Thai household debt hits 86.7% of GDP as borrowing shifts to daily spending

Financialisation and it’s consequences etc etc

Thailand’s household debt has climbed to 86.7% of GDP, with fresh data pointing to a growing reliance on borrowing for day-to-day expenses as households struggle to cope with a fragile economic recovery.

According to the SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC), total household debt rose in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven primarily by an increase in personal consumption loans. Outstanding debt reached 12.72 trillion baht, up around 119 billion baht from the previous quarter.

The trend suggests that many households continue to rely on credit to support daily spending, as income recovery remains uneven and insufficient.

By contrast, housing loans saw only a slight increase and remained at relatively low levels, while several types of credit continued to contract. These included hire-purchase loans for cars and motorcycles, education loans and business loans, all of which declined further from the previous quarter.

A breakdown by lender shows that lending from private financial institutions has continued to shrink, reflecting cautious credit conditions. Commercial banks, credit card companies, leasing firms and personal loan providers, which together account for around half of total household lending, have tightened their lending practices.

Outstanding household loans from commercial banks fell by about 2% year on year, marking a seventh consecutive quarter of contraction. Lending by credit card, leasing and personal loan providers also declined by 0.6% year on year, extending a five-quarter downward trend.

China’s foreign trade surges 15% in Q1, marking fastest growth in five years

Record trade volumes driven by private enterprises and expanding partnerships with Belt and Road, ASEAN and Latin American economies

China’s foreign trade recorded a robust start to 2026, with total imports and exports reaching approximately US$1.63 trillion in the first quarter, representing a 15 per cent year-on-year increase and the fastest quarterly growth in nearly five years, reports CGTN, a partner of TV BRICS.

Wang Jun, Deputy Head of China's General Administration of Customs, stated that the data indicate a solid and positive start to the year, reflecting the resilience and vitality of China’s foreign trade.

Exports rose by 11.9 per cent compared with the same period last year, while imports grew at a faster pace of 19.6 per cent. The stronger expansion in imports underscores the country’s increasing domestic demand and its role in supporting global supply chains.

Thailand Faces ‘Worst Energy Crisis in History’ as Diesel Prices Treble

The Energy Ministry plans to reclaim refinery windfall profits to rescue the national Fuel Fund as global prices soar towards $300 per barrel.

…Prasert Sinsukprasert, permanent secretary for Energy, revealed on 3 April 2026 that global diesel prices have surged to nearly $300 per barrel—almost triple the standard rate of $92. The current volatility far outstrips the previous records set during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which saw prices peak at $150.

The crisis has left the state’s Fuel Fund nearly 50 billion baht in deficit. Although the fund holds a 150-billion-baht credit line, officials warn that at the current rate of depletion, these resources will last only another two months.

Clawing Back Windfall Profits

In response, the Ministry is negotiating with refineries to reclaim excess profits generated by the "War Premium" and inflated refining margins. Authorities are using a five-year average margin of 2.43 baht as a benchmark; any earnings significantly exceeding this are being eyed for redistribution to the public.

…The Ministry is considering whether to implement a general price reduction or provide targeted subsidies for the transport sector and vulnerable households.

The Phillipines amidst the war against Iran

The Epstein class war against Iran has showcased that many vassals in East Asia may also become targets in the fallout.

How exposed is Southeast Asia’s energy supply to the Iran war - who is most vulnerable and what’s next?

Long article but jist of it is:

The Philippines sources 96 per cent of its oil from the Persian Gulf, while Vietnam and Thailand buy roughly 87 per cent and 74 per cent from that region, respectively.

Thailand has more than 60 days of cover, Indonesia has no more than 21 to 25 days while Vietnam has less than 20 days of supply.

...Malaysia, meanwhile, remains a net exporter of oil and gas, providing some buffer against physical supply disruptions.

...Meanwhile, about 42.5 per cent of Singapore’s LNG imports came from Qatar last year, compared to 20.5 per cent of Thailand’s, according to data from Rystad. Both nations heavily rely on gas to keep their economies powered.

...The Philippines and Vietnam are “potentially staring down the barrel of unaffordable LNG supplies”, given that they are almost entirely dependent on spot markets, Reynolds said.

...When gas prices rise sharply, power utilities look for the cheapest available fuel to keep electricity flowing. In parts of Southeast Asia, coal remains that fallback option, especially in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.

