Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.
Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.
Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).
Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
With how much Russia is able to sustain toe-to-for attrition warfare against the west, imagine if the USSR, even in its late stages under Gorbachev, actually committed to a full scale attrition war against the West when it continued its imperialist aggressions. Actually took control of Europe by force and kept the West out of Eurasia and Africa.
Over half of Ukraine’s munitions and equipment is ex-soviet. Imagine if that was pointed West instead of East while we had the chance. The war would be a guaranteed victory.
I really think prioritizing unjust peace over anti-imperialist principled positions has been the most consistent mistake of the socialist projects thus far. War should not be shirked from over all else or we get Pez and Gorby and China’s foreign policy, which results in the West setting up as it sees fit to pick off the weakest links one by one.
The West's industrial and military prowess hasn't rotted away yet due to neoliberalism and can actually put up a fight.
The PRC would almost certainly have went to war with the SU, in which case it becomes a SU vs PRC war with the West marching into what's left of the SU after the SU defeats the PRC, so the West can triumph over both the SU and the PRC instead of just the SU.
There was a brief period of time when the PRC wouldn't have gone to the war with the SU in this hypothetical (ie when Stalin was still alive), but the SU was still recovering from WWII. This is basically "Stalin shouldn't have stopped at Berlin." The SU wouldn't get ICBMs until after Stalin's death, so even if Stalin didn't stop at Berlin, the US would still be around.
I guess there's also the very end of Gorbachev's reign, but the Soviet political class was thoroughly compromised by that point.
Realistically, in any scenario that the USSR continued West (ie. operation unthinkable but reversed) the US would have just dropped another nuke... and another nuke... and another nuke... until they won.
Russia had no strategic bombers, very rudimentary (basically zero) nuclear technology, and a very minor navy. The US would have happily deployed more nukes until one hit them back; they only started talking about peace after the Soviets surprised the world with their rapid nuclear weapons program in 1949. Even then, that's 4 years of a head start for American nukes.
"Stalin shouldn't have stopped at Berlin" is just the leftist version of "Hitler should've just taken Stalingrad." As far as defeating the center of capital, which was already in the US by the time of WWII, is concerned, there's 0% the Soviet Union (or any other country or honestly even an alliance of countries) can invade the US outside of maybe staging a massive land invasion from Mexico and that's assuming the US would do absolutely nothing while millions of soldiers are transported to northern Mexico somehow.
And this isn't even getting to the real reason why Stalin stopped at Berlin, which was so he could begin the march to Tokyo. The Red Army liberated Manchuria from fascist Japan and was poised to liberate Japan from fascism just like what they did to Germany before the US dropped the nukes. If the US didn't have nukes, you would just see the Red Army march into Tokyo, and since the US wasn't in position to properly invade Japan, there would be no need to divide Japan but have a singular socialist government like the GDR.
Alt history where the US didn't get nukes is just the same situation in Europe (with maybe the SU having more leverage that they can use like forcing the capital of West Germany to be Bonn instead of Berlin) while the entirety of East Asia is socialist. I seriously doubt even alt-history SU has it in them to liberate Eastern Europe, Eastern Asia, and Western Europe.
De-industrialization in the West was made possible by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the scenario you describe.
I agree; I think the understated strength of the US and its proxies is their ability to win peaces even after they lose wars, because their true strength isn't really military, it's economy and diplomacy and espionage. The US lost the Korean War, and what happened after? The US lost the Vietnam War, and what happened after? The US lost in Iraq, and what happened after? The US lost in Afghanistan, and what is happening after? Their victories take decades to undo, but their defeats eventually lead to victories by suffocating the victor until they accede to a neoliberal world order. You can fire guns at American soldiers, you can dig tunnels to ambush American squads, you might even shoot down American planes, but shooting the world reserve currency is much, much, much harder.
In essence: to go to war with America is dangerous, but to make peace with America is catastrophic. I think the decision for the USSR to not go to war against the US was good (as it averted a nuclear war), but I also think the Soviets were just a little too willing to go along with what the Americans clearly wanted to happen; a resource-intensive contest of proxy wars and espionage and counter-espionage and nuke-building that drained the USSR of resources and gradually isolated them. Abandoning Stalin was a critical error in that regard. It's my main worry in regards to China, too. Binding yourself to rules of engagement will make you weaker if the person you're fighting is willing to break those rules at a moment's notice for even the slightest gain, and the US (and its proxies, especially Israel) is absolutely willing to do that, including among the largest terrorist attacks in human history (e.g. the Lebanon pager terrorist attack). I worry that one day, the US will pull out some economic or diplomatic superweapon or new mechanism and all China will do is go "Hey! That's not fair!" and then proceed to not do anything in retaliation because doing so would break the rules, and if they go low then we go high!
I think many anti-imperialist leftists are increasingly coming to that conclusion. I recently finished reading Kyle Ferrana's "Why the World Needs China," and I can honestly say now that it's one of the most insightful leftist books published since Domenico Losurdo and Samir Amin. Before Ferrana goes on to answer nearly every major leftist question about China, its contradictions and the atrocity propaganda against it, the book first goes through an impressively cogent assessment on the material conditions of the contemporary world and where things stand. Ferrana's analysis concluded with the view that the "peace at all costs" principle of leftists and socialist states continuing up to today has been, in many ways, a consequential miscalculation. An excerpt:
Thank you for the recommendation, this was a very good read. I'll need to get this book.
All that, and the US has the perk of not having to fight wars on its own territories. The US fought and lost in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., but never on “American” land.
While these wars have destroyed millions of lives abroad, caused incalculable damage to land and infrastructure, the US public and its ways of life have hardly had a burden to bear
Nukes would have flown before the USSR set foot in the west
So be it. WW3 would bring about global communism. Instead we get the doomed ending with humanity consuming itself via fascism and climate collapse.
