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[โ€“] 35 points 7 months ago (2 children)

More likely, not rejoining, but rejoining in all but name by making basically the same trade deals

This time with zero power to veto any of them, the worst of both worlds

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  • [โ€“] 5 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Northern Ireland is still in the customs union, just with zero democratic representation and annoying customs forms when trying to trade with the mainland.

    Granted, I like it because it means we are strategically important. A business here can do business with both the UK and the EU. We also had the UK's discounted tariffs for the USA. We're kind of a funny special economic zone.

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  • [โ€“] 35 points 7 months ago

    I doubt it. Most "Reform-types" won't accept Brexit wasn't a good thing for the common person.

    As they say; it's easier to trick someone than to convince them they've been tricked.

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  • [โ€“] 28 points 7 months ago (17 children)

    As a unitedstatesian, I was genuinely baffled by Brexit - particularly the political establishmentโ€™s insistence on following the referendum despite the significant numbers of people who stated it was a protest vote, and all the analysis that said it would be rather economically catastrophic.

    But nope: See that brick wall? Letโ€™s floor it and hope for the best, wcgw?

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  • [โ€“] 11 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    My mum voted brexit and she regrets it. She says such an issue shouldn't have been put to a refurrendum as the average person didn't know what the EU was, so they just had to be lied to for a few months.

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  • [โ€“] 22 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    If you donโ€™t know, vote to keep the status quo. Or donโ€™t vote. What the fuck did she think she was doing?

    Jesus, these people.

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  • [โ€“] 3 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    She thought the EU was just unnecessary bureaucracy

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  • Exactly why "protest votes" are such a monumentally stupid idea. In a referendum, people vote for what outcome the people want, and the people will get what they voted for. Do they think the ballot box is supposed to be able to tell who genuinely wanted to leave the EU and who was just being a cheeky asshole?

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  • [โ€“] 2 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Surely that's a good thing that the government followed through on its promise to respect the democratic result.

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    [โ€“] 20 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    I would vote for it. Drop the pound just to spite the boomers who pulled the ladder up.

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  • [โ€“] 19 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    I would love it, but I don't hold out hope. If we did, I would fully expect us to make plenty of concessions and agree to extra restrictions to stop us leaving the next time a prime minister wants to appease the eurosceptics. But I think what's much more likely is continued re-integration into EU/European networks and systems from outside the EU at a higher cost than before. It might be humiliating to nationalists, but at the end of the day our future is bound to that of the rest of Europe and working together is a matter of survival, not principle.

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  • [โ€“] 5 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    I don't see the EU allowing the UK to keep the pound if they rejoin which at present is a complete deal-breaker even for most remain voters.

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  • [โ€“] 2 points 7 months ago

    Several EU member countries never introduced the Euro, e.g. Denmark and Hungary, so I don't see why the UK couldn't keep the pound. Participation in the common currency has always been entirely optional.

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  • [โ€“] 16 points 7 months ago*

    If it is it's probaly a long way down the line. The current poll leading right wing party has a very strong eurosceptic streak to it (well all the right wing parties do) and as long as they're around in any capacity it will be hard to get that through. There's the fact I think the topic is just a massive hot potato too. The political process that led up to brexit and the brexot process itself was a fucking mess and I think there is a level of national exhaustion over it despite polling long showing that everyone has worked out brexit was a terrible idea/ most the folks who voted for brexit are dead.

    You'll see some closer relationship being forged in the form of some sort of trade deal or some kind of Norway like situation much sooner, indeed o think the current labour government are angling for something like that but not sure of the details.

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  • [โ€“] 15 points 7 months ago

    Unofficially via trade agreements and defence agreements, yes - and that process is already underway. Officially as a full official member - not for at least a generation. The country needs its English Thatcherite Gen Xers - the flag shaggers and mini-roundabout painters - to die off before that can happen.

    And to be honest, given how much fucking stress this country caused the EU and also given we're now about as powerful as a weak sneeze I'm hard pressed to think of a reason why they'd even want us back.

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  • [โ€“] 12 points 7 months ago (6 children)

    I actually think full membership is pretty unlikely, at least in the short to medium term. Well, unless we get a Lib Dem majority government (not going to happen). The far-right hate the EU because their brains have been cooked on Telegraph and Murdoch slop and the left is flirting with MMT, something the fiscal rules of the Lisbon treaty prohibits.

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  • [โ€“] 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)
  • [โ€“] 4 points 7 months ago

    Modern Monetary Theory. Technically it's just a description of how money works, but MMT people tend to advocate positions about increasing spending and that government debt isn't actually a factor in the state of the economy.

