Archived version

Key takeaways:

• Hungary’s State Audit Office uncovered major financial mismanagement by Hungarian National Bank (MNB)-linked foundations, in an apparent government-initiated showdown against [former MNB governor György] Matolcsy.
• Matolcsy was a key figure in Hungary’s “Eastern Opening”, with the MNB operating a network of foundations, think tanks, and international forums promoting a “Eurasian identity” for Hungary.
• Much of Hungary’s Beijing- and Moscow-friendly think tank network is linked to MNB funding, making it questionable how they will continue to operate in the future.

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Between 2013 and early 2025, György Matolcsy served as the Governor of Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) and was widely regarded as a key ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. In 2024, he was listed as the 15th most influential person in Hungary by the popular “100 Richest Hungarians” list. Matolcsy played a crucial role in the Hungarian government’s “Eastern Opening” strategy, a policy aimed at fostering closer relations with non-Western partners, particularly Beijing and Moscow.

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However, despite their decade-long close relationship, reports of growing disagreements between Orbán and Matolcsy began to surface in early 2024. By late 2024, Matolcsy had become increasingly outspoken in his criticism of Hungary’s economic direction, publicly dismissing Orbán’s economic plans as “unrealistic.” In September 2024, it was announced that Matolcsy’s term as Governor of the National Bank would not be extended in 2025, signaling a clear break in their political partnership.

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Under Matolcsy’s leadership, the MNB played a central role in this strategy, using its financial resources to build ties with Beijing and promote a Beijing-friendly narrative in Hungary. However, the recent scandals surrounding MNB-linked foundations and the broader geopolitical shifts brought about by Donald Trump’s return to the White House are likely to influence Hungary’s strategic direction.

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The apparent freezing of controversial projects, such as the Chinese police patrols in Budapest, suggests a potential recalibration. As Hungary seeks to balance its relations between Washington and Beijing, institutions like the Danube Institute, known for its connections to the American conservative movement, may become more prominent than the MNB’s network of pro-Beijing research institutions. This shift could signal a broader realignment in Hungary’s foreign policy, as the country navigates the increasingly polarized landscape of great power competition.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/22898524

Speaking at a press conference in Singapore ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference, French President Emmanuel Macron said that recognising a Palestinian state was a moral duty as well as a political necessity. Macron called on European countries to harden their stance on Israel unless the humanitarian crisis in the ravaged Gaza Strip improved.

Archived version

The new investigation reveals a pronounced skew in the content promoting the two presidential candidates, over that of centrist and left-wing candidates.

In the study conducted by Global Witness investigators, TikTok showed our test accounts five times more content supporting nationalist right candidate Karol Nawrocki as centrist candidate Rafal Trzaskowski. This is despite the centrist candidate’s official TikTok account being more popular at the time than his opponent’s, with 12,000 more followers and nearly 1 million more likes.

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“When we found TikTok was sending new, politically balanced users disproportionately to far right content ahead of the Romanian election, the European Commission launched an investigation. When we found the same thing happening again ahead of the German election, we were seriously concerned about a potential pattern emerging.

“But when we looked at Poland, heading to the polls this week, we thought the results might have been different – particularly as the centrist candidate is so much more popular on the platform.

“Yet again, TikTok’s algorithm appears to be serving hard-right content over and above all other content.

“It raises the question, why is TikTok’s algorithm so into the hard right? And what is the Commission going to do about the fact that another Big Tech company may be distorting so many elections all over Europe?”

The findings come just two weeks after a Global Witness investigation in Romania found TikTok’s algorithm was serving nearly three times as much far-right content as all other political content, and similar tests around previous elections in Germany and Romania suggesting TikTok’s algorithm pushes users towards far-right content. TikTok is currently under investigation by the European Commission for its handling of election risks, with particular reference to the annulled Romania election in late 2024.

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Archived

The probability of a systemic banking crisis in Russia is on the rise, according to a new report from a state-affiliated economic think tank.

Experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) warn that while a full-blown crisis has not yet materialized, several warning signs point to a high likelihood of one happening.

In its latest analysis, CMASF describes the current situation as a "resonance" of negative economic signals: rising bad debts, early indications of depositor flight and mounting pressure on both businesses and consumers from high interest rates.

