this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2024
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Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.


We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.

The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.

Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 90 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (9 children)

Russian telegram:

Iranian agency ShafaqNA: More than 20 F-35 aircraft of the Israeli Air Force were hit during the missile strike of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the territory of the Jewish state.

More from Telegram:

Iranian media claim that 20 F-35 fighters were destroyed by hypersonic missiles during strikes on Israeli air bases.

It was also claimed that a concentration of Israeli armored vehicles in the Gaza Strip was destroyed (the IDF likes to display its equipment in large groups).

Iran emphasizes that it specifically targeted IDF military facilities and gas platforms, so there will not be a large number of civilian casualties.

Aside from the fact of strikes on air bases, it is currently difficult to assess the extent of the actual damage. It will be interesting to see satellite images of the facilities if some Western company publishes them.

Iran will naturally exaggerate the effectiveness of the strikes. Israel, on the contrary, will understate and emphasize the work of the air defense. At the same time, the parties will continue to exchange threats of new strikes.

More:

Iran informed the US and Russia of its intentions before striking Israel. No civilian targets were hit.

[–] [email protected] 67 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Omg please be true lol. That's ~$820M in planes.

[–] [email protected] 52 points 2 months ago

More important than the cost is the time needed to replace them.

[–] [email protected] 65 points 2 months ago (6 children)

More than 20 F-35 aircraft of the Israeli Air Force were hit during the missile strike of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the territory of the Jewish state.

I doubt this is true, I imagine that they'd have sent most of them up into the sky to prevent this from happening. The airbases might be cooked but the number of planes hit must be like single-digit if it's not outright zero if Israel is even remotely competent (I know that's a hard task to ask of them but still).

[–] [email protected] 44 points 2 months ago

Per wikipedia they only have 36 F-35s in Israel.

[–] [email protected] 39 points 2 months ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 42 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Got bricked by windows update

[–] [email protected] 23 points 2 months ago (1 children)

ChatGPT pornbot control module was out of sync

[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 months ago

How are they gonna get the cum out without that module?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Still love the ~~truck~~ plane though

[–] [email protected] 30 points 2 months ago

pilot was hungover and couldn't find their keys

[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 months ago

Presumably 18 of them self-destructed attempting an emergency takeoff.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 2 months ago (1 children)

How long does it take them to sortie all the planes tho? If it takes more than the flight time of the misiles some will be sitting ducks.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Except Iran informed the US of the attack, which is effectively giving Israel a heads up. They had plenty of time to get the planes up due to this and I think next time Iran needs to keep its mouth shut

[–] [email protected] 24 points 2 months ago (1 children)

How much of a heads up do they 'need' to give?

[–] [email protected] 25 points 2 months ago (1 children)

None. Hit them quietly in the middle of the night with hypersonics with no warning. Then do it again every night

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I mean yeah, that's what they should definitely do, but is there some rule they're trying to follow? I mean, why are they doing it? The US' intentions and threats are already clear, it's not like giving them a heads up is going to stop the retaliation if one is coming.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 2 months ago (2 children)

What's been made clear again the last couple of days, is that it is a priority for Iran to go through the proper diplomatic channels before resorting to military means. Even if it is likely to get them nowhere (I.e. holding off on retaliation for the promise of a ceasefire).

They want to convey that they are rational and principled when they commit to violence. They give a heads-up precisely because it won't stop a retaliation. They don't want an all-out war but they have to respond.

The primary audience doesn't even have to be Israel and the US, but also the rest of the world: Iran is better because it has justice on it side. Iran holds itself to a higher standard and acts accordingly.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 months ago

This makes sense, but equally I think if you're on the world stage and not a complete stooge for American and Israeli propaganda, you surely know who is better. And Iran must know that the west is going to twist the narrative in whatever way they wish regardless of the outcome or how many courtesies they offer.

