Image is from this Bloomberg article, depicting world oil inventories plunging towards the operational floor at which pipelines and refineries cease operating, which is expected to occur in September at current rates.
A pretty short preamble below, in spoiler tags.
summary
The conflict continues to be kept at a relatively low level despite Iran's fiery encounters with US destroyers. I think it's only becoming increasingly obvious that the US is trying to cobble together some major clandestine operation mixing special forces, the air force, and naval destroyers to either seize Iranian uranium, take control of Iranian seaports, or both. Given a) how the Istafan op went, b) further Iranian preparations around sensitive sites, and c) a seeming strengthening of Iranian air defense around the Persian Gulf (multiple drones and manned aircraft have squawked emergency codes and potentially been shot down over the last few weeks), I find it difficult to imagine this operation fulfilling its objective, and even if did somehow work, why the removal of uranium would necessitate Iran ending the blockade and the war. On that note, I've seen reports that Iran is saying that if the US attacks their oil tankers again, they will resume firing on US military bases.
Additionally, Aragchi has stated that not only has Iran's missile/launcher stockpiles not gone down from pre-conflict, it has actually increased by 20%. This is unsurprising given the total war that Iran is now in; all resources within reason must now be funnelling towards drone and missile production.
Atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon are continuing. The toll that FPV drones are taking on the common Zionist soldiery are quickly becoming apparent, as we are receiving ever-increasing amounts of footage of vehicles and gatherings of soldiers being struck by Hezbollah's drones. The casualty situation is, as expected, being hidden, but any kind of serious occupation of even the border villages of southern Lebanon (let alone up to the Litani) seems unsustainable.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I really don't know why Putin is holding his punches but I'm just an armchair general.
Ukrainian strikes don't actually accomplish much, as the above article itself mentions, and Russia's running a far larger and far more successful (as in, hitting actual targets and not civilians) strike campaign on Ukraine. it just doesn't get as much coverage.
There isn't necessarily that much punch-pulling going on, unless you believe Russia should just adopt American tactics and start razing entire cities to the ground. Currently, the casualties they're inflicting on Ukraine are so severe as to be functionally tantamount to genocide - this is not meant as a critique of Russia, but rather the Ukrainian government for just deciding to feed their entire male population into a meat grinder with no concern for the future, but at the end of the day, the effects of this amount of people dying, whether as combatants or civilians, aren't that different. Demographic collapse in post-war Ukraine is basically already baked in, and every month this drags on further, the post-war scenario becomes worse and worse. There aren't a lot of moves for Russia to make beyond "just do more genocide" - they did the strike campaign on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and did that deter the Ukrainian government? Well, no, so the only thing left to do is to just finish it off and let all of Ukraine freeze to death next winter, I guess? They're hitting Ukrainian logistics to the point that soldiers on the frontline are starting to starve. They've devastated the Ukrainian economy, but there's still money coming in from the West (without which Ukraine wouldn't be able to do fundamental things like pay government employees, let alone prosecute a war - and the government is already screwing people out of pay, by for example keeping a lot of soldiers officially as missing-in-action rather than killed so they don't have to pony up for pensions to the families). They're constantly hitting Ukrainian industry, but equipment keeps coming in from the West - Ukraine's borders are vast enough that effectively stopping all supply isn't really viable, and Russia throwing a ton of Oreshniks at industrial sites throughout Europe, while it would be pretty cool, isn't necessarily the wisest move in the long term. The Ukrainians have also openly bragged about assembling drones in civilian apartments - so there's no way to actually shut that production down without, again, razing the country to the ground and carrying out an actual American-style genocide-by-air.
And as for stopping these attacks specifically - the simple reality is that there is no 100% counter to drone and missile strikes - you can't intercept everything, and you can't fully suppress the enemy's ability to launch them. The Iran war should have been a pretty thorough demonstration of this - the US and Israel had some of the most advanced air defense systems around, and yet still took a ton of hits. They ran a very extensive air interdiction campaign, and yet seemingly didn't degrade Iranian missile capability in any meaningful manner. The same advantages that Iran enjoyed against the American air campaign that we get hyped up about, are also ones that Ukraine has against Russia (to a lesser extent since it's not such a mountainous country, but there's still plenty of forests and tiny villages to hide out in, and the Russian airforce isn't anywhere near as big, so it kind of evens out), and that's something we just have to accept - technological developments don't get to only benefit the guys we like and do nothing for the other guys. That war and the broader Middle Eastern conflicts involving Israel are relevant for another reason too - one of the main "taking the gloves off" moves pro-Russian commentators are constantly going on about is striking decision making centers, and yet we have a thorough demonstration of several years of the Israelis doing exactly that, only to end up with Iran and Hezbollah still standing and fighting them. So, no, decapitation strikes are not some magical kung fu technique that disables the enemy.
