this post was submitted on 10 Mar 2025
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Image is from Wikipedia's article on the war..


I've wanted to cover Myanmar for a while now but haven't had the needed knowledge to write much more than "This situation really sucks." After doing a little reading on the situation, I feel even more confused. A decent analogy is the Syrian Civil War, at least while Assad was in power (though it's still pretty true today) - many different opposition groups, some co-operating with the United States, others not. The main government supported partially by an anti-American superpower, but who could live with that government collapsing if there are deals to be made with the group coming into power. A conflict kept going and exploited at least partially by the United States and other imperial core powers, though with plenty of genuine domestic animosity and desires for political independence.

Recently, the Myanmar government - the mainstream media uses "junta", which is probably accurate despite the connotations - has promised elections at the end of 2025. This doesn't seem likely to happen, and even if it did, how this would work in a country as war-torn as Myanmar is unclear. The government is losing territory and soldiers at a quick pace; they now hold only 21% of the country, though that 21% does at least comprise many of the cities. It's difficult to get a handle on the number of people affected because civil wars and insurgencies have been ongoing in some shape or form for decades, but we're talking at least millions displaced and thousands of civilians killed.

Here's a comment by @[email protected] from fairly recently that covers the situation in Myanmar:

comment

The military government of Myanmar is losing to the Rebel Groups, and badly. https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-rebels-closing-in-around-junta-into-fifth-year-of-civil-war-/7958145.html

somethings really afoot though, news about myanmar from western outlets and channels have suddenly all remembered myanmar exists and written quite a lot about them in the last few days. Its suspicious, it could be capitalists trying to signal their want for US involvement in the civil war. It could also be a targeted propaganda campaign already pre planned in order to make sure people are clued into the conflict.

I think this seems to be another Assad situation. The Military government is pretty unpopular domestically and is losing quite a bit of ground. I would be surprised if they lasted to 2027. Supplied by both Russia and China, theyve been able to keep some flow of weapons, but are suffering a lot from manpower issues. Conscription has been enacted, but conscripts are a poor replacement for trained soldiers. According to reports, they only hold about 21% of the land and are losing lots of territory. They also have extended their emergency rule for another 6 months, throwing doubt on the ability to follow through with their 2025 election. They've lost large amounts of territory, thousands of soldiers, and 2 regional commands. They're not dead yet though, as they have some ability to retake some territory and win some battles, but again 21%. Rebels currently are making steady progress towards the second largest city in the country.

while I don't like the rebels, they are western aligned, they have popular support and are allied to many of Myanmar's ethnic minority defence groups. Im wondering who really has the power in this situation though, since many of the gains seem to be made by the Ethnic armies, not the NUG. This revolutionary energy could be fueled to establish a socialist federation, but won't, and the popular revolutionary energy is fueled toward the NUG. It'll probably be another pro-west bourgeoisie democracy. It will probably then turn against the ethnic rebels and we'll end up basically where myanmar was pre coup. Probably will have a strong military influence on politics as well, since the rebel forces seem to be made up of officers and very little political groups. By then, people will be extremely tired of war and more likely to accept any conflict resolution than another civil war. In the midst of "It Happened" stands a stronger, unmovable "nothing ever happens". Would be neat if the Communist Party of Burma could somehow come out on top, but they have only around 1000 soldiers and don't control a large amount of territory.

China's interests in the region are still secure, but siding with the Junta is a bad idea, one I understand though. China doesn't want a western aligned power to take over a china aligned state, and is trying to make sure their economic investments in the area are protected and their mineral income is continued. They have deep ties with many Ethnic Minority states, especially on their border, and the NUG forces, mostly again to protect infrastructure investments and keep the minerals flowing. They might flip back to the NUG as the Junta starts collapsing over the next year or so, especially since the new US administration seems to be really cutting back on foreign aid. The General in charge of the rebel government forces complained quite a bit about how much aid ukraine got and how much he wanted that aid. He was basically begging for anti aircraft systems "like in ukraine" lol. China could definitely swoop in and back the rebels, which while hurting their reputation, is probably the best move long term. China's only interest is to keep Myanmar from being pro-west, keep control of Myanmar's mineral flow, and protect other investments in the area.


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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

Mildly interesting financial news: gold is growing to 3k, seems weird though, detached from other commodities and bitcoin. So no coherent explanation outside of paranoia of goldbugs i guess. Think iwas wrongo @[email protected]

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Gold is used as a holding stock when funds pull their money out of other stocks they're worried about, they put it in gold instead.