...Currently though, power development plans in the region still envision a continued expansion of LNG-to-power facilities, sold by the global gas industry as a “bridge fuel” from coal to renewables, Reynolds said. Given the exposure to two major global conflicts in just the last four years, and the soaring gas prices as a result, such expansion is “fundamentally antithetical to energy security and resilience”, he said.

The Bangkok Bubble

see site for images

Since the American War on Vietnam, Bangkok has been a key hub for international journalists and academics in Southeast Asia. It offers modern infrastructure, easy travel, and a high quality of life, allowing them to chopper into the periphery and return home for drinks. These advantages foster a professional environment removed from the region it purports to cover. Western expatriates operate engulfed within a certain elite social and informational milieu, often resulting in confused, racially essentialist coverage aligning with the interests of the moneyed Bangkok elite.

This was clear during the past six months since the outbreak of the border war with Cambodia last year. This triggered a judicial coup against left-populist PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the installation of Ultra-Right leader Anutin Charnvirakul, the dissolution of parliament, and elections scheduled for February 8th. Foreign correspondents have seemed bemused, writing contradictory pieces. Analysis like BBC’s Jonathan Head’s, citing how much “we just don’t know,” boils mass class-struggle in a country of over 70 million down to petty elite factional rivalries (as is the case with the conflict with Cambodia) and often parrots the Thai elite line. In this instance, the English language coverage was generally anti-Shinawatra, anti-Cambodian and broadly pro-Thai state.

If ignorance is one component, another is racial essentialism. The BBC even published a guide to following racial generalisations in the region. Such analysis is chauvinistic, imperialist, and fundamentally racist. Chief BBC Correspondent Jonathan Head, based in Bangkok for 20 years, exemplifies this; of course he “just doesn’t know” what’s going on, he can’t even speak the language. Meanwhile, any Thai person somewhat versed in socio-political history knows how much we indeed do know, such as the history of the Thai military on the Cambodian border in the past 40 years and the patronage networks that developed as a result.

Unlike cleaner Singapore or more tightly regulated Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok has an aesthetic grit; a few slums, open sex work, and street vendors on crowded pavements. Said vendors often speak basic English, while the elites the foreigners rely on are fluent. This allows the foreign correspondent or researcher the thrill of an edgy, orientalised posting without learning the language or developing a non-Bangkok-centric critique. This network becomes a closed informational loop, dependent on interpreters and fixers from the same consensus, unable to seek dissenting viewpoints outside this circuit.

I think understanding this tweet thread is essential in understanding racial dynamics across the Straits and foreign policy wrt to China.

China’s minority policy actually looks closer to Singapore’s model than people in the West like to admit.

In both systems:

1. minority groups have explicit protections baked into state policy,

2. quotas exist (education, housing, representation) that disproportionately benefit minorities,

3. and the state actively monitors citizens for extremism or chauvinism, not just separatism.

What’s often missed is who Singapore identified early on as its biggest long-term risk: Chinese chauvinism from the majority population. That insight is underrated.

Singapore understood that in a multiethnic society where one group is numerically and economically dominant, the main destabilising force isn’t minorities asserting identity, it’s actually the majority turning dominance into entitlement. So the system was designed to restrain the majority as much as protect minorities.

...

The uncomfortable takeaway is this: states that actually govern multiethnic societies seriously tend to fear the majority’s excesses more than minority identity… because historically, that’s what breaks countries.

One thing I try to do with my posts is explain the political and economic dynamics in SEA through the experience of the peoples and movements in the region. Obviously cultural translation can never be fully accurate, and so by very nature I tend to over emphasize certain aspects (that are also my own biases) so that foreign readers can better understand the context and practice of the Political Economy in SEA. But to refer to history, the Straits of Melaka have always historically been the cosmopolitan crossroads of various civilizations throughout millenia. This makes it a bit easier in one regard, as obviously through colonialism, we have been exposed to 'Western civilisation', but also complicates the picture as pre-existing forms of production and civilisation were remolded and reconfigured in the slow march toward global Capitalism.

Anwar’s statement

I have followed developments in Venezuela with grave concern. The leader of Venezuela and his wife were seized in a United States military operation of unusual scope and nature. Such actions constitute a clear violation of international law and amount to an unlawful use of force against a sovereign state.