This is just the nature of modern war - you're going to get hit. The post-WW1 "bomber will always get through" theory was false at the time, because in reality the aircraft technology of the period couldn't really facilitate that - but now, the technology of drones and missiles has gotten to the point where they will actually always get through. In a modern war, against a country of sufficient size and economic development, you're going to be bombed - if the US, the country which led the way on air interdiction and developed an entire doctrine around it, didn't manage to successfully run an interdiction campaign against Iran, then no-one's going to be able to, except maybe China in some years. It's just the material reality - Western military commentators are the ones deluding themselves that there's some magical tech widget they could invent to prevent this, but it would behoove us to not fall into that same pattern. They were the ones who spent several years going "well, drones don't actually change the game in a war against a real country (read: "not slavic"), since our superior airforce would just bomb out the enemy's ability to launch drones!" - and, well, the US tried that, and failed thoroughly. There's no magical solution, you just have to accept that you're going to get bombed, and build up the capacity to bomb the enemy even more.
If I look for population pyramids from Ukraine, I only find things like this or this. They don't show a very big difference between men and women in the military age group, which you would expect. There are even slightly more men than women! I suspect this isn't true, but propaganda graphs. Do you know of an article where you could find the real effect of the war on the male population?
The trouble with Ukraine is they haven't done a census in 25 years (quarter of a century!) - all population data since is based on extrapolation, and is likely highly inaccurate. For example, that wiki article cites a United Nations Population Fund figure of 37.9 million in 2024, and if you open the link up now it somehow states a higher 39 million for 2025, while the Ukrainian deputy minister of social policy gave a figure of below 25 million, which is a pretty substantial gap. The UN's site doesn't seem to clarify if they're counting just territories controlled by Ukraine here or also including the now-Russian-controlled land (while the deputy minister's figure is specifically about Ukrainian-held territory), but even if they are counting people now in Russia, it's highly unlikely that that could explain a gap of over 10 million between the figures.
Casualty figures released by the Ukrainian government are also complete bogus, so we can't rely on those. What we do have to go on is:
I'm not sure there's a single concrete article on the topic though, unfortunately.
Thanks!
I agree with most of what you said but not this:
I mean this isn't the same at all? Hezbollah and Iran are popular governments/movements. They have broad support of their people. The Kiev regime is an illegitimate Nazi coup regime that came to power via western meddling, its people are not at this point to my knowledge as die-hard Nazi fanatic as the leadership. Yes there are lower level Nazis and you won't collapse it but they don't have the same broad base of support as far as I know as Hezbollah and Iran do among the people in their areas. If you kill off 70% of the western comprador Nazi leadership you're putting a real dent in western control and Nazi comprador control of the country.
Decapitation strikes don't work against broadly popular movements that are more than a small amount of top guys holding it all together. That's the lesson to take away.
I think the real problem is the US built Ukraine deep secret bunkers and that is where the real decisions are made. There was a NYT puff piece about them traveling to one such location, very well hidden. So bombing SBU headquarters would probably most days just kill a bunch of lower ranking Nazi clerks who do deserve it but the problem I think is Russia hasn't been able to locate these hidden bunkers and if they have they don't have weapons capable of penetrating and destroying them like the US due to mainly using long range missile and drones due to not having air dominance and uncontested ability to move in and bomb (not even to the extent the US did in Iran).
Fact is Russia HAS done decapitating strikes. That one meeting of officers including western ones that some Ukrainian leaked to them at a hotel or something, it was a conference and they hit it hard and killed a bunch of them. They do it as much as they're able and as much as it makes a difference. They just understand that the targets they have like SBU HQ probably do more harm than good to bomb because it drives the enemy underground. Right now their intelligence can track people moving from that building and maybe hope one day to get lucky with one of them slipping up and leading them someplace more interesting.
