Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.
Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.
All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.
However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
one uncomfortable fact for hexbears is the performance of F35s over the last couple years. while they are undoubtedly expensive boondoggles and part of the US's military spending shakedown, they really do seem to be effective. thus far we have seen stealth aircraft consistently be able to deliver strikes without combat losses. I welcome correction from marmite or tervell or others who know things, but bloated as it may be, the F35 program does seem to actually function.
Non-stealth jet combat losses have also been minimal. It's due to comprehensive military superiority in many fields, not specific wunderwaffes.
Stealth planes are not able to fly freely through enemy airspace without having the way paved for them first. We have seen how the US and Israel use saboteurs and standoff weapons before sending in manned jets.
j35 save me
It'll be the J-36 or the J-50 that do the saving; those are China's two sixth generation fighters that will be deployed in the coming years. Both were already observed flying and operation as of late 2024. Meanwhile the F-47, America's first sixth generation fighter, which is not scheduled to have its first flight until 2028. Given it's Boeing (!!!) that timeline will almost certainly be pushed back. China fielding dozens of sixth gen fighters whilst the United States' is still in the design phase would be a massive gamechanger.
Per https://theaviationgeekclub.com/heres-why-why-china-is-poised-to-beat-the-us-to-field-a-sixth-generation-fighter-first/
Yeah the F35 costs like ten times what it should but it is still unfortunately an effective weapons platform against all but thee most advanced of anti-air defenses (and honestly that remains to be tested, could be effective against them as well!).
Sure, but they also have not been used against any enemies with anything close to near-peer anti-air defense systems. They haven't even been used in Ukraine AFAIK.
There are only two of those
There's more than two countries that have near-peer anti-air defense systems, we are just only openly hostile to 2-3 of them. Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, the Taliban, and Venezuelan fisherman isn't much of a resume in terms of anti-air defense opponents, and frankly Iranian air defenses were that amazing, either. They at most had one S400 division and it's unknown whether or not they received any HQ-9s, as far as I know.
sure, but most US conflicts aren't against peer adversaries. they've only done 1 peer war in the last century, WW2.
15-40% of the time, depending on the variant, and going down very fast with the age of the airframes, with 7-year old planes being down to 10-15% (https://hexbear.net/post/6018345/6468713) - and the lower figures are for the carrier and VTOL variants, which are the ones key to US power projection (especially since, as recent events have shown, the US can no longer rely on being able to actually fly from its bases in a given region).
Now, this doesn't necessarily mean the F-35 is uniquely bad, but rather represents the inherent challenges of such a complex aircraft - maybe the Chinese stealth fighters would end up having similar readiness issues down the line too (although I think they at least are not committing the same boondoggle of wanting the same base aircraft to be developed into both ground-based and carrier-based variants, which seems to be one of the sources of the F-35s troubles). It's like the Tiger II tank - its reliability issues don't necessarily reflect on the German engineers being incompetent fools, but rather that the concept of the 70t heavy tank was inherently flawed (at least with the engine/suspension tech of the time), and no amount of engineering genius could get you around plain physical limitations. The American M26 Pershing (a heavy-later-redesignated-to-medium tank), at a much lighter 42t, also faced reliability issues, and while the Soviet IS-2, at 46t, was generally reliable, it had to make a lot of ergonomic sacrifices in order to bring the tank down to that weight, which led to a dreadfully slow rate of fire of like 1-1.5 rounds per minute (later improved to 2-3 with upgrades).
While stealth capability is certainly useful and does clearly work to some extent, the evaluation of technology in a material realm of limited resources should always include not just effectiveness, but also efficiency, that is, "was this the best way to spend these resources?". To go back to WW2 - strategic bombing causes a lot of debates, for a similar reason. It's not that it was ineffective - there's plenty of bombed out factories (and homes) to attest to that, but the actual results can start seeming somewhat less impressive when considering the literally thousands of destroyed airframes and tens of thousands of dead pilots sacrificed to achieve them. Would the Allies have perhaps been served better making more tanks, or various other industrial outputs? Now, counterfactuals like this are never going to have clear answers, but they're still important to think about. In the F-35s case, would the US, perhaps, have been better served by going the Russian path, and pouring those billions of dollars into missile development?
