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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Jazan refinery complex in southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the Yemeni border. The big squares depict large thermal signatures - i.e. giant fires caused by missile strikes.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAs many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There's at least five strictly military problems:

  1. Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.

  2. Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran's military and society. There's enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they're just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.

  3. Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they're getting shot down.

  4. Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran's hands, the US's delaying tactics favor Iran instead.

  5. Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet's coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.

No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump's threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren't enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do... something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it's hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you've landed troops somewhere. We saw the "pilot rescue" (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.

It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country's internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi's remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] red_giant@hexbear.net 21 points 2 hours ago

Trump says US and Tehran having 'good talks' as drones hit Iran's neighbours

Saudi Arabia takes the cuck-chair

Washington abruptly suspended a two-week campaign of air strikes on Iran on Saturday in Trump's latest strategic U-turn in the five-month-old conflict.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Iran would halt its own attacks as long as Trump's self-imposed ceasefire continued

Separately, Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen said they had targeted the East-West Pipeline carrying oil to Saudi Arabia's main Red Sea port of Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi drone incursions.

Trump's decision to suspend U.S. attacks reflected advice from his military that the bombing had reached the limits of what it could achieve, according to a U.S. official and several U.S. media reports.

The U.S. official told Reuters military commanders had advised the president they were running out of targets ​and that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ​General Dan Caine, had expressed concern over the ⁠depletion of air munitions.

Trump dismissed suggestions that the U.S. faced munitions shortages, saying the military was rapidly rebuilding inventories depleted by shipments to Ukraine. He said he would like more of "the more sophisticated stuff."

It remains unclear what leverage Washington can exert to break Iran's grip on the strait.

[-] Transform2942@lemmy.ml 9 points 1 hour ago

The Yemenis can have a little ferocious retaliation, as a treat

Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali commented on the Western imperialists' information warfare:

He noted that for Russia and Iran, hybrid and information warfare are the biggest challenges they now face.

"The enemy, having lost hope of achieving success through purely military or economic attacks, is resorting to cyber tools and psychological operations - a dangerous arsenal that includes fake news, manipulation of public opinion, and the disruption of critical services," Jalali said at the opening of the Positive Hack Camp.

https://tass.com/world/2165995

A little Strait of Hormuz shipping update:

All vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past three days have used the corridor designated by Tehran, with no ship using a US-promoted route near Oman’s coast, according to data by maritime intelligence firm Marisks.

The group announced on Monday that 78 vessels, including 20 Iranian-flagged, have been observed crossing the Strait of Hormuz since Saturday, CNN reported.

It said all 58 non-Iranian vessels transiting the strategic waterway used the Iranian-designated corridor, while none were recorded using the southern route promoted by the US military as an alternative shipping lane.

https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/07/27/773185/Iran-US-Hormuz-Oman

[-] culpritus@hexbear.net 2 points 5 minutes ago

Is this an indication that the US blockade of Iran is also paused? Seems like that's what this implies.

[-] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 46 points 4 hours ago

NYT - President Trump said today that Israel would have been “terminated” but for his administration’s war against Iran and strikes on its nuclear program. “You know who wouldn’t survive without us? Israel,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to an event in Michigan. “If I didn’t get involved, and I didn’t blow up those nuclear — essentially, soon to be nuclear — weapons to dust, Israel would have been terminated months ago.”

Trump also indicated to reporters that he was unmoved by Israel’s opposition to the idea of selling F-35 jets to Turkey. “Nobody tells me what we should be selling,” he said when asked about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel’s stated concerns, adding that “Turkey’s been a tremendous ally.”

[-] Transform2942@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 hour ago

Let's see how tough he's talking after meeting Bibi's pimpin hand in person

[-] red_giant@hexbear.net 15 points 2 hours ago

Bet you $10 he doesn’t sell those jets to Turkey though

[-] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 2 points 27 minutes ago

Or he does, but with an ETA of 5-10 years and they never end up actually arriving there.

[-] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 13 points 2 hours ago

nobody tells me what to do, but I'm gonna do what Israel wants anyway because it's what I want!

[-] Rojo27@hexbear.net 31 points 3 hours ago

"Nobody tells me what we should be selling"porky-happy

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 37 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

I love how every Zionist keeps saying "if it were not for Israel, the US would not exist" or some variation of that, except for Trump who keeps saving Israel. This is probably the 10th time he has said this since 2017.

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 65 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Tehran is now the world’s largest city to offer free public transportation

Presstv

(Article from May below))

Following the commencement of joint military operations by the U.S. and Israel against Iran in late February 2026, the Iranian government has used free transit as a tool for “civilian defence.”