President Maduro and his wife must be released without any undue delay. Whatever may be the reasons, the forcible removal of a sitting head of government through external action sets a dangerous precedent. It erodes fundamental restraints on the use of power between states and weakens the legal framework that underpins international order.

It is for the people of Venezuela to determine their own political future. As history has shown, abrupt changes in leadership brought about through external force will bring more harm than good, what more in a country already grappling with prolonged economic hardship and deep social strain.

Malaysia regards respect for international law and sovereignty as paramount to peaceful relations between states. Constructive engagement, dialogue and de-escalation remain the most credible path towards an outcome that protects civilians and allows Venezuelans to pursue their legitimate aspirations without further harm.

This response is expected for anyone bothered to read the country’s history in the last 50 years instead of repeating old retellings of anti-communist things that happened 70 years ago.

Westerners mad that global south countries do not recognize unilateral sanctions nor care about liberal antics. Personally, I applaud the industrious and entrepreneurial spirit of all the people involved in the transhipment of Venezeulan and Iranian oil in Malaysian waters.

I got hospitalized recently but of course the news never stops. And oddly enough my part of the world is appearing in the news headlines.

Edit: forgot to add this quote from the Straits Times article I just found funny:

“This is an act of surrender, a transfer of wealth from poor Malaysia to the rich US. For centuries, we fought colonial powers for our sovereignty. Are we now giving it away without resistance?” he asked in Parliament, referring to the federation’s colonial history under the Portuguese, Dutch, British and Japanese.

Little do the politicians in this forsaken country know

There was this trending infographic on social media showcasing attempted color revolutions and general social instabilities of neighbouring countries surrounding China.

The notable countries that have not yet fallen into this being Mongolia, Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia.

I can’t comment much on the rest but let’s take a quick look at some statistics for Malaysia to see if the country has potential.

Unemployment rate: 3.0% (About a decade low)

Youth unemployment: 10.2%

2025 1H GDP Growth: 4.4%

Headline Inflation: Jul 2025, 1.2%, monthly YoY peak at 1.7% for 2025

And apparently >70% of the assets related to the infamous 1MDB corruption scandal has been recovered.

And of course: Nepal, US turmoil a reminder for Malaysia, says Anwar

Anwar reminded Malaysians that unity is the foundation of a nation’s peace which, in turn, drives economic development and the overall wellbeing of its citizens, Utusan Malaysia reported.

“Compared to many other countries, we are far better off,” he said.

“For example, in Nepal, there are riots everywhere … a minister was stripped, and his wife burned to death.

“Just two days ago, there was a shooting involving a leader at a university in the US.

“So let us pray that we can continue to preserve peace and unity,” he said when officiating an event in Iskandar Puteri, Johor, today.

… Don’t let development erode what truly matters,” he said.

“We may build malls and industries and record high profits, but if we ignore issues like income, housing, welfare and education, we destroy our values and morals in the process.”

Had to avoid commenting on Indonesia because of diplomacy it seems.

“Other countries are worse and so we should just be glad”. A .

The “Israel”-Singapore connection

I would have written a much longer post, but I was brought to attention by this nifty post (archived link) by the “Israeli” trade mission to Singapore which sums it all up quite well:

Singapore has a remarkable story to tell, and paradoxically this south east Asian city-state has quite a lot in common with [the Zionist Entity], a small nation with a history of struggle and resilience. The two small nations have populations comprised of immigrants [the Zionists admitted it themselves which is somewhat hilarious] with different cultures and customs, surrounded by large countries with their own political and ethnic tensions. Both of these small nations have managed against all odds to turn themselves in a single generation from poor, underdeveloped markets to global economic powerhouses with advanced infrastructures, skilled and highly educated workforces and ambitious entrepreneurs. Singapore has grown to become a global financial hub and an Economic giant in a single generation.

The thing to realize is, what the anglophone Chinese bourgeoisie in Singapore hate more than sinophone Chinese people, are the Muslims, but especially Malay-Muslims, who rejected their liberal secular capitalism. Their nation-building myths are quite similar, which justifies Singapore’s hefty military budget - larger than every other Southeast Asian country, both in per capita and absolute terms.

A true liberation of the peoples of Southeast Asia necessitates the fall of the financial capitalists, chiefly represented by the largest banks in Southeast Asia, all based in Singapore. That’s why a lot of hysteria historically propagated here are based on “Indonesian” and “Malaysian” terrorists and supporters who’d like to see the downfall of “Singapore”. Nowadays, the rhetoric is a bit more muted, but echoes of this Islamophobia show-up from time to time.

Christmas Eve, 1965, is the unofficial date of the start of the ‘love story’ between Israel and Singapore, an affair that was kept a deep, dark secret. The international press, like the Israeli media, tried to bring the tale to light. Occasionally, scraps of information leaked out; some were published, some were denied, many were disregarded. The fear that the ties would be terminated if they became public knowledge had its effect. Israel imposed a total blackout on the story and the secret was preserved.

But ultimately the mysterious history between Israel and Singapore came to light. In his book, “From Third World to First: The Singapore Story 1965-2000,” published in 2000, Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding father and its first prime minister, disclosed the secret that had been kept for almost 40 years: It was the Israel Defense Forces that established the Singaporean army. Lee wrote, “To disguise their presence, we called them `Mexicans.’ They looked swarthy enough.”

To link it to a current news article: S’pore increased its security posture amid rising tensions from Iran-Israel conflict: Shanmugam

People in this region, other regions, or extremist organisations might want to make a point against Israeli, American or other Western assets, he said, adding that there could be attacks from the far right on Muslim assets..

If Singapore is ever attacked, it will make international headlines, he said. There is a possibility of attacks on both sides, he said, either by the far right attacking Muslims, or representatives of Muslim countries including Iran, and attacks on Western assets – American, European or Israeli.

“So we have increased our security posture, working off different scenarios, but you know, you can never be absolutely sure,” he added.

Israel-Hamas conflict a 'reminder' for Singapore that it has national interests at stake: Vivian Balakrishnan

This quick ejaculation of “terrorism” when it comes to West Asian or Islamic related foreign policy remains a defining motto of the Singaporean government’s continual targeting of (Malay-)Muslim people, in a “we care about terrorism, but especially from the muslims” sense and also that of it would be “bad for business” since it would harm the hard-fought “social harmony”.

"This episode is also a reminder to all Singaporeans that we do have our national interests at stake ... We must reject terrorism in all its forms. No excuses, no ifs, no buts, no short-term political advantage. Reject terrorism. If attacked, all of us here must give the government of the day the ability to exercise the right of self-defence," said Dr Balakrishnan, supporting the motion.

"But even when it does so, we will expect the government of the day to uphold international law. And as Singaporeans, we will continue to extend humanitarian assistance and protection to all civilians. We should support the peaceful resolution of disputes. And we must nurture and protect our own precious cohesion and harmony."

The misused word “harmony” crops up again. Wonder if they’ll stop using this tired phrase. Clearly the harmony didn’t apply to those that didn’t fit into their vision of Western Modernity.

And a quick note about the current Foreign Minister:

I would say it is expected, and it is, but still embarrassing.

I was going to write a proper response to another Western article on the SCS but they all are so lame and predictable.

China militarizing sand blah blah blah.

And then the common made up theory is that’s why these SEA nations are “hedging” and “balancing” between great powers.

It’s all so tiring. Westerners managed to end one war in the ducking 1600s and they think they know anything about international relations or statecraft. And I am especially raging at Amerikans whose country barely existed for 300 years thinking their decades old “expertise” can navigate millenia old cultures and history. Yes I really care about what a Guy in Baltimore thinks about the South China Sea issue.

::: spoiler A Response

The issue with a lot of those in the field international relations is that they can’t ever escape their Eurocentric pretensions and understandings. In the article they try to take an ideological “neutral” “understanding” of the South China Sea by evoking very tired concepts like “hedging” and mistakenly (or purposefully) project their own impressions and dynamics of Southeast Asian relations with China, and so they use the terms like “aggressive” and “great power”, when truthfully no one actually gives a fuck (except maybe VietNam) and no one in Southeast Asia ever uses those term, unless they have been groomed into Western institutions and education.

Literal Amerikan Geopolitical propaganda.

No one ducking lives there you dumb fucks. Are the fish victims of Chinese Imperialism? Perhaps their migration signifies hedging to US Navy boats. And actually I can hear one fish cry out, “save us from being victims of really good hotpot”.

Every accusation is projection and etc.