Also "decision making centers" as I understand it has mostly been a veiled threat to the west. Because the real decision making centers are in London, Poland, Germany. And Russia is constantly doing this dance with the EU NATO that they're becoming members to the conflict, they are members to the conflict, they're totally legitimate targets and Russia wants to bomb them. But Russia isn't willing to risk a wider war by bombing Rammstein airbase in Germany or Mi6 HQ in London though hitting either with an Oreshnik would assuredly seriously hamper the Ukrainian war by hampering intelligence supply, killing analysts and throwing their enemy into disarray. It's just that the consequences leading from that of the west getting directly involved or otherwise upping the ante (giving Ukraine a nuke) doesn't warrant that risk.
Hence the campaign of attrition. Russia said from the beginning it understands it is essentially at war with NATO and that it is prepared for the war to go on as long as needed. Russia knows the head of the snake isn't in Ukraine which is why it said demilitarization is the name of the game. They're just going to grind the fighting capacity of Ukraine to oblivion until Ukrainians themselves refuse to fight any more. Decapitation strikes on any meaningful command structures aren't really an option.
Fair critique, I agree that the Kiev government is not quite comparable to Hezbollah and Iran. However, I also feel that the regime having come to power through a coup doesn't necessarily equate to them being that unpopular in the current territories of Ukraine - they were unpopular in 2014, so unpopular in fact that this led to a civil war. Except what that means is that the people who actually hate the government and disagree with the Ukrainian nationalist cause basically ejected themselves from the country, leaving the population in the remaining territories much more supportive of the government. And with the Russian invasion, what was left of the pro- or at least neutral-on-Russia populace either became part of Russia, with the integration of the separatist republics, or because they just fled there as refugees, or they fled to some other countries altogether - leaving the population actually left in Ukraine even more pro-government than before.
So, I don't think the government is really that unpopular in practice - or at least not unpopular enough to see extensive organized resistance from the population. This has been changing though, with there being more and more attacks on "recruitment" (that is, kidnapping) officers, but it still seems like Ukraine's pretty far from any sort of revolt against the current government, unfortunately - and unpopularity doesn't mean much if the populace isn't willing to actually take any sort of action, Western governments are consistently unpopular among their own populations and yet this does not lead to much meaningful change in the policies being carried out.
Partially because they can't push without a mass mobilization, which puts the popularity of the war (which is popular to the majority of Russians, at least at the moment) in jeopardy, partially because any kind of offensive, even an overwhelming one, is an extremely risky gamble, that even if successful will lead to the death of tens of thousands, partially because much like for the West, Ukraine at this point is a testing ground for modern military tech and tactics, which Russia can then use to improve their military capabilities for any potential outright conflict with NATO, and partially because spooking the Europeans into outright mobilization, as opposed to trickling in their mentally ill and ideologically motivated, isn't really on the Russian to-do list, they would rather go back to trading with them, even if that will never happen.
Mostly however, it is because it doesn't as actually affect anything anymore, particularly those in the Russian oligarchy. It's like the same reason we won't stop fighting wars, they do not affect those in charge. There was a short period of time when that wasn't true, when Ukraine had a military force that could contest Russia and threaten their government, but that likely hasn't been the case anymore for over a year now. Better to keep the front lines open, minimize having to deal with outright partisians.
We'll see if it works out for them, if it becomes more like an infected wound as opposed to a quarantine.
I assume you mean in terms of immediate physical harm? Because wars under capitalism are manifestations of infighting amongst the bourgeoisie. This war is only happening because of the effects Ukraine fully joining NATO would have had on the Russian bourgeoisie. Likewise, the western bourgeoisie is only interested in Ukraine because of the position of vulnerability it would immediately put the "axis of resistance" into.
The ruling classes are very much affected by competition and conflict.
As I said before, there was a period of time when that was the case, right around when Russia launched their massive two-pronged offensive, when Ukraine, if it had massed even 70% of it's armed forces at the time, could have not only threatened Crimea (which the Russian bourgeois absolutely care about) but even threaten the civil war to spill into Russia itself, which would delegitamize bourgeois rule in Russia. Hence the need launch said offensive.
However, that time has passed for awhile now. Ukraine is a shambling zombie state, propped up by Western governments, lacking any real substantial offensive capabilities. It is no longer a threat, militarily or economically. And while they are no longer a threat to the Russian bourgeois, they do provide them with other opportunities.
As Epstein said, there is often more opportunity in collapse than in growth.
Ukraine and Ukrainians themselves aren't a threat. But Ukraine is being used as a proxy by the west. And it is the west that is pushing for Ukraine to continue the war. And it is the west that is threatening Russia via Ukraine.