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[-] LilyVess@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 points 9 hours ago

That's not birth rates, that's fertility rate. One measures births/1k and the other is an average of births per woman on their "child bearing lapse".

Japan might have a fertility rate of 1.2 but they have 6 births/1000 people. Argentina with 1.5 have 11.1 births/1000

A more relevant measure is "Natural change", it measure people death vs people birth not counting immigration:

India has +13 millions. Japan has -870k. China has -2 millions.

South Korea is "only" losing -77k people per year.

There are like 30~ countries that have negative population per year out of 197. Birthrates and fertility rate are going down each year, but not every country is losing population by it.

Source: https://georank.org/birth-rate

[-] Godric@lemmy.world 17 points 19 hours ago

Countries that take immigrants vs countries that don't:

[-] tio_bira@lemmy.world 1 points 12 hours ago

I won't cry in less argentinians, au contraire, fodam-se os bolhudos

[-] sunglocto@lemmy.dbzer0.com 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Birth rate isn't the only thing, life expectancy and the age of the average population is too. This is a factor that everyone in this thread seems to be ignoring because it proves why there is an appropiate reaction to the bottom 3 countries.

[-] mister_universe@lemmy.zip 7 points 22 hours ago

There's way too many people on Earth already.

[-] Gonzako@lemmy.world 13 points 19 hours ago

That's capitalism speak. There's way to many resources in the hands of the 0.1%. Should their wealth be redistributed you'd have everyone's needs met

[-] KyuubiNoKitsune@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 13 hours ago

Both can be true.

[-] rockerface@lemmy.cafe 7 points 22 hours ago

I don't advocate for any sort of culling, but we might want to aim for sustained population instead of infinite growth

[-] treesquid@lemmy.world 18 points 1 day ago

.8 birth rate is going to be a huge problem for South Korea in a few years. The rest are just "oh no, capitalism's infinite growth will be finite after all"

[-] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 7 points 1 day ago

Lower birthrates are less an issue that people think.

For any living being self replication can explode incredibly fast, and it's usually the case when numbers dwindle, due more resources available per person.

Big birth numbers are more worrying and limited resources lead to fast "too little resources for everyone" situation.

I remember reading that part of what took Europe our of the dark ages after the black plague was that survivors thrived in an post plague environment. Also remember reading that dutch population growth actually taller because after so many people died survivors got more meat and food in general available to them, so their children grew a lot.

So in general I'm always more worry about high birthrates than low birthrates.

[-] Fleur_@aussie.zone 6 points 20 hours ago

The problem is we have retirement these days. And also the plague would've killed the old and frail leaving the young and capable behind. Whilst birthrate decline means there are less young people relative to old people. This burdens young people who have to take care of the old. A problem that didn't exist when all of the old people died.

[-] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

I suppose the worst case scenario is old people having to work because they cannot retire as soon.

They are already saying it that new retirement ages would be in the 70s

Not ideal, but far better than starving or being homeless because you don't have resources for so many people.

[-] boonhet@sopuli.xyz 3 points 13 hours ago

So I'm paying taxes all my life so old people don't have to work but I might never be the beneficiary of this system myself

[-] MrKoyun@lemmy.world 1 points 11 hours ago

Yeah. Why not make the old people of today work to fix the mess they created? Oh wait, old people rule the world. They will just favor themselves and the rest isnt their problem. Like they have always done.

[-] Fleur_@aussie.zone 1 points 13 hours ago

Not sure if I should be sad that I'll never be able to retire or happy because I never have to save for retirement

[-] velma@sh.itjust.works 2 points 19 hours ago

It's either that or allow immigration or start forcing women to have more children than they want.

It's becoming clear which way the ruling class wants to go.

[-] Zarobi@aussie.zone 3 points 20 hours ago

This was true back when the economy was vague and vibes based and people kind of just died and it was ok. But now we have pensions, and it's considered unacceptable for people to starve to death and economies to collapse, so an upside down pyramid starts to get wobbly rather than "self-resolving".

[-] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 2 points 1 day ago

Can you elaborate? Why 0.8 in South Korea is so much worse than 1.08 in Poland?

[-] the_strange@feddit.org 8 points 1 day ago

The growth (or in this case decline) is exponential. 1.08 is bad, 0.80 is terrifying. 1.08 is roughly half of the fertility needed for a stable population (about 2.1 children per woman). This means that per generation your population shrinks by half its size. 0.8 is another 25% lower. At an exponential rate these differences add up fast. The first one gives you (roughly) one child per 8 great grandparents. The other one needs 18. So over 3 generations the population shrinks by another factor of more than a half.

[-] smh@slrpnk.net 7 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Wait, is the chart ”births per person” or ”per woman”? I was reading it as per person, so 1.08 per person would be about 2.16 per woman.

Edit: probably per woman. Lines up better with https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=JP . Grumble grumble numbers without units.

[-] victorz@lemmy.world 5 points 21 hours ago

Grumble grumble numbers without units.

You and both, buddy. Grumble!

[-] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 2 points 1 day ago

But the birthrates are still falling everywhere. Countries that are at 1.08 today will be at 0.8 soon. I think they are just hitting the problem sooner, not that they are facing a different issue.

[-] the_strange@feddit.org 3 points 1 day ago

Here's a visualization of the birth rates of Japan, Poland and Germany against those of South Korea:
https://georank.org/birth-rate/japan/south-korea
https://georank.org/birth-rate/poland/south-korea
https://georank.org/birth-rate/germany/south-korea

Japan and Poland have been stable, maybe slightly declining, since the early 2000s, and Germany has been stable for 50, all below replacement, whereas South Korea is still going down.

I am no demographic expert, so take this with a grain of salt, but for the moment it doesn't look like the other countries are going to hit the same problems at the same severity anytime soon whereas South Korea is going to get hit by the full force of their demographic issues within a few short decades.

[-] AEsheron@lemmy.world 1 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

Far from comprehensive, but a good primer.

The problem is similar to climate change. The effects of today will ripple several decades into the future, and people everywhere are more short-sighted than they would like to think, you and me included. Our brains are built for hunter gatherer lifestyles, sensing urgency in actions that will come back to us in 40-50 years just isn't how we are programmed. Germany is already entering the danger zone, the effects won't be stark for another 30 years or so perhaps, but if we delay much then there will be nothing to do to counterbalance it effectively. Demographic collapse is an issue that is way past mitigating by the time it becomes an acute problem. An ounce of prevention is not a pound or even a ton of cure, it's the only cure. And when it starts to hit noticeably, that means you are just going over the side of the waterfall and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Korea is just starting to tip over the edge of the waterfall, in 5-10 years it is going to get much worse.

The takeaway from the meme isn't that we are overreacting to their situation, it's that we are underreacting everywhere else. The real insidious issue is that in most nations having this problem, society largely panders to its politically active and (comparitively) wealthy elder base, and the best way to boost the birth rate is to shift support from them towards the young, which is politically problematic. So we are stuck in a situation where those with power have to act against their interest, in order to avoid problems that will happen far later than our brains are hardwired to care about. In short, the prognosis is very bad. Imho, the only chance most western nations have is watching things get very ugly for the elderly in Asia, and using that to scare their constituents enough to convince them that short term sacrifice is needed to avoid similar conditions for themselves. But I'd say it's a long shot.

[-] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 3 points 1 day ago

Japan and Poland have been stable, maybe slightly declining, since the early 2000s

I just checked Poland and it's not what they are reporting:

https://forsal.pl/gospodarka/demografia/artykuly/9811360,gus-potwierdza-to-rekord-dzietnosc-spadla-nizej-niz-kiedykolwiek-wcz.html

Number of births:

Birthrate:

Systematically falling for the last 10 years. Yes, it was better before that but experts say it doesn't look like stopping anytime soon. But I guess we'll see.

Those are data from GUS, the official statistics bureau of Poland.

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[-] bricked@feddit.org 39 points 1 day ago

Most of the former nations can at least offset this with immigration, while the latter ones don't

[-] Return_of_Chippy@lemmy.world 31 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I have heard Asia is the racism final boss continent.

[-] Fleur_@aussie.zone 4 points 20 hours ago

Can't have racism if you don't let anyone not of the majority ethnicity live in your country 🤔🤔🤔

-Asia

[-] huppakee@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago

racism is just that guy standing in front of the real final boss in Asia: xenofobia

[-] idiomaddict@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago

In humanity. Some people exclude others because of the order in which they apply spreads to scones, some because they disagree about whether the bread they’re eating is literally or metaphorically a man’s body, and some because they like a different sports team.

[-] LodeMike@lemmy.today 2 points 20 hours ago

Oh yeah China doesn't have enough people it's a huuge problem

[-] treesquid@lemmy.world 4 points 17 hours ago

Ok, but what happens when you have 500 million retirees that have to be supported by 300 million workers that are also trying to feed and house themselves and their children?

[-] LodeMike@lemmy.today 1 points 16 hours ago

What are the numbers like now?

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[-] edinbruh@feddit.it 7 points 1 day ago

I highly doubt that the birthrate in Italy is 1.14

The government and the media doesn't stop yapping about how it's declining and we are going extinct.

This happens of course for economical reasons, and the government comes up with the most half assed "solutions" to ever cross human mind. Like "reduce VAT taxes on diapers and powder milk" like that is gonna make any difference.

[-] velma@sh.itjust.works 3 points 20 hours ago

It happens because women have more choice over when and how many children to have.

That’s why you see it still falling in countries that have good economic and social safety nets.

[-] PugJesus@piefed.social 17 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I mean, South Korea and Japan's birth rate is a serious problem.

The issue is less that they're going 'extinct', and more that the population pyramid is gonna look real fucky going forward, and that comes with... economic issues. And potentially cultural issues.

[-] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 7 points 1 day ago

Those look very similar to me. I would say Japan is now where Poland will be in 10 years. Why it's a problem for Japan but not Poland?

[-] PugJesus@piefed.social 5 points 1 day ago

Those look very similar to me. I would say Japan is now where Poland will be in 10 years. Why it’s a problem for Japan but not Poland?

That's the thing about population pyramids - they don't just move up evenly. They're adjusted by the ongoing mortality of each age group and the size of the next age group down. Poland and Japan are on the same trajectory, but Japan is, effectively, much further along. More ~30-40 years than ~10. The emphasis is less on the largest 'boom' generation, and much more on the general trend of the 'youngest' generations shrinking, growing, or being stable. In Poland, it's uneven - closer to shrinking than stable, but more stable than Japan, which is only shrinking.

Even relatively small differences can have an outsized effect in making the older generations an ever-larger proportion of the population despite their lifetime mortality going up with each age bracket. Compare the percentages here. "Boom" generation aside, Japan's retiree cohort is roughly 150% the youth cohort. That's not a good sign. For Poland to end up with those numbers in a decade, it would have to have effectively no mortality in the elder cohorts - extremely unlikely.

That being said, it is a problem for Poland going forward - as well as many other developed countries.

[-] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 7 points 1 day ago

That being said, it is a problem for Poland going forward - as well as many other developed countries.

Exactly, Japan is hitting it sooner but most countries will have the same issue eventually. The main difference I think is that Japan is still refusing to address this issue by allowing more immigration while some European countries are trying to do it already. So I think this is going to be a scary but interesting experiment. Poland will go the way of Japan, Spain will try to support the population growth with immigrants. It will be interesting to see where each will be in 30 years. We can use Japan as a canary in the meantime.

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[-] mecen@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 day ago

In EU it isn't serious problem?

[-] AEsheron@lemmy.world 1 points 10 hours ago

Japan and Korea are both further along the path, and moving more quickly. But yes, much of the EU is still on the same path, and the time to effectively mitigate the issue will come and go before most people notice. This is a problem that always has consequences out many decades from current actions, a timeline just too far along for our hunter-gatherer brains to care much about. It will take much longer to be in a real bind, but by the time it happens it is far too late to right the ship.

[-] PugJesus@piefed.social 5 points 1 day ago

It is, but not as bad. The EU's birth rate is higher than Japan's, and the EU is much more immigrant-friendly - and if that makes you suck in air through your teeth, let me clarify - that's a relative estimation. SK and Japan are... infamously hostile towards immigration.

[-] daannii@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

We need less humans.

Otherwise we will outgrow this planet and kill it and ourselves.

[-] VibeSurgeon@piefed.social 3 points 1 day ago

This is eco-fascist propaganda, stop parroting it

[-] daannii@lemmy.world 3 points 13 hours ago

So humans constantly multiplying and growing has zero impact on the world ?

Only capitalist overlords want constant population growth. Because that's the only way they increase their wealth.

By stealing it from more people. By having more desperate people who know they are easily replaceable, work for pennies.

Exploitation is the game. And you need more people to exploit people. Boys to fight endless wars.

Especially since their influence on the world is likely to start decreasing life span exponentially.

[-] PotatoesFall@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 1 day ago

From my reading, eco-fascists demand eugenics, genocide or anti-immigration laws. Pointing out that fewer people on the planet could help, doesn't seem fascist to me.

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this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2026
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