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submitted 5 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Image is of a solar park in Cuba, donated last year by China, sourced from this article.


To be honest, I don't have much to say about ongoing geopolitical events that hasn't already been said in previous threads (e.g. with India/Pakistan, Trump/Putin, and of course occupied Palestine), so this is more of a "news roundup" preamble for this week.

As we all know, the US (and the imperial core generally) has only three permitted international actions: sanctions, color revolution, and war. None of these have been going well lately, but sanctions are in particularly dire straits right now. Three examples from the last week or so:

  • The EU is on its 17th sanctions package, apparently, which is surprising, as I thought they were on their 76th or something. It apparently targets Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers, but I don't think anybody actually gives a shit because we all know it won't achieve anything, so, moving on...

  • The head of Nvidia (as well as many others) have come out and said that the US chip export controls on China have failed, remarking that China's internal motivations to develop alternatives are strong and proceeding rapidly, especially as China's number of skilled scientists is only growing. Nvidia has said that they had a 95% share of China's AI chip market in 2020 or so, but now they only have 50%.

  • Lastly, an interesting one: Iran has received its first set of railway shipment of solar panels from China, and there is hope for accelerating shipments of even more products. Myself and many others have predicted a decoupling of Iran from the West and towards China and Russia (especially if any Western-built product could have Israeli devices implanted into them, such as with the pager terrorist attack on Lebanon's doctors), and having a strong link with China will be a necessary step for Iran and their allies to continue their offensives against Israel.


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] [email protected] 48 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

I have a question for the Military Knowers of the megathread.

Given that we know that Israel and the US have been generally unable to deal meaningful damage (as in damage that prevented reprisals; maybe some tunnels collapsed but clearly not critical damage) to the tunnel networks of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen through their bombing campaigns, is there any reason to believe that if Israel delivered an attack to Iran's nuclear facilities as they are saying they might do if the US-Iran talks collapse, they could actually militarily destroy their underground nuclear sites and/or missile launching sites?

Like, beyond the threat of the semi-mythical "all-out war" breaking out (that could then turn to nuclear war), and just talking the logistics of it, I'm having a difficult time holding in my mind the fact of "The US navy, perhaps the most powerful navy on the planet, was forced to retreat from Yemen despite an extended bombing campaign because they failed to stop them from launching missiles, and Yemen has been under a blockade and a genocidal war for basically the last ten years" but also the threat of "Israel is saying they will be able to beat Iran in a war, or at a minimum, take out their nuclear sites and somehow prevent True Promise 3 (when True Promise 1 and 2 were able to pierce through - with relative ease - the most dense air defense on the planet)."

As in, it's one thing to be like "oh, this bunker buster has a depth of X meters and Israel can launch Y of them from their planes (and Iran probably won't be able to shoot down those planes), they're this massive threat to the Resistance, they're so dangerous, look at them obliterate this children's hospital" but we've seen their use in like three other theaters of war (Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen) and they don't appear to have really achieved much? Hamas is still very much active and is honestly probably undefeatable (regardless of what Gideon Chariot stuff Israel will try and pull off as Solution #2942 to defeating Palestine before they fail and move onto Solution #2943) as long as they can get supplies smuggled in (presumably from Egypt) because their tunnel systems are so elaborate and reinforced and the IDF is too cowardly to try and meaningfully infiltrate them, and Gaza is one of (if not the) most bombed and bunker-busted places on the planet. The only definite "achievement" I can assign to them is murdering Nasrallah, but I don't know what the depths of those tunnels were, and that wasn't, presumably, as large or as deep a target as what Iran has achieved.

[-] [email protected] 37 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

Israel don't have the conventional munitions launched from aircraft to do deep damage to Iran's underground facilities, which is why Netanyahu was talking about commando raids and so forth. Israel fundamentally lack this capability. They could carry out a weeks long campaign repeatedly bombing tunnel entrances and attempts to rebuild them making operations difficult, but that's different from destroying the facility itself.

As for what could be done, even though it's unlikely:

On the conventional front, what Israel could do is take a page from South Korea's latest ballistic missile, and rig up one of their Jericho III ICBMs with a very large conventional bunker buster warhead and use it over the much shorter range towards Iran. The South Korean Hyunmoo-5 is a 300-3000km range, 36 ton two stage solid fueled ballistic missile (the same size and weight as a Minuteman III ICBM) with an 8-9 ton "bunker buster' warhead that can penetrate over 100 meters.

On the nuclear front, a very low yield "bunker buster" warhead delivered by a Golden Horizon air launched, maneuvering re entry vehicle capable ballistic missile, could be a tempting option for Israeli commanders. The planned, but eventually cancelled, W-86 nuclear Earth Penetrating Warhead (EPW) for the Pershing-II could penetrate 60m of soil before exploding and had a 1 kiloton, or even sub 1 kiloton, yeild. This low yield, and underground detonation with little (or no) radiation and limited fallout effects might lower the nuclear threshold, especially when striking a nuclear facility where some level of radiation leakage is to be expected. Military leaders might be encouraged to use the weapon, whereas they would be reluctant to use the larger yield nuclear weapons.

Another option would be a symbolic strike campaign at a nuclear site where the air defences are in a weakened state, such as Natanz. Damage would be minimal to none, but the purpose would be essentially saying that Israel can strike here.