For example, here's an article (from just a couple days before the war began), not specifically about the F-35 but tackling some such questions:
We'll see if the article's last guess will turn out to be right.
The thing is that the F-35 is not just stealth, it's a force multiplier across all fields. The F-117 was just stealth. This means that missions which would take dozens or even hundreds of aircraft in the past, depending on how far you go back, can be done today with a handful of F-35s. Long essay incoming.
It's AN/APG-81 AESA radar is no longer just a radar, it's an array that can both detect aircraft, ground targets, do recon with SAR imagery, and jam emitters/radars, all at the same time. The DAS can track ballistic missile launches from over 1300km away and geolocate the launch location, and provides a 360° passive warning/threat detection system for incoming missiles and aircraft. The EOTS is a very high quality electro optical sensor that can pick out individual windows on buildings and moving cars from over 40 miles away, and can be used as infrared search and track, for passive detection of fighter aircraft. With the SDB, an F-35 can carry 8 individual 250lb bombs with a hardened steel penetrator, for 8 individual hardened targets, from almost 70 miles away. There are laser guided, home in on jam/emitter, swarm capable and multimode seeker versions of this bomb all in the works. Not as capable at bunker busting as the 2000lb BLU-109, but for many targets, like a hardened aircraft shelter or runway, BLU-109 is overkill. And if needed, an F-35A and C can carry 2x BLU-109 internally. And with this air to ground loadout, it can still carry 2x AIM-120D AMRAAM air to air missiles internally, for self escort vs other fighters, these AIM-120D missiles have a range of over 125 miles in testing. The barracuda EW system can geolocate an emitter/radar 3x faster than the HTS system of the F-16CJ, then with "sensor fusion" the AN/APG-81 can jam it, and send a bunch of SDBs its way, all at the same time. While the F-35 can't fire anti radiation missiles yet (AARGM-ER is still in development), it will get that capability, a 180+ mile range anti radiation missile that flies at hypersonic speeds. And it can share all this information with other F-35s with the MADL datalink to work as a pack, significantly more capable than Link 16 and being integrated into other systems. For those without MADL, datalink translation gateways/layers like the E-11A BACN and U-2 can share some of this information with the rest, there's a reason 6/7 E-11As are currently in the Middle East.
There's a misconception that the F-22 is better than the F-35, that's only true for air to air combat and kinematic performance, super cruise, thrust vectoring, etc. For almost everything else, the F-35 is better. And it's not like the F-35 is some donkey which can't turn, it can do the fancy air show maneuvers which are not useful in combat like the cobra (search up F-35 high alpha testing on YouTube). While it's not a "dogfighter", it's still very capable at basic fighter maneuvers with its high alpha capabilities, high off boresight missiles and DAS providing a 360° view.
All this means that the F-35 can do self escort strikes, minimal to no EW or fighter support required. The US started the war against Iran with 12 F-22s and 12 EA-18s with NGJ pods, that's it. A dozen planes for fighter escort, another dozen for EW. That's all that was needed because the 90 F-35s that were present can escort themselves. In Iraq, the US sent over 70 F-15Cs for fighter escort! This comes back to what I said in the beginning, a mission in the Gulf war or Iraq war that would've required 4x F-117s to hit 8 targets, a whole fighter escort, and EW support, a SEAD package, over a dozen planes, can now be done by a single F-35. There were only 59 combat capable F-117s built. There are 102 F-35s in the Middle East currently.
For example this strike on Dezful airfield. In the past, 4x F-117s, fighter escort, EW support. Now, just 1 F-35 needed. The other strike on Hamedan would've required 6x F-117s and the whole support package. Now it's just 2x F-35s, with 4x SDB to spare.
That's not to say that shooting one down is impossible or anything like that, saying it's a some wonder weapon, it's not. But it's the most capable fighter aircraft currently flying. The program may have been a disaster and continue to be a disaster, but the aircraft itself is very good. It's why the US sells so many of them.
These super advanced aircraft are the closest thing yet to Armored Cores in their capacity
According to Ace Combat planes are just mecha anyways
Turns out the guy who said back in the day "The F-35 would lose to a MiG-21" was actually full of shit.