[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 4 points 19 hours ago

/s The United Kingdom of England and Scotland, the Principality of Wales, the subject territory of Ireland (Let alone Normandy and Gascony) were famously lacking in linguistic, religious, and cultural differences back when they were a great power. /s

I feel like the answer to the first is "name one". He can't mean any Chinese dynasty, the Mongols, any of the Islamic caliphates, the UK, France. Maybe he means Bronze Age Egypt? They kept hiring all the Nubians they could get though.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 3 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago)

That depends, remember that you are losing five years of growth and dividends and if you are are a wise investor every year or so you sell some of what is doing best and buy some of what has been doing worst to lock in your gains. Also remember that you have to buy back in to gain anything from that crash, and its really hard to buy stocks when the market has just lost half its value. Most people who 'successfully predict a recession' sell too early and buy back too late so are not very far ahead.

But if you really believe that the US economy will crash by say the end of 2027, you think other assets will do better, and there are ways to buy them.

The USA is about 60% of the global stock market by market capitalization. Right now its much less than 60% of my stock holdings.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago

Investing is all about relative performance. If you think 'AI' stocks are a bubble. you think that some other stocks will do better than them over the next five years, and you can allocate your assets accordingly.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 8 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Usually AI boosters are claiming that soon most humans will be economically useless, not that it would be terrible if there were fewer white people. One reason people avoid having children is that they feel economically insecure and doubt there will be respected places in society for their offspring.

Dwarkesh Patel is the only other Indian American I have seen who is friends with our friends.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 1 points 3 days ago

Someone in the comments used an ?AI-powered? fact-checking tool to push back on some of the claims that inheriting an old house in Japan is a burden. I especially doubt that the land the house is on is worth nothing.

It is miserable to live in a dying town or village and many people talk about this problem in Italy, Moldova, Canada, and other countries.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 4 points 4 days ago

It is a viable business and it fuels the spread of disinformation. Have you noticed that Old Media magazines have online wings that are full of random advertorials? That is because Google declared that they are Good Domains and upranked them so all the sleazy online marketing migrated to them.

That is also why people buy formerly respected domains and put casinos, propaganda, or virus-laden porn on them.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 8 points 4 days ago

gutter racist and eugenicist beliefs

The Sam Kriss article in Harpers above focuses on "these people don't know how to be happy" and never gets around to saying "Scott Alexander is gentle in person but wants to get rid of or sterilize poor brown people and helped people like Curtis Yarvin rise to power."

Note that SlateScott's group home is named after a Lord of the Rings location

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 4 points 5 days ago

Jessica Taylor wrote a whole other post rebutting Scott Alexander's take on events (she seemed more friendly to Michael Vassar than he was by 2021) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pQGFeKvjydztpgnsY/occupational-infohazards Fortunately, we can just say that both mainstream LessWrong and the splinter movements sound unsafe and avoid them both.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 6 points 6 days ago

Emily M. Bender says its framed around doomers, boosters, "a third way," and CEOs, "The fact that many of his interviewees are singing from the same hymnal is underscored by edits wherein he splices together clips from multiple (3? more?) speakers into one sentence."

I have mixed feelings about her pop book.

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 5 points 6 days ago

Hippie culture had elements of entrepreneurship and self-improvement, and that was definitely a time in the USA when the boss might invite you for drinks or to a strip club while you were candidate for promotion

I think if you are comfortable saying "I use substances to turn my brain off / experiment with other ways of seeing the world / because its fun" you tend to drift away from orthodox LW

[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 4 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I don't know much about Michael Vassar's career after MetaMed went bankrupt in 2015. It sounds like he remained close to CFAR after it pivoted from rationality training to AI doom, but I don't know much about them after 2016 either. I don't know a long profile of him like the RationalWiki articles and podcasts on other leading figures.

