Their fun interactive website does exist and the probability of automated coding at the end of the year doesn’t even get to 50% (and its their p10, meaning 90% of simulations of this model beat it out)

This one requires some minor backstory

Previously, I shared this wildly racist AI generated meme posted by an AI doomer channel

In the replies, someone pointed out how some of this channel’s other thumbnails appear to be AI generated citing a specific video about the “12 endings of AI”

Today I got curious about it after not thinking about it for a while. What are the 12 endings of AI? Instead of watching a 36 minute video, I did my own research (aka one online search) and it appears that it refers to Max Tegmark (known EA) and a concept he spoke about in his book. Here’s the article I got this info for peer review: https://medium.com/@butsch_79/the-12-futures-of-ai-a42d67bd9a20

If anyone’s got 36 minutes to spare feel free to follow up

That’s great news actually. The point still stands that we very well know how to deal with climate change, so trying to make AI models fix it is dumb

This is also why I find people who claim they’re making AI to “solve climate change” to be insufferable morons. We have a solution to climate change. You and your data centres are actively making the problem worse

Porting this over: Hinton believes LLMs have gained consciousness

Bonus: This Emile Torres article on how Bernie Sanders and Neil DeGrasse Tyson have gotten mixed up with Yud and co.

Hinton now believes LLMs are conscious

real reason they picked 2027 is to balance urgency and hype generation with a bit of cushion for when the prediction doesn’t pan out.

Bingo. They probably hyped up Kokotajlo as a forecaster BECAUSE he had it earlier than the rest of them, so their prediction could have credence to it

A bit more on the Anthropic cofounder who was there at the Pope’s speech choice snippet:

Olah even went as far as to say that Anthropic is operating “inside a set of incentives and constraints that can sometimes conflict with doing the right thing,” painting his employer as exactly the kind of entity that’s attempting to assume “monopolistic control” over tech, as Pope Leo warned in his encyclical.

I guess he’s trying to say Anthropic has a bunch of limitations and financial incentives as a company (which didn’t stop them from taking those Qatar donations)

So I was poking around the AI 2027 blog and discovered that they seem to be working on making another scenario, this time titled “AI 2030” they haven’t made any posts about it (that I can find anyways) but if its just an AI 2027 rewrite but with moved back timelines I’d imagine people will be less charitable with them.

EDIT: So upon further inspection, they have talked a little bit about how they’ve been focusing on researching and writing the scenario in their April 2026 timeline update. Since they started AI 2027 in 2024 and published it in 2025, it seems most likely that AI 2030 will be out in 2027. In other words, they’re basically setting themselves up to get dunked on (especially if its just a rehash but with moved back timelines)

Its the “expert in one field = expert in all fields” stuff that I hate. There’s still plenty of jobs and areas of expertise that require humans: medicine, psychology/therapy (AI has arguably made the need for human therapists way more important), physical labour like construction work, linguistics etc. Hell human authors are definitely keeping their jobs since so many people hate slop

Ah, that one AI2027 blog post where they tried to convince people not to commit terrorism by opening the article by talking about how man’s fate may be sealed in two years time. Incredibly smart idea.

This new effort follows President Donald Trump's National Security Presidential Memo 7, which instructs the Department of Justice to target anyone holding “anti-American,” “anti-Christian,” and "anti-capitalism” beliefs.

well this whole read was a reminder about how much of an AI bootlicker Trump is.