Is it really the doomed ending if much of the world isn't a smouldering radioactive crater?
Contrary to what Star Trek might say,I don't think any civilization is coming out of nuclear war,only world communism being made would be primitive communism, on the account of humanity being set back to the stone age,but this time with the same environmental conditions after a supervolcano the size of Yellowstone erupts coupled with the world being blanketed by deadly radioactivity
IMO the capitalist victory also means climate change became unavoidable. Civilization will be destroyed for thousands of years if temperature goes over 5 degrees. By 3 degrees half the population is already dead and the feedback loop makes that a done deal. We`re on path for earlier than 2050.
I respect the fear of nuclear anihilation, specialy if a Soviet boomer came to me and explained how it felt living through it. But then we are now "priviledged" to experience the unique period of human mass extentinction from climate change caused by the capitalist victory in the cold war. Its ironic yes, also sad. If given the choice I`d rather echo the sentiment of war and struggle than the upcoming hell.
People will say humanity will go on regardless but who cares IMO, nihilism is only as powerful as you make it. In the long term the Sun will also engulf the solar system and destroy the Earth too.
I'd still take my chances with climate change over nuclear war
The question then is at what point do you think the soviet people would've been ok with invading westward and not revolt, Gorby era is probably out of the question in that case.
The classic case is 1918 instead of signing brest-litovsk, but that's a well trodden debate and soviet industry wasn't what it later became yet.
I get what you are saying and agree mostly, however I think it is important to understand that war is generally deeply unpopular with working class people (who aren’t fascists and/or settlers with reactionary brainworms) and fundamentally, communism is the anti-war perspective. It is true that anti-imperlialist wars and wars of liberation ultimately serve the anti-war cause, but the people fighting and dying on both sides will be the working class- and unlike other systems, Socialist power and authority ultimately is rooted in the opinions of the masses… not to mention the toll the entire world pays from nuclear holocaust. The US unfortunately had unchallenged nuclear arms for a few critically important years. The first open conflict between the socialist world and capitalist class after WW2, The US war in Korea, for example, began a little less than a year after the Soviet Union got the bomb, and we don’t really know what would have happened if the USSR got atomic weapons later or not at all. Would the DPRK even exist?
The people generally are for a more aggressive stance, while it's the leaders who are capitulationist. Look at Armenia and Iran right now, there are protests and riots because they are pissed at the governments inaction and cowardice against western aggression. The people demand a stronger stance.
Yeah,on account of them being directly and consistently targeted by western or western aligned military action in the last couple of years
Now try telling the average Chinese person to prepare to live in brutal wartime rationing conditions,or god forbid, actually fight all over Asia to dismantle US hegemony and you'll see the ROC flag in Beijing in a week
Try telling a Vietnamese person to continue the work of the Vietcong, pick up a rifle and topple the governments of Thailand and the Philippines and you'll see that fugly yellow flag flying in Hanoi
Only places where that might get play are North Korea,where they were effectively bombed back a few centuries and are constantly threatened by the US that next time they'll "finish the job" and maybe Cuba, who already repelled multiple invasion attempts and is being strangled by the US embargo
Very few people alive in the DPRK were around for the Korean War. The reason the population remains committed to anti-imperialist principles even decades and generations later is because of a good education system and strong socialist public life. The extent to which the Chinese and USSR populations were too complacent to defend their comrades abroad is a failure of those educational systems.
China allied with the US to fight against the USSR - the country that kickstarted its industrial, scientific and technological base - not even 20 years after the US killed half a million People’s Volunteer Army during the Korean War.
Vietnam was carpet-bombed to hell by the US with millions and millions of casualties, and yet they are just as keen to serve the US empire today, and has been so since the end of the USSR.
This is just socialist countries using their understanding the material reality to do what they have to do to get ahead in the world, because they very consciously do not want to end up like the DPRK. To pretend otherwise is to assume that the leaders of these socialist countries are stupid.
No, the Korean people are committed to anti-Americanism because for most of them, it's personal. When a country kills 20% of a population, that means the 80% who survived will have relatives and friends from the 20% and will naturally harbor a hatred for the country that did the killing. Every Korean person will have a grandaunt who got bayoneted to death by US GIs or have a granduncle who died from a US bomb dropped on the house he was in. The extent of WPK political education is just saying, "'Letting bygones be bygones' is liberal hippy bullshit. The US hasn't done shit to make up for torturing your granddaddy and grandmama to death, so you should still hate the US. To not hate the US is to spit on their graves."
This was simply untrue for the Soviet Union or China. The genocidal freaks that the Soviet Union and China had to fight were Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan respectively and for both those fights, the US, for completely self-serving interests, wound up being the enemy of the enemy. This is why the CPC still memorize the Flying Tigers. The unfortunate truth is that there was a large percentage of the Soviet and Chinese population who harbor slight USphilia because they wouldn't have surviving relatives or wouldn't even be born if it wasn't for the US. Add in the usual suspects of liberal traitors and mentally colonized individuals and you now have a strata of USphilic people who will be baited by the US.
What about Vietnam? It may not have been quite 20% of the population (or more, as was the case in Korea) but still enough for everyone to have a relative murdered by the US and in even more recent of memory than for Korea. I honestly don't know, this is not so much a challenge as a question, but my understanding is that most Vietnamese are now rather ambivalent or even friendly with respect to their feelings about the US despite that. Of course there are other major differences between Vietnam and North Korea besides their educational systems, but surely what @[email protected] is saying plays a major role as well.
Doesn't that largely fall under the umbrella of "a good education system and strong socialist public life" though?