A characteristic of rationalist groups is that leaders refuse to state clear norms around everyday human frailties like substance use, hiring friends and lovers, and dating people you have power over. The Leverage staffer defended her boss by saying that they had no policy around senior staff dating employees, Yudkowsky is really uncomfortable telling other leading rationalists not to encourage their fans to use psychedelics.

Substance use, intense sexual play, tangled relationship chains, narcissists with reality distortion fields, and mental illness make it hard to establish facts.

Some of the woo-curious LessWrongers get grouped under postrationalism.

I doubt they have read "The Tyranny of Structurelessness" and subsequent debates because it was written by a feminist.

31
submitted 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) by CinnasVerses@awful.systems to c/sneerclub@awful.systems

Does anyone know what this June 2019 text from Epstein is about? I have added some links to RationalWiki and Wikipedia ~~but not corrected spelling~~ and corrected OCR errors. Was it at one of the institutions he sponsored like MIT Media Lab? Or more like his conference in the Virgin Islands? It seems to mix mainstream figures and people in the Libertarian/LessWrong network.

Another correspondent in 2016 suggested inviting Scott Alexander Siskind to speak at a different event Epstein was involved in. The correspondent has a Substack which cites Siskind in 2025.

Obviously just because Epstein had heard of a public figure does not mean that they knew him.

Epstein's words begin below:

  • List for summer talks. David Pizarro. Professor of Psychology and Philosopher at Cornell Univcrsit
  • Eric Weinstein, Mathematician
  • Matthew Putman, Scientist
  • Paul Saffo, Technology Forecaster, and Professor of Engineering
  • Lori Santos, Professor ofPsychology and Cognitive Science
  • Janna Levin, Theoretical Cosmologist
  • Ev Williams, Internet Entrepreneur
  • Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Author
  • Heiner Gocbbels, Composer, and Director
  • Martine Rothblatt, Lawyer and Entrepreneur
  • Peter Thiel, Venture Capitalist, and Entrepreneur
  • Richard Thaler, Behavioral Economics
  • Barbara Tversky, Professor of Psychology
  • Michael Vassar, Futurist, Activist
  • Bret Weinstein, Biologist, and Evolutionary Theorist
  • Susan Hockfield, MIT President, Professor of Neuroscience
  • David Deutsch, Physicist
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky, Al Researcher
  • N. Jeremy Kasdin, Astrophysicist
  • Carl Zimmer, Science Writer
  • Douglas Rushkoff, Media Theorist
  • Eric Topol, Cardiologist
  • Dustin Yellin, Artist
  • Sherry Turkic, Professor of Social Studies
  • Taylor Mac, Actor
  • Stephen Johnson, Author
  • Martin Hagglund, Swedish Philosopher and Scholar of Modernist Literature
  • Thomas Metzinger, Philosopher, and Professor of Theoretical Philosophy
  • Bjarke Ingels, Danish Architect, Founder of BIG, currently working on Floating Cities/Sustainable Habitats project
  • Kai-Fu Lee, Venture Capitalist, Technology Executive, and Al Expert, developed the world's first speaker-independent continuous speech recognition system
  • Poppy Crum, Neuroscientist, and Technologist, Chief Scientist at Dolby Laboratories, Adjunct Professor at Stanford University (Computer Research in Music)
  • Neil Burgess, Researcher, and Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience, investigating the role of the hippocampus in spatial navigation
  • Paul Sloom, Psychologist, and Researcher exploring how children and adults understand the physical and secin' world, with a special focus on language, religion and morality
  • Brian Cox, Physicist, and Professor of Particle Physics, Presenter of Science Programs
  • Eythor Bender. CEO of Berkeley Bionics, Innovator and Business Leader in human augmentation (bionics and robotics)
  • Gwynne Shotwell President. and COO at SpaceX, Engineer. listed in 2018 as the 59th most powerful woman in the world by Forbes
  • Jaap de Roodc. Associate Professor of Evolution (of parasites) and Ecology, focusing on how parasites attack monarch butterflies and in return how butterflies have the ability to self-medicate
  • Jim Holt, American Philosopher, and Contributor to the New York Times writing on string theory, time, the universe, and philosophy
  • Vijay Komar, Indian Roboticist and UPS Foundation Professor in School of Engineering & Applied Science:. became Dean of Penn Engineering, studies flying and cooperative robots
  • Hugh Herr, Biophysicist, Engineer, and Rock Climber, builds prosthetic knees, legs, and ankles that fuse biomechanics with microprocessors at MIT
  • Gabriel Zucman, French Economist at UC Berkeley. best known for his research on tax havens, inequalities, and global wealth
  • Fci-Fei Li, Professor of Computer Science, Director of Stanford's Human-Ccntered Al, works as Chief Scientist of Al/ML of Google Cloud
  • Dennis Hong, Korean American Mechanical Engineer, Professor and Founding Director of RoMeLa (Robotics & Mechanisms Laboratory) of the Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Department at UCLA
  • Misha (Mikhail) Leonidovich Gromov, American
[-] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 36 points 1 month ago

