israel’s state and corporate bonds, and put pressure on the state budget. A ratings downgrade is a signal to the markets to go negative against the issuer – this usually comes after the smart money has changed its mind and direction. In Israel’s case, however, there has been an exceptional delay between negative outlook and downgrade. The last Fitch report on Israel was dated October 17; Moody’s followed on October 19; Standard & Poors (S&P) on October 24. That Israeli and US tactics had forced postponement of new reports from the troika was obvious. A fresh warning was published on this website: as real estate and other tax collections collapse, Israel will have to make a large cash call on the US. This is going to come in the near future, just as the government in Kiev has been forced into calling on Congress as the Ukraine war is being lost. The longer both wars are protracted, the more obviously the loss of confidence expresses itself in Washington. Moody’s has now caught up. According to the Israeli press, this is the first credit and currency downgrade in their country’s history.

In a report dated last Friday but not issued until Saturday, the Jewish sabbath, the agency officially reduced Israel’s rating from A1 to A2, and added pointers of further downgrading to come. The Anglo-American press immediately reacted against Moody’s. “Israel hits back”, the Financial Times headlined. The newspaper added: “[Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, in a rare statement over the Jewish Sabbath, said: ‘The rating downgrade is not connected to the economy, it is entirely due to the fact that we are in a war. The rating will go back up the moment we win the war — and we will win the war.’” In the Associated Press report, “Israel’s finance minister blasts Moody’s downgrade”. Rupert Murdoch’s platform Fox claimed: “Israel has a strong, open economy despite Moody’s downgrade”. “Israel’s creditworthiness remains high,” according to the New York Times, “but the rating agency noted that the outlook for the country was negative… A rating of A2 is still a high rating.”

The press release version of Moody’s report is republished verbatim so that its meaning can be understood without the propaganda. Three points have been missed in the Anglo-American counterattack and Israeli government’s bluster. The first is the warning that Israel will soon have to request enormous cash backing from the US, and if there is any sign of weakening on that in Washington, the collapse of the Israeli economy and its capacity to continue its war is inevitable. The Moody’s report camouflaged the point this way: “The related issuances benefit from an irrevocable, on-demand guarantee provided by the Government of the United States of America (Aaa negative) with the government acting through USAID. The notes benefit explicitly from ‘the full faith and credit of the US’ and as per prospectus, USAID is obligated to pay within three business days if the guarantee is called upon.”

The second point strikes at announcements from Israel Defence Forces (IDF) generals and Netanyahu of their plan to expand their operations on the northern front – the Litani River ultimatum they called it in December. According to Moody’s report, “downside risks remain at the A2 rating level. In particular, the risk of an escalation involving Hezbollah in the North of Israel remains, which would have a potentially much more negative impact on the economy than currently assumed under Moody’s baseline scenario. Government finances would also be under more intense pressure in such a scenario.”

The third point is the most explosive. After cutting Israel’s rating to A2, Moody’s warned that further and deeper downgrades may follow, but that there is presently no way the ratings agency can predict what will happen next. “The ongoing military conflict with Hamas, its aftermath and wider consequences materially raise political risk for Israel as well as weaken its executive and legislative institutions and its fiscal strength, for the foreseeable future.” In flagging those last four words – “for the foreseeable future” — Moody’s has told the markets that the strategic initiative in this war has now passed to the Axis of Resistance. Of course, the Arabs and Iranians already know.

I just don't see why people could possibly think that the USSR will fall. It's been standing pretty securely there for the better part of a century and it has nukes, so if it does fall, it's not going out peacefully. You are all delusional if you think that the Soviet Union is just gonna collapse like that.

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago (13 children)

My Brazilian friend says the toilets flush in the opposite direction than they do up here on the northern hemisphere.

[–] [email protected] 49 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Everything is upside down in the southern hemisphere and it takes a while to get used to seeing everything inverted. Scared me quite a bit the first time I crossed the equator.

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago (2 children)

So uh, one month since icj decision is getting nearer, has there been any moves to speed up stuff? Any new hamas links of the judges? israel will have to provide some documents, are they likely to?

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago (7 children)

A stock market that always goes up is just poor allocation of capital, right? Wealth must come from somewhere and flow somewhere. If a stock market continues to see growth, it inherently means wealth will flow towards those with the greatest stock value (the shareholders). By extension, wealth must be created by the workers, and this type of stock market serves only to transfer wealth from workers to shareholders.

A stock market is supposed to be used to efficiently allocate capital between different options, so assessing the aggregate value of a market sounds like it doesn't capture the actual point of the market, right? Assuming no economic growth and fixed interest in an entirely free market, you'd expect that stock market returns should be ~nil since it should efficiently allocate capital to where it's needed: profit in one sector and loss in another sector should equalize.

All this is to say: Japan's Nikkei has been going up despite a recession, and China's Hang Seng has been going down despite 5% growth. Yet, everyone points to the Chinese stock market as if it's an indicator for China's economy.

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

what was the title of wiki article detailing the 2014 chaos in ukraine prior to the war, before it got changed to 'revolution of dignity'?

[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago (2 children)

February 2014 Maidan revolution

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago (23 children)

Why do people call it Lunar New Year now? Was the word China too spooky for them? It just feels like English-speaking Westerners combining the Spring Festival, Seollal, Tet, etc. because they can't possibly understand that Asians aren't an ethnically homogenous group.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago (8 children)

Ecuador cancels its decision to supply Russian armaments to the US. (Link in Spanish Only)

Translation: The decision to deliver obsolete equipment to Washington, announced in January by President Daniel Noboa, provoked Moscow's objections, since such a supply would violate contractual obligations.

