There's a corresponding siskind post also called something something plan A, I skimmed until the part where the US and China take de facto control of chip infrasrtucture and distribution (saying "nationalise" is haram for free market types), basically imagine having to write a letter to the government to formally justify upgrading your computer, and that's all the AI fanfiction I can tolerate without ruining my breakfast.

Also clanker crankers appropriating the term 'Golden Path' from Dune is just distasteful.

My favorite part was the section where they worked out the logistics of China hiding a data center inside of a mountain.

2040, wasn't that Kurzweils eventual prediction?

Oh damn, they originally said it was gonna be called AI 2030, so they pushed it back a bit

It’s not a rehash of AI 2027 with moved-back timelines like I thought it would be, instead its what they believe should happen in regards to AI development

Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enters a regime of mutually assured compute destruction.

And in the first footnote:

So far reality is tracking closer to AI 2027 than even we expected. (2027 was our modal year at time of publication, not our median.)

According to them, preliminary analysis of the data as of July 2026 says that rate of progress is 75% of AI 2027. This says Daniel K only believes in a 25% chance of AGI by the end of 2027, their model also hasn’t changed so their medians are still shown as beyond 2027. Footnote 11 also flat-out says they have no idea how much things will keep progressing

I’m not gonna be able to go through the whole thing because busy today, but those are my observations based off a quick glance