this post was submitted on 15 Jan 2024
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Image is of legal adviser to Israel's foreign ministry Tal Becker and British jurist Malcolm Shaw at the ICJ hearing.


The ICJ case against Israel might not achieve much for the Palestinian cause directly, given that Israeli politicians have explicitly stated that the Hague will not stop them - and I believe them. The Resistance will be what stops them, and they are doing quite well for themselves. Hezbollah has hit highly sensitive and important Israeli military sites over the last couple weeks, and in general persist in several border attacks every day. The battles in Iraq and Syria also continue. Hamas remains largely intact, and is successfully forcing Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip to retreat, and other parts of the Gazan Resistance are continuing to battle down in Khan Yunis. And, last but not least, Yemen is firmly dedicated to the blockade, warding off another ship literally minutes before I started writing this paragraph.

What the ICJ is battling over isn't Palestine and Israel - not really - but the legitimacy of international law itself, and to what degree victimized countries can rely on it to solve problems, versus needing to take more militant routes for justice. In a weird sense, it might be an L for Israel either way. If international law sides with Palestine, then when Israel refuses to stop, it will invalidate international law. If international law sides with Israel, then it will invalidate international law. There is no conceivable way for the West to come out of this looking good.

The South African portion detailing Israeli atrocities against Gaza was largely ignored by the western media. They have instead, obviously, decided to focus on the Israeli portion. Their defense appears to amount to "We didn't do it, Hamas did it. And if we did do it, it doesn't matter, because that's just urban warfare for you. Please get this whole thing thrown out on a very dubious technicality so we don't have to advance to the next stage."

From Craig Murray, who has been physically going to the Hague:

It is important to realise this. Israel is hoping to win on their procedural points about existence of dispute, unilateral assurances and jurisdiction. The obvious nonsense they spoke about the damage to homes and infrastructure being caused by Hamas, trucks entering Gaza and casualty figures, was not serious. They did not expect the judges to believe any of this. The procedural points were for the court. The rest was mass propaganda for the media.

...I am sure the judges want to get out of this and they may go for the procedural points. But there is a real problem with Israel’s “no dispute” argument. If accepted, it would mean that a country committing genocide can simply not reply to a challenge, and then legal action will not be possible because no reply means “no dispute”. I hope that absurdity is obvious to the judges. But they may of course wish not to notice it…

What do I think will happen? Some sort of “compromise”. The judges will issue provisional measures different to South Africa’s request, asking Israel to continue to take measures to protect the civilian population, or some such guff. Doubtless the State Department have drafted something like this for President of the court Donoghoe already.

I hope I am wrong. I would hate to give up on international law. One thing I do know for certain. These two days in the Hague were absolutely crucial for deciding if there is any meaning left in notions of international law and human rights. I still believe action by the court could cause the US and UK to back off and provide some measure of relief. For now, let us all pray or wish, each in our way, for the children of Gaza.


The weekly update is here on the website.


The Country of the Week is South Africa! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (8 children)

Kuwait and Qatar are diverting their shipments of oil and LNG because of Houthi attacks. That accounts for some 17% of Europe’s LNG supply, just as it is shaping up to be a biting winter in Europe.

Remember last year when libs said the winter was mild and the energy crisis was nothing more than a nuisance? This is the kind of unpredictability that makes it unsustainable for long-term industrial investment and planning.

And of course the US is reaping all the benefits from the Red Sea attacks that further cements European deindustrialization, with all the cheap skilled labor emigrants when Ukrainian Nazis start doing terrorism inside European countries themselves.

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (1 children)

milei at Davos:

"The Socialists maintain that we humans are damaging the planet and that it must be protected at all costs, even going as far as advocating for the bloody agenda of abortion".

lmao?

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (5 children)

Don't like the Yemeni "pirates"? Ah shit, man, you should have demanded your western genocidal governments to stop funding and supporting Saudi Arabia's genocide in Yemen... you had the opportunity!

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (5 children)

Apparently there is a plan to install solar on the pentagon and the MIC is frothing about the possibility of the solar panels to be bugged.

The buy American regulations would need to be waived to install the solar, so there are demands to use American solar panels instead. To build American solar panels, the buy American regulations would also need to be waived because America doesn’t make the grades of silicon required and can’t source enough lithium.

China should just ban the export of lithium and silicon and instawin the chip war.

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (2 children)

From the NYT: Looming Starvation in Gaza Shows Resurgence of Civilian Sieges in Warfare

“The rigor, scale and speed of the destruction of the structures necessary for survival, and enforcement of the siege, surpasses any other case of man-made famine in the last 75 years,” said Alex de Waal, an expert on humanitarian crises and international law at Tufts University who wrote “Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine.”

https://archive.is/Mjjcz

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (2 children)

The terrorist States of America plus nonce island are once again bombing Yemen

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (7 children)

Mainstream media in my country are quoting a lecturer at the Defence Academy who expects the American aggression against Yemen to be successful, and predicts that illegal zionist-related shipping through the Red Sea will resume soon.

He gives the following reasons:

  • Americans are shooting down Yemeni missiles. Presumably the Yemenis will give up when they see they don't hit their targets.
  • Americans and their vassals are beginning to escort ships through the area
  • Americans have been striking stockpiles and launchpads, presumably degrading Yemen's ability to enforce sanctions against the illegal zionist entity

I don't know about the rest but the first doesn't add up. Yemen's goal is to hurt the economy of the illegal zionist entity by denying them international shipping. They don't actually have to hit anything to do that, as long as the threat of enforcement deters the illegal passage of zionist-related ships.

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 9 months ago (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago (8 children)
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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (8 children)

Ok so we're country of week. I am South African, currently live here, and have lived here for almost all my life, feel free to ask any questions about the country and I'll do my best to answer them.

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago (7 children)

Pretty wild that if you search "ansar allah" or "ansarallah" on Wikipedia they only have a page on the "Houthi Movement (officially known as Ansar Allah)"

"Houthi" is like, an external name for them yeah?

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago (8 children)

In cope news, here's a three part Bloomberg series about ukraine. The first part is about what the US could have/should have done differently. I'm going to focus on the meat of this series, such as it is, not every bit of brainworms.

spoilerPart 1 - what could the US have done differently

The two prescriptions by the author are one - more aid earlier, but they recognize that this wouldn't be any guarantee (read, it wouldn't have really made a difference). The second is this:

Once Russian forces got stuck outside Kyiv in March 2022, Washington might have given Putin an ultimatum: Pull your forces back to where they started or face Western military intervention, led by the United States.

Setting aside the escalatory risk of defacto making ukraine part of NATO, this was not logistically possible. The US did not have forces disposed to execute a land campaign in ukraine. Mobilizing forces does not happen at the drop of a hat. It would have taken US and allies 3 to 6 months to rally a meaningful force to be ready in ukraine. Setting that aside, the end of March 2022 was the best time to negotiate peace, evidenced by the ceasefire/peace treaty that was scuttled by the US/UK. In a parallel universe, if NATO had pushed peace rather than undermining it, this probably would have happened. The threat to both Russia and ukraine of direct US involvement if peace didn't happen would provide even more push to this.

In short, the author of this article suggests only one thing the US could have done differently, and that would have been tacking an ultimatum onto the extant Peace negotiations. Of course, the author doesn't mention these negotiations at all.

Ukraine’s Desperate Hour: The World Needs a Russian Defeat

This article is mostly doom and gloom about the western order. It is generally directionally accurate though with many missing pieces, most notably the deindustrialization of Europe, the proliferation of military industrial capacity and technology transfers between Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and the continued erosion of support for the west in the global south. The article ends with the following:

If the US and its allies can find the fortitude and commitment to see Ukraine through to an acceptable outcome — one that makes it economically viable and militarily defensible — while also ratcheting up the pain Russia suffers for its aggression, the conflict might still have mostly constructive consequences.

In other words, absolutely no lessons learned from the abject failures of 2022-2023, only doubling down on the same maximalist objectives with no strategy to get there. When all you've got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Part 3 - Ukraine’s Desperate Hour: Victory (of a Sort) Is Still Possible

This part is forward looking. The author admits that 2024 is going to be ugly for ukraine as they "can't win a decisive victory in 2024." instead, the author recommends weathering the storm on the ground and seeking victory via pinprick strikes on the black sea navy, Crimea, sabotage in Russia, and seizing Russia's foreign reserves. The article does not mention the difficulties and reluctance of the euros on that, but does question whether such a step would erode the dollar's reserve status.

The final strategy described is the same as 2022/2023 - build a new army so that they can do another counteroffensive in 2025.

The fifth prong, then, involves sustaining Ukraine’s defenses in 2024 while building for a major offensive in 2025. This means new injections of artillery, air defenses, armor and airpower. It requires providing more long-range strike assets — such as US ATACMS and German Taurus missiles — that can help strike Russian targets throughout Ukraine. It also means helping Ukraine train its forces more thoroughly — some were sent into combat last year with just a few weeks of preparation — and to raise its ability to conduct complex offensive operations at scale.

Even with this support, Ukraine probably can’t retake all the territory it has lost since 2014 — or even since February 2022. But such aid will be the minimum requirement of a program to reclaim some lost territory, show that time is not on Russia’s side, and strengthen Ukraine’s hand for an eventual negotiation.

Note that there is literally no discussion of where the materiel, personnel and money for such a 4th (5th?) army might come from, no discussion of industrial capacity, and no discussion of how to build such an army without it being destroyed by kinzhals before it gets to the front. Also, no discussion of what Russia's actual objectives are beyond "being bad & conquering ukraine". The failure to discuss what an enemy's actual objectives and values are means that durable peace is impossible. The only thing that can be conceived of is endless hammering with one's only tool.

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago (13 children)

In Greece the neolib government is, to everyone's surprise, passing a law enabling gay couples to be able to adopt, but the Greek communist party has some interesting things to say about it. If sexual preferences really don't matter to the party, then there shouldn't be any differences for them in their ability to have a child. This is a very disappointing move, and terrible for attracting younger comrades that care much more about LGBTQ rights than the older people.

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (4 children)

AGDQ ending statement on behalf of Doctors Without Borders - for a ceasefire and against the targeting of hospitals and medical personnel.

VOD at 43:10:20

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (5 children)

In case you were wondering about the malignancy of the US military culture, here is an anecdote from a friend that used to be enlisted. Paraphrased:

"when we fired a saw or a 50 calibre gun we were told to limit bursts to a few seconds to prevent the barrel from overheating. We were told to say phrases while we shot. I can't remember the exact phrases we said, but it was like this: Start shooting the fully automatic, say, "killed a family of 4", stop shooting, and repeat."

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (13 children)

Americans need to be humbled, and the only way I ever see that happening is by losing a war on American soil.

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Oh now there are articles emerging of South Africa considering legal proceeedings against amerikkka ukkk as well: https://www.newarab.com/news/s-africa-lawyers-plan-gaza-war-crimes-case-against-us-uk

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 9 months ago (1 children)

The Israeli military killed captive soldier Ron Sherman with poison gas, according to his mother: https://nitter.cz/dancohen3000/status/1747673970193670532

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 9 months ago (5 children)

Current arab countries behavior do be showing why usa supports dictators/kings there.

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 9 months ago (3 children)

A second plane has hit the hexbear servers

i repeat

a second plane has hit the hexbear servers

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (11 children)

Yemen fired a missile at, and seems to have hit, the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged, US-owned and operated container ship.

Meanwhile, another division is forced to retreat from Gaza after being defeated by the Gazan Resistance. Three divisions are left to be destroyed.

edit: the video going around of the ship fire is not of the Gibraltar Eagle; however, the missile strike on the Gibraltar Eagle is real and did occur

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 9 months ago (7 children)

Seeing all these posts about hexbear being down has convinced me that I'm not nearly online enough

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 9 months ago (3 children)

China Railway has officially recovered to pre-pandemic levels of ridership.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Apparently when Iran struck ISIS, they actually struck an ISIS-affiliated group of Uyghur separatists. There are screenshots of Al-Mayadeen broadcast, but I can't read Arabic: https://nitter.cz/MayMelhem/status/1747035016960311693 Al-Mayadeen English still just says ISIS.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 9 months ago (3 children)

David Teeger also got removed as captain of the South African cricket team for "honouring" Shitraeli soldiers on their way to do genocide.

Clearly a skill issue, gf n00blet sit kid lmao PIGPOOPBALLS

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 9 months ago (9 children)

Don’t know if this is the right thread, so please delete if necessary.

In retrospect, could the US have negated this conflict by telling Israel straight up that they will only give aid and funding to Israel if the ruling parliamentary coalition supports a 2 state solution?

It seems to me that sometime between November 2020 and October 2023 Bibi specifically could have been made into THE enemy, without the US losing face within Israel.

Bibi is legitimately every single complaint the democrats have made with Russia and Vladimir Putin. From election interference to wars of territorial conquest. It’s truly shocking how lock step they have decided to be with the guy who trashed Obama on the floors of Congress.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 9 months ago (4 children)
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