But of course I will always understand the need to show whatever caution you can to avoid being flattened by a bully as big as the US, even if that caution is grasping at straws.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It seems to me it has more of a demoralizing effect on the axis of resistance and just stalls more time for Palestinians to die

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The resistance knows better than us what is at stake and what an all-out war would look like. Although it almost certainly wouldn't entail less Palestinians dying.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

There’s going to be war. The Iranian President certainly didn’t know better than us, he got strung along by American promises of sanctions relief and lied to and fell for it. Shit like this demoralizes the fighters dying to destroy Israel, when Iran elects a pro-west leader who acts in this stupid, selfish way completely in denial.

Luckily it seems the more grounded and revolutionary portions of the Iranian state have wrested control of the situation back. Pez is a fucking liability though. I hope he takes a helicopter ride through the mountains.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Personally, I'm getting pretty tired of people who most likely don't live in the region criticising the parties doing the most to fight back against Israel for not doing enough because of some bad news of the day.

You don't know what's going on in Iranian government circles either and you've just come to this interpretation based on personalities.

What I'm saying is that there is still value in pursuing a ceasefire even if you believe there's little chance of success.

Even if you believe war is inevitable, the Israeli position is being attrited more and more the longer all-out war doesn't break out. But history is always still contingent and it would be irresponsible towards all the people living under your governance to just jump in head first just because you believe it is inevitable. That's how fascists think.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Palestine is being extinguished the longer this goes on too, and a ceasefire just means yet more slow genocide of Palestine. There won't even be a "two state solution" via the diplomatic methods. The only way forwards is war and destruction of Israel. Pez was straight up wrong, he trusted the Americans and got burned. The change in Iran's posture after his election and appointment was very evident, it became much more reserved and unwilling to do any violent action. His delay led to further destruction of Hezbollah, Lebanon and Gaza.

Just like Putin was wrong not to invade for 8 years and believe in Minsk bullshit and let the Nazis become a massive military force. The people at the top of these militias and states need to stop believing western lies, because it's seriously Charlie Brown with the football sometimes. Lots of leaders of "our" bloc show a consistent pattern of not pulling the trigger when they need to and getting strung along by Western perfidy, and waiting until it's too late and it's massively worse. I'm free to make these criticisms because they are correct. I still support the anti-imperalist forces, however they aren't perfect and most of the leaders are complacent and need a kick in the ass. I like the parts of the Iranian state that are revolutionary and willing to fight and destroy Israel, not so much the liberal reformist parts constantly trying to sell sovereignty for sanctions relief.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 months ago

Makes sense to give Russia a heads up, especially as Russia has military assets nearby in Syria and Russia won’t squeal. They are likely trying to not alarm the Americans and shock them into fully joining the conflict, but like you said, this is more futile hope from Iran like Pez thinking he could actually get sanctions relief if he didn’t respond to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 months ago

That sucks then. Shouldn't do that.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

They still need a place to land eventually, and there's a pretty good chance the infrastructure the planes depend on is now a smoking crater. No runway, no fuel, no damn planes.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

What percentage of f-35s are out of commission at any given time? Pretty sure maintenance to ready for them is like 1:2. But 20 is too many considering they supposedly have 39 in total.

[–] [email protected] 52 points 2 months ago

Iranian media claim that 20 F-35 fighters were destroyed by hypersonic missiles during strikes on Israeli air bases.

Please be true

[–] [email protected] 40 points 2 months ago

the gas thing is confirmed by eye witnesses there's a giant fire over the sea

[–] [email protected] 40 points 2 months ago

More unverified rumors from Russian telegram (aka take it with a grain of salt):

There are reports of the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv being hit. However, there is currently no objective control footage.

It has also been reported that Israeli air defense positions were hit and that the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 air defense systems were destroyed.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 2 months ago

Hearing that Israel was able to intercept multiple missiles using f35s on the ground

[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Stop fucking informing the US. Why are they giving intel to their enemies?

[–] [email protected] 29 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Let them know the scale of the attack so Israel doesn't panic nuke them?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I think Israel is a long way off from that, that will be a last resort

[–] [email protected] 22 points 2 months ago

You can't give them the benefit of the doubt. Iran probably won't warn in the future, we'll see what happens.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 months ago

That would be the largest destruction of (partially) US planes since what, Vietnam? Smells fishy but I hope it's true

[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago

$80-$100 million each. This is literally direction action to prevent further genocide.