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The issues and the conditions favor Donald Trump.
I'm sorry, what issues are those? Abortion? Livable wages? Climate change? Corporate greed? Social safety nets? Or is the assumption still "R= good economy"
The issues are racism and the conditions are voter suppression and brainwashing.
That's basically it. R blames inflation on Biden et al even though the US fared much better than most other nations. That is a tough nut to crack because 'better than most' does not put food on the table. Most voters aren't shrewdly logical so in a way that opinion is right as much as I hate to say it.
In reality Harris will continue Biden's strong economic performance with improvements already promised like bans on price gouging, and all her other strong issues are gravy.
This may help to explain
Dude kind of looks like a canned ham.
Butter-themed Batman villain.
And that was 15 years ago; before he had a couple strokes.
Thanks for reminding me; I'm gonna have a couple of strokes.
What a Luntz
Ahh yes. Yes it does
Dude, it's a republican pollster, what did you expect him to say?
I would assume he is referring to the issues people rank as most important in polls. The economy is pretty much permanently at the top of that list, and a lot of polls put immigration at number 2, presumably because right wing media has been working overtime to make it an issue.
Now, for smart, well informed voters who are thinking things through logically, these aren't big advantages for Trump. But that's not most voters (as evidenced by the fact that Trump's in even in this race).
The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it's bad, they tend to blame the incumbent. Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven't gone back down to where they were, so things don't feel better than when inflation was high.
If the GOP candidate was someone younger who was charismatic and didn't have a massive amount of baggage, someone who was smart enough to run on a focused economic message instead of rambling about electric cars, crowd sizes and not understanding race, I would bet that the polls would look very different right now.
That said, I think he's being too dismissive of other issues like abortion, NATO, and democracy. But in all fairness, this is from a soundbite, not a thesis statement, he's almost certainly not arguing that there are literally no issues which favor Harris. And he might be lumping some things like project 2025 and Trump's threat to democracy in with "attributes" such as Trump's age and criminal behavior.
The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it's bad, they tend to blame the incumbent.
This is one hundred percent true, but let's not forget: thanks to Biden stepping down we have a situation where Harris has (so far) managed to Jedi Mind Trick everyone into thinking she's not really attached to Biden but is a fresh, new candidate. It's uncertain how long the illusion will last, but provided it does it's possible for her to avoid blame sticking to her the same way.
Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven't gone back down to where they were, so things don't feel better than when inflation was high.
They never will. Lower inflation means that prices are rising at a slower rate now, but still rising. Prices going down would be deflation, which most economic theory says would be a complete disaster.
That is all true, but when it comes to how most people vote, it isn't about sound economic theory, it's about perceptions, expectations and emotions. Prices aren't likely to drop back down to where they were 4-5 years ago. But even if they remain relatively stable, it will probably take some time for people to think of the current prices as normal and not inflated.
The only way forward is to raise wages to match the new prices. And then hopefully try to prevent undue inflation in the future
He's a GOP pollster, he has to believe this or he'd be a Democratic pollster. You don't have to believe it, though.
"Climate change" as a term instead of global warming is literally a Luntzism. Lol
Basically immigration and the economy.
When framed vaguely in polls, respondents tend to lean right on those issues. Especially the racists with immigration.
Blows my mind cuz the markets do better under Dems almost always.
you have to think like an undecided voter
"nyeeeeeeeeeeeh me feel bad thing me life worse than me think supposed. me throw the bums out and put in people that caused problem heehoo."
CONDITIONS, not ISSUES.
Luntz, who’s been called “The Nostradamus of pollsters”
Absolutely nobody has ever said this. Luntz is a partisan hack and always has been
It may not have been intended as a compliment. Nostradamus was super vague and only right about half the time anyway.
he was quite the successful partisan hack. he created very precise language for the GOP to spout their evil nonsense in a way that more people could swallow.
Old McOrange being unhinged and uncontrollable changed that a lot, the euphemisms and dog whistles we thrown away. and now they're paying the price.
I mean, I read that somewhere once. On NJ.com I think. Today I think.
They say stuff like that every time but whatever.
I haven't ever seen this after the time I last saw it! Much wow! Such amaze!
They’re going to be in for a surprise when they realise they’ll never win another election in their current form.
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this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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