Makes sense for it to go up while the rest of the market goes down so significantly, this is from money that was pulled out of the rest of the market.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

A recent episode on Geopolitical Economy Report has Michael Hudson talking about the gold price increase: https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/02/13/politics-gold-price-economist-michael-hudson/

Their argument is that there has indeed been demand for gold as an alternative asset to US Dollars or Treasury Bonds by national banks. And another aspect is among private buyers. The US has been lending out gold for years and there is now almost a "run on the banks" effect where people who want to hold gold are wondering if the gold is even on hand.

I've been slowly reading Shaikh's Capitalism and his chapters on Money. And, in addition to Hudson's above interview, it has me reconsidering my previously held view of gold as irrelevant. Even if it no longer serves as a medium of pricing or circulation, it still has function as a store of value and is some alternative to paper money.

Some excerpts from the Episode

I wrote my book Super Imperialism to say that [going off gold] is not going to interfere with the American empire, because if countries, central banks, governments can’t buy gold, they had only one big alternative at that time, and that was to buy dollars.

And how do they buy dollars? They buy US Treasury bonds... They put in their money and hold it in the form of US debt...

We’ve seen, in the last decades, the central banks have devoted a steady rise in the proportion of their reserves that they hold in gold, and proportionately less of their reserves in the form of U.S. dollars...

But other countries are not just recycling these dollars. They’re spending more and more of the dollars they get on gold, as a kind of safe haven for them: something that is solid.

Gold is an asset that doesn’t have a debt attached to it. If you hold a gold coin, or a gold bar, that’s a pure asset — no debt at all.

But if you hold a Treasury bond; that’s a debt, a debt of the United States. And if it’s a debt of the United States, it’s like your bank deposit is a debt of the bank to you. If the US goes under, like a bank goes under, or if it just refuses to pay, then you’re out. And there’s something ephemeral about all of this.

Suddenly, gold is more than just an investment vehicle. There have always been gold bugs who don’t understand, “How is it that the government can just print money? We don’t understand. We’re going to just try to buy gold, and there should still be the gold standard, like there was in the 19th century”. There are all these crazies on the right wing, libertarians, who don’t trust government.

But now we’re talking about demand not just from the crazies, but from regular funds that are looking at the trends, and they realize that there’s a pile-on effect that is occurring. Everybody suddenly is moving into gold....

Well, you’ve seen increasing pressure to create an alternative for the last decade or so... Other countries want to de-dollarize, and the United States fears, “What is going to be the alternative?”

Well, to some extent, we know they’re buying each other’s currencies.... But still, there is an idea that gold is a kind of asset that the whole world has been able to agree on, along with silver, for the last 3000 years, as the monetary base.

How are you going to get countries all over the world, from North America, to Europe, to Asia, all to agree on what to hold? Well, they’re trying to come up with an agreement now, and they realize that you can’t have a BRICS monetary system until you have a whole political integration of the BRICS. So that’s not going to be an alternative for right now. So countries have been buying gold

The last part of the interview is about the US and England leasing out gold to gold dealers. Both as a way of making money and a way to keep the price of gold down so it doesnr replace the US dollar as that store of value. But over the years, the lack of statistics on the amount of gold the US actually on hand has led to a run of sorts according to Hudson.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Trump Administration launches CBP Home, a new “self-deportation” app

Article

The app replaces Biden-era CBP One, which helped asylum seekers get appointments at the border to legally enter the country. The app created by the Biden Administration called CBP One, to help asylum seekers get an appointment at the border to legally enter the country, is now CBP Home, which includes a new tool launched Monday by the Trump Administration to allow immigrants who are in the country irregularly to “self-deport.”

“The CBP Home app gives foreign nationals the option to leave now and self-deport, so they may still have the opportunity to return legally in the future and live the American dream,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement. “If they don't, we will find them, deport them and they will never come back.”

The app has a new feature called “Intent to Depart” that offers undocumented immigrants or those whose paroles, or parole permits, have been revoked “an orderly and defined voluntary process to notify the U.S. Government of their intent to leave the country,” according to Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which is responsible for the app. Pete Flores, acting CBP commissioner, said in a press release that through this route irregular immigrants could avoid “harsher consequences” such as detention or expedited removal.

Those undocumented immigrants who choose to self-deport using this tool must identify themselves with a photo and biographical information. The application also asks immigrants if they have “enough money to leave” the country and if they have a “valid and unexpired passport from their country of origin.” The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the umbrella agency for immigration enforcement, such as CBP, has not clarified how the process works once the app forms are completed.

