https://x.com/adamscochran/status/1995501382171025884

My money is on the Chinese shutting down their gamer gatcha market to Japan dominoing to the AI market imploding via Nvidia going bankrupt or some shit

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[–] 69 points 9 months ago

It's kind of amazing how I can just comment "American century of humiliation" on basically every serious story about the US and have it be relevant.

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  • [–] 60 points 9 months ago (4 children)

    95% of sales volume is financed

    that's a funny way to describe using a credit card

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  • [–] 48 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    There are a lot of "buy now, pay later" like Klarna/layaway type options people use especially for Christmas, it's not necessarily credit cards, it would be interesting to see a more specific stat

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  • [–] 50 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    That 67% not paying it back with the month is still wild, even if it was a lot of credit cards they're still going into (I imagine deeper) debt.

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  • [–] 46 points 9 months ago (4 children)

    Not necessarily. Klarna and services like it offer zero-rate loans for like 3 or 6 months, because they don't operate like a bank making money off the interest of the loans they give, they're a fintech who make their money raising capital, or by packaging your 12-installment doordash with millions of other people's small debt and then selling it in debt markets. Essentially the thing that led to the 2008 financial crash, but now this time instead of mortgages, it's financed burritos and Christmas presents. It does seem that thesemicroloans have a lot of delinquency, so... Yea.

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  • [–] 46 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Dog the bounty hunter busting down your door to repossess the burrito you ate 6 months ago.

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  • [–] 22 points 9 months ago

    When I first saw that stat I was shocked, thinking it was referring to buy now pay later. Just sat there for a solid minute thinking about how wild that was. "I bought stuff, but I didn't finance it!" oh- I did. Credit card.

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  • [–] 22 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    It's really not

    i-think-that people buying all their regular everyday purchases on credit is bad, actually

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    I mean, not really if you treat it like a debit card and never spend more than you actually have in the bank. Then you benefit from whatever points or rewards your credit card offers

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  • [–] 19 points 9 months ago* (2 children)

    Living your life dancing on a bear trap is fine just so long as you're really careful to never step on the trigger. Plus, the bait is really tasty!

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago

    For me, it's a cashflow thing. If I use credit that's one month I do not have to spend my own money on something - it also allows for larger purchases in one place, whereas I might have to move a bunch of money around and wait days if I paid cash.

    Credit card companies make their money on merchant fees, the people who get trapped in cycles of debt are just the gravy on top for the fuckers.

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  • [–] 14 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    So what happens if someone who isn't lucky enough to have a good education in finance experiences sudden financial hardship and then relies on paying more on credit than they have in the bank? (An extremely common occurrence) Would you say the debt makes the situation better or worse?

    And then, does that make you rethink whether its "not really" bad?

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  • [–] 12 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Very good point. I was responding to the “everyday purchases” not being all that bad to use a credit card for if you already have the money for it.

    Sudden financial hardship is a much different situation and I agree, the debt would make it worse

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  • [–] 8 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Right, but I think the implication in "people" after "95% of sales" there is pretty clearly "our whole society", which presents the above problems. With the context, it made your comment read as "this doesn't need to change, and if it goes bad, it's your fault". But I'm glad you understand. We just very commonly have people from the Lemmiverse here with comments to the effect of "the status quo is good, actually".

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    theres a lot of us that pay off balances immediately and use the credit card for convenience, security and perks.

    credit cards have way better user protections for fraud than debit cards. if there's a bogus charge, i can dispute it without that money going missing from my cash account. the onus is on the card company to figure it out, because i don't have to pay for it. so they invariably reverse the charges while conducting their investigation. debit fraud can be brutal, because the longer the bank dawdles, the more fees and payment rejections you can incur while your balance is artificially low.

    i only need to carry a little bit of cash, and my particular card gets cash back between 2-4% on all kinds of shit like groceries, fuel, retail household items etc.

    the only time i pay with some other method is when there is a card convenience fee / cash discount... which is becoming more frequent and often exists with independent contractors and muncipalities.

    using a CC for everyday purchases is not any more precarious than using other forms of payment unless you can't trust yourself to stay in a budget... in which case, you shouldn't use checks or a debit card because you can totally go crazy with those too and get buried in fees, not to mention the punitive banking moves like reporting to chexsystems, after which you're gonna be punitively de-banked and forced into the realm of short term loans and those strip mall check cashing services with exorbitant fees.

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  • [–] 18 points 9 months ago

    as he explains in the tweet, it's not the 95% that's really concerning, because of credit cards. it's the 67% that openly admit they'll need more than a month to repay this debt. apparently this group used to be 20%.

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  • [–] 49 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Most American retail is in the red until Christmas season, so it would make a lot of sense if consumer markets waited until about Christmas time to realize that they're crashing.

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  • [–] 50 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    While I've heard this repeated my whole life ("it's called Black Friday because that's when we're finally in the black"), but I just have a really hard time accepting that the arch capitalists who run this country really operate the whole thing on a loss for 11 months and make all their profit in December? They rip us off every fucking day; there's no way they start making real money in December.

    Or maybe because the fiscal year rolls in Sept or idk June, so they're showing profit after 3-6 months, which is maybe feasible

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  • [–] 24 points 9 months ago

    When you're rich, you can budget in terms of years. In fact, almost all "successful" businesses operate at a loss for five years or more before they are consistently profitable. The whole thing is held together with debt, family fortunes, and con jobs

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  • [–] 40 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Nvidia AI crash feels like a good bet.

    It'd be way to wild to guess China sanctioning the US over invading Venezuela but it would definitely be the most poetic way to cause it. Also I really hope the US doesn't fuckin do that.

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  • [–] 11 points 9 months ago

    On one hand, watching the US get sanctioned and the whole thing crashing down would be funny. On the other hand, I do not really want to be watching that fireball explode while I have a front row seat also on Turtle Island...

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  • [–] 32 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    95% of sales volume was financed? that's wild

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  • [–] 10 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    i read a stat that while 95% was financed (which just means they paid with a CC, which lots of people do for convenience) a full ~66% were NOT planning on paying this charge off during the 30 day grace period.. which means they are getting hit with the exorbitant interest fees. which, to me, is fucking crazy.

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago

    20% interest on 50% off is still coming out on top. Depends on what they bought.

    I bought everything on 0 interest. I’m not paying anything off in 30 days. Why should i?

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  • [–] 31 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Things will continue to get worse and people will continue to do fuck all about it

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  • [+] 27 points 9 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 25 points 9 months ago

    OpenAI doing some Enron shit.

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  • [–] 24 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    the Chinese shutting down their gamer gatcha market

    When I was younger, I thought the US needed a sort of "User Interface Administration" to handle everything from social media to advertising to video games. Something to put a set of policies down for content algorithms (always default to chronological sort, never remember user preference to do otherwise) and end the scammy pay-5.99-to-skip-this-1-hour-timer game design.

    I don't believe the US is capable of this kind of policy. But if China did it, that would be so goddam cool.

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago

    I think this is indeed a thing that states that genuinely focus on the well being of the people should consider implementing. Something to set out a style guide for all government software and websites, and regulate user hostile design out of software made or distributed in the country (obviously, regulating appearance and such of UIs should be limited to preventing outright hostile designs, let the designers make their art, but government provided stuff should be cohesive and match each other aesthetically). We spend a lot of time staring at screens. Governments should be regulating away negative aspects of those experiences and tools for our physical and mental health that only exist because someone is getting rich by frustrating us or causing health harm through intentionally inefficient technology.

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago*

    95% financing?jesus-christ

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