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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

An image of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, c. February, where Iranian strikes have caused substantial damage and several US soldier deaths and casualties.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAfter an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.

For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran's control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is "attempting", because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.

Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn't firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they're using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it's unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying "Alright, let's get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls--" and Iran just... hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It's not a tenable position to hold, and Iran's capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.

So, what is Iran's strategy? It's what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed "debasification". If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US's military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US's strategy, Iran's is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 82 points 2 days ago

HAHAHAHA holy shit I am going to go insane matt-joker https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2079607755334193448

WSJ reports that the Pentagon is reducing training and maintenance, vital to military readiness, because of the urgent budget shortfall caused by the Iran war.

https://archive.ph/370Ig

The Pentagon, sinking billions into Iran war, is quickly running short on cash

With some funds set to dry up within weeks, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to press lawmakers Tuesday to address the increasingly urgent shortfall.

more

The Pentagon faces an urgent budget shortfall caused largely by the war in Iran, with some critical lines of funding set to run out within weeks even as President Donald Trump escalates the conflict with Tehran, according to lawmakers and current and former U.S. officials. The funding crunch is already leading the Pentagon to limit training and maintenance that help maintain military readiness, according to four current and former officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to candidly describe the budget constraints. And the collapsed ceasefire with Iran could further strain the military’s budget: After four U.S. service members died during more than a week of intensified fighting, officials in Washington signaled they were preparing for a wider conflict. The White House has asked Congress for an immediate infusion of $67 billion to help cover the costs of the war, but lawmakers are gridlocked over how to proceed. The House plans to leave Washington on Thursday for a month-long recess, leaving any deal on military funding weeks away at the earliest. “Everybody needs to look at this situation and get rid of the complacency that they have,” Rep. Pat Harrigan (North Carolina), a Republican member of the House Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment Monday. On Tuesday, after this article published, press secretary Sean Parnell said in a statement that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would “do whatever is necessary” to preserve military readiness and that defense funding is “essential.”

On Tuesday, Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine are scheduled to make their case for the money before the Senate Appropriations Committee — the first public hearing centered on the package. They last appeared on Capitol Hill in May, before a tenuous ceasefire broke down. White House budget director Russell Vought is also set to address Republican lawmakers Tuesday morning. Unless Congress acts, multiple current and former officials said the military will quickly be forced to make even more painful trade-offs. Trump launched the airstrike campaign in late February, repeatedly saying it would end within weeks. The conflict has instead lasted for months as Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway for the oil and fertilizer trade — and caused turmoil in the global economy. Vought told lawmakers last month that the war had so far cost about $30 billion, but some independent analysts say the price tag is likely much higher. The White House estimate does not include the cost of rebuilding U.S. bases in the Middle East damaged by Iranian strikes.

yeah, 'cause, uh, they're probably not gonna rebuild those catgirl-smug

The conflict has put unexpected stress on the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed aircraft and warships to the Middle East. Parts of the 2026 budget covering ongoing military operations for both services are on track to run out by the end of this month, according to two congressional aides, speaking on the condition of anonymity to candidly describe a sensitive budget situation.

they... ran through their yearly budget in a few months of a moderately-intense bombardment & blockading campaign... just... how? what were all these massive budgets even for!?

To bridge the gap until the 2027 fiscal year begins on Oct. 1, the Pentagon is already moving money around. Military exercises and trainings that help keep units prepared for combat are being limited or canceled, the four current and former officials said. The budget for equipment and facility and maintenance is also being drained to cover the shortfalls, the officials said.

you know what will help our massive readiness issues? that's right, cutting maintenance budgets!

In recent weeks, the Pentagon has asked Congress for permission to reallocate $4.3 billion from trainings and weapons purchases to address more urgent priorities, according to a document reviewed by The Washington Post. Congress has yet to act on that request. A Trump administration official said the White House budget office was working to move some funding to the Pentagon’s operations and maintenance accounts. Doing so would come at the cost of other key programs, the person said, without offering further specifics. NBC News previously reported on some of the military’s budget constraints. Meanwhile, House Republicans are crafting a package using a complicated tool known as reconciliation to try to speed some money through Congress. The House is expected to vote this week on a framework that would authorize $73 billion in fresh defense spending, slightly more than the White House request. But that strategy faces significant hurdles in the Senate, where Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) has cast doubt on its prospects. Democrats have mostly said they oppose any new funding for the Iran conflict as part of a legislative blockade of major defense bills while the administration pursues a war that has drawn bipartisan objections. Even lawmakers open to additional funding — including some Republicans — have expressed frustration at the Pentagon’s delays in communicating with Congress.

