that sounds plausible to me, I have a similar kind of irrational anxiety about basically most situations

Oh, huh. Almost forgot that a year ago he had a kinda-anti-cop & kinda-anti-ice song. It briefly became the thing for fox-watchers to get performatively mad about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_News_(Zach_Bryan_song)

Yeah it sounds like the best option, but it's not that simple. I've already been trying to surrender to China for years and they are not replying to my emails

Yeah why's he even asking the pope, go bother some other religion

Or a magic 8 ball

Remember, when the USSR was dissolved, we knew the people were against what was going on because they were in the streets attempting and failing to stop it. In every example of a coup we have seen, it is pretty much immediately known and acknowledged by the people who are on the ground that it has happened.

Unfortunately I think there are many examples of revolutions making errors or fatal compromises that are not recognized at the time, or not effectively opposed. To avoid debating details, everyone would agree that everything was not going perfectly until 1991? And the popular opposition only appeared too late and too small to stop it. But surely something could have been done at some earlier point?

as well as using material evidence to support analysis instead of emotions and fears. If someone is guessing and ends up right, that isn't a Marxist way of processing information and is almost useless in any greater analogy or strategy. If leftists on hexbear don't enough information to know what is going on but keep seeing other leftists online perpetuating imperialist talking points "from the left," they may adopt those perspectives and stat perpetuating them as well, including in the organizations they are in.

I think where this discussion keeps getting stuck is trying to analyze the intentions of Delcy Rodríguez and of the government generally, which are largely unknowable outside of a small circle. We do a bit better when analyzing the concessions they've made to US imperialism, but the extent and the impact of them is also debated, and much of it hasn't yet happened, so it's difficult to know. As far as popular opinion, I would imagine most people there are presenting a united front against US imperialism, but none of us can actually read the popular mood from wherever we're posting from. I'm sure their judgment and strategy is better than whatever we could come up with, but it's absolutely not infallible.

There are a few things we can absolutely say with confidence. The US is going to continue to squeeze Venezuela. Their weakening empire has meant an increased focus on exploiting and controlling Latin America, a trend very likely to continue in the med/long term. And Venezuela is not in a great position to resist this pressure militarily or economically.

So where does this end? What can force the US to back off and at least give them some room again? Some combination of external factors like military depletion, severe economic crisis, or other "problems" taking priority might be enough. But that's entirely outside of any of our control. The only thing they can do is movement building and preparing for popular resistance, the same things that apply to the core countries or the rest of the region. Passively trusting the existing state is not sufficient because that state is not in a position to resist effectively on it's own, regardless of anyone's intentions.

So what I'm hearing is that CGTRI is funding research in large volume and all researchers should be very aware of that when looking for funding?

I still can't get over the "99% Hitler" thing. It's like saying "I understand we live under fascism, but as long as I've personally done the absolute minimum to make things slightly less-worst, then I can feel like I've done my part" and the logic kinda works for them because any% Hitler is only a threat to them emotionally. But anyone who questions the premise or takes further action beyond voting is just a massive threat to their self-conception, and needs to be silenced.

I know this is a freezer-burnt take but apparently we're still doing 2016 discourse so I guess it's the place for it.

Maybe some kind of subscription service

Yeah but that's just for money so it doesn't count, it's not political

They must know, surely. Maybe this is actually for a domestic audience, or possibly regional.