Ecuador has reversed its decision to supply Russian weaponry to the United States, reports RIA Novosti. In January, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa announced that his country planned to exchange obsolete equipment, "Ukrainian and Russian scrap, for $200 million worth of modern equipment" with the U.S. by the end of January.

For her part, the Ecuadorian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility, Gabriela Sommerfeld, assured that "there is nothing new" in Ecuador's decision, since "it does not violate any regulations" and "it is not illegal". According to the Foreign Minister, "this equipment is not operational", and her country "can cancel it, sell it, give it away or exchange it".

Russia stated its position to Ecuador on the transfer of military equipment to the United States. "In case of transferring military property to a third party, Ecuador will violate its international obligations, and this may have negative consequences for our future bilateral interaction," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

According to Zakharova, the provisions of the contracts specify that the equipment should not be transferred to third parties without the consent of the Russian side. "All this has been raised with the Ecuadorian side invoking the clauses of the relevant treaties and agreements," she said, referring to the possible consequences for Quito. "There is no ambiguity in our position," he concluded.

Meanwhile, U.S. Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs Deputy Assistant Secretary Kevin Sullivan suggested this month in an interview that such Russian equipment could be sent to Ukraine.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago

Like Gaza...

Children's Mercy hospital is treating 12 patients from the shooting at the Chiefs victory rally. 11 are children, 9 have gunshot wounds.

Nitter

[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

Abu Obeida gives a speech for the first time in a month:

133 days since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle, which has changed and will change the face of the region. It marked the beginning of the end for the longest and last occupation in contemporary history, leading to its defeat, disgrace, and exposure.

The Al-Aqsa Flood continues to evolve to eliminate injustice and aggression against Al-Aqsa and the land of Isra and Mi'raj, becoming a pivotal point in the history of our nation, by the will of Allah.

For 5 consecutive months, our steadfast Palestinian people in Gaza confront a Zionist-American war. Despite the brutalities and appalling massacres, this resilient and generous community stands resolute, refusing to surrender.

The defeat of those incapable of subduing a population whose children teach lessons of courage to the helpless adults. Women who raise generations and embody the essence of resistance, turning it into a legendary force of the era and an iconic symbol of courage, sacrifice, and heroism.

How can they defeat a population whose resistance is deeply embedded in their collective conscience, sharing the burdens of suffering, pain, and hope? They sacrifice their most cherished, with leaders and soldiers marching in the path of Allah, defending the holiest sanctuaries and the most significant causes.

Our fighters in Al-Qassam Brigades and other Palestinian resistance factions continue to confront a criminal army, the likes of which have not been seen in modern history in terms of its brutality, savagery, and repugnant racist ideology. They inflict unprecedented losses on the enemy's army, a level unseen in the history of our people's revolution.

Our fighters destroy the enemy's vehicles and armored units, engage heavily armed soldiers supported by tanks, aircraft, and military ships, setting well-prepared ambushes. They skillfully snipe at their officers and attack their soldiers from point-blank range.

Whenever the enemy thinks it is secure in a scorched area, our fighters emerge unexpectedly, conducting high-impact operations, fighting with the help, support, and guidance of Allah.

Simultaneously, battles with the fighters of our nation and its resistant forces continue on all fronts, expanding and intensifying in the face of the enemy's arrogance, aggression, and Nazi-like brutality.

We won't delve into listing the operations by Al-Qassam Brigades, as we announce them promptly 24/7. Some fighters' field conditions delay the announcement of certain missions. We prioritize security and complex field conditions, choosing to postpone the disclosure of some operations and scenes for safety reasons.

Additionally, Hamas in northern Gaza fired a barrage of missiles towards Ashkelon and Zikim in the northern Gaza Envelope, about 12 hours ago.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)
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[–] [email protected] 45 points 8 months ago (5 children)

ABC News: Two sources familiar with deliberations on Capitol Hill said the intelligence has to do with Russian Federation wanting to put a nuclear weapon into space

A high-altitude Nuclear-EMP creates an electric free field incident powerful enough to damage any microcircuitry onboard satellites (see: Starfish Prime Test), especially modern electronics due to increasingly thin structures (therefore electric breakthrough occurs already at relatively low voltages). We are hardening military systems against such EM incidents by shielding, e.g. on a ship using its hull as a Faraday cage. This can't be done on a satellite due to weight constraints.

First, a space nuke would disable recon satellites, both RF (radio frequency) and EO (electro optical), therefore making command blind. Second, it would disable GPS, therefore severely reducing effectiveness of ballistic and cruise missiles guidance (inertial guidance is drifting over time, losing accuracy over longer distances). Third, communication satellites (military but also commercial such as Starlink) would be disabled, leaving troops without orders in time of crisis. Finally, radars are cluttered for days by charged particles bouncing along earth's magnetic field lines, emitting EMI, making air defense and air operations almost impossible.

It would instantaneously nullify most of the US most powerful military assets. It's the ultimate preemptive strike weapon, so it's clear why they would be concerned.

So this is like Call of Duty MW3? I thought this was going to be like that CoD were the Venezuelans use a giant space station to send giant iron rods into California because they are ebil.

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