Fuel Conservation: With the Strait of Hormuz blocked and international blockades on Iranian ports, the government is prioritising fuel for military and emergency services. Making public transport free incentivises citizens to leave their private cars at home, drastically reducing domestic petrol consumption.

Cost-of-Living Relief: Iran has faced a plummeting currency and soaring inflation (exacerbated by the conflict). Free transit serves as a social safety net for a population struggling with the “generational destruction” of their economy.

Social Stability: Following a wave of anti-government protests in late 2025 and early 2026, the move is seen as a way to ease public frustration and maintain urban order during a state of emergency.

The implementation has evolved from a temporary emergency measure into a potential permanent policy.

[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 19 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Clearly, another crime they should pay for.

[-] supafuzz@hexbear.net 13 points 2 hours ago

but at what cost??

[-] Rojo27@hexbear.net 12 points 2 hours ago

15 minute city commies have come to Tehransquidward-scream-point

[-] daniyeg@hexbear.net 23 points 3 hours ago

if you're wondering why the metro map looks so bad, it's because lines 8 through 12 don't actually exist yet. i didn't even know they plan to expand it by 5 lines.

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 5 points 2 hours ago

It does look really weird the more I look at the map. If it wasn't posted by official news outlet I'd wonder if it was AI. Why aren't the lines straight

[-] edge@hexbear.net 20 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

How likely are they to keep it free after the war?

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 8 points 2 hours ago

No clue. We will just have to wait 5 years to find out I suppose

[-] edge@hexbear.net 11 points 2 hours ago
[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 9 points 1 hour ago

Lebanese Journalist Marwa Osman says there will be at least one maybe a few more MOU-style agreements that function as pauses between escalations.

I do not see this conflict as a war that ends. I see it as a war that pauses on all fronts.

Each ceasefire becomes a strategic intermission rather than an actual political resolution. Each agreement buys time instead of trust. And each successive round leaves all sides more deeply trapped in a cycle of escalation.

If this pattern continues, I believe this will not be the last memorandum. There will likely be another, and perhaps another after that. But unless something fundamentally changes, each pause will simply lay the groundwork for an even more dangerous confrontation.

My assessment is that we are not watching a conflict winding down. We are watching one climbing a staircase, in a slow agonizing fashion. Agonizing for folks who lost their livelihoods for destruction or occupation, folks who are still displaced and folks who are still dieing or losing loved ones in these on-again off-again rounds.

[-] oliveoil@hexbear.net 39 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

IIRC, the greatest predictor of social mobility is transportation.

Followed by education and a bunch of other stuff.

Which is also free in Iran.

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 28 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

More victims of the "Islamo-fascist patriarchal regime" 😞

[-] jack@hexbear.net 3 points 1 hour ago

Don't you dare disagree with what I've imagined

[-] oliveoil@hexbear.net 31 points 4 hours ago

Iran has a massive incentive to offer free public transport, given that they are providing extreme gas subsidies at the pump and that people would riot if they try to increase the gas prices at the pump.

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 30 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

The Presidential cabinet may be occupied by liberal market-oriented individuals who want to remove subsidies, but the Mayor of Tehran Alireza Zakani is not.

Some internal contradictions playing out and wise move of the Mayor to make this push.

I can't believe authoritarian bad country has internal political processes and local government structures. 😞

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 51 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Brigadier General Yahya Saree:

By the grace of God, a number of targets and sensitive points for the supply and transport of crude oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu were targeted with several drones, in response to the penetration of Saudi enemy drones into Yemeni airspace.

gigachad

We are seeing some reports of Aramco facilities halting production, but I am not certain if these are real.

Saudi halts production at attacked oil plants

Saudi Arabia has temporarily halted production at two Aramco oil facilities that were attacked, interrupting about half of the company's total output, said Saudi Energy minister prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, Saudi Gazette reports. The attacks "resulted in a temporary suspension of production at Abqaiq and Khurais plants," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said in a statement carried by Saudi Press Agency. It led to the interruption of about 50 percent of total production, he added.

[edit]

Abqaiq update: All six of the stabilization trains look damaged/blackened. This is, really, really, really bad as the lead time on those parts is long and they are hard to move. The Houthis, depite the 2019 attack, managed to hit the exact same plant again. This is also really, really, really bad.

[-] orlando@hexbear.net 29 points 5 hours ago

50 percent of total production

And the world's oil?

[-] Vingst@hexbear.net 35 points 4 hours ago

Saudi oil is 11% of world total, half of that being 5.5%.

[-] Hermes@hexbear.net 42 points 6 hours ago

Minor Pengshui landslide update:

The minibus has been found, bodies are currently being identified using DNA. No updates on casualty numbers from what I have seen, I'd assume the total is going to end up around 50. Some people on XHS are saying that the lower area of the landslide isn't being investigated enough, but that's probably just internet people complaining.

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