I don't think Israel will go it alone on a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities however, options are too limited and they'd want US support for a protracted engagement. If anything, the option of symbolic strikes on Natanz is the most likely if Israel does decide to act.

The difference between Iran and Yemen is Iran has a more developed economy and military, and everyone knows where the key sites are located, key countervalue and counterforce targets, the nuclear facilities and missile cities, air defence sites and military bases and so forth. Yemen on the other hand is one of the poorest countries in the world, and aside from a few key well known countervalue targets like airports and seaports, and counterforce targets like the Amran tunnels, which the US and Israel did bomb extensively, there's very little intelligence on exactly where everything is. After that, it becomes a very expensive game of whack a mole. Trying to stop the launch of solid fueled ballistic missiles which can be wheeled out of a tunnel, tent or building anywhere in Yemen and fired in minutes is not feasible, it's just SCUD hunt 2.0. However Iran is also not prepared to fight like Yemen or endure what the Yemeni people have endured. Iran will stop fighting long before that. Iran has a lot more to lose than Yemen has.

There will be no preventing Operation True Promise III if Israel attack Iran, it would have to be weighed in any potential calculations. If Iran chooses countervalue targets as part of such an operation, the result would be devastating for Israel and Israel would likely respond in kind with countervalue strikes, instead of just strikes on nuclear facilities.

As for where Israel is currently, I don't think I can sugarcoat it. Hezbollah still hasn't carried out any military operations in months, even after the expiration of the ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel launching Gideon's Chariots. Syria is gone, led by ex AQ Al Jolani. The resistance operations carried out by Hamas, while brave, are not near what is needed to push back on Israel given the extent of what is planned under Gideon's Chariots. I think over two thirds to three quarters of Gaza is currently under IDF/IOF evacuation orders and Israel (with US PMCs) are the sole distributors of aid. The situation is bleak, Rafah essentially no longer exists anymore. I think this is why we see so much criticism of Israel from Europe, because now that they know the end result of Israel taking over Gaza is inevitable, they are free to criticize and speak as it won't change anything, in typical European virtue signalling and uselessness.

[-] [email protected] 19 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

The resistance operations carried out by Hamas, while brave, are not near what is needed to push back on Israel given the extent of what is planned under Gideon's Chariots.

Perhaps I’m being overly optimistic, but it’s worth mentioning that Qassam et al are still carrying out operations against the IOF in these zones, even though this gets zero coverage in the media (I know you know this, just mentioning it for everyone). Is it enough to stop Gideon’s Chariots? I don’t know. But if I again want to find something optimistic to hold on to, it’s not like the IOF didn’t give their all back before the ceasefire. The IOF made a huge effort to destroy the Resistance and were not able to. Can Gideon’s Chariots be THAT much more intense compared to when “Israel” tried and failed to achieve their objectives?

[-] [email protected] 32 points 4 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Iran has underground missile cities and nuke cities that are deeper and more sophisticated than anything in Gaza or Yemen. Anything less than nuclear weapons will not be able to destroy them. The channel I linked has a large selection of videos on various different missile cities that we know about. This one is about the Karkas centrifuge site.

The enemies needed how many bunker buster to assasinate Sayed Hassan Nasrallah? And his base in Dahiyeh was not even that deep, all things considered.

"Bombing nuclear sites" would actually mean bombing power plants, sanitation systems, and other infrastructure to attack the people, which is the same thing the empire has always done.

[-] [email protected] 17 points 4 days ago

The enemies could drop bombs on Yemen and Lebanon and Gaza but they will never be able to fly so freely over Iranian airspace. That severely limits the types of weapons they can use and the damage they can inflict. JDAM cant even fly 100km.

Unless the US launches an ICBM they aren't getting the kinds of ordinance required to do that kind of damage all the way into the Alborz.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

[-] [email protected] 17 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

they could/would collapse entrances, nuclear facilities are not 1 man tunnel, i think it's feasible to do, cause structural unsoundness hits differently when it's a building/series of rooms with columns and stuff + dust entrance in some delicate manufacturing line fucks all of it. but further action depends on enjoying-spouse-infidelity level of iran itself (like the pro lib move would be to say "that's done than, invest in us, daddy"

hypothetically speaking, electromagnetic or laser assisted primo nuclear separation device is not that big (they can give pure u235, but veryyyyy slowly, less than gram a day). iran likely dismantled them (cause they are scary and are explicitly for weapon purpose), but still, they could make them again. think scientists isntreal merked ~10 years ago were roughly in that area, so isntreal seems convinced lately it's not a problem, maybe they are that infiltrated, maybe they are that reckless.

what's i'm saying is, any person with billion of dollars, vacuum pumps, lasers, copper and uranium can separate isotopes, it's a ridiculous pretense. they could do it with ~~a box of scraps~~ rinky dinky tech of 1943, it's miles easier now

[-] [email protected] 7 points 3 days ago

So theoretically, the conventional way, the u.s military relies essentially on utilizing long-rage armaments launched by Sea-Air-Land outside of the maximum range of opfor forces to retaliate against which are then guided in by usaf stealth aircraft or special operations units penetrating the opfor defensive lines with the purpose of eliminating forward air defense networks and creating a more safer avenue of approach for conventional forces to penetrate.

this post was submitted on 26 May 2025
130 points (99.2% liked)

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