The Administration terminated CBP One just minutes after Donald Trump took office. Originally launched in 2020, the Joe Biden Administration expanded its functions in 2023 to include tools for migrants in Mexico to request appointments to file asylum petitions, in order to order the flow of migration and reduce illegal crossings. In the year it was available, one million immigrants were able to enter the country legally thanks to it.

During the campaign, Trump criticized it, saying it facilitated mass migration to the United States and that authorities did not adequately vet migrants before letting them into the country, and promised to end it. When he made good on his promise last January 20, thousands of migrants who already had scheduled appointments were left stranded without them.

"The Biden Administration took advantage of the CBP One app to allow more than one million aliens to illegally enter the United States. With the launch of the CBP Home app, we are restoring the integrity of our immigration system," Secretary Noem said Monday. Those who have the CBP One app downloaded on their cell phones will see that they will be automatically upgraded to CBP Home.

The Trump administration, frustrated with the current pace of immigrant apprehensions and deportations, has recently made “self-deportation” a key strategy in its immigration agenda. The app comes after the Republican administration announced on February 25 that it would create a registry for immigrants in an irregular situation. The measure, which has not yet entered into force, although there is no clear deadline for it, would force undocumented immigrants over 14 years of age who have been in the country for more than 30 days to provide their personal information, fingerprints and place of residence.

The Republican administration also announced last month that undocumented immigrants will be banned from flying and will only be able to board planes that will take them back to their respective countries. Until then, it was possible for people without papers to travel on domestic flights with the identification granted by the CBP One application. This was announced by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA): “Illegal aliens who previously had their identity established using CBP One will only be allowed at the checkpoint if the TSA can determine that the purpose of the travel is for deportation or movement between detention centers”.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (5 children)

I think Noah Kulwin just got arrested occupying Trump Tower

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Glad to see he's about the real shit

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

He was just released after getting arrested.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

China has trapped the Taklimakan in the green cauldron. now it will advance along benefitial Axies to cut it into ever smaller Isolated Pockets until its Insolance is Punished.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

~~Western~~ Eastern Desert Campaign

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

no its must be the western Desert Campaign , since they also currently also fight a eastern Desert campaign in inner Mngolia.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

China has complete ~~fire~~ planting control over the desert encirclement. The sand has two choices: surrender to the trees or ~~die~~ be blown away.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

30 planes , 7000 Artillery Pieces and 5000 Rocketlauncher have encircled Taklimatan & let it rain down relentlsly on him..he will be Molded into the ground!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

mahdi jinping is turning the desert green lisan-al-gaib

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Trump on Settler Colonialism:

trump-enlightened

"Denmark is really far away and really has nothing to do. What happened is a boat landed there 200 years ago or something and they say they have rights to it. I don't know if that's true. I don't think it is...."

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Trump just wants to do good ol extraction colonialism.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

And, you know, there’s a book, Settlers - very tough book, folks, very powerful - talks about who really owns the land. And if you look at Greenland, Denmark didn’t build it, okay? I don’t see a lot of Danes there. I see ice, I see minerals - very important, very valuable. But maybe, folks, maybe it’s not about who takes it, maybe it’s about who it already belongs to. Very interesting. We should think about that.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

"J Sakai folks...Really great guy! Very elusive, not many TV appearances, but if he came to me I'd put him on TV"

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/qa-craig-baird-us-mckinley-1.7477340 Q&A: Historian says U.S. tried to annex Canada with tough tariffs before — and it didn't work

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Australia warns the US it has other buyers for critical minerals.

"There's got to be a whole lot less America and more Asia… and a whole lot more international engagement."

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Nuclear talks between Iran, Russia, and China are happening in Beijing on Friday.

Will they throw Iran under the bus ( clueless )? They did just hold joint naval exercises, though, so maybe they will surprise with some kind of security guarantees in exchange for giving up nukes (also clueless ).