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A systemic banking crisis, as defined by CMASF, would involve at least one of three conditions: non-performing loans exceeding 10% of total banking assets, a significant withdrawal of funds by depositors, or large-scale bank recapitalizations exceeding 2% of the country’s GDP.

None of those conditions have been met so far, but the underlying risks are steadily growing, the report says.

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The Russian Central Bank, which has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat inflation, acknowledges that high interest rates are putting strain on the financial system.

Corporate borrowers are increasingly struggling to service their debt, while households are accumulating bad loans at a growing pace.

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In a recent financial stability report, the Central Bank identified corporate credit risk and consumer over-indebtedness as two of the six primary vulnerabilities in the financial system. It noted a marked increase in the cost of credit risk and a deterioration in repayment rates, particularly among retail borrowers.

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Some of Russia’s largest corporations are already feeling the pressure. The Central Bank reports that 13 of the country’s 78 largest firms now earn less in profits than they owe in interest — an unsustainable dynamic if high rates persist.

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Russia has weathered banking crises before, most recently in 2014-2015, when a crash in oil prices and Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea sparked a deep financial shock.

That episode was successfully predicted by CMASF’s early-warning indicators, similar to those now raising concern.

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/65394872

Data analysed by the BBC show that Ukraine's Western allies have paid Russia more for its hydrocarbons than they have given Ukraine in aid.

Paywall? https://archive.is/kyzkg

cross-posted from: https://szmer.info/post/7675906

Poland’s government has announced 230 million zloty (€54 million) in state support for the construction of what it says will be the world’s largest factory producing towers for offshore wind turbines.

The facility will be built by a Polish subsidiary of Spanish renewable energy company Windar Renovables and located on the northern Baltic Sea coast, where Poland is planning to develop its first offshore wind farms in the coming years.

“The Baltic Sea will be an example in the not-too-distant future of how clean, efficient and inexpensive green energy can be generated for Poland and for the whole of Europe,” said development minister Krzysztof Paszyk during yesterday’s signing of a financing agreement with Windar Polska.

The plant will be built on a 17-hectare site on the island of Ostrów Grabowski, in Szczecin harbour. The ministry says the location was chosen to allow direct sea transport of the massive steel towers, which can measure up to 10 metres in diameter, 50 metres in height, and weigh 450 tonnes.

“Such enormous dimensions make it impossible to transport these elements overland,” Paszyk told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

The factory is expected to produce up to 500 tower sections annually, equivalent to around 100 complete towers, depending on the model, each designed for turbines with a capacity of 14 megawatts. Total investment is expected to reach 880 million zloty, with Windar contributing 653 million zloty and the rest coming from state aid.

Construction of the plant will be carried out by a Polish subsidiary of the Australian PORR group. According to PORR’s statement, the facility will comprise four production lines housed in a 47,000-square-metre building, as well as a raw materials warehouse.

Yesterday, a symbolic foundation stone was laid for the factory, which is due to be completed in 2026 and reach full production capacity in early 2027, reports local newspaper Głos Szczeciński. It is expected to create nearly 500 jobs.

The development marks the latest in a series of investments by foreign firms in Poland’s growing wind turbine manufacturing sector. In early 2022, two Spanish companies, including Windar, announced plans to build wind turbine component factories.

Later that year, a Danish firm revealed it would construct a factory near Szczecin to assemble parts for wind turbines. That facility is scheduled to begin operations this year and to create 700 direct jobs.

Paszyk noted the 230 million zloty in public funding being granted to the new Windar facility is part of a broader 5 billion zloty package earmarked by the ministry for green investments, aimed at reducing Poland’s reliance on conventional energy sources.

The minister cited Baltic Towers, a Polish firm building another offshore wind tower production facility in Gdańsk, which has received more than 376 million zloty in aid.

Other government-backed ventures include SK Nexilis’s copper foil production plant in Stalowa Wola, which received over 545 million zloty in support, and IONWAY Poland’s cathode material factory for electric vehicle batteries near Nysa, supported with nearly 1.5 billion zloty.

“Increasing the share of cheap renewable energy in our energy mix will make it possible to reduce electricity prices,” Paszyk said, quoted by PAP.

Poland remains one of the most coal-dependent countries in the European Union. Although it has accelerated the development of renewables, coal still accounted for 56.7% of electricity generation in 2024. However, in April this year, coal’s share fell below 50% in a single month for the first time.

While Poland does not yet have an operational offshore wind farm, three projects are currently in development, including one that began to be constructed in February and another announced earlier this month.

Archived

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said China has stopped selling drones to Kyiv and other European nations while continuing shipments to Russia.

“Chinese Mavic is open for Russians but is closed for Ukrainians,” Zelenskiy told a group of reporters on Tuesday. “There are production lines on Russian territory where there are Chinese representatives,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy added.

The Mavic is a popular civilian quadcopter, normally used for aerial photography, which can be adapted to carry explosives. On the battlefield, Mavics can be used both for surveillance and to attack enemy targets.

Drones have become central to the war in Ukraine, dramatically reshaping the tactics both sides employ on the frontline because of their ability to limit offensive maneuvers. They’ve also been increasingly used for long-range strikes far behind the frontlines.

A European official said that Zelenskiy’s remarks match their own assessments. The official said that China also appears to have curtailed deliveries to western buyers of some drone components, such as magnets used in motors, at the same time as ramping up deliveries to Russia.

“When someone is asking whether China is helping Russia, how shall we assess these steps?” Zelenskiy said.

Manufacturers in China began limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components Bloomberg reported late last year, in a move that western officials believed was a prelude to broader export restrictions.

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Bloomberg reported last summer that Chinese and Russian companies were working together on developing attack drones. The US and European Union have since sanctioned several Chinese firms for aiding Moscow’s drone manufacturing operations and providing critical components, including as part of a recent package of measures adopted by Brussels earlier this month.

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In March, Ukraine launched a so-called the Drone Line project that envisions the creation of a “kill zone” up to 15 kilometers (9 miles) along the front line to limit maneuvers by the Kremlin’s troops and provide air support for its own infantry.

Kyiv has asked allies to help finance its drone production as it seeks the ability to make between 300 to 500 units every 24 hours, Zelenskiy said.

“There is no issue in production capacity,” the Ukrainian president said. “The issue is in financing.”

cross-posted from: https://szmer.info/post/7684008

cross-posted from: https://szmer.info/post/7674611

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has announced his support for conservative opposition Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki ahead of Sunday’s run-off election, in which Nawrocki is competing against government-aligned centrist Rafał Trzaskowski.

His endorsement comes two days after Donald Trump’s homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, also called on Poles to vote for Nawrocki and described Trzaskowski as “an absolute train wreck of a leader”.

Noem’s declaration of support came during CPAC Poland, the first time that the prominent US conservative conference has been held in the country. Orbán’s remarks came today at the Hungarian offshoot of CPAC.

“On Sunday, presidential elections will be held in Poland,” said Orbán, quoted by Polsat News. “Long live Nawrocki!”

The Hungarian leader then pointed to Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s former conservative prime minister, and said: “If you want to know what true liberal democracy looks like, ask him. Unheard-of things are happening in Poland. All European rules and principles are being trampled. And Brussels supports it.”

Morawiecki and his national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party have accused Poland’s current government, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, of violating democracy and the rule of law.

Elsewhere in his speech, Orbán announced a “patriotic plan” to “transform” the European Union. “We want to take Europe back from migrants. We want a Christian culture, schools based on national principles,” he declared.

Orbán’s Fidesz party has long been closely aligned with PiS, which ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023 but is now in opposition. Though Nawrocki is technically an independent, PiS is supporting his presidential bid.

PiS’s relationship with Orbán has, however, faced some criticism in Poland, in particular due to the Hungarian leader’s close relationship with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. That led relations between PiS and Fidesz to cool after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, though they have subsequently warmed again.

After Orbán’s endorsement of Nawrocki today, a number of figures from Poland’s ruling coalition, which contains pro-EU parties ranging from left to centre-right, posted pictures on social media of Orbán and Putin together.

“Congratulations on the support from Prime Minister Viktor Orban,” foreign minister Radosław Sikorski wrote to Nawrocki, before asking: “Will you pursue a similar policy towards Putin and the European Union?”

Last week, Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland accused Nawrocki of “playing into Russia’s hands” by declaring his opposition to Ukrainian membership of NATO.

Nawrocki has also called for measures to ensure that Poles receive preferential access to public services ahead of immigrants, the majority of whom are Ukrainians.

Polls suggest that Sunday’s presidential election run-off will be an extremely tight race between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. The winner will succeed current President Duda when his second and final five-year term in office ends in August.

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/65361134

Archived

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled he hopes Canada will be able to sign on to a major European defence rearmament plan by July 1, a step toward reducing the country's dependency on the United States for weapons and munitions.

He made the remarks on CBC's Power & Politics following the speech from the throne, which committed his government to joining ReArm Europe.

The speech did not set out a timeline, but Carney said he wants to move aggressively.

"Seventy-five cents of every dollar of capital spending for defence goes to the United States. That's not smart," Carney told host David Cochrane.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/22864892

Swiss glacier collapse buries most of village of Blatten

Climate change is causing the glaciers - frozen rivers of ice - to melt faster and faster, and the permafrost, often described as the glue that holds the high mountains together, is also thawing.

Local news has much more extensive footage

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/65313582

Archived version of BBC News article (archive.li)

Francois Burgat, a renowned French specialist on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and political Islam, was acquitted on Wednesday by the criminal court of Aix-en-Provence, in southeastern France, where he was prosecuted on charges of “apology for terrorism” for messages posted on social media.

The case began with a post the scholar published on X (formerly Twitter) on 2 January 2024, where he shared a statement by Hamas following the publication of a New York Times investigation into sexual violence allegedly committed by the Palestinian group during its 7 October attacks in Israel.

In the statement, Hamas rejected the accusations and denounced a "Zionist attempt to demonise the [Palestinian] resistance".

"Our fighters are fighters for freedom and dignity and cannot commit such shameful acts," Hamas said in the statement shared by Burgat.

In response to internet users who condemned his post, the former academic wrote that he had "infinitely more respect and consideration for the leaders of Hamas than for those of the state of Israel".

"Without public trust, effective climate policy is impossible," warns Vincent de Gooyert, sociologist and lead scientist of a paper jointly authored with several researchers from the Dutch Radboud University published this week in Earth System Governance.

"You see this, for example, in the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS). This technology is essential for achieving climate targets, but it is still barely off the ground. Industry wants government subsidies, the government says there is no public support for this, and society wants to see industry take responsibility first. But then you're stuck in a vicious circle."

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The climate debate is currently often framed from a techno-economic perspective, explains De Gooyert. “Every solution must have direct market value. If that is lacking, no one is willing to take the first step. But a solution such as CCS has no direct market value. In addition to technology, regulations and subsidies, you really need that support, because a policy without support mainly results in resistance.”

De Gooyert collaborated with colleagues Senni Määttä, Sandrino Smeets and Heleen de Coninck on the article. Their recommendations are based, among other things, on extensive experience with discussions between government, business, citizens and other stakeholders on climate issues. They work with environmental organisations, industry and governments in European countries including Finland, Sweden, Spain and Belgium.

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"What keeps coming back is that policy only works if there is mutual trust. People often think that if we explain it well, support will come naturally. But then you mainly have one-way communication, and research shows that this can be counterproductive. What you end up with is people thinking: there go those arrogant policymakers again, telling us what's good for us, and if we don't agree, they'll push it through anyway."

De Gooyert and his colleagues advocate the use of independent, scientific advisory councils, but also initiatives such as citizens' councils. "Citizens must be able to form an informed opinion independently, and there must be room for complexity and nuance. We must be honest with each other in such sessions: there are difficult choices to be made, but people must be given openness about the options and the consequences. Citizens deserve a say in their environment. To offer comfort to local residents, governments and businesses will also have to make sacrifices. We won't get there with the current method. Then we'll remain in the situation we're in now: no one willing to take big steps on climate policy, while time is running out."

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/65314164

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/65314520

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/65299000

Diesel engines fitted with illegal software to cheat pollution tests have caused 16,000 deaths in France since 2009, according to the first study to calculate the human cost of the "Dieselgate" scandal that exposed widespread fraud by car manufacturers.