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  • [โ€“] 1 point 7 months ago (1 child)
  • [โ€“] 1 point 7 months ago

    Does anybody have anything other than an "introduction" to MMT? I find that everything I see stops short of answering the questions I have.

    • MMTers will say it's just a new (more accurate) way to think about how the existing system works, but how does it effect a governments options for policy?
    • They will also say it's not a license to spend recklessly, as the difference between money issued and money reclaimed drives inflation. This sounds like having a limit on a budget deficit / borrowing to me, so how is this different?
    • They will also stress that it means you don't have to wait for growth (i.e. increasing tax income) to start government spending as spending is money creation. Fine, but it's still a feedback loop, and after year 1 why does it matter where the loop started?
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    [โ€“] 12 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Yes, but we'll be have a customs union first with a services agreement as well.

    I don't see us taking the Euro. I just don't think anyone wants to surrender economic policy to the ECB, and the last time we tried to go through the ERM process it ended very badly. The GBP is too heavily traded in it's own right to maintain the exchange rates in a tight enough band for long enough.

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  • [โ€“] 11 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    I think the EU would need some sort of 'Brenter' poll first, to see if the spoilt brat of the family would be welcomed back, what with all our needy requirements about keeping our own currency etc. I can't see it personally for a long time as there's still that resistance to change things that are viewed as 'ours' and changing them to something viewed as 'theirs'. We never really fully committed to it the first time. Hopefully we'll see the need to join the 'middle powers' in some kind of alliance though.

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  • [โ€“] 7 points 7 months ago

    I think most would be okay if they didn't get preferred treatment. Gotta adopt the Euro. No Schengen opt out. Etc. Years long process just like everyone.

    We all know it wouldn't happen anyhow.

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  • [โ€“] 2 points 7 months ago

    I'd say, make it unambiguously clear that joining the EU means joining the Euro and joining the Schengen area. Then require at least 67,7 % "Yes" in a poll.

    I would prefer UK not joining us without these requirements fulfilled. And yes, other's may join with just 50 % "yes", but they don't have a history of quitting the EU.

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  • [โ€“] 8 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    How is this related to buying european goods and services?

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  • [โ€“] 8 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    It affects how easy it is for people in one European country to purchase goods from another European country. It also affects how aligned the regulatory framework of the UK is with the rest of Europe, which impacts the types of goods and services that get made/sold there

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  • [โ€“] 7 points 7 months ago

    Most of the country wants it but the politicians don't want to give the far right any excuses.ย 

    What we're seeing is closer and closer alignment until we end up as a defacto member of the common market, but without a say over the rules.

    If we end up rejoining it will probably take more than a decade and it will be under the default rules, just because the EU can't be bothered to deal with British exceptionalism again.

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  • [โ€“] 6 points 7 months ago

    I hope so. At least economic/defence/no_border part of the union.

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  • [โ€“] 6 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Kind of misses the point, UK is focused on trying to fix the shit show that is Westminster and Whitehall, the very people who pinned the blame for everything on the EU for 40 years after unilaterally signing us up for their own business interests. EU is not our concern right now, we have bigger problems.

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    [โ€“] 5 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Shouldnโ€™t you be asking the EU for the terms? Iโ€™m not sure they want them back, not with Garage as the next PM.

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    [โ€“] 3 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    I think the UK could eventually rejoin the EU but it's not going to happen soon. Brexiteers are probably a minority of the British population now (Brexiteers tend to be older, and some of those voters have passed away since the Brexit referendum). But the pro-Brexit camp has wealthy backers who will kick up a fuss.

    Maybe what will happen is more indecision and half measures for the next 10 or 20 years, perhaps followed by another referendum that would take us back into the EU.

    As for terms, it depends on what the EU would insist. Perhaps they would insist upon the UK adopting the Euro.

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  • [โ€“] 4 points 7 months ago (3 children)

    There's no insistence on UK adopting the Euro.

    Any new member state adopts the Euro and joins the Schengen area. This is not something to insist, it's just a rule that exists regardless of insisting or not insisting. Or insisting to not insist โ€“ whatever.

    If the UK ever joins the EU, it will also join the Euro. It's not really something that is up for debate.

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  • [โ€“] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

    You might be right, but if the UK did have to adopt the Euro like you say, I would guess that British support for rejoining would decline. If it really is a red line for the EU then it would probably lead to a lot of debate in the UK. Like I said though, for the moment the UK will probably just adopt half measures which bring the UK slightly closer to the EU.

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