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (5 children)

Schumer announces he will vote to keep Hitlerism open

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

We MUST keep these departments running for Trump to cut at all costs

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

he folded like an origami i-cant

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

DHS raided Columbia dorms yesterday:

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Schumer says he will vote for the GOP Continuing Resolution that keeps the government funded and also gives the Trump admin further discretionary powers to redirect some of the funding and budget. Also, it includes the usual stuff like;

Overall, the measure would boost defense spending by $6 billion compared to fiscal year 2024 and decrease nondefense spending by $13 billion.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I guess it would be weird to shut the government down if you're not advocating for anything in particular.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/us-citizen-child-recovering-brain-cancer-deported-mexico-undocumented-rcna196049

A family that was deported to Mexico hopes they can find a way to return to the U.S. and ensure their 10-year-old daughter, who is a U.S. citizen, can continue her brain cancer treatment.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Pentagon tasked with providing ‘military options’ to ensure US access to Panama Canal, memo says - CNN

Article

The Trump administration has formally asked Pentagon officials for “credible military options” to ensure unfettered American access to the Panama Canal, one of several new directives outlined in what amounts to a major overhaul of US strategic priorities, according to a new memo that was sent to senior leaders and reviewed by CNN.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that the US needs to reclaim the canal, most notably during his recent speech before Congress, but his administration has now formally requested potential military options for doing so, the memo from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reveals. Among the directives defense officials were instructed to execute “immediately” is: “Provide credible military options to ensure fair and unfettered US military and commercial access to the Panama Canal,” according to copy of the document reviewed by CNN.

Titled “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” the memo represents a marked shift in Pentagon priorities compared to the directive it replaces – the 2022 National Defense Strategy – and aligns with Trump’s publicly stated goals like using military assets at the US border, reinforcing the United States’ presence in the Western Hemisphere and, otherwise, maintaining a nearly singular focus on China.

CNN has asked the Pentagon for comment on the memo. NBC first reported that the White House requested military options on the Panama Canal. The memo also states that the US military’s “foremost priority” is to defend the homeland, and instructs the Pentagon to “seal our borders, repel forms of invasion including unlawful mass migration, narcotics trafficking, human smuggling and trafficking, and other criminal activities, and deport illegal aliens in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security,” according to the copy reviewed by CNN.

Trump has made clear that he intends to redirect the military’s focus to border operations, but the guidance issued to senior Pentagon officials codifies that as the new administration’s top priority. The order for military options ensuring “unfettered” US access to the Panama Canal will likely raise major questions. Just last week, Panama’s President José Raul Mulino accused Trump of lying in his speech before Congress by saying the US had begun to reclaim the Panama Canal.

Mulino wrote on X one day after Trump’s speech that none of his conversations with US officials have covered the US reclaiming the canal. “Once again, President Trump lies. The Panama Canal is not in the process of recovery, and much less is it a task that has been discussed in our conversations with Secretary Rubio or with anyone else,” Mulino wrote. “I reject, on behalf of Panama and all Panamanians, this new affront to the truth and to our dignity as a nation,” Mulino continued.

Trump’s remarks came after the US firm BlackRock and a consortium of investors announced a deal to buy two ports at either end of the canal from a Hong Kong-based firm whose ownership had seemed to become the focus of Trump’s concern. Since its handover in 1999 the canal itself has been operated by Panama, not China, despite Trump’s claims. But the DoD memo’s reference to military options fits with the broader theme of a planning document that appears intended to reinforce Trump’s publicly stated objectives.

Signals reduction in European presence

The interim guidance in the memo also signals a clear intent to reduce the US military presence in Europe and limit assistance to Ukraine. “Americans want allies - not dependents,” Hegseth wrote. Trump has called on NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP), a number Hegseth echoed in his first official visit to Brussels last month. Among NATO members, only Poland spends more than 4%, while the US spends less 3.5% of its GDP on defense.

Hegseth called for NATO to take over “Europe’s conventional defense, including by leading efforts to arm” Ukraine. The US will provided “extended nuclear deterrence” while committing only the conventional forces that are not required domestically or in the Indo-Pacific region. The language closely mirrors what former acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller wrote in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which called for “relying in the United States primarily for our nuclear deterrent … while reducing the US force posture in Europe

Some of Trump’s top allies, including senior advisor Elon Musk, have called for abandoning NATO altogether. Over the weekend, Musk endorsed the US leaving NATO, saying on social media “We really should. Doesn’t make sense for America to pay for the defense of Europe.” But the same demands for burden sharing and decreased reliance on the US are not made of Israel and the Sunni Arab states, some of whose leaders – including Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan – have grown personally close to Trump.

Hegseth’s interim guidance calls for “providing military aid” to Israel and “continuing to arm Arabian Gulf partners” as part of a strategy of strengthening deterrence in the region. The guidance also calls for greater military cooperation between Israel and the Sunni Gulf states. Such cooperation rarely becomes public because of the diplomatic sensitivities, but it was very apparent in a joint defense of Israel against an Iranian missile attack last April. The Trump administration is also pushing for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, having already succeeded in normalizing ties between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain.

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