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submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago

Important Statement

🇮🇷 Issued by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

spoiler

In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

There is no power and no strength except through Allah, the Most High, the Most Great

To the brave and heroic Iranian people, and to the honored families of the martyrs:

Your sons and servants in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, following the aggression launched by the Zionist army on our skies and its initiation of an imposed war on Islamic Iran—and in response to the call of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and with the support of the Iranian people—designed and executed a series of operations under the title "Truthful Promise 3", conducted in 22 intense, continuous, and multi-layered waves. These operations targeted a diverse and expansive bank of military objectives belonging to the enemy in the occupied lands of Al-Quds, once again proving that the brave soldiers of this nation never leave any aggression unanswered. With their reliance on Allah, their high determination, and their powerful blows, they shattered and mocked the foolish illusion that Iran could ever surrender.

We honor the martyrs of this imposed war and salute their pure souls. In the epic of sacred defense that lasted 12 days, martyr commanders such as Lieutenant General Mohammad Bagheri, Lieutenant General Gholam Ali Rashid, Lieutenant General Hossein Salami, Lieutenant General Ali Shadmani, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, along with other martyred commanders, martyred scholars, and our civilian martyrs—women and children—became shining suns and beacons of guidance on this battlefield. They proved that martyrdom in defense of the homeland and the Islamic Revolution is the path and ultimate end of every true servant of Allah.

We express our sincere appreciation and respect to the Iranian people—especially the esteemed families of the martyrs—to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (may his shadow endure), to the Grand Religious Authorities, scholars, the heads of the three branches of power—especially the president and members of the esteemed government—academic elites, the diplomatic corps, national media, virtual space activists, political parties, and medical and relief teams. All these groups stood alongside the Armed Forces and etched their presence in the pages of bright history.

The Iranian people, continuing the values of the eight-year Sacred Defense, offered in this victorious historical confrontation a radiant image of national dignity, the spirit of resistance, and internal cohesion to the world. The result of this unity and effort was a living embodiment of a powerful Iran and a decisive rejection of the calculations of global arrogance against the Iranian people and the sacred Islamic Republic.

The calm, wisdom, and steadfastness shown by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution from the very first day of this imposed war in mobilizing a nationwide stance against the aggressors represented a growing asset that emphasized the unique role of Imamate in unifying the Islamic system and reminded us all of its value. With such a great nation and under the leadership of such a noble guide, the sons of the Armed Forces gain the courage to embark on a civilization-making historic battle.

The IRGC finds itself unable to fully describe and do justice to the sincere, unique, and historic sacrifices of the Armed Forces—especially the valiant fighters of the Aerospace Force, the missile units, the brave Basij, the anonymous heroes in intelligence, and the defenders in the air defense units. For these sacrifices and these fighters, martyrdom remains the only true recompense.

Among the most prominent achievements in this phase of punishing the aggressors, and clear indicators of the misery of the Zionist terrorist killers and their bloodthirsty backers, are the following:

  • Reinforcement of national unity
  • Increase in social capital
  • Deepening trust in the Armed Forces
  • Strengthening the spirit of self-reliance
  • Exposure and dismantling of internal sabotage networks
  • Elevation of Iran’s status in the hearts of the Islamic Ummah
  • Gaining international support for the justice of the Islamic Republic's cause and condemnation of the Zionist army's aggression
  • Collapse of the illusion of regime change in Iran
  • Preservation of the pillars of power in the nuclear program
  • Protection of defensive and missile infrastructure
  • Destruction of the enemy’s multi-layered and costly air defense myth
  • Deepening the crisis of the entity’s survival in occupied lands
  • Discrediting the myth of the “invincible Zionist army”
  • Reviving hope in oppressed peoples to continue resisting global arrogance

The entry of the already-defeated, criminal American army into the battlefield to rescue the pitiful soldiers of the Zionist army failed to shift the battlefield dynamics or undermine Iran’s upper hand. The retaliatory missile strike on the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar, as part of Operation “Glad Tidings of Victory”, delivered a fresh message of Iran’s strength—and the enemies understood that message clearly.

It is worth emphasizing that the initiator of the imposed war was the Zionist terrorist army. Yet its end was penned by the valiant sons of the people in the Armed Forces—particularly the IRGC Aerospace Force—in the 22nd wave of Operation "Truthful Promise 3", whose final strike was so devastating that the “cries for a ceasefire” erupted from the throats of the savage Zionist regime and the delusional president of America.

Once again, relying on Allah Almighty, we pledge to the heroic Iranian people and the noble families of the martyrs that we shall never tire nor falter in pursuing the two fixed and strategic goals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:

1. The expulsion of occupying America from the region 2. The destruction of the Zionist child-killing entity

True peace and stability in the region depend on the fulfillment of these two blessed objectives. We will not loosen our grip on the enemy’s neck—and we will continue to punish it without pause.