There is an old principle in software development not to make the GUI too pretty until the back end works, because managers and customers will think its ready when they can click around buttons with nice shading and animations. I think slopware is like that. People see the demo that appears to work and don't see what maintaining it and integrating it with other systems is like.

32
submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by CinnasVerses@awful.systems to c/sneerclub@awful.systems

Its almost the end of the year so most US nonprofits which want to remain nonprofits have filed Form 990 for 2024 including some run by our dear friends. This is a mandatory financial report.

  • Lightcone Infrastructure is here. They operate LessWrong and the Lighthaven campus in Berkeley but list no physical assets; someone on Reddit says that they let fellow travelers like Scott Alexander use their old rented office for free. "We are a registered 501(c)3 and are IMO the best bet you have for converting money into good futures for humanity." They also published a book and website with common-sense, data-based advice for Democratic Party leaders called Deciding to Win which I am sure fills a gap in the literature. Edit: their November 2024 call for donationswhich talks how they spend $16.5m on real estate and $6m on renovations then saw donations collapse is here, an analysis is here
  • CFAR is here. They seem to own the campus in Berkeley but it is encumbered with a mortgage ("Land, buildings, and equipment ... less depreciation; $22,026,042 ... Secured mortgages and notes payable, $20,848,988"). I don't know what else they do since they stopped teaching rationality workshops in 2016 or so and pivoted to worrying about building Colossus. They have nine employees with salaries from $112k to $340k plus a president paid $23k/year
  • MIRI is here. They pay Yud ($599,970 in 2024!) and after failing to publish much research on how to build Friend Computer they pivoted to arguing that Friend Computer might not be our friend. Edit: they had about $16 million in mostly financial assets (cash, investments, etc.) at end of year but spent $6.5m against $1.5m of revenue in 2024. They received $25 million in 2021 and ever since they have been consuming those funds rather than investing them and living off the interest.
  • BEMC Foundation is here. This husband-and-wife organization gives about $2 million/year each to Vox Future Perfect and GiveWell from an initial $38m in capital (so they can keep giving for decades without adding more capital). Edit: The size of the donations to Future Perfect and GiveWell swing from year to year so neither can count on the money, and they gave out $6.4m in 2024 which is not sustainable.
  • The Clear Fund (GiveWell) is here. They have the biggest wad of cash and the highest cashflow.
  • Edit: Open Philanthropy (now Coefficient Giving) is here (they have two sister organizations). David Gerard says they are mainly a way for Dustin Moskevitz the co-founder of Facebook to organize donations, like the Gates, Carnegie, and Rockefeller foundations. They used to fund Lightcone.
  • Edit: Animal Charity Evaluators is here. They have funded Vox Future Perfect (in 2020-2021) and the longtermist kind of animal welfare ("if humans eating pigs is bad, isn't whales eating krill worse?")
  • Edit: Survival and Flourishing Fund does not seem to be a charity. Whereas a Lightcone staffer says that SFF funds Lightcone, SFF say that they just connect applicants to donors and evaluate grant applications. So who exactly is providing the money? Sometimes its Jaan Tallinn of Skype and Kazaa.
  • Centre for Effective Altruism is mostly British but has a US wing since March 2025 https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/333737390
  • Edit: Giving What We Can seems like a mainstream "bednets and deworming pills" type of charity
  • Edit: Givedirectly Inc is an excellent idea in principle (give money to poor people overseas and let them figure out how best to use it) but their auditor flagged them for Material noncompliance and Material weakness in internal controls. The mistakes don't seem sinister (they classified $39 million of donations as conditional rather than unconditional- ie. with more restrictions than they actually had). GiveDirectly, Give What We Can, and GiveWell are all much better funded than the core LessWrong organizations.

