chapotraphouse

IMO points #1 and #2 are key reasons why #3, as you describe it (with appropriate skepticism) isn't going to happen. The parasitism of deeply established rentiers (of industry) and the hyper-financialization is not going to come to a halt, not without what can only be described as a death to the system (it could be resuscitated after- but all these contradictions would frankly need to be purged, a politically painful and systematically tumultuous process, to allow for such developments).

The world reserve currency status and the consequences of its decades-long abuse/"cheap money" (or rather, toilet paper money, the ubiquitousness and cartoonish levels of debt and speculation, etc) is also a noose around AmeriKKKa's neck in this regard. There is no soft landing, and there will be no reining in the system, not without the destruction of the wealth of the capitalist classes and of the global economic system the US has made itself the center of (though it is unsustainable in its own right).

As for #4... sure, I agree entirely. And thus personally I hope to get the hell out of the imperial cores before the death camps and/or pogroms begin, if they do. But thankfully however, the rest of the world- the overwhelming majority of the world- is moving past the west's hateful, racist, genocidal, and deranged system, and will leave them in the dust if they cannot progress forward (IMO the west will not- not for a long time, anyways, the social, ideological, institutional, etc. contradictions of 500 years, and the contradiction of settlerism in particular, shall be a hurdle that will take a very long time to be overcome, if ever- though I do expect it will happen eventually in the long run).

The west will embrace fascism, and likely will try to take all the rest of humanity down with it if they can't keep them as their slaves. It sounds dismal, but that's my expectations for the western regimes, anyways- whether the masses, or even those within the system with the decency or self-preservation to resist and break free from this course, will be able to recognize in full just what path they are headed down and prevent it is another matter.

But- in response to #4- my answer is- "yeah, so what?" Not to be callous, but this is the path these societies were almost certainly going to go down from the beginning; this is the great hurdle they must overcome (that they created for themselves). I am not disregarding the suffering that it will cause (which I will likely also face, and so will many of my loved ones). But this is still progress of an overwhelmingly positive nature for the rest of the world- just because the slave masters (the "international community") might tear themselves apart and get homicidal, does not mean that the slaves (the overwhelming global majority) should wait on their liberation and the improvement of their lives till it is convenient; it does not mean that the global south should continue bending over to western parasitism (which is in fact becoming more and more deranged and intolerable, as shown with their attempts at "Ukrainizing" countries like the Philippines and Armenia and their march to WW3, with their blatant genocide in Gaza and their constant provocations and meddling reaching a fever pitch across the globe, their attempts to destroy the peace, prosperity, and development of ASEAN, of Africa through its trade and cooperation with BRICS, etc...).

If the west wishes to go fascist (which I don't doubt they most likely will), if they want to destroy all of humanity if they cannot re-establish global slavery, unquestioned imperialism, and omnipresent hegemony as they desire- that's a hurdle that humanity will have to face. And humanity, the collective humanity, will either win (whether those in the west wish to consider themselves a part of it, or bring destruction upon their heads to the bitter end is another matter) or go extinct, but either way the ordeal will have been- if not necessary, absolutely inevitable (because the west and even the western masses, if they play along with their regimes, will have done everything to ensure it was so).

The world will free themselves from AmeriKKKa and the league of western imperialists- they will free themselves from the petrodollar's parasitism, from western enforced monopolies, from theft and coercion, from the US' salami-slicing tactics of moving ever-closer to a "winnable nuclear war" and the effective genocide or enslavement of the entire planet. Whether the western populations are ready for such a change is irrelevant, and they can either get with the program (and they will have every chance of doing so- right up until the call comes to launch the nukes) or die rejecting the most basic decency and humanity.

That's my take on it, anyways. All the west, the "garden peoples," have left (as a simplification- they have much, but their system has reached the end of the road and they can only try to threaten the world to prevent it from moving further) is terrorism. And all the west, the "garden," can accept, is the complete subservience and enslavement of the world, to return to the unipolar moment and not only that, but worse- to gradually balkanize and de-industrialize all the nations of the global south, so as to never allow such a challenge to their "garden" to arise again.

All they offer is terrorism, and their reward, to those who submit- as Russia's experience post-dissolution, Ukraine's current experience, etc. and that of countless others have shown- the reward for submission is slavery and death, the loss of everything of value and of all hope. The global south (and the masses of the west, if they can get their heads out of their asses to realize it) truly has nothing to lose but their chains.