"And victory is only from Allah, the Almighty, the Wise." — Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps June 26, 2025

https://t.me/mmirlb/31898

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[-] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago

Iran just launched another missile salvo???

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[-] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

The only way a ceasefire holds until ~~2024~~ 2028 is if Iran makes Trump put some of his own money up as collateral and it's held by a party that will actually give it to Iran should the ceasefire be broken by the US or Israel.

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[-] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago

Within the dark night of nothing ever happens, it appears that something is happening after all. Or not. New launches from Iran towards the Entity, apparently loud explosions, who the fuck knows what's going on.

[-] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

it wasn't terribly unlikely that Trump would do a big bombing, of irrelevant actual effectiveness, and try to walk off with a win. but an outstanding question was, how would the Americans respond to continued fighting? wouldn't the neocons find a way to force Trump back into the conflict?

isn't this result likely a recognition that, even if Iran could win the attritional war with (just) israel, the probability was prohibitively high that tiny Marco wouldn't sit on his baby hands and let missiles keep crashing into telaviv?

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[-] [email protected] 35 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

I don't know if the article is worth reading. I posted this mainly due to the image. It makes me laugh.

ft.com - Iran launches missile strikes at US air base in Qatar - https://archive.ph/7XO6o

FT used the image in their Bluesky post and...

Replies disabled

Damn. That's no fun.

Edit. FT's Bluesky posts are odd. It seems only articles about Iran have replies disabled. What the fuck.

[-] [email protected] 35 points 3 weeks ago

My guess is they intend to salami-slice Iran into irrelevance. They'll regularly launch "necessary" strikes that will weaken Iran, take out IRGC generals and planners, take out missile production, take out nuclear program stuff and just suppress them and turn up the sanctions heat, more hybrid warfare, prepare sectarian factions to rise up into civil war and then launch that sometime in the next 10 years with an eye towards the next 4 years before they attack China. This will mostly be done by the zionists with a heavy assist from the US via refueling, intelligence, re-armament, etc.

It will be Syria and Libya playbook as many including myself have said before. They will use ethnic minorities and they will use surgical strikes to weaken the Iranian government by taking out key figures in fighting this insurgency. ISIS will pop up again conveniently doing the west's work for it, perhaps a branch of Al Qaeda as well.

Frankly it may be Iran is already doomed. They're surrounded by zionist collaborator nations like Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, etc filled with troops who would fight on the side of the US and the entity, filled with anti-air batteries, filled with US troops and bases. Their threats of closing the strait would harm China and other multi-polar powers at least as bad if not much worse than the US and hurting Europe can hardly be seen as a goal as they are gluttons for pain as we've seen with Ukraine and will happy destroy what's left of their industry and transfer the wealth to the US on command. With the collapse of their allies in Syria and Hezbollah/Lebanon and with Hamas already fighting as hard as it can they may simply not have much they can actually do that isn't going all in and provoking the US to immediately destroy as much of their standing military as they can.

Things are looking not great for the resistance. If Iran falls that's another dagger at Russia's belly and contention of the Caspian sea by NATO, it's the final domino in blocking China's belt and road and making it irrelevant for maintaining China as anything but a very regional north-east Asian power very susceptible to a sea blockade and embargo. I feel at this point China is perhaps being foolish or at least recklessly playing right up to the line but maybe they know more than I do. We must also acknowledge Ukraine has held out better than many of the hopium boosters were saying they would even a year and a half into the conflict and there is a chance that their lines never truly break and result in a rout for their army. That Russia by next year perhaps secures the oblasts that were historically Russian and voted to join Russia and at that point sues for peace without denazification, without disarmament of Ukraine, and without a solid commitment from the west they won't eventually try and incorporate that rump state into NATO or reignite the conflict. I can't help but wonder if part of the point of Trumps alleged attempted rapprochement with Russia is just to buy time and fool Russia again like with the Minsk accords, to prevent Putin from committing to an offensive when Ukraine is most weak and western production can't keep up and keep that conflict burning longer without straining NATO arms production.

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[-] [email protected] 35 points 3 weeks ago

It'd be easy for me to be disappointed in Iranian leadership for seemingly accept some sort of deal/ceasefire, but they're in a tough position really. The optimist in me feels like they had placed enough pressure on Israel to actually knock them back. Maybe they couldn't achieve an outright military victory, but they had thoroughly disrupted day to day Israeli economic and day to day activities in a way that would probably have hurt them in the long run. The pessimist in me feels like they were in a dangerous place with American hawks baying for Iranian blood, and of course with the Zionazis already doing quite a lot of damage themselves. In the end I can only hope that they stay on their toes and don't let this ceasefire lull them into a false sense of security the way its seems some of the previous deals and diplomacy has.

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[-] [email protected] 35 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Bad news guys, Israel didn’t listen to Trump calling for peace

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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
178 points (98.4% liked)

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