Since CFAR seem to own Lighthaven, its curious that Lightcone head Oliver Habryka threatens to sell it if Lightcone shut down. One might almost imagine that boundaries between all these organizations are not as clear as the org charts make it seem. SFGate says that it cost $16.5 million plus renovations:

Who are these owners? The property belongs to a limited liability company called Lightcone Rose Garden, which appears to be a stand-in for the nonprofit Center for Applied Rationality and its project, Lightcone Infrastructure. Both of these organizations list the address, 2740 Telegraph Ave., as their home on public filings. They’ve renovated the inn, named it Lighthaven, and now use it to host events, often related to the organizations’ work in cognitive science, artificial intelligence safety and “longtermism.”

Habryka was boasting about the campus in 2024 and said that Lightcone budgeted $6.25 million on renovating the campus that year. It also seems odd for a nonprofit to spend money renovating a property that belongs to another nonprofit.

On LessWrong Habryka also mentions "a property we (Lightcone) own right next to Lighthaven, which is worth around $1M" and which they could use as collateral for a loan. Lightcone's 2024 paperwork listed the only assets as cash and accounts receivable. So either they are passing around assets like the last plastic cup at a frat party, or they bought this recently while the dispute with the trustees was ongoing, or Habryka does not know what his organization actually owns.

The California end seems to be burning money, as many movements with apocalyptic messages and inexperienced managers do. Revenue was significantly less than expenses and assets of CFAR are close to liabilities. CFAR/Lightcone do not have the $4.9 million liquid assets which the FTX trustees want back and claim their escrow company lost another $1 million of FTX's money.

21
submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by CinnasVerses@awful.systems to c/sneerclub@awful.systems

People connected to LessWrong and the Bay Area surveillance industry often cite David Chapman's "Geeks, Mops, and Sociopaths in Subculture Evolution" to understand why their subcultures keep getting taken over by jerks. Chapman is a Buddhist mystic who seems rationalist-curious. Some people use the term postrationalist.

Have you noticed that Chapman presents the founders of nerdy subcultures as innocent nerds being pushed around by the mean suits? But today we know that the founders of Longtermism and LessWrong all had ulterior motives: Scott Alexander and Nick Bostrom were into race pseudoscience, and Yudkowsky had his kinks (and was also into eugenics and Libertarianism). HPMOR teaches that intelligence is the measure of human worth, and the use of intelligence is to manipulate people. Mollie Gleiberman makes a strong argument that "bednet" effective altruism with short-term measurable goals was always meant as an outer doctrine to prepare people to hear the inner doctrine about how building God and expanding across the Universe would be the most effective altruism of all. And there were all the issues within LessWrong and Effective Altruism around substance use, abuse of underpaid employees, and bosses who felt entitled to hit on subordinates. A '60s rocker might have been cheated by his record label, but that does not get him off the hook for crashing a car while high on nose candy and deep inside a groupie.

I don't know whether Chapman was naive or creating a smokescreen. Had he ever met the thinkers he admired in person?

13

Form 990 for these organizations mentions many names I am not familiar with such as Tyler Emerson. Many people in these spaces have romantic or housing partnerships with each other, and many attend meetups and cons together. A MIRI staffer claims that Peter Thiel funded them from 2005 to 2009, we now know when Jeffrey Epstein donated. Publishing such a thing is not very nice since these are living persons frequently accused of questionable behavior which never goes to court (and some may have left the movement), but does a concise list of dates, places, and known connections exist?

Maybe that social graph would be more of a dot. So many of these people date each other and serve on each other's boards and live in the SF Bay Area, Austin TX, the NYC area, or Oxford, England. On the enshittified site people talk about their Twitter and Tumblr connections.

8
Stephen and Steven (awful.systems)

We often mix up two bloggers named Scott. One of Jeffrey Epstein's victims says that she was abused by a white-haired psychology professor or Harvard professor named Stephen. In 2020, Vice observed that two Harvard faculty members with known ties to Epstein fit that description (a Steven and a Stephen). The older of the two taught the younger. The younger denies that he met or had sex with the victim. What kind of workplace has two people who can be reasonably suspected of an act like that?

I am being very careful about talking about this.

18

An opposition between altruism and selfishness seems important to Yud. 23-year-old Yud said "I was pretty much entirely altruistic in terms of raw motivations" and his Pathfinder fic has a whole theology of selfishness. His protagonists have a deep longing to be world-historical figures and be admired by the world. Dreams of controlling and manipulating people to get what you want are woven into his community like mould spores in a condemned building.

Has anyone unpicked this? Is talking about selfishness and altrusm common in LessWrong like pretending to use Bayesian statistics?

16
submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by CinnasVerses@awful.systems to c/sneerclub@awful.systems

I used to think that psychiatry-blogging was Scott Alexander's most useful/least harmful writing, because its his profession and an underserved topic. But he has his agenda to preach race pseudoscience and 1920s-type eugenics, and he has written in some ethical grey areas like stating a named friend's diagnosis and desired course of treatment. He is in a community where many people tell themselves that their substance use is medicinal and want proscriptions. Someone on SneerClub thinks he mixed up psychosis and schizophrenia in a recent post.

If you are in a registered profession like psychiatry, it can be dangerous to casually comment on your colleagues. Regardless, has anyone with relevant qualifications ever commented on his psychiatry blogging and whether it is a good representation of the state of knowledge?

33
submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by CinnasVerses@awful.systems to c/sneerclub@awful.systems

Bad people who spend too long on social media call normies NPCs as in video-game NPCs who follow a closed behavioural loop. Wikipedia says this slur was popular with the Twitter far right in October 2018. Two years before that, Maciej Ceglowski warned:

I've even seen people in the so-called rationalist community refer to people who they don't think are effective as ‘Non Player Characters’, or NPCs, a term borrowed from video games. This is a horrible way to look at the world.

Sometime in 2016, an anonymous coward on 4Chan wrote:

I have a theory that there are only a fixed quantity of souls on planet Earth that cycle continuously through reincarnation. However, since the human growth rate is so severe, the soulless extra walking flesh piles around us are NPC’s (sic), or ultimate normalfags, who autonomously follow group think and social trends in order to appear convincingly human.

Kotaku says that this post was rediscovered by the far right in 2018.

Scott Alexander's novel Unsong has an angel tell a human character that there was a shortage of divine light for creating souls so "I THOUGHT I WOULD SOLVE THE MORAL CRISIS AND THE RESOURCE ALLOCATION PROBLEM SIMULTANEOUSLY BY REMOVING THE SOULS FROM PEOPLE IN NORTHEAST AFRICA SO THEY STOPPED HAVING CONSCIOUS EXPERIENCES." He posted that chapter in August 2016 (unsongbook.com). Was he reading or posting on 4chan?

Did any posts on LessWrong use this insult before August 2016?

Edit: In HPMOR by Eliezer Yudkowsky (written in 2009 and 2010), rationalist Harry Potter calls people who don't do what he tells them NPCs. I don't think Yud's Harry says they have no souls but he has contempt for them.

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