Image is from this Bloomberg article, depicting world oil inventories plunging towards the operational floor at which pipelines and refineries cease operating, which is expected to occur in September at current rates.
A pretty short preamble below, in spoiler tags.
summary
The conflict continues to be kept at a relatively low level despite Iran's fiery encounters with US destroyers. I think it's only becoming increasingly obvious that the US is trying to cobble together some major clandestine operation mixing special forces, the air force, and naval destroyers to either seize Iranian uranium, take control of Iranian seaports, or both. Given a) how the Istafan op went, b) further Iranian preparations around sensitive sites, and c) a seeming strengthening of Iranian air defense around the Persian Gulf (multiple drones and manned aircraft have squawked emergency codes and potentially been shot down over the last few weeks), I find it difficult to imagine this operation fulfilling its objective, and even if did somehow work, why the removal of uranium would necessitate Iran ending the blockade and the war. On that note, I've seen reports that Iran is saying that if the US attacks their oil tankers again, they will resume firing on US military bases.
Additionally, Aragchi has stated that not only has Iran's missile/launcher stockpiles not gone down from pre-conflict, it has actually increased by 20%. This is unsurprising given the total war that Iran is now in; all resources within reason must now be funnelling towards drone and missile production.
Atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon are continuing. The toll that FPV drones are taking on the common Zionist soldiery are quickly becoming apparent, as we are receiving ever-increasing amounts of footage of vehicles and gatherings of soldiers being struck by Hezbollah's drones. The casualty situation is, as expected, being hidden, but any kind of serious occupation of even the border villages of southern Lebanon (let alone up to the Litani) seems unsustainable.
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The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Partially because they can't push without a mass mobilization, which puts the popularity of the war (which is popular to the majority of Russians, at least at the moment) in jeopardy, partially because any kind of offensive, even an overwhelming one, is an extremely risky gamble, that even if successful will lead to the death of tens of thousands, partially because much like for the West, Ukraine at this point is a testing ground for modern military tech and tactics, which Russia can then use to improve their military capabilities for any potential outright conflict with NATO, and partially because spooking the Europeans into outright mobilization, as opposed to trickling in their mentally ill and ideologically motivated, isn't really on the Russian to-do list, they would rather go back to trading with them, even if that will never happen.
Mostly however, it is because it doesn't as actually affect anything anymore, particularly those in the Russian oligarchy. It's like the same reason we won't stop fighting wars, they do not affect those in charge. There was a short period of time when that wasn't true, when Ukraine had a military force that could contest Russia and threaten their government, but that likely hasn't been the case anymore for over a year now. Better to keep the front lines open, minimize having to deal with outright partisians.
We'll see if it works out for them, if it becomes more like an infected wound as opposed to a quarantine.
I assume you mean in terms of immediate physical harm? Because wars under capitalism are manifestations of infighting amongst the bourgeoisie. This war is only happening because of the effects Ukraine fully joining NATO would have had on the Russian bourgeoisie. Likewise, the western bourgeoisie is only interested in Ukraine because of the position of vulnerability it would immediately put the "axis of resistance" into.
The ruling classes are very much affected by competition and conflict.
As I said before, there was a period of time when that was the case, right around when Russia launched their massive two-pronged offensive, when Ukraine, if it had massed even 70% of it's armed forces at the time, could have not only threatened Crimea (which the Russian bourgeois absolutely care about) but even threaten the civil war to spill into Russia itself, which would delegitamize bourgeois rule in Russia. Hence the need launch said offensive.
However, that time has passed for awhile now. Ukraine is a shambling zombie state, propped up by Western governments, lacking any real substantial offensive capabilities. It is no longer a threat, militarily or economically. And while they are no longer a threat to the Russian bourgeois, they do provide them with other opportunities.
As Epstein said, there is often more opportunity in collapse than in growth.
Ukraine and Ukrainians themselves aren't a threat. But Ukraine is being used as a proxy by the west. And it is the west that is pushing for Ukraine to continue the war. And it is the west that is threatening Russia via Ukraine.