128
submitted 11 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
all 44 comments
sorted by: hot top new old
[-] [email protected] 141 points 11 months ago

The issues and the conditions favor Donald Trump.

I'm sorry, what issues are those? Abortion? Livable wages? Climate change? Corporate greed? Social safety nets? Or is the assumption still "R= good economy"

[-] [email protected] 20 points 11 months ago

The issues are racism and the conditions are voter suppression and brainwashing.

[-] [email protected] 16 points 11 months ago

That's basically it. R blames inflation on Biden et al even though the US fared much better than most other nations. That is a tough nut to crack because 'better than most' does not put food on the table. Most voters aren't shrewdly logical so in a way that opinion is right as much as I hate to say it.

In reality Harris will continue Biden's strong economic performance with improvements already promised like bans on price gouging, and all her other strong issues are gravy.

[-] [email protected] 15 points 11 months ago
[-] [email protected] 9 points 11 months ago

Dude kind of looks like a canned ham.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

Butter-themed Batman villain.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

And that was 15 years ago; before he had a couple strokes.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

Thanks for reminding me; I'm gonna have a couple of strokes.

[-] [email protected] 9 points 11 months ago

What a Luntz

[-] [email protected] 5 points 11 months ago

Ahh yes. Yes it does

[-] [email protected] 11 points 11 months ago

Dude, it's a republican pollster, what did you expect him to say?

[-] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

I would assume he is referring to the issues people rank as most important in polls. The economy is pretty much permanently at the top of that list, and a lot of polls put immigration at number 2, presumably because right wing media has been working overtime to make it an issue.

Now, for smart, well informed voters who are thinking things through logically, these aren't big advantages for Trump. But that's not most voters (as evidenced by the fact that Trump's in even in this race).

The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it's bad, they tend to blame the incumbent. Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven't gone back down to where they were, so things don't feel better than when inflation was high.

If the GOP candidate was someone younger who was charismatic and didn't have a massive amount of baggage, someone who was smart enough to run on a focused economic message instead of rambling about electric cars, crowd sizes and not understanding race, I would bet that the polls would look very different right now.

That said, I think he's being too dismissive of other issues like abortion, NATO, and democracy. But in all fairness, this is from a soundbite, not a thesis statement, he's almost certainly not arguing that there are literally no issues which favor Harris. And he might be lumping some things like project 2025 and Trump's threat to democracy in with "attributes" such as Trump's age and criminal behavior.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago

The harsh reality is, when people feel like the economy is going well, they tend to support the incumbent, and when they feel it's bad, they tend to blame the incumbent.

This is one hundred percent true, but let's not forget: thanks to Biden stepping down we have a situation where Harris has (so far) managed to Jedi Mind Trick everyone into thinking she's not really attached to Biden but is a fresh, new candidate. It's uncertain how long the illusion will last, but provided it does it's possible for her to avoid blame sticking to her the same way.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

Inflation may be slowing, but prices haven't gone back down to where they were, so things don't feel better than when inflation was high.

They never will. Lower inflation means that prices are rising at a slower rate now, but still rising. Prices going down would be deflation, which most economic theory says would be a complete disaster.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

That is all true, but when it comes to how most people vote, it isn't about sound economic theory, it's about perceptions, expectations and emotions. Prices aren't likely to drop back down to where they were 4-5 years ago. But even if they remain relatively stable, it will probably take some time for people to think of the current prices as normal and not inflated.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

The only way forward is to raise wages to match the new prices. And then hopefully try to prevent undue inflation in the future

[-] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago

He's a GOP pollster, he has to believe this or he'd be a Democratic pollster. You don't have to believe it, though.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

"Climate change" as a term instead of global warming is literally a Luntzism. Lol

[-] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

Basically immigration and the economy.

When framed vaguely in polls, respondents tend to lean right on those issues. Especially the racists with immigration.

Blows my mind cuz the markets do better under Dems almost always.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago

you have to think like an undecided voter

"nyeeeeeeeeeeeh me feel bad thing me life worse than me think supposed. me throw the bums out and put in people that caused problem heehoo."

CONDITIONS, not ISSUES.

[-] [email protected] 46 points 11 months ago

Luntz, who’s been called “The Nostradamus of pollsters”

Absolutely nobody has ever said this. Luntz is a partisan hack and always has been

[-] [email protected] 22 points 11 months ago

It may not have been intended as a compliment. Nostradamus was super vague and only right about half the time anyway.

[-] [email protected] 10 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

he was quite the successful partisan hack. he created very precise language for the GOP to spout their evil nonsense in a way that more people could swallow.

Old McOrange being unhinged and uncontrollable changed that a lot, the euphemisms and dog whistles we thrown away. and now they're paying the price.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

I mean, I read that somewhere once. On NJ.com I think. Today I think.

[-] [email protected] 19 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

They say stuff like that every time but whatever.

[-] [email protected] 5 points 11 months ago

I haven't ever seen this after the time I last saw it! Much wow! Such amaze!

[-] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago

They’re going to be in for a surprise when they realise they’ll never win another election in their current form.

[-] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago

The news source of this post could not be identified. Please check the source yourself. Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

[-] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago

According NJ Advance Media, they are:

a data-driven marketing agency and the #1 provider of local news in New Jersey and The Lehigh Valley. We drive daily conversations and engage millions of people through quality journalism on NJ.com, lehighvalleylive.com, social channels and in newsletters and print publications, including The Star-Ledger, The Express-Times and other daily and weekly newspapers.

Wikipedia:

Content on NJ.com is provided by NJ Advance Media, a company launched in June 2014 to provide content, sales and marketing services to NJ.com and Advance's New Jersey-based newspapers, including The Star-Ledger, The Times of Trenton, The Jersey Journal, the South Jersey Times, The Hunterdon County Democrat, The Star-Gazette, The Warren Reporter, The Suburban News, Hoboken Now, Ledger Local, Ledger Somerset Observer, The Star-Gazette, and The Washington Township Times. It is owned by Advance Local, an organization that operates ten local news and information sites in the United States.

MBFC (Star-Ledger):

Bias Rating: LEFT-CENTER; Factual Reporting: HIGH; Country: USA; MBFC Credibility Rating: HIGH CREDIBILITY

This review is focused on content from Nj.com, which publishes online content for the Star-Ledger. NJ.Com publishes mostly editorial content from the Star-Ledger that tends to lean left

[-] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago
this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
128 points (87.6% liked)

politics

24885 readers
3021 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

  1. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  2. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  3. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
  4. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  5. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

Register To Vote

Citizenship Resource Center

Congressional Awards Program

Federal Government Agencies

Library of Congress Legislative Resources

The White House

U.S. House of Representatives

U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

News

World News

Business News

Political Discussion

Ask Politics

Military News

Global Politics

Moderate Politics

Progressive Politics

UK Politics

Canadian Politics

Australian Politics

New Zealand Politics

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS