Crossposted from: https://hexbear.net/post/8036692
I promise we're good for it guys!
I'm absolutely amazed that Altman isn't considered toxic waste by now financially. He was declared untrustworthy by his own board, and as far as I'm aware OpenAI has fallen short of every known business agreement so far. They have so many deals contingent on shit they haven't delivered and can't deliver that it should make any risk analyst's head spin.
I watched The Big Short again last night. It's absurd how we seem to be going through the exact same steps as the subprime crisis did, not even 20 years later.
Charles Ponzi, looking up from hell
“Jesus Christ, they’ve perfected the art!”
knock knock
Wallet Inspector!
Private equity will find a way to make people use AI, they will likely force cities into contracts to use it for whatever stupid reason they dream up.
Simple. When it comes time to repay that investment, they'll just get the money from new investors, offering them even higher returns!
The subtext sounds like "we guarantee your returns, then go public. If we go bankrupt you get the retail investors' money, if we become the next Google you get your own private island." All you have to do is trust Sam Altman and (breaks out in hysterical laughter).
Do they mean 17.5% a year? My balanced bond-equity portfolio made 14-15% annual returns over the past three years by the radical method of buying "shares of companies that make profits" and "bonds backed by my local and national government." (Update: I made about 12% a year because I backed out of American stocks years ago, but the blandest 60% stock, 40% bond index fund in my country returned that 14-15% a year after expenses).
This kind of ROI to me stinks of late-stages Ponzi scheme—the smart money has made its pile, but they need to keep pulling in the rubes to keep the illusion of growth running.
Yes, promising "returns like a good year on the stock market, but no risk" usually says Ponzi.
When the forensic accountants go through OpenAI's books in 2027 or 2028 I would like to see whether anyone but staff and suppliers made money from it.
the radical method of buying "shares of companies that make profits"
That's OpenAI out then
They know private equity is almost tapped out, and whoever is first in this latest round will grab the largest portion of what's left. I don't know if it's the end game, but all but the most delusional investors are starting to ask where the returns are after years of the same promises
"Trust me, bro. Just a few more hundreds of billions, and then we'll be able to replace all your employees forever."
to invest, put your money in that hole
Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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