When Hegseth testified before the House panel on defense spending in April, committee leaders urged him to provide information on the war’s costs as soon as possible. The Pentagon later missed the panel’s deadline and has since failed to share requested details for weeks, including the number of precision weapons the military has in its inventories after burning through thousands of munitions in Iran, according to lawmakers and congressional aides. “We need to know what we’re purchasing and why we’re purchasing it,” Rep. Betty McCollum of Minnesota, the top Democrat on the panel, said in an interview. Hegseth has at times dismissed concerns about munitions shortages, telling CBS News in an interview last month that U.S. stockpiles were “great, and they’re only getting stronger.” In private, Pentagon officials have expressed far greater anxiety, according to current and former officials, arguing that the military desperately needs more money to restock munitions needed to deter U.S. adversaries like Russia and China. After receiving a private briefing from top Pentagon officials, McCollum said replenishing these weapons was clearly a top administration priority and that Pentagon officials other than Hegseth were “very concerned” that lawmakers were not receiving the information they needed to make decisions on additional funding.

This year’s defense budget is about $1 trillion including $150 billion in one-time funding Congress approved last year for a range of military priorities, from advanced weapons systems to energizing the U.S. defense industry. The Trump administration has requested $1.5 trillion for 2027, a massive increase that has sparked a fierce debate on Capitol Hill. Some lawmakers in both parties have shown discomfort with the total, due to concerns about adding to the $39 trillion national debt and financing an unpopular war. A recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that only 28 percent of Americans say the war has been worth fighting, compared with 68 percent who say it was not — on par with the worst assessments of the war in Afghanistan. Work on spending bills has been stalled in the Senate because of a stand-off among appropriators. Democrats have refused to support any fiscal year 2027 funding until a deal is reached on overall spending levels, as they oppose the hike in defense spending put forward by Republicans. Unexpected absences on the Senate Appropriations Committee have further complicated Republican efforts to begin some work on spending measures. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who chairs the panel on defense spending, has missed votes for a month while recovering from an injury. And Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), another member of the panel, died suddenly last week from what a medical examiner preliminarily ruled an aortic dissection.

lol. getting your legislature paralyzed because you kept a bunch of decrepit lich-lords in power too long and they all croaked in the middle of really important negotiations skeleton-wave

Harrigan, the North Carolina Republican, mostly faulted Democrats for the broader budget impasse but acknowledged that his party also deserves some blame. “There’s no question,” Harrigan said, “that every portion of those responsible for bringing the defense budget across the finish line — to include the Pentagon — are complicit.”

it's not even that big of a war lmao, this is not even a modicum of the forces gathered for Iraq '03, which was already notably smaller than Iraq '91!

also the "security apparatus leaking like a sieve trying to put the brakes on this historic blunder" continues, fortunately the deep state apparently no longer has the capacity to actually just shoot guys threatening the empire from within so they're reduced to just impotently leaking their "concern" and "anxiety"

[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 2 points 59 minutes ago* (last edited 59 minutes ago)

Run the government like a business, geniuses.

LMFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAO!

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 54 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Yea I don't get it. Sure, jet fuel is not free, but most of the stuff they are burning (weapons, gear) was already paid for and stockpiled long ago. There must be so much theft of $$$ happening.

It is also funny that they want to ask Congress to fund a war that Congress already voted shouldn't even be happening anymore. But of course, they will just give them more money anyway.

[-] WalrusDragonOnABike@reddthat.com 45 points 2 days ago

There's also just the logistics of food and water for those kept at sea in the middle east during a fuel shortage for extended periods of time. And hotels for those who are hiding from missiles at all the bases.

But yeah. Definitely a lot of money being spent for the purpose of letting a handful of people pocket most of it.

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 32 points 1 day ago

Extremely critical support to the leeches on the MIC #mansionsnotbombs

[-] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 27 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)
[-] none@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago

everyone who has a maga usaian relative, it is time to activate them by admitting you finally realize they are right, they have always been right, and they must make sure their government pursues the most magaeer policy in this moment. to the last bomb and bullet, fight for those values/children (12 other words). if they pray on it, they will see g0d ultimately on their side, will sort it out somehow no matter how bleak it seems. use that 2nd amendment to encourage them to do what's right.

this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2026